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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 264
From: transience | Posted: 9/23/2005 5:32:15 PM | Message Detail
oh, I've heard people complain about it, just throwing in "lol" for good measure. I also saw them "lol" over Yoshi being below Luigi. this one made me giggle.

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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/23/2005 5:35:44 PM | Message Detail
Well, DK wasn't too great against Vyse... but I digress.

The fact is, Ulti is right when he says people care too much about these things. (The fact that he turns out to be one of these is a different issue altogether.) (Why, I never saw the day where people would be complaining over a 0.41% difference.) There's a good chance Samus would do better on Snake than Mario did, and the reverse also holds true.

I have to ask a question. If we were to adjust the results of all contests retroactively, would people whine as much if Cloud ended up at #2 in 2002 far ahead of everyone but Link despite being robbed by Mario?
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/23/2005 5:35:44 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Shivan Reincarnated | Posted: 9/23/2005 5:40:15 PM | Message Detail
The thing about the Vyse/Laharl match is that there were many voters who didn't know who either character were so it became random voting. While a lot of people didn't vote in that match (Hence having the lowest vote total for 2004) , I'm willing to bet that people just vote despite knowing nothing about either character. I know I've done that. Studies have shown that when people don't any of the options, they pick the top choice. Makes you wonder how well Laharl would have done if he was on top.

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The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.~ Alucard
From: transience | Posted: 9/23/2005 5:40:24 PM | Message Detail
I'm not going there. I was thinking earlier today, though, about making a game bracket, and putting this match in:

(1) Final Fantasy VII
(16) Super Mario Sunshine

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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: transience | Posted: 9/23/2005 5:42:03 PM | Message Detail
even better yet, in a match like that, people would bracket vote. I think Vyse would still win if he was the lower seed because his game is better known, but it would be a lot, lot closer.
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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/23/2005 5:45:10 PM | Message Detail
The reason people aren't complaining is that Vyse's position, is because while seemingly low, it at least doesn't directly contradict any of the current contest's results.

Well, it puts him below Ramirez. I don't exactly agree with that.
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"What's going to happen to this Planet?"
"Who knows...That's up to you, I guess."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/23/2005 5:45:22 PM | Message Detail
Lloyd/Wesker had the worst star power in a contest ever aside from a few 2002 matches... think this could've made a difference?
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/23/2005 5:52:33 PM | Message Detail
I doubt Vyse is that much stronger than Ramirez. When they're both that low on the food chain it doesn't matter as much.

That's the problem with people like Vyse though, once you reach a threshold, the stronger your opponent looks, the stronger you look. What do I mean by this? I mean that Vyse gets 21% on Tifa, yet he gets 20% on Cloud. I don't think that means he dropped, it's just how Vyse's small fanbase works. Against Link he'd probably get around 20% as well.

That's why I wouldn't even try to use the X-Stats in fodder vs fodder matches, I doubt they're truly accurate at all.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Jman_gamerX8 puts not only Lopen's bracket making skills to shame, but also Raiden's... unheard of!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/23/2005 6:37:17 PM | Message Detail
I'm tired so I've only done half of the bracket so far and these are not final yet. You may not agree to some of the changes, but live with it their my stats not yours, but I will take suggestions.

1. Samus Aran - 39.63%*
2. Mario Mario - 39.59%
3. Solid Snake - 33.88%
4. Ganondorf - 31.97%*
5. Zelda - 30.89%
6. Bowser - 30.86%*
7. Kirby - 29.55%*
8. Zero - 29.41%
9. Auron - 29.35%*
10. Ryu Hoshi - 25.32%*
11. Tidus - 25.03%*
12. Vivi Ornitier - 24.98%
13. Yuna - 24.81%*
14. Frog - 23.74%*
15. Sora - 23.54%
16. Riku - 22.95%*
17. Rikku - 22.42%*
18. Ryu Hayabusa - 21.46%
19. Chun-Li - 21.05%*
20. Alucard Tepes - 21.02%
21. Ness - 20.52%*
22. Kratos - 18.70%
23. Carl “CJ” Johnson - 18.41%*
24. Big Boss - 16.75%*
25. Lloyd Irving - 15.73%
26. Joanna Dark - 15.13%
27. Cecil - 14.65%*
28. Albert Wesker - 14.25%
29. Agent 47 - 13.78%
30. King of All Cosmos - 13.75%*
31. Manny Calavera - 10.78%
32. Yuri Hyuga - 10.05%*

