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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 268
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/18/2005 3:19:22 PM | Message Detail
Even when played with a keyboard, there are very few games that compare with Super Mario 64. I really need to find a way to play the DS version sometime.....



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

SFF Adjusted Summer 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/33

Summer 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/32

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
---
Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: transience | Posted: 10/18/2005 3:25:47 PM | Message Detail
I could name several games that compare.

by several, I mean like a hundred.

(burn!)

---
ice age coming ice age coming
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 10/18/2005 3:29:23 PM | Message Detail
Super Mario Sunshine > Super Mario 64

*runs*
---
Jman_gamerX8 has owned us with his sexy plumber bracket.
From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 10/18/2005 3:29:39 PM | Message Detail
DS version was decent...
---
My DS broke RIGHT when all these good games are coming out! Damn!
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
From: transience | Posted: 10/18/2005 3:32:04 PM | Message Detail
I will take crap for this one:

Lost Levels > World > 2 > 1 > 3 > Sunshine > 64.

---
ice age coming ice age coming
From: therealmnm | Posted: 10/18/2005 3:34:34 PM | Message Detail
Super Mario Bros 3. > Super Mario World >> Super Mario 64
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/18/2005 3:36:15 PM | Message Detail
SM64 >or= SMW > SMS = SMW2:YI > SMB3
---
Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/18/2005 3:37:26 PM | Message Detail
As long as we agree that Super Mario World is the best Mario game, it looks okay.
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durango: That's the reason I've not been logging on 5 times a day, ever since I got it yesterday.
DarkLazarus: At least something good came of DBZ.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/18/2005 3:37:58 PM | Message Detail
SMB3 > SM64 > SMW > SMW2 > SML2 > SMBLL > SMS > SML > SMB2

I think that covers it.
---
pi
From: Prometheus321 | Posted: 10/18/2005 4:07:05 PM | Message Detail
last contest > this contest

and since your talking about it

SMW > Super Mario Sunshine > SMW2 >= SM3 > 1 > 2

Never played 64, guess I'm missing out :(
---
Jman_gamerX8 beat me silly in the Guru contest, and that makes me a sad Panda.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 10/18/2005 4:16:57 PM | Message Detail
This contest is rather dull actually. But go Tecmo Super Bowl!

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005...and Jman_gamerX8 is my daddy!
Trivia XVI: The Weather Channel
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 10/18/2005 4:47:31 PM | Message Detail
Go Timesplitters 2 and Eternal Darkness!
---
"The mailman once gave me a package. I opened the package and screamed. There was a small child inside. I am the mailman."
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 10/18/2005 4:48:40 PM | Message Detail
Shadow Hearts Covenant > Any Mario game.


KB
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 10/18/2005 4:49:37 PM | Message Detail
Most Mario games > Shadow Hearts.

But SH is cool.
---
"The mailman once gave me a package. I opened the package and screamed. There was a small child inside. I am the mailman."
From: transience | Posted: 10/18/2005 4:52:22 PM | Message Detail
all SH games > all Mario games.


---
ice age coming ice age coming
From: Prometheus321 | Posted: 10/18/2005 8:15:03 PM | Message Detail
Zombies ate my Neighbors & Beyond Good and Evil > most mario games > shadow hearts
---
Jman_gamerX8 beat me silly in the Guru contest, and that makes me a sad Panda.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 10/19/2005 2:53:56 PM | Message Detail
Which sorta explains why Ganondorf did better when, 2003 fluke aside, he was always the weaker one.

2k4 Ganon is stronger than 2k3/2k4 Bowser, isn't he? Assuming constant Alucard from 2k3 to 2k4.

And Link wasn't in this contest either, so Ganon should've overperformed just as much.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/19/2005 2:55:55 PM | Message Detail
There's no real way to find out, given how Bowser ran straight into Mario in round 2. But Bowser DID give Guybrush a slightly better pounding than expected... then again, basing anything off fodder is seriously wrong.
---
The NES came close to the Master System, but the SNES pretty much got its ass handed to it by the Genesis. They never recovered. -Smurf
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:01:44 PM | Message Detail
You told me not to, but I'm bringing up SSBM: considering Bowser didn't (or barely) SFF'd Yoshi and Kirby's generally been stronger than him, it would make sense that Kirby would resist SFF. Then, when Kirby had a new recent well-received game on the DS and being vastly prefered in SSBM than Bowser (not to mention also being in SSB while Bowser isn't), I think it's a good theory (though not foil-proof by any means). Yes, Yoshi has the same SSB/M advantage over Bowser that Kirby did, but SSBM is bigger now than what it was in 2003 and it's arguable that Kirby is liked as much or moreso as Yoshi (at least amongst my friends; I don't know about the GameFAQs population as a whole).

