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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 263
From: transience | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:00:39 AM | Message Detail
niiiiiiiiiiice picture.

78.2%. nice.

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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:00:40 AM | Message Detail
Vote Accepted
Link 60% 48
Sephiroth 40% 32
TOTAL VOTES 80

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: greatone10 | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:01:07 AM | Message Detail
Those pictures must have really stunk.
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Nominate Jay Solano & Ifnkovhgroghprm for SC2K6!
Andross says: YOU'LL NEVER DEFEAT Jman_gamerX8 IN THE GURU CONTEST!
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:01:42 AM | Message Detail
DAMN at seph's %.

I was wrong wrong wrongity wrong.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
Crushed by Jman_gamerX8 as badly as Link beat Cloud.
From: Agent M | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:02:53 AM | Message Detail
Link 64.71% 22
Sephiroth 35.29% 12
TOTAL VOTES 34
From: transience | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:02:56 AM | Message Detail
pictures are up now.

78% isn't really surprising.. the final piece of evidence in the "people paid way too much attention to the Villain contest".
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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: raytan7585 | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:04:45 AM | Message Detail
Vote Accepted
Link 60.66% 37
Sephiroth 39.34% 24
TOTAL VOTES 61

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Score: 143/208 Now: Sephiroth vs Mario
MechaMachine Score: 148/208 Pick: Link over Sephiroth
From: chaos knight | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:06:26 AM | Message Detail
Good job Sephiroth! You are making the entire cast of Summer Contest characters look weak.

Let's hope this goes up to a doubling, for us sadistic ones. >_>
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Future sig pending
...I guess
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:07:03 AM | Message Detail
Link 57.84% 391
Sephiroth 42.16% 285
TOTAL VOTES 676

106 vote lead for Link.


At this time against Cloud, Link had a 69 vote lead and 55%.

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“Damn. Jman_gamerX8 is insane—he kicked my ass in the Guru Contest.”
“This guy are sick!”
From: andaca | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:07:49 AM | Message Detail
Goooooooo Cloud proxy!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:08:27 AM | Message Detail
Heh, the board hates Sephiroth even worse than Cloud. When did they get so reviled here, anyway? Wasn't there a time when they used to even be liked here?

This just makes me wonder even more...HOW DID SEPHIROTH TAKE THE BOARD VOTE FROM MARIO???
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:09:39 AM | Message Detail
I wonder what the results would be if the entire match was left without a pic...

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:10:10 AM | Message Detail
Not only is Seph more hated than Cloud on the board, but he's also weaker than Cloud. Lethal combination.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:11:03 AM | Message Detail
Link increases out to 285... Cloud held him to 82...


Yeah, I knew this would be rough.

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“Damn. Jman_gamerX8 is insane—he kicked my ass in the Guru Contest.”
“This guy are sick!”
From: creativename | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:11:25 AM | Message Detail
Silly, inattentive Ceej...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b66-2.jpg

