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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 263
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/22/2005 3:47:24 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/22/2005 3:53:15 AM | Message Detail
Link, you lazy bastard! Get up out of bed and kill Sephiroth already. Come on! The Great Deku Tree has summoned you!

*Kokiri Forest music starts playing*

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/22/2005 3:54:34 AM | Message Detail
I can't think of any 'provably' wrong ones, though there's the potential for weirdness in the Mega Man/Yoshi/Pac-Man/Ocelot debacle, as well as touching upon Link/Mega Man SFF if that hasn't already been done.

I think Mega's matches with Yoshi and Sonic proved Link/Mega SFF with ease. As for Mega's division, the only debate is whether or not Pac Man was SFFd by Luigi and Yoshi. I'd like to assume a constant Ocelot between Spring and Summer, personally. That probably overrates Wily and Nemesis, but it's not like it matters. I don't assume the stats work on every level, anyway.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Just Got Owned By: Jman_gamerX8, King of Gurus. Congrats!
From: MasterMoltar | Posted: 9/22/2005 4:46:10 AM | Message Detail
Link is winning, but I am not satisfied yet.

Crush him with your morning/day vote Link! <3
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It's MOOOOOOLLLLLTTTAAAARRRR!!!!
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/22/2005 5:35:41 AM | Message Detail
Sephiroth is just acting as the middle man between Mario and Link so we can see how truly powerful Mario is without having to worry about SFF.
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2005: The Summer of Mario
I got smoked by Jman_gamerX8 in the guru topic! Congrats!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/22/2005 5:37:07 AM | Message Detail
Using a constant Crono Sephiroth is projected to get 45.24% on Link.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 9/22/2005 5:47:41 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 9/22/2005 6:28:15 AM | Message Detail
O_O with the way Link's taking the morning vote, this could get him to 56% with the after school vote. He's not taking any crap from Sephiroth.
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Jman_gamerX8: He is so much better at the Guru Contest than you.
ZSB [aX]
From: Phediuk | Posted: 9/22/2005 6:36:22 AM | Message Detail
Well, this is odd. Sephiroth almost=Cloud?
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/22/2005 7:06:05 AM | Message Detail
Somebody must've missed Cloud/Sephiroth on 2k3
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Phediuk | Posted: 9/22/2005 7:20:17 AM | Message Detail
Well yeah, I assumed that Sephiroth would be closer to his 2004 value than his 2003 one.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/22/2005 7:21:57 AM | Message Detail
Really? After he beat down Mario yesterday?
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 9/22/2005 7:28:39 AM | Message Detail
Link still has plenty of time to put some distance between Cloud and Sephiroth. He just blew by 54%, and he can only do better after school. I wouldn't be surprised tos ee him take in 60% per hour.
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Jman_gamerX8: He is so much better at the Guru Contest than you.
ZSB [aX]
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/22/2005 7:34:58 AM | Message Detail
I can see Link break 55%-56%, but Sephiroth will gain a few percent back once the night vote comes.
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Congrats to Jman_gamerX8 for winning the Guru Contest.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 9/22/2005 7:39:17 AM | Message Detail
Cloud himself could only gain back a little more than half a percent with the night vote. Sephiroth won't do much better.
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Jman_gamerX8: He is so much better at the Guru Contest than you.
ZSB [aX]
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/22/2005 8:12:46 AM | Message Detail
Actually, Link's peak percentage was 53.14%, so Cloud gained .7% after that.
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"What's going to happen to this Planet?"
"Who knows...That's up to you, I guess."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/22/2005 8:16:04 AM | Message Detail
Link/Sephiroth at 8:10 -

Link - 18761 (54.29%)
Sephiroth - 15796 (45.71%)
Total votes - 34557
Lead - 2965

Link/Cloud at 8:10 -

Link - 18068 (51.84%)
Cloud Strife - 16788 (48.16%)
Total votes - 34856
Lead - 1280
Link's net percentage from this point: +0.8%
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"What's going to happen to this Planet?"
"Who knows...That's up to you, I guess."
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/22/2005 8:22:38 AM | Message Detail
I've never played GGX#R and don't know who in the world Potemkin is, but regardless, the guy's theme owns ass. Find it, all of you.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Just Got Owned By: Jman_gamerX8, King of Gurus. Congrats!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/22/2005 8:22:47 AM | Message Detail
You know...Plugging in Samus's 2004 value into 2003 puts Squall about a percent off of where he's projected to be this year. If so, it's strange how Squall seemingly underperforms every year. I guess that'd be anti-voting for ya.
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"What's going to happen to this Planet?"
"Who knows...That's up to you, I guess."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/22/2005 8:29:14 AM | Message Detail
Hey now, if it were up to me, I'd replace Vlado and Inviso (whom practically no one wants on the Crew, anyway) with you and Leon.