As for Mega Man SFF'ing Yoshi more than Link did, Link also SFF'd Yoshi more than Bowser did. While that doesn't make any clear point, one could see that as Bowser not being good with SFF-matches (although he held his own against Mario in 2k4, thus making this even more confusing if this is true).
---
Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:02:58 PM | Message Detail
I highly doubt that Bowser is stronger than Ganon, given that they faced the same opponent two days apart from each other and Bowser did worse.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, Advance Wars 2, We <3 Katamari
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:04:19 PM | Message Detail
That actually makes a bit of sense, except for one small thing: Kirby unleashed a nuclear holocaust on Tidus the round before. So I'd be inclined to think it's more Kirby's natural strength increase and less him moving up the Nintendo lover's list of priorities.
---
The NES came close to the Master System, but the SNES pretty much got its ass handed to it by the Genesis. They never recovered. -Smurf
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:05:18 PM | Message Detail
I highly doubt that Bowser is stronger than Ganon, given that they faced the same opponent two days apart from each other and Bowser did worse.

Did you even read the post? I explained why this was the EXCEPTION and not the RULE.
---
The NES came close to the Master System, but the SNES pretty much got its ass handed to it by the Genesis. They never recovered. -Smurf
From: Pathetique | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:05:35 PM | Message Detail
I would pick Bowser head-to-head against Ganondorf, no questions asked.
---
We have here a lot of candle holding, with Julius holding the largest candle. ~The Man FKA Heroic Mario
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:09:25 PM | Message Detail
"I believe Vincent went nuclear in a matter of weeks, so no problem there."

And anyone who thinks that is just friggin' nuts, far as I'm concerned. There's no reason to actually believe that, and AC didn't have time to have a heavy effect, so don't try playing that. Heck, I'd been looking forward to it mysel fand didn't see it until after the contest was over, and Vincent's screen time was so small I doubt highly it would have boosted him much. The people who were replaying FF7 because they were hyped for AC would have been here long before it was a vailable, the people replaying it after AC wouldn't have made it here until after the contest was over.

Oh, and Slow, I prefer Kirby to Bowser by quite a bit.
---
Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:10:31 PM | Message Detail
For what it's worth, using an unadjusted Mega Man and an adjusted Squall, Tidus gets 42.88% on Kirby. Coincidence, probably, 'cuz Mega Man 2k4 being unadjusted doesn't feel right when ya consider 2k3 and 2k5...but it might be worth noting.
---
Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:12:51 PM | Message Detail
Liek, duh. 48% of GameFAQs does.

What I'm talking about is, I don't get why people would vote Bowser massively against opponent X, while Kirby would get more moderate support, then when comes the time for the two to face they're all OMGKIRBYMUSTVOTE.
---
The NES came close to the Master System, but the SNES pretty much got its ass handed to it by the Genesis. They never recovered. -Smurf
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:14:16 PM | Message Detail
I think FF:AC is the most popular reason to think Vincent over-performed, but I don't think it's the best reason. I've stated four plausable reasons (FF:AC, FF7 > CT, generation advantage, and SFF-matches with Vincent has higher correlations of people who realize who he is), and I think the four coupled together is enough to explain the issue.
---
Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:15:21 PM | Message Detail
Megaman 2004 unadjusted doesn't make sense when considering 2003? Where do you think that adjusted number comes from, Dr. Light's buttcrack?

Although it's safe to assume Megaman did drop a bit this year. Almost lost to a juiced up Sonic, then failed to put up a big challenge against a Crono that deflated back to his 2003 level...
---
The NES came close to the Master System, but the SNES pretty much got its ass handed to it by the Genesis. They never recovered. -Smurf
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:24:46 PM | Message Detail
Megaman 2004 unadjusted doesn't make sense when considering 2003?