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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:11:50 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
193---2--------100.0000000
192---1--------100.0000000
191---1--------100.0000000
190---4--------100.0000000
189---8--------100.0000000
188---8--------62.5000000
187---12-------91.6666667
186---24-------75.0000000
185---12-------66.6666667
184---23-------78.2608696
183---29-------75.8620690
182---30-------83.3333333
181---36-------88.8888889
180---40-------82.5000000
179---60-------75.0000000
178---64-------90.6250000
177---57-------91.2280702
176---57-------80.7017544
175---70-------85.7142857
174---72-------81.9444444
173---71-------77.4647887
172---63-------90.4761905
171---75-------90.6666667
170---98-------87.7551020
169---89-------82.0224719
168---97-------88.6597938
167---86-------89.5348837
166---82-------76.8292683
165---100------78.0000000
164---84-------78.5714286
163---86-------82.5581395
162---79-------83.5443038
161---93-------86.0215054
160---96-------80.2083333
159---95-------75.7894737
158---93-------88.1720430
157---114------81.5789474
156---119------88.2352941
155---110------87.2727273
154---137------80.2919708
153---128------88.2812500
152---139------87.7697842
151---128------80.4687500
150---149------81.2080537
149---160------79.3750000
148---184------88.5869565
147---175------85.1428571
146---178------86.5168539
145---185------81.6216216
144---187------82.3529412
143---201------83.0845771
142---212------85.3773585
141---232------90.0862069
140---221------83.7104072
139---225------87.5555556
138---274------82.8467153
137---269------84.0148699
136---259------80.3088803
135---260------85.3846154
134---292------85.9589041
133---334------87.1257485
132---300------84.0000000
131---321------83.4890966
130---315------86.6666667
129---303------84.1584158
128---293------86.3481229
127---307------83.7133550
126---277------83.3935018
125---302------82.1192053
124---312------79.8076923
123---298------84.8993289
122---267------86.5168539
121---268------84.3283582
120---235------80.8510638
119---259------79.5366795
118---261------81.9923372
117---233------81.1158798
116---215------85.5813953
115---252------83.3333333
114---250------82.4000000
113---206------82.5242718
112---254------77.5590551
111---209------85.6459330
110---210------83.3333333
109---234------82.4786325
108---223------88.7892377
107---201------79.6019900
106---200------79.5000000
105---196------76.0204082
104---164------84.7560976
103---189------80.4232804
102---213------77.4647887
101---183------75.9562842
100---201------76.6169154
99----205------80.0000000
98----209------78.9473684
97----219------80.3652968
96----216------78.7037037
95----230------79.1304348
94----233------77.6824034
93----218------78.4403670
92----228------77.6315789
91----194------78.3505155
90----251------77.2908367
89----264------76.1363636
88----293------78.1569966
87----281------79.3594306
86----291------81.0996564
85----274------78.4671533
84----288------75.0000000
83----295------78.6440678
82----309------77.6699029
81----274------77.0072993
80----291------77.3195876
79----333------76.8768769
78----295------77.6271186
77----307------77.5244300
76----281------75.8007117
75----310------78.0645161
74----304------73.3552632
73----324------77.4691358
72----340------74.1176471
71----350------77.4285714
70----356------74.7191011
69----346------75.4335260
68----318------75.1572327
67----377------80.1061008
66----365------71.2328767
65----369------74.5257453
64----315------73.9682540
63----362------73.7569061
62----364------75.2747253
61----344------73.2558140
60----376------70.7446809
59----379------70.9762533
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:11:55 AM | Message Detail
58----385------68.0519481
57----336------70.2380952
56----365------72.0547945
55----325------72.9230769
54----317------74.4479495
53----286------72.3776224
52----316------72.1518987
51----295------68.8135593
50----266------75.9398496
49----260------73.0769231
48----248------72.9838710
47----273------74.7252747
46----240------73.7500000
45----210------73.3333333
44----205------72.6829268
43----210------70.0000000
42----204------68.1372549
41----165------74.5454545
40----159------70.4402516
39----148------74.3243243
38----145------67.5862069
37----129------75.9689922
36----119------73.9495798
35----106------75.4716981
34----90-------74.4444444
33----82-------71.9512195
32----98-------73.4693878
31----55-------67.2727273
30----48-------81.2500000
29----39-------66.6666667
28----45-------75.5555556
27----34-------64.7058824
26----26-------73.0769231
25----23-------78.2608696
24----27-------74.0740741
23----23-------69.5652174
22----14-------78.5714286
21----13-------38.4615385
20----11-------36.3636364
19----8--------62.5000000
18----5--------20.0000000
17----5--------20.0000000
16----13-------38.4615385
15----13-------15.3846154
14----14-------21.4285714
13----5--------0.0000000
12----13-------15.3846154
11----10-------0.0000000
10----7--------14.2857143
9-----4--------25.0000000
8-----11-------36.3636364
7-----16-------25.0000000
6-----22-------13.6363636
5-----38-------5.2631579
4-----37-------8.1081081
3-----31-------3.2258065
2-----3--------33.3333333

A very nice perfroamce by all groups. The overall prediction percentage was higher than the prediction percentage for Sephiroth to take the fodder loaded Villians contest. The -7s, -8, -9, -10s and -11s went perfect. The -12s were one person off perfect. After that we have mid-80s to low-90s for prediction percentages. It goes down as you go down in tiers, but other than the occational blip, it doesn't go below 70 until the large drop off for people with scores of 21 or less. Utterly amazing.

7 people fell off the Top 50 today. KiteMaster, Xbyte, Nikki777, JDuncs17, UNGARMAX, HoCkEyGuY1586, Matka_GF had Mario taking down Sephiroth.
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''
From: creativename | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:12:19 AM | Message Detail
And it looks like Seph is gonna get smashed.

Disappointing; I was hoping he'd approach 45%.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:13:03 AM | Message Detail
Heh, the board hates Sephiroth even worse than Cloud.

Not only is Seph more hated than Cloud on the board, but he's also weaker than Cloud. Lethal combination.


I'm doubt the board hates Cloud more.

In 2k4, Seph won the board vote over Cloud.

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Jman_gamerX8 59.94% 205 * It's not even close folks.
sidharta 40.06% 137 * Fair warning to any who dare to challenge Jman_gamerX8.
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:14:01 AM | Message Detail
This is overly saddening after yesterday. =(
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~*Ex~Tha*~
*is RKO'd by Jman_gamerX8 in the Guru contest*
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:15:03 AM | Message Detail
And it looks like Seph is gonna get smashed.

Disappointing; I was hoping he'd approach 45%.