* means I made a change

First thing was Samus' division. Yes I know I have her slightly above Mario, but deal with it. I used Ganondorf for these numbers. As for Ness and CJ I used Auron. I didn't bother to change Zero since it looks like he did get weaker. Bowser's division gets taken down by a few points. I may be wrong with this, but using a whole lot of characters suggests that he's around here somewhere. I've thought about changing Sora's 4-pack, but I'm not sure yet.
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Congrats to Jman_gamerX8 for winning the Guru Contest.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/23/2005 6:40:26 PM | Message Detail
Yes I know I have her slightly above Mario, but deal with it.

Never.
---
"What's going to happen to this Planet?"
"Who knows...That's up to you, I guess."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/23/2005 6:41:34 PM | Message Detail
I have just owned us all. Including myself, for not thinking of this earlier.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=23709575
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/23/2005 6:43:23 PM | Message Detail
Does it matter if it's a few percent points off?
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Congrats to Jman_gamerX8 for winning the Guru Contest.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/23/2005 6:44:28 PM | Message Detail
Well, only for year-to-year transition. I posed Snake 2003 = Snake 2005, and built from there.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/23/2005 6:51:02 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/23/2005 6:51:28 PM | Message Detail
I have just owned us all. Including myself, for not thinking of this earlier.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=23709575


Sweet. Now we'll all get perfect scores next year.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where Jman_gamerX8 kicked my ass.
From: cyko | Posted: 9/23/2005 8:30:29 PM | Message Detail
hey Slow, which matches did you adjust to get your version of the stats?

I'm not sure why Zidane has to go. He was in one match, and he most likely got SFF'd right out of it.

that i don't agree with, unless you think that all RPG characters can significantly SFF other RPG characters. Zidane just doesn't have much casual appeal and his fodder-like position doesn't surprise me at all. i say boot him in favor of Bahamut or *sigh* Seifer. even though i personally do not like Seifer at all, he has more contest potential than Zidane.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: angry_hobo | Posted: 9/23/2005 8:32:59 PM | Message Detail
*doesnt read a single post in this topic*

VOTE PAC-MAN FOR CHARACTER CONTEST 06! W00T!

TIME TO SHOW THESE FINAL FANTASY D00DS WHOS BOSS PAC-MAN GO LITTLE GUY GO!

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All hail blazakan and his ability to point out the obvious!~mtpfreak
From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/23/2005 8:58:11 PM | Message Detail
Mm...it really bugs me seeing Link and Cloud lack any boost this year. It just doesn't seem right. Cloud has the AC leak ...Link has the Nintendo boost. I mean, you could say that Sephiroth overperformed against Link again and still assume Cloud beats Sephiroth 56/44. Once again, what if Sephiroth overperformed against Link for the second time?

On another note...how come AC had to have no effect on Cloud or Sephiroth when Sephiroth is expected to beat Bowser 3% worse than he did in the Spring Contest? I mean, there's a good possibility that Bowser overperformed against Seph, but hey...

Ah, well, I'm just glad it doesn't have any effect on the main bracket...

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Jman_gamerX8 beat me in the Guru Challenge! *gives Jman a glass of punch and a slice of cake*
From: cyko | Posted: 9/23/2005 9:04:29 PM | Message Detail
alright, i found the list of the matches you adjusted and how you adjusted them, Slowflake. but, i have a few problems with some of them:

- Samus (explained above)


well, i don't really know what the best way to adjust Samus would be, so your guess is probably better than mine on that one.

