Cloud and Crono seem to be constant this year.
Using different numbers I've concluded that without SFF Samus would lose to Mario 49% to just barely winning.
Pac-Man is now above Kefka (though whether or not he can beat all the characters weaker then him is questionable)
Link has gotten stronger
Bowser may be overrated
Through Auron Ness is ranked below Kefka

Wow, I'd love to see your numbers. I have absolutely none of that stuff.

For Cloud/Crono just take a look at a few matches.
For Samus I used varrious numbers (including Cloud and Crono) and those are the best numbers IMO, who do you have?
For Pac-Man I used the villains contest
For Link take a look at his match against Cloud last year.
For Bowser, right now it's just a theory, but I'm almost sure that he is.
As for Ness, just put him through Auron.
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Congrats to Jman_gamerX8 for winning the Guru Contest.

And Sora wasnt even 1/4 the character as Samus.

Actually, stats would have us believe Sora is 34.15% the character Samus is.

To be less of a smart-ass though, I too am skeptical about Samus being SFF'd that much; I'm not against the idea of Mario rSFF'ing Samus, but I'm not ready to give Samus that much benefit of the doubt (yes, despite her other strong showings). Until further notice, I can't see Samus gettin' more than 52% on Crono, and that's a tough sale for me even then.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.

Strength isn't all there is. Megaman got some serious SFF from Link, that's virtually undeniable now.

Status played a very big part in the Mario/Samus SFF-fest, I'm sure of it. That's because it dictated the contest as a whole. Tossing Kirby aside for a moment (that one is odd and unexplainable), who got the biggest boosts in the field? Luigi, DK and Mario. All characters who were really weak compared to how legendary they were. Especially Luigi. Seeing him in the middle of the pack every ****ing year boggled my mind, then he suddenly exploded, almost doubled KOS-MOS who was supposed to give him a battle to the death, and came close to beating Tifa, who then did good on a boosted Sonic. DK almost managed to beat MC despite a big boost from Halo 2, and Mario was just astonishing in every match he was in, slaughtering Zero, Snake and Crono worse than anyone thought possible before the contest. And I haven't even mentioned Samus yet.

SC2K5 got pwned by the legends of old, there's just no denying it.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Slow, which is why Samus didnt Get SFF'D that hard, Mario was just stronger than her.

and Last year Crono was stronger than Samus.

Give Samus a little a boost, and Crono a little drop and you can see where I think they are close in the stats.


Thus Samus should not be above Mario in the rankings.


KB

I still want an explanation about MC's four-pack; I understand that Face-CATS predicted MC's match nearly perfectly using MC 2k3. I understand that Fisher 2k4 predicted DK's match very well using DK 2k3. I understand that DK 2k3 predicted MC's match very well using MC 2k3. Inform me if I'm wrong on any of those, since I haven't checked them for myself recently...

...then MC gets nearly 39% on Crono when the other characters in his four-pack would have suggested he wouldn't prevent the doubling. Does somebody mean to tell me the other three gained in proportion to MC's Halo 2 boost? Especially Face-CATS, who we just saw in the Spring? How about Fisher, who didn't gain a bit of strength in 2k4 after his second game; now, Splinter Cell: Pandora Tomorrow helped Fisher as much as Halo 2 helped MC?

I'm not a fan of this.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.

For Cloud/Crono just take a look at a few matches.
For Link take a look at his match against Cloud last year.

Cloud: Did worse than last year against Link, and Sephiroth says Link certainly did not go up.
Crono: Underperformed in every match he was in from round 3 on. I'm surprised he didn't take more of a fall in the stats, to be honest.

For Samus I used varrious numbers (including Cloud and Crono) and those are the best numbers IMO, who do you have?

A much better base, namely Snake 2003. The problem with Cloud and Crono is that even using Snake as base a huge chunk of the field boosted dramatically, now imagine what you get with Cloud and Crono. Besides, not only did Cloud only have one match, but Crono was racking up the disappointments late in the contest.

Pac-Man is now above Kefka (though whether or not he can beat all the characters weaker then him is questionable)

I admit adjusting through Pac 2002 looks conservative. But no way is he significantly enough ahead of Kefka to guarantee a win.