Meh, he only got 44% on Cloud, how is he supposed to get more on Link, who beat Cloud?

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Jman_gamerX8 59.94% 205 * It's not even close folks.
sidharta 40.06% 137 * Fair warning to any who dare to challenge Jman_gamerX8.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:16:41 AM | Message Detail
Heh. Link only had 52% of the vote that time; hopefully these updates will happen, as opposed to the 58% on the previous update. It'd be nice to see Sephiroth start winning some himself later on.

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“Damn. Jman_gamerX8 is insane—he kicked my ass in the Guru Contest.”
“This guy are sick!”
From: creativename | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:16:44 AM | Message Detail
Sephiroth is probably stronger than he was then.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:17:15 AM | Message Detail
Because Sephiroth has shown us, that no matter what happens, he will not be transitive. Everybody always remembers his 44% against Cloud, but never remembers his 48.11% against him. He's just...weird.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:18:08 AM | Message Detail
You mean to say non-linear.

And it's not hard to imagine him suffering a couple points worth of SFF against Cloud.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: andaca | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:18:10 AM | Message Detail
Assuming Seph gains a percent on Link from this point on, like Cloud did, Mario will end up at roughly 37.84 percent on Link2k5.

X. *******. D.
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:18:10 AM | Message Detail
I can't wait for the morning vote. ;)

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:19:07 AM | Message Detail
Well I guess I'm 18 minutes in to my last 24 hours here.
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~*Ex~Tha*~
*is RKO'd by Jman_gamerX8 in the Guru contest*
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:19:30 AM | Message Detail
"Mario will end up at roughly 37.84 percent on Link2k5."

You forgot the part where Link SFFs him for even more percentage.

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:20:46 AM | Message Detail
No, I don't. I said nontransitive, and I mean it. I don't think this contest has as many problems with linearity as it does transitivity--it's just that the transitivity is extremely difficult to disprove due to the fact that two opponents can never face each other twice in the same contest.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: andaca | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:20:48 AM | Message Detail

You forgot the part where Link SFFs him for even more percentage.


Eh, when Link is already almost doubling the main bracket winner without SFF, mentioning the obvious would be overkill.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:21:09 AM | Message Detail
Heh, FF7 has had eleven victories this year...and NONE of them are any thanks to Cloud.

Just a fun-fact.
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Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:21:50 AM | Message Detail
No, I don't. I said nontransitive, and I mean it. I don't think this contest has as many problems with linearity as it does transitivity--it's just that the transitivity is extremely difficult to disprove due to the fact that two opponents can never face each other twice in the same contest.

You don't seem to understand what transitivity is. Trust me, you mean to say non-linear.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:22:38 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:23:31 AM | Message Detail
I think its funny that if Mario beat Sephiroth, some people would actually expect him to stand a chance against Link. It would take an effort far beyond Marios capability to even keep from getting horribly SFFed. Much less win.

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:24:41 AM | Message Detail
You don't seem to understand what transitivity is. Trust me, you mean to say non-linear.

Linearity is how the statistics from a previous year hold up to statistics in the next year. Transitivity is the actual extrapolation in a particular year, saying that Character A will get X percentage on Character B through their performance on Character C. I don't think extrapolating through Sephiroth holds up well, which is why I say he's not transitive.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:25:57 AM | Message Detail
Sephiroth won that update. o.O
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:26:20 AM | Message Detail
Haha~! Good show Sephy! He just won that update by a single vote! Well at least we'll avoid seeing him get blanked totally. =D
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~*Ex~Tha*~
*is RKO'd by Jman_gamerX8 in the Guru contest*
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:27:05 AM | Message Detail
Ha, well there's hm's one update for Sephiroth.
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
Crushed by Jman_gamerX8 as badly as Link beat Cloud.
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:27:52 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:28:35 AM | Message Detail
Boy, you can't tell you're a Link fanboy, Blade of Evils Bane. *rolls eyes*
---
~*Ex~Tha*~
*is RKO'd by Jman_gamerX8 in the Guru contest*
From: creativename | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:29:27 AM | Message Detail
Linearity is how the statistics from a previous year hold up to statistics in the next year. Transitivity is the actual extrapolation in a particular year, saying that Character A will get X percentage on Character B through their performance on Character C. I don't think extrapolating through Sephiroth holds up well, which is why I say he's not transitive.

This is false.

I'm not going to say too much about this as I've gone into it at length before, and it's tiresome. But I'll give a short explanation.

Linearity is assuming that performance transfers linearly (i.e., in terms of straight percentage proportions). It goes with mathematical linearity because in math, linear things have to do with scalars (coefficients that multiply), which is what is done with our linear extrapolation.

Transitivity is that one character defeating another directly means that they would defeat any other character who the character they beat defeated directly. (in the same year)

Linearity+transitivity would imply that you can compare characters indirectly via percentages.