Unless I'm looking at something wrong, isn't his value in 2k3 about 4% higher than his unadjusted value in 2k4 when compared to BL?
---
Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:27:44 PM | Message Detail
Oh, you said unadjusted. All the previous talk about Vincent flat-out confused my reflexes, since it's just about the first time we need to adjust a character downwards in a non-retroactive way.
---
The NES came close to the Master System, but the SNES pretty much got its ass handed to it by the Genesis. They never recovered. -Smurf
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:30:24 PM | Message Detail
generation advantage

WTF is generation advantage? 16-Bit is the most widely-acclaimed generation on GameFAQs by a fairly large margin, according to the polls we've seen. And why would there be more "generation advantage" in Crono vs. Vincent than any other match? Their games were only released a couple years apart.

And there were over 100,000 torrents of AC downloaded before the contest was over, not to mention all the other ways of downloading things. I'd assume that GameFAQsers would be more computer savvy than the average person, so that number's even more significant than it would seem at first glance.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Pathetique | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:32:58 PM | Message Detail
I'm pretty sure that it was long ago established that 32/64 is the strongest generation.
---
We have here a lot of candle holding, with Julius holding the largest candle. ~The Man FKA Heroic Mario
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:33:56 PM | Message Detail
16 has the most big names, but 32/64 has THE biggest names. Your call.
---
The NES came close to the Master System, but the SNES pretty much got its ass handed to it by the Genesis. They never recovered. -Smurf
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:34:54 PM | Message Detail
I'm pretty sure that it was long ago established that 32/64 is the strongest generation.

There's no evidence at all that 32/64 is strongest. Sure it has the two strongest games, but after that, there's not much to impress. I don't have the polls handy, but I think they were in the last topic, and I'm sure that TRE could provide them.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Pathetique | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:36:02 PM | Message Detail
16 has the most big names, but 32/64 has THE biggest names. Your call.

When you do the comparison from games to characters, 32/64 EASILY takes it. I'd call Link's strength much more from Ocarina of Time than from LttP or LoZ.
---
We have here a lot of candle holding, with Julius holding the largest candle. ~The Man FKA Heroic Mario
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:36:42 PM | Message Detail
Did you even read the post? I explained why this was the EXCEPTION and not the RULE.

I ignored it out of finding the point to be ridiculous. Bowser being "Super Mario Bros" and Ganon being "The Legend of Zelda" only when they face Sephiroth makes absolutely no sense to me. I'm an all or none kind of guy.

Besides, if you believe that point, wouldn't that make Ganon stronger anyway? The Zelda series is more popular around these parts.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, Advance Wars 2, We <3 Katamari
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:37:26 PM | Message Detail
And there were over 100,000 torrents of AC downloaded before the contest was over, not to mention all the other ways of downloading things. I'd assume that GameFAQsers would be more computer savvy than the average person, so that number's even more significant than it would seem at first glance.

I believe RPGuy said that 150k torrents were downloaded by the end of the contest.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, Advance Wars 2, We <3 Katamari
From: Pathetique | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:38:22 PM | Message Detail
Sure it has the two strongest games

Vincent is from FFVII. That's gotta count for SOMETHING.
---
We have here a lot of candle holding, with Julius holding the largest candle. ~The Man FKA Heroic Mario
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:38:44 PM | Message Detail
It's not only because they faced Sephiroth, it's because they were facing him in a villain contest environment. Unlike what you might think, voters weren't oblivious to that. Put these three in matches in a regular contest, and I guarantee Seph breaks 60% on both guys pretty comfortably.
---
The NES came close to the Master System, but the SNES pretty much got its ass handed to it by the Genesis. They never recovered. -Smurf
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:46:23 PM | Message Detail
Being from a newer game can't hurt his cause and can only help. Whether it actually DOES help or not, that's debatable, but being from a newer game on a more recent generation of systems can't hurt his cause.
---
Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: Pathetique | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:47:48 PM | Message Detail
being from a newer game on a more recent generation of systems can't hurt his cause.

Small note that FFVII is still playable in its original form on the modern day PS2. Chrono Trigger can only be played on an SNES or on the total crap PSX port.
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We have here a lot of candle holding, with Julius holding the largest candle. ~The Man FKA Heroic Mario
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:51:55 PM | Message Detail
Which, to be fair, said port can also be played on the PS2 I assume.

Regardless, yes, that's true, though I'm not gonna focus any arguments around that minor point.
---
Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:52:13 PM | Message Detail
Before I catch up with the topic, I want to touch on Kirby/Bowser rSFF.