The comment was merely in jest anyways. Thanks for the props though.


Tifa/Vyse
Mario/Cloud
Link/Magus (and Ganon/Tidus/Magus, perhaps; screw it, I should just make up an EDF 2003 section)
Master Chief/DK


I don't think any of Tifa's matches should be added; Vyse himself has become "odd" by weakening so much. Mario/Cloud deserves it. Link/Magus is good, as well as Solid/Frog. I'd also argue MC/Crono's alot more odd than MC/DK; with Face-CATS/Fisher 2k4/MC 2k3/DK 2k3, that four-pack was predicted near-perfectly...then MC goes to get 38% against Crono when he was expected to be worse than doubled using his 2k3 number. Yes, I know Halo 2 was released, but that was the only match with even a hint of increase...and he rose like a mad-man in that match.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/22/2005 8:33:43 AM | Message Detail
I don't think any of Tifa's matches should be added; Vyse himself has become "odd" by weakening so much.

Yeah, but...weaker than Ramirez? That seems like a bit much, considering how popular Vyse with SoA players.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Congrats to Jman, for knowing that on GameFAQs, men are always > women.
From: XIII_rocks | Posted: 9/22/2005 8:33:43 AM | Message Detail
I know this was being debated 4 pages ago, but I would love to be in the Analysis crew. obviously, highly unlikely. but still >_>
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boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738
Formerly known as Xic...PWNED BY jman_gamer X8 in the guru contest!!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/22/2005 8:33:59 AM | Message Detail
Tifa/Vyse putting Vyse below Ramirez ought to tell you something strange happened there.
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"What's going to happen to this Planet?"
"Who knows...That's up to you, I guess."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/22/2005 9:07:52 AM | Message Detail
I completely agree that Ramirez > Vyse makes no sense...which is where I bring up Bowser, Revolver, Diablo, and Ganon; it looks like all of them have performed under expectations this summer. I haven't checked Wesker for sure, but I think he did about what was expected of him (stat-wise, anyways). Face-CATS either went up proportionately against MC or MC over-performed against Crono while Face-CATS stayed the same (I'm thinkin' that's more the case, though it's hard to tell). Kefka did about what was expected of him, but considering the Ruin Division COULD be under-rated due to Diablo not gettin' linkage against Ganon and Vercetti didn't get his traditional look, depending on how important you think those are, might not make Kefka that trustful to carry over.

So I grabbed for straws on the ones who didn't drop for sure, sue me. Point is, we have four for sure who didn't impress this summer like they did this spring, so now, more than ever, I think Sephiroth was either anti-voted heavily or was adjusted too high...and with a performance like this today and yesterday, being adjusted too high seems nigh impossible. I think we've come to the conclusion that Bowser and Ganon over-performed...maybe Sephiroth suffered anti-voting in all of his matches, starting with his first-round battle with Ramirez.

The only problem of this, of course, is that Liquid Snake looks worse than ever if this is the case...but I think it's pretty possible (not for certain, per say) that everyone who went through Sephiroth that contest became over-rated in some fashion.


Off to Biology now...damn.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 9/22/2005 9:11:14 AM | Message Detail
Damn it,it seems that Sephiroth will not break 45% on Link.Well what can we do,that is how life goes.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/22/2005 9:28:21 AM | Message Detail
but considering the Ruin Division COULD be under-rated

If anything, it's overrated. They've all performed like absolute crap except for Ganondorf, and there are indications that he isn't as strong as the Spring Contest said.

...And Bowser underperformed?
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"What's going to happen to this Planet?"
"Who knows...That's up to you, I guess."
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/22/2005 9:32:29 AM | Message Detail
Nah... Kirby just overpreformed.


KB
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/22/2005 9:33:39 AM | Message Detail
Crushing tidus like he did should show that kirby didn't overperform.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/22/2005 9:37:54 AM | Message Detail
Well, unless you dont believe that Tidus realy is that strong.


KB
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/22/2005 9:40:44 AM | Message Detail
He doesn't have to be very strong. Just a bit above his unadjusted 2k4 level (which is easy to believe given that there was sff in link vs. megaman. It's hard to deny at this point).
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/22/2005 10:59:48 AM | Message Detail
Okay, I've talked to like 40 companies within the past two days INCLUDING Microsoft, interviews and all that other good stuff. Hopefully I'll get my offer from someone within the next month.