For Bowser, right now it's just a theory, but I'm almost sure that he is.

After coming this close to beating the strongest Snake we've ever seen? After the overhyped bloodbath he took Ryu in? Tsk tsk.

As for Ness, just put him through Auron.

Hmm, let's see what that gives. My Auron is at 31.38, Ness got 34.96% on him... so Ness is at 21.94, even lower than my Ness. So yes, below Kefka he goes.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Exhibit A: Last year Crono was stronger than Samus
Exhibit B: but again... I have no logic and intelligence at all.

A perfect match!
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

These days Magus/Fisher would be expected to go to Magus with 63.92%, 2-3 points worse than last time. After getting two games.

My idea is that Fisher underperformed on Samus somehow. After all, Freeman DOES take an ugly dive from 2003 to 2004. That almost makes the HL2 boost swallowable.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Forgot to mention, that's adjusted Magus. Unadjusted Magus would probably beat Fisher WORSE than last time... hint hint.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Keep overrating Samus all you want... She failed miserably this year.

It is ludicrous to rate her above mario when she got destroyed by him.

Its logic.


KB

Crono: Underperformed in every match he was in from round 3 on. I'm surprised he didn't take more of a fall in the stats, to be honest.

He did about expected on Mega Man and around what I expected on Mario (which Snake predicted).
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Congrats to Jman_gamerX8 for winning the Guru Contest.

Of course one would lower their expectations after seeing Crono suck so miserably against MC and Vincent.

She failed miserably this year.

Tossing aside the Mario match for a second...

Yuri: Biggest blowout of the entire contest.
Frog: Slight overperformance.
Ganondorf: Slight overperformance.

If anything, before Mario, she was doing at the very least as good as last year.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Using Tidus, Ryu (through KOS-MOS) and Kirby (through Squall) puts Bowser around 2% weaker.

Screwing around with numbers is fun.
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Congrats to Jman_gamerX8 for winning the Guru Contest.

Alright, let's say Fisher under-performed against Samus by 3 points. That puts Fisher at 17.4% on Link 2k4/5 (assuming Link didn't gain, which I'm not putting past him). This puts DK at 24.69% on Link 2k4/5, about 1.3% higher than DK 2k3 would...fair enough. From there, MC would be at 25.09% on Link 2k4/5, about 0.7% higher than his 2k3 value...fair enough, once again. From there, MC would be expected to get 33.74% on Crono 2k4...NOT fair enough.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.

Duh... you're using Kirby through Squall, a situation that does no longer apply.

But yeah, screwing around randomly is fun. Why, adjusting the Devil division but not the Zebes division puts Kirby in the top 10!
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

By the way, I picked three points for Fisher because Magus would do 2-3 points worse on Fisher this year, but I had first misread it as you thinkin' Fisher under-performed by 2-3 points. Nonetheless, I'm skeptical on Fisher under-performing there anyways.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.

ahh, I wake up and have no match to look at. I also only have about 50 posts to skim through.

onto more interesting topics, when I adjusted my stats I put Samus at her 2k3 value (approx. 38%) and Ganon at his Spring value. that way, the only possible screwup is Frog and Riku. as I've said a few times, I'm not worried about Samus being strong because everyone knows where she lies: she'll lose to Clinkerothio and beat everyone else. it's the characters that are behind her, especially the new characters / characters that we've never had a good idea on that I'm concerned about.

MC is simply nonlinear. he will disappoint against fodder and impress against elites thanks to his huge fanbase and his huge anti-fanbase. if I had to give him an arbitrary value by which to judge others, I'd say 27% or so.

adjusting Vincent is silly to me. I would agree with it if we knew anything about Vincent, but we don't. I would also agree with it if we had one character that looked constant, but Squall's about the only one we can say that about and we never had a good ranking for him in the first place.

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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.

What about Crono 2005, then?

You're also assuming a constant DK. That's your big problem.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Yuri was pretty weak.

And the win over Frog isnt quite as convincing after how Magus and Crono seemed to underpreform from last years stats.

The win over Ganon was impressive, but with the SFF factor maybe not as impressive as it looks.

She probably did better than last year, but that is still not enough to make her stronger than Mario.

She had a new game last fall as well as the DS game.