- Sora (2k4)

i'm still not convinced that Sora was really SFF'd be Snake, but if he was, then his 2K4 numbers would make sense to use as an adjustment.

- Yoshi (Laharl 2K4)

why adjust Yoshi through Laharl, who is supreme fodder? it seems to me that it would be better to adjust Yoshi through his performance against Luigi last year. not by re-using the same number, but by taking Luigi's number value from this year and seeing what Yoshi's value by getting 54.48% against Luigi. if Luigi, Bowser, and Mario have all increased, it makes sense that Yoshi would most likely improve by the same proportion as the other Mario series characters.

- Pac-Man (2k2)


three year old numbers for Pac-Man? come on. i suppose it's better than his 2K3 or 2K4 numbers where he also suffered SFF. but, what would he look like if we use Ocelot's Spring 2K5 value as constant?

- Devil Division (Squall 2k3)


i'm still not in agreement of Vincent increasing midway through the contest. and even if he did, i don't think i would adjust them through 2K3 Squall.

- Ness (adjusted 2K4)

again, why not adjust Ness through how he did against Auron last year? take Auron's value and see what Ness's value would be if he got 34.96% on Auron this year.

and you didn't touch:

- Ganondorf

with all the other adjustments you made, i do not understand why you didn't adjust Ganondorf with his Spring 2K5 numbers. of the few disagreements i have, this one bugs me the most. Samus doing better than Sephiroth against Ganondorf makes it seem pretty obvious that Ganondorf was SFF'd by Samus and his entire 4-pack should be boosted.

- Dream Division


as strange as Kirby being so close to Bowser seems, i see no evidence or reasons why this Division should be adjusted. therefore, i am glad that you didn't adjust it.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/23/2005 9:20:55 PM | Message Detail
i'm still not convinced that Sora was really SFF'd be Snake, but if he was, then his 2K4 numbers would make sense to use as an adjustment.

I think it's more likely to be Snake's pic-advantage than SFF..

why adjust Yoshi through Laharl, who is supreme fodder? it seems to me that it would be better to adjust Yoshi through his performance against Luigi last year. not by re-using the same number, but by taking Luigi's number value from this year and seeing what Yoshi's value by getting 54.48% against Luigi. if Luigi, Bowser, and Mario have all increased, it makes sense that Yoshi would most likely improve by the same proportion as the other Mario series characters.

Adjusting through Pac-Man (through Luigi vs. Pac-Man) also suggests Yoshi to be at about 29% on BL. We've got two calculations pointing to that...I doubt Yoshi would be lower than that. While Yoshi could be higher, it's best to be conservative, right? Oh, yeah, and maybe Pac-Man increased since last year (or Luigi was underrated last year) since Pac-Man did beat Ocelot. But, we don't have enough evidence for that.

three year old numbers for Pac-Man? come on. i suppose it's better than his 2K3 or 2K4 numbers where he also suffered SFF. but, what would he look like if we use Ocelot's Spring 2K5 value as constant?

How about we just use both methods and average them out?

As for Ness...I don't want to bother with him. He's probably at 21% on BL at the minimum, but with the Nintendo boost, he's probably higher. Maybe we just shouldn't bother, and just know that he could be a decent mid-carder now.

with all the other adjustments you made, i do not understand why you didn't adjust Ganondorf with his Spring 2K5 numbers. of the few disagreements i have, this one bugs me the most. Samus doing better than Sephiroth against Ganondorf makes it seem pretty obvious that Ganondorf was SFF'd by Samus and his entire 4-pack should be boosted.

Huge bias here...but if you assume Samus 2K4 = Samus 2K5 (approx.), and assume no Samus/GDorf SFF, GDorf/Kefka/Diablo would be extremely similar proportionally in both Sp2K4 and SC2K5.