I think it was very much a possibility, although I'm not calling for loads of rSFF. Kirby proved his strength enough by destroying Tidus. But as for Bowser/Kirby, some people call it overperforming, some people call it the "underdog factor". I think it is very much a possibility. Most people were expecting Kirby to lose in the match. Why wouldn't fans of both vote for Kirby to see him do well on his way out?

Besides, Bowser vs. Kirby even LOOKS like the classic Bully vs. Underdog situation. How many people actually support the bully? It's freakin' KIRBY! I'm betting many figured Bowser would take it with ease in the first place and voted Kirby. And once again, not enough to make a significant dent. Maybe a 1-2% overperformance. I mean, didn't Tidus RISE from last year? If anything I would think his popularity was on the downswing...
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:58:31 PM | Message Detail
Vincent is from FFVII. That's gotta count for SOMETHING.

Yes, I'm pretty sure that's why he mentioned the FFVII > CT factor separately.

Small note that FFVII is still playable in its original form on the modern day PS2. Chrono Trigger can only be played on an SNES or on the total crap PSX port.

Good point, the CT port came out far more recently than FFVII did, and in the Year 2005, still sells more than 5000 copies a month. Compare that to something like MGS2, which was under 100 copies per month the last time I checked (February, I think).
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 10/19/2005 3:58:53 PM | Message Detail
Or by emulation, which I'd wager to say is the most common way it's played.

Oh, and while AC may have sent up 150k by contest's end it wasn't but 1/3 of that at most by the time Vincent had his match. If AC made a huge difference why doesn't Cloud show it? You can argue it helping Seph and Vincent all you like, but when the star of the damn thing looks a little worse for wear against the same opponent he faced down a year before without the extra ammo there is a problem. At best that means Cloud was unmoved and Link increased a little bit. If Cloud didn't change and he has 10 times as much screen time in AC than Seph and Vincent combined (and even more so in FF7) then neither did those two.
---
Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 10/19/2005 4:01:42 PM | Message Detail
"I'm betting many figured Bowser would take it with ease in the first place and voted Kirby."

Looking at it from the aspect of a casual voter I'd actually expect Kirby to win, not Bowser. I highly doubt either side gained a lot from "pity" votes like that.
---
Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: therealmnm | Posted: 10/19/2005 4:03:11 PM | Message Detail
It's not only because they faced Sephiroth, it's because they were facing him in a villain contest environment. Unlike what you might think, voters weren't oblivious to that. Put these three in matches in a regular contest, and I guarantee Seph breaks 60% on both guys pretty comfortably.


And it was still a popularity contest. It didn't say Best.Villain.Ever. And even if that were the case, as much as I'd like to have faith in the GameFAQs demographic, I seriously doubt that they would abandon Sephiroth, the third most popular character on this site, for Ganondorf and Bowser because they think the latter two are better villains...

I know the point where you're getting at though. Call it anti-votes because Sephiroth's win was inevitable, but to say that they were proxies for the Zelda and Mario series is a bit farfetched.

I just think that Liquid flat out bombed. That seems to be the only anomaly. The rest of it looks like anti-votes to me. Even looking at Vergil and Ramirez in retrospect, I'm beginning to believe that they were benefactors of anti-votes as well.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/19/2005 4:05:04 PM | Message Detail
Thing is, what Frog ended up doing this year validated the Liquid match entirely.
---
The NES came close to the Master System, but the SNES pretty much got its ass handed to it by the Genesis. They never recovered. -Smurf
From: therealmnm | Posted: 10/19/2005 4:06:43 PM | Message Detail
Looking at it from the aspect of a casual voter I'd actually expect Kirby to win, not Bowser. I highly doubt either side gained a lot from "pity" votes like that.

I could say the exact opposite as a Bowser fan. All in all, I'm still not calling for tons of rSFF. I'm just saying that it was a good possibilty that Kirby overperformed by a few percent.

Nice point on Cloud and AC by the way...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Pathetique | Posted: 10/19/2005 4:09:02 PM | Message Detail
Like I said, if you play FFVII on PSX/2 and play Chrono Trigger on PSX/2, you're going to prefer FFVII. Anyone who prefers the FFC-load Chrono Trigger is lying.
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We have here a lot of candle holding, with Julius holding the largest candle. ~The Man FKA Heroic Mario
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