KB

Let's use Freeman through Max Payne. So we go from Freeman - Sam Fisher - Donkey Kong - Master Chief. Master Chief would be projected to get 36.95% against Crono, about 1.76% off of the real value, but most of that could be explained by using so many values.
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Congrats to Jman_gamerX8 for winning the Guru Contest.

I would agree with it if we knew anything about Vincent

However, we know a lot about characters he beat directly or indirectly, namely Knuckles and Dante.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I'm not a big fan of thinkin' Crono dropped (though he could have), and I'm not afraid to think DK gained, nor MC, nor even Fisher...but I do not believe they all gained proportionately as well as Face-CATS.
---
Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.

So CATS is the big problem, huh? Hehe, he goes from the model of fodder stability to a big stat screw-upper in the span of five months.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

yeah, but you're talking about a Dante with a new game out and a Knuckles that looked stronger than in years past. adjusting off Knuckles puts Vincent at maybe 30% and I don't think he's that weak.

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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.

Adjusting off Squall puts KNUCKLES close to 30%, though, as well as Dante over Ryu. And Vincent still loses a ton of points.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I would also agree with it if we had one character that looked constant, but Squall's about the only one we can say that about and we never had a good ranking for him in the first place.

Squall gaining some, or even rSFF Vince isnt out of the Question.

A big boost for Dante who was already stronger than Knuckles, and a smaller boost for Knuckles could explain rSFFing for Squall.


But it just seemed to make sense that the relative strength of Vince and Squall was equal, legit.


As far as a Squall gain... well If Knucles did boost more than expected and he and Dante were equal, then Squall could have benefited from KH2 hype and CoM.

KB

The idea I'm toying around with, well, I'm not writing it down again. Check the wall of text below the "preliminary final" X-Sts in the last page.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Heh, yeah, CATS sucks for reliability now, but it doesn't change that I don't see him gaining from the Spring Contest, nor do I see SC:PT doing for Fisher what Halo 2 did for MC. Them all gaining proportionately is a killer for me, too.

Drivin' back home from college now.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.

w00t in 3 hours its my turn to talk about the x-stats xD
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*sigh* sonic's never going to be in the final 4 -_-

Mmkay, I'll just leave that to your intention: Charmander's chain starting with GF 2003 has Crono underperforming by 1.76%. I can easily see PT, DK's boost and Halo 2 accounting for that. Although it IS a little odd that they all increased together... then again, they all had excellent reasons to.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Wow, you guys have a lot of free time in your hands.
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Most wanted game: Battalion Wars

but I commented on the spread many times! it was all advertising for your contest.

: D
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
Crushed by Jman_gamerX8 as badly as Link beat Cloud.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Samus should should be above Mario in the stats... she's proven that she is stronger than Mario, when she's not facing him. After all the stats are based on BASE LINK, it's not Base Mario, we know that the stats aren't transitive, but for every character that isn't Nintendo I would bet my ass that Samus would perform better on them than Mario would from the numbers she's put up in the past. I really wanted to see Samus get to Seph, because she's the only character not named Cloud or Link that has an outside shot at taking him down.

---
Explicit Content. Prince of Persia for 2K6!
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Hmwell, you could've said that until this year. Mario was just astonishing in every single one of his appearances this year. I have honestly no clue who'd do better on a common, unrelated opponent.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I've just a couple things to say:

Bowser overperformed against Snake, but in none of his other matches. Adjust the Dream division down a couple percent.

Vincent overperformed against Crono, because he gained strength. Adjust the other Devils down through Squall, but leave Vince the same.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Congrats to Jman, for knowing that on GameFAQs, men are always > women.

Bowser overperformed against Snake, but in none of his other matches. Adjust the Dream division down a couple percent.

And you know that... how? Keeping Bowser there, Ryu's lower than he's ever been. Bowser has been a beast all throughout the contest, no doubt about it.

Vincent overperformed against Crono, because he gained strength. Adjust the other Devils down through Squall, but leave Vince the same.

Actually, Cloud suggests this was either a spike due to the match taking place the day after the leak, or rSFF due to a combination of the leak and facing Crono. The Devils I all adjusted, including Vinny V.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I have no doubt in my mind that it would be Samus.

Let's go through Mario's opponents.