Oh, and I wouldn't adjust the Dream Division, either...I just love seeing the lovable pink puffball so high in the rankings. =p

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Jman_gamerX8 beat me in the Guru Challenge! *gives Jman a glass of punch and a slice of cake*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/24/2005 1:23:05 AM | Message Detail
I ask again, anyone got the stats straight up without adjustments and Seph at his final %?
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Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/24/2005 1:57:51 AM | Message Detail


Characters that need to return

Aeris (Only if Tifa and Vincent are kicked out)

Shadow the Hedgehog (Obviously)

Fox McCloud (Obviously)

Tails (Either him or Amy should be tossed in there)

Bomberman (mmmm.... maybe. He should be in every other year.)

Jill Valentine (No doubt. It's a crime to not have Jill)

Ken Masters (Not a chance. Ryu is more then enough.)

Raiden (I'd rather not. All MGS characters apart from Snake are fodder)

Strider Hiryu (He lucked it in 2002. He would be fodder now.)

Characters that deserve a shot

Rufus Shinra (Not a hope. There are many more deserving FF7 characters then him.)

Falco (This was his year to get in and he didnt.)

Midna (Who?)

Vaan (yes)
Ashe (yes)
(maybe a third FFXII character, depending on how popular it is)

Yoshimitsu/Nightmare (One of them will probably end up playing Sonic in round 1 like all the other cult fighters.)

Sub-Zero (Agreed)

Captain Falcon (People don't like racing games here, but I'd like to see him in it. A refreshing Ninty character IMO.

Characters that need to go

Wesker (Yes)
Lloyd (Kratos before him)
Zidane (Give him a chance without SFF)
Cecil (Obvious)
Terra (Obvious)
CJ or Vercetti (VERCETTI? ARE YOU ****** INSANE?, Why not just throw Master Chief out as well and isolate the mainstream completly?)

Yuri (duh)
Big Boss (duh)
Manny (lol obvious)
Agent 47 (duh)
Sam Fisher (Nah, Sam isn't weak enough yet.)
Kerrigan (duh)
Geno (duh)
Conker (Same as Sam)
Laharl (probably)





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Tombolown'd-I couldn't HANDLE the Tombolo!
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/24/2005 2:02:39 AM | Message Detail
This is crazy trying to adjust the stats.

Characters boosted, you may not like it and it may not be logical but that's how it goes.

Adjusting for Vincent or Kirby is just insane! Leave the x-stats in an unadjusted form and let individuals interpret them any way they want. That's the only fair way.

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Tombolown'd-I couldn't HANDLE the Tombolo!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/24/2005 2:49:33 AM | Message Detail
Since that list was brought back up, I gotta say... I'd have absolutely 0 expectations of seeing a ToS character next year. There's no sense it, considering they failed to impress and they will be another year out of memory by then. Like Felix and Isaac, lost to the contest.
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Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: greatone10 | Posted: 9/24/2005 2:53:04 AM | Message Detail
I could see Kratos Aurion hanging around over the years like Vyse. Lloyd really needs to go though.
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Nominate Jay Solano & Ifnkovhgroghprm for SC2K6!
Andross says: YOU'LL NEVER DEFEAT Jman_gamerX8 IN THE GURU CONTEST!
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/24/2005 2:53:29 AM | Message Detail
Personally I'd like to see Lloyd aganist Vyse.

Tos has a great cult following and don't forget that Lloyd got enough nominations to get a 2nd seed.

He'll be there.
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Tombolown'd-I couldn't HANDLE the Tombolo!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/24/2005 2:53:39 AM | Message Detail
Well, you're crazy, and that's that then.
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Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/24/2005 2:57:40 AM | Message Detail
Second seed with twice the divisions, and with some work any schlub can get into the top half of the bracket (Kerrigan). He'd net a four seed in a regular bracket, and not even that with Clinkeroth in. So then a 5 seed, and badly over seeded at that. We've seen 5 seeds come and go in a year's time before (Viewtiful Joe). If he slips back in it'll be barely.
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Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/24/2005 3:01:40 AM | Message Detail

For future reference, here are the provisional X-Sts version 1.27b beta 2e:


Right.... so you adjusted the entire Devil Division because "They don't look right".

uh huh.....