I see Link's handling Sephiroth with no problems. What else has been going on today?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Hufsa | Posted: 9/22/2005 11:08:34 AM | Message Detail
Yo, Leonhart, you seem to have forgotten about a certain contest you're supposed to be running. *cough*

And HaRRicH continues to be one of my favourite users on Board 8. He manages to make sense without sounding bitter, pretentious, overbearing or moronic and he's not too stubborn to change his opinion on anything stats-related, or to laugh at himself when his predictions are way off. Good stuff.
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There's always someone better.
From: voltch | Posted: 9/22/2005 11:47:32 AM | Message Detail
well looking at this topic i say that the off season has already started
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Blown to the next dimension by JMan_gamerX8 in the sc2k5 guru contest
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:06:01 PM | Message Detail
After school votes should be now.

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Jman_gamerX8 completely owned the crap out of me in predicting skills. All hail Jman, SC2K5 Guru King!
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:30:30 PM | Message Detail
I missed the last few matches so here are a few myths that I think need to be exposed.

- There was NO Advent Children boost.
There are few japanese on these site and any of those guys who downloaded it are pretty hardcore anyway and far from significant voters. Just because FF7 is 3rd in the Faqs doesn't mean much. It was never far off the top 10 anyway. Besides AC is a DVD, why would many people come to a FAQ site after playing it? Cloud and Seph stayed the same. Vincent didn't oveperform, Crono just dropped a tier, rather then Mega and Sonic jumped up one.

- The Nintendo boost was blown all out of character. An entire company should be painted by the same brush. All I'm seeing is a Mario character boost. (DS?)
Although it had added Kirby. Perhaps it's just that a lot of younger users are using the site. Since the more mature characters haven't moved at all (Samus, Ganon,Link)


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Tombolown'd-I couldn't HANDLE the Tombolo!
From: DarkLink89 | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:34:51 PM | Message Detail
Ramirez being better than Vyse is nothing new. We all know Ramirez is a superior character anyways.

*Goes to play SOA for the 22th time*
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It's official: Princess Peach has bouncing breasts in Super Mario Strikers! http://www.livejournal.com/users/the_gel/14416.html
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:34:54 PM | Message Detail
But Smurf, if you say that..it means Squall would be 8th in the Xstats... and that cant be.

KB
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:36:11 PM | Message Detail
If anything, it's overrated. They've all performed like absolute crap except for Ganondorf, and there are indications that he isn't as strong as the Spring Contest said.

I pointed out the Ganon part already, making the Ruin Division probably over-rated...yet Diablo not gettin' linkage against Ganon while he did in the rest of his matches probably makes the Ruin Division over-rated, too (though it most likely had less of an impact than Ganon being over-rated did...in fact, surely, unless his linkage is much bigger than we imagine). My point was that Kefka may not be the best marking point for us, due to controversies showing he is both under-rated and over-rated, depending on what evidence you look at and both pieces of evidence being reasonable enough to respect.


...And Bowser underperformed?

Considering he got 40.45% against Sephiroth a little over three months ago, compare it to this string: Mario got 43.93% against Sephiroth, Solid Snake got 42.79% against Mario, and Bowser got 49.41% against Solid Snake. In that string of matches (which all happened in just barely over a week), Bowser would be expected to get 37.16% on Sephiroth today.

Now, granted, FF:AC leaked about a week ago, thus probably making FF7 characters stronger, so it's a judgement call if you think Sephiroth gained enough legitimate strength to beat Bowser with 3.29% more of the votes or not...but considering the controversy that is Crono/Vincent had adjustments on the losing side of the battle despite various reasons (including FF:AC and its potential "Sunshine-effect", we'll call it), I'm thinkin' Bowser, like many other villains in the VC, was over-rated. Not to mention Revolver's directly behind Bowser, and I don't even think adjusting Revolver through Yoshi 2k4 brings him back up to his VC-value.


And HaRRicH continues to be one of my favourite users on Board 8. He manages to make sense without sounding bitter, pretentious, overbearing or moronic and he's not too stubborn to change his opinion on anything stats-related, or to laugh at himself when his predictions are way off. Good stuff.

To be fair, I'm still bitter Diablo cost me a perfect bracket AND prizes in the Villain Contest, heh. Nonetheless, I appreciate it.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:38:33 PM | Message Detail
But Smurf, if you say that..it means Squall would be 8th in the Xstats... and that cant be.