Joanna Dark - New character, nothing to go on.
Ness - Hidden behind SFF, no way to tell.
Zero - Underperformed on every opponent faced.
Samus - Hidden behind SFF, no way to tell.
Solid Snake - Can you tell me what 2K4 Mario would get on Snake? I'm bad with extrapolateds.
Crono - Underperformed on all opponents.
Sephiroth - Same thing again as Snake.

And if Mario does slightly better this year on them, you have to remember the Nintendo boost that all the Ninty characters recieved, and believe that Samus got that boost as well, because if MM can benefit from it, I would think she would be able to as well.

---
Explicit Content. Prince of Persia for 2K6!
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Btw guys, what would Mario be projected to get against Bowser (without SFF) through Snake?
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Xenobi lost everything he owned in Katrina, works 60 hours a week, and still had time to own me!
I just got GURU'D by Jman_gamerX8!

Yuri is fodder, and Ganondorf is Nintendo, so if there's just one match we could judge Samus on at all, it's Frog... and based on a constant Samus, Frog is dragged almost a full point down 2003 MC. However, "almost a full point" isn't enough for me to draw a definitive conclusion.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Btw guys, what would Mario be projected to get against Bowser (without SFF) through Snake?

57.71%. Fairly similar to what we've seen in years past.

Can you tell me what 2K4 Mario would get on Snake? I'm bad with extrapolateds.

51.85%.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Personally, I don't see how you can claim Vincent-Crono rSFF. People keep mentioning Crono underperformed against everybody, which suggests that his performance against Vincent was right on line. Furthermore, your suggestion that AC wouldn't have helped against anyone else is complete speculation. For better or worse, we have no way of knowing Vincent performed inaccurately because he was a first time character.

Plus, there's probably no harm in overestimating him, since by the time SC2k6 rolls around, I'm fairly certain he'll have made up any discrepancies and then some. Because let's face it, with the actual release of AC on top of his first starring role in Dirge of Cerberus, the game would have to completely bomb in order for him NOT to rise.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

People keep mentioning Crono underperformed against everybody, which suggests that his performance against Vincent was right on line.

There's underperforming, and then there's stinking really, really badly. If his performance against Vincent was right on line, Knuckles and Dante, not to mention MAGUS, would be near-elites. Considering where they used to stand (well, except Magus), saying that match went right as it was supposed to is crazy. Why, even with an adjustment Knuckles boosted more than Sonic.

there's probably no harm in overestimating him

Yes there is. If you overestimate him, you overestimate Squall, Dante, Magus and Knuckles.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Yes there is. If you overestimate him, you overestimate Squall, Dante, Magus and Knuckles.

It wouldnt be CRAZY to think they all boosted.

I mean Mean Squall had the KH2 Hype and a GBA game...

Dante had DMC3

Knucles got the overall boost that Sonic and others benefited from. There was the Gems collection too

and Magus while overrated before... may be hard to tell where he falls.


KB

Only probably with that reason for Squall is Sora had the same stuff and went the other way.
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Jman_gamerX8 is sexier, funnier, and all around better guy than I am, because he won the Summer 2005 Guru Contest.

Dante had DMC3

Knucles got the overall boost that Sonic and others benefited from. There was the Gems collection too

and Magus while overrated before... may be hard to tell where he falls.

So what? Knuckles and Dante both get generous boosts WITH the adjustments, and Magus falls just above Tidus... the two have a common opponent... hint hint.

Remove the adjustment, and suddenly Magus beats Sam Fisher worse than in 2003 despite Fisher having two new games since them.

Oh, and hype has never mattered. At all.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Yeah, I forgot that. Sora had all that and still needed a massive UPWARDS adjustment, which still makes Alucard look fairly bad.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Sora didnt look to bad against Alucard though.


Hype doesnt do much I agree... but he did also have a GBA game he appeared in. To go along with a little hype.


I am just saying its not crazy to assume he boosted to 34%

Its not that far of a stretch from the 31% he is at.


KB

Sora didn't look bad against Alucard... it was Alucard that did. And that was BEFORE Sora laid an egg against Snake.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Luigi seems really high too.

will someone Adjust him thourgh Squall and knuckles just for giggles.


KB