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Tombolown'd-I couldn't HANDLE the Tombolo!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/24/2005 3:06:07 AM | Message Detail
"let individuals interpret them any way they want."

He has that right, if he wants to make changes he can. If his stats are adopted as the official ones all the better for those of us who do our own work (if his are wrong).
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Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/24/2005 3:09:44 AM | Message Detail
If his stats are adopted as the official ones

That would be a joke. If that were the case they may as well be called the "Adjusted LOL X-stats"

He has a great history of screwing up with predictions in these contests and whatever X-stats he produces should be used as an example of "What NOT to do".

Leave them unadjusted IMO.

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Tombolown'd-I couldn't HANDLE the Tombolo!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/24/2005 3:20:25 AM | Message Detail
I'll work that one backwards and start off by saying your opinion holds very, very little weight here.

Just because he has a "history of messing things up" doesn't mean he's wrong here. In fact, until you've won a contest I'm going to have to say that you're no better on that front than he is. Hell, even if you win a contest that doesn't mean you know everything. There's as much luck involved as there is guesswork and math. Even you have to admit taking Knux over Magus was more fanboyism than anything else, and for as good as you'd have to be to get that right you'd also have to be lucky.

And no, if those were the stats adopted they wouldn't be a joke. The stats are and have always been a guideline. They only help you so much before they wont get you any further. Sometimes you get a match like Kirby/Tidus wrong by looking at them at face value, sometimes you get it right by questioning them liek I did. Sometimes you get a match like Magus/Knux wrong by taking the stats at face value and questioning them, sometimes you get it right by going with your gut and picking the character you feel is better even if it flies in the face of the stats. Then the other 75% of matches you get right because the stats tell you there's only one possible answer even if they are vaguely innacurate about the margin.

If doesn't matter if Samus is slightly ahead or Mario is slightly ahead, it's clear that both of them would smash any non-clinkeroth challenger, but in terms of math and common sense. Unless something happens to make them move dramatically they will win every match expected of them and lose every match expected of them. You have to remember, if the result looks like it'd come down nearly 50/50 it probably won't (Ryu/Bowser).

Besides, if you have a problem with Slow's stats and think he's way off base count your blessings, that gives you a better shot at the gold next time.
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Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/24/2005 3:21:35 AM | Message Detail
"but in terms of common sense..." should be "both in terms of common sense..."
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Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/24/2005 5:42:24 AM | Message Detail
Just because he has a "history of messing things up" doesn't mean he's wrong here. In fact, until you've won a contest I'm going to have to say that you're no better on that front than he is. Hell, even if you win a contest that doesn't mean you know everything. There's as much luck involved as there is guesswork and math. Even you have to admit taking Knux over Magus was more fanboyism than anything else, and for as good as you'd have to be to get that right you'd also have to be lucky.

I know that self-praise is no praise, but I consider myself to have very good judgement in character battles. I tend to give every character a fair chance and not let personal feelings get in the way (For example, I had Mega Man over Sonic, despite what I said on board 8.) As for Magus/Knuckles, I was banking on both a Sonic increase and a CT decrease (due to age). It paid off. I was also banking on Squall being overrated from 2k4. That didn't pay off....... But at least I don't follow the stats idley.

And no, if those were the stats adopted they wouldn't be a joke. The stats are and have always been a guideline. They only help you so much before they wont get you any further. Sometimes you get a match like Kirby/Tidus wrong by looking at them at face value, sometimes you get it right by questioning them liek I did. Sometimes you get a match like Magus/Knux wrong by taking the stats at face value and questioning them, sometimes you get it right by going with your gut and picking the character you feel is better even if it flies in the face of the stats. Then the other 75% of matches you get right because the stats tell you there's only one possible answer even if they are vaguely innacurate about the margin.

There's not a big difference between unadjusted and adjusted in this case. But the x-stats should be used as a reflection of a characters performance in the contest past, not as a progression chart to fit in with other years.