That's excluding Clinkeroth. 11th including them.
A 5 place boost for him is hardly anything groundbreaking. Especially when Magus, Zero and Teedus were exposted to being overrated.
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Tombolown'd-I couldn't HANDLE the Tombolo!
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:40:48 PM | Message Detail
I was being sarcastic smurf.


KB
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:48:35 PM | Message Detail
¬_¬

Had I noticed that it was you putting down Squall, I wouldn't have taken it seriously...

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Tombolown'd-I couldn't HANDLE the Tombolo!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:56:42 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth did pretty well throughout this match given who he was up against. Hopefully he can end over 45% with the night vote later on.

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“Damn. Jman_gamerX8 is insane—he kicked my ass in the Guru Contest.”
“This guy are sick!”
From: Heroic Pierre | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:58:05 PM | Message Detail
Are there any unadjusted XStats anywhere?

I wanna see how low Carl Johnson got this year....
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I am the true hero.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/22/2005 1:01:32 PM | Message Detail
While I don't have the final x-stats, CJ would be expected to get 15.43% on Mario and 13.56% on Sephiroth. Then, to add onto that, CJ would currently get 12.24% on Link.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: Heroic Pierre | Posted: 9/22/2005 1:03:29 PM | Message Detail
What about compared to other characters? I'm pretty sure he beat Manny and Yuri, but I'm not sure who else.

Thanks!
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I am the true hero.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/22/2005 1:06:11 PM | Message Detail
I posted this in Ulti's PCA topic, so I think I'll post it here too (about potential Kirby/Bowser rSFF).



From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/22/2005 3:51:42 PM | Message Detail
I would predict Sephiroth could still SFF Squall noticably.


I'm a believer in Kirby/Bowser rSFF due to there being multiple fanbases. There's the Nintendo fanbase, so let's break that down into the two big ones: Kirby's and Bowser's. In Kirby's fanbase, Kirby is most likely preferred. In Bowser's fanbase, Bowser is most likely preferred. Now, Bowser's fanbase may be bigger than Kirby's fanbase (Mario games VS Kirby games, in a sorta-sense), Bowser also failed to SFF Yoshi in 2k3 (at least noticably; it wasn't much if he did). Considering Yoshi's in about every game Bowser's in, you would think Bowser would be capable of SFF'ing him...but he showed he couldn't (much, if he did). Add to it that Kirby has been statistically stronger than Yoshi the past year or two (take it as you will) and has his fanbase much more separated than Bowser, and you have Kirby being able to completely hold his own against Bowser already...

...then, add to it the third big fanbase: SSB/M. Kirby was in both SSB and SSBM, and he is a thoroughly-enjoyed character by the casuals (to my experience, anyways), and the more hardcore don't have a problem with him (to my knowledge). However, Bowser was just in SSBM, and he sucks. Amongst casuals and hardcores that only/mostly pay attention to the SSB/M fanbase, there's next to no reason to prefer Bowser over Kirby...and I think they sided with Kirby like I suspected due to the after-school vote. Both are known to be good with it and both are known to be good with the board vote, so they were both supposed to have similar voting trends...

...however, Kirby took the after-school vote with no questions asked, like Master Hand did in his two matches (without the insane dominance, of course, but they both took the day-vote and MH is as SSB/M-y as you get). Therefore, I think Kirby got some rSFF on Bowser he wouldn't usually get due to SSB/M, and Kirby doing as well as he did against a stronger Bowser than Yoshi faced in 2k3 only makes me feel better about it.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/22/2005 1:09:24 PM | Message Detail
What about compared to other characters? I'm pretty sure he beat Manny and Yuri, but I'm not sure who else.

Thanks!


He might have beaten Kerrigan, it's hard to tell.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 9/22/2005 1:14:26 PM | Message Detail
Sounds like rSFF to me Harrich.

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Explicit Content. Prince of Persia for 2K6!
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: ShadowOwns | Posted: 9/22/2005 1:17:58 PM | Message Detail
HaRRicH= should be in analysis crew meanwhile i will be maknig my own analysis's next contest xD
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*sigh* sonic's never going to be in the final 4 -_-
From: ShadowOwns | Posted: 9/22/2005 1:18:51 PM | Message Detail
w00t class blows, but hey this is better than basic programming in JAVA -.-
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*sigh* sonic's never going to be in the final 4 -_-
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