If doesn't matter if Samus is slightly ahead or Mario is slightly ahead, it's clear that both of them would smash any non-clinkeroth challenger, but in terms of math and common sense. Unless something happens to make them move dramatically they will win every match expected of them and lose every match expected of them. You have to remember, if the result looks like it'd come down nearly 50/50 it probably won't (Ryu/Bowser).


That's true, since we all know that, why adjust the stats?


Besides, if you have a problem with Slow's stats and think he's way off base count your blessings, that gives you a better shot at the gold next time.


Pretty much everyone but slowflake will be taking the x-stats with a pince of salt next year so it won't make a huge difference. Beating slowflake was never that difficult anyway. ^_~
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Tombolown'd-I couldn't HANDLE the Tombolo!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/24/2005 5:53:19 AM | Message Detail
Aw, Smurf is angered because no one buys Knuckles at 32% on BL. How cute.

Now, for arguments that aren't fanboyism-driven...

i'm still not convinced that Sora was really SFF'd be Snake, but if he was, then his 2K4 numbers would make sense to use as an adjustment.

I don't think it was SFF either. However, something happened. That kind of thing happens sometimes. Why, hello Link/Magus, Mario/Shadow and Link/Sephiroth I. Somehow I don't see Alucard falling all the way down to Kefka, and Sora failing to score 51% on Riku before SFF.

why adjust Yoshi through Laharl, who is supreme fodder? it seems to me that it would be better to adjust Yoshi through his performance against Luigi last year. not by re-using the same number, but by taking Luigi's number value from this year and seeing what Yoshi's value by getting 54.48% against Luigi. if Luigi, Bowser, and Mario have all increased, it makes sense that Yoshi would most likely improve by the same proportion as the other Mario series characters.

Good point. However, Laharl still projects Yoshi with a decent increase. Luigi got a phenomenal boost, and it's just too shaky to assume Yoshi got the same one. As I said, status mattered a lot this contest, and Yoshi isn't anywhere near Luigi in that department.

three year old numbers for Pac-Man? come on. i suppose it's better than his 2K3 or 2K4 numbers where he also suffered SFF. but, what would he look like if we use Ocelot's Spring 2K5 value as constant?

As I said, this adjustment looked conservative. And to answer your question... Pac-Man ends up just barely below Frog. Ahem. Another adjustment that could work is plugging the Kefka/Pac-Man match in this year's stats, which puts Pac-Man at something like 21.6.

i'm still not in agreement of Vincent increasing midway through the contest. and even if he did, i don't think i would adjust them through 2K3 Squall.

He didn't increase per say, he either spiked because of the leak or rSFFed Crono because of the leak. If we don't adjust Vincent, then Dante got a considerably bigger boost from DMC3 than MC does from Halo 2 (and some people are still arguing the latter), Knuckles, who already gets a bigger boost than Sonic as it is, would skyrocket to 45% on Snake when he got 37% against him in 2003 and 40% twice against the weaker one of 2002 and 2004, and Magus would clobber Sam Fisher worse than last time despite Fisher having two new acclaimed games out since then. (We talked about Fisher choking against Samus yesterday, so you might want to read into that.)

again, why not adjust Ness through how he did against Auron last year? take Auron's value and see what Ness's value would be if he got 34.96% on Auron this year.

From quick guesswork, I believe it's not enough to put Ness higher than my version.

with all the other adjustments you made, i do not understand why you didn't adjust Ganondorf with his Spring 2K5 numbers. of the few disagreements i have, this one bugs me the most. Samus doing better than Sephiroth against Ganondorf makes it seem pretty obvious that Ganondorf was SFF'd by Samus and his entire 4-pack should be boosted.

No, it makes it pretty obvious that the Spring Contest was a total fluke. Once again, look at the characters Ganondorf beat (aside from BB, who we never had a read on). Auron is steady from last year, if you take into account Cloud SFFing Sephiroth. Yuna gets a nice boost thanks to FFX-2, proportional to Knuckles' I might add, and Knuckles' was pretty big.

as strange as Kirby being so close to Bowser seems, i see no evidence or reasons why this Division should be adjusted. therefore, i am glad that you didn't adjust it.

Thank you very much. Although it DOES give Tidus a slight increase (and he ends up just below Magus, in a twist of irony), this shows we have the worst Ryu we've ever seen.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/24/2005 5:54:49 AM | Message Detail
"As for Magus/Knuckles, I was banking on both a Sonic increase and a CT decrease (due to age). It paid off."

I disagree, to an extent. Knux does look better than ever butSonic doesn't, and it doesn't look like CT decreased at all, excepting where it was obvious they were just overated.
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Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/24/2005 5:56:14 AM | Message Detail
If you want to take Donkey Kong over Knuckles then that's your problem...

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Tombolown'd-I couldn't HANDLE the Tombolo!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/24/2005 5:57:40 AM | Message Detail
Are you crazy? I'm not going to. It's just 0.2 points anyway, anything can happen.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: jonthomson | Posted: 9/24/2005 6:01:10 AM | Message Detail
Well, I missed most of the ToC due to a stupidly large workload last week and ridiculously limited internet access, but needless to say that nothing surprising really happened. I suppse the only thing you could say is that Mario ought to have given Sephy more of a run for his money, but that's the contest for you.

I'll hopefully be doing a character-by-character post contest analysis in the next week or so, but ideally I'm going to wait until I've got the internet back at my house so I can do it with some tunes on and beer, which isn't practical in a uni computer room :-(

I assume someone's done the extrapolateds by now, but I can't see them on sc2k5.com or see a link in the first post, unless I'm being blind as usual... can someone point me to a post/site please? Ideally unadjusted and excluding the ToC?
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Jon Thomson - inferior to Jman_gamerX8. Pesky Crono.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/24/2005 6:04:01 AM | Message Detail
Want unadjusted? Here you go. Doesn't exclude the ToC, but the ratios are the same nonetheless.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/detail.php?board=8&topic=23709575&message=259293718
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/24/2005 6:04:47 AM | Message Detail
The gap between Crono and Sonic has been whittled down to almost nothing.

One of them is all about the increasing while the other is on the slide.

Next Year

Sonic > Crono
Knuckles+Shadow will be almost a noble 9'er

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Tombolown'd-I couldn't HANDLE the Tombolo!
From: jonthomson | Posted: 9/24/2005 6:06:30 AM | Message Detail
Cheers. LOL at GFNW > Frog, Kerrigan > Ness, and Ocelot's pure uselessness :-)
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Jon Thomson - inferior to Jman_gamerX8. Pesky Crono.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/24/2005 6:10:26 AM | Message Detail
It's all the work of the Patriots. They just made Ocelot seem like a wimp to make him a joke to the eyes of the other contestants so that next year he will storm through the contest with ease until he faces the final stage of Alucard's plan in the final.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/24/2005 8:18:15 AM | Message Detail
One question, how much more known did Freeman become during Half-Life 2?
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Congrats to Jman_gamerX8 for winning the Guru Contest.
From: Yesmar | Posted: 9/24/2005 8:23:49 AM | Message Detail
I have no idea if anyone's done this yet, but here's the extrapolated standings of the Noble Nine assuming a constant Mega Man.

Link: 54.28
Cloud: 51.63
Sephiroth: 48.92
Mario: 42.98
2K4 Samus: 42.36
Crono: 39.67
Mega Man: 38.60
Sonic: 38.31
Snake: 36.78
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Jman_gamerX8 PWNed me in the Guru Contest. . . .Stupid Cloud.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/24/2005 8:26:08 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/24/2005 8:27:52 AM | Message Detail
We've already done it, but assuming 2003 Snake = 2005 Snake. The main problem is that it put 2004 Samus above Mario, so it took almost a week to find a good adjustment.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/24/2005 8:27:54 AM | Message Detail
How do you plug in BS value to this year's value?
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I got MARIOWNED by Jman_gamerX8, winner of the Guru contest.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/24/2005 8:29:20 AM | Message Detail
What do you mean by that?
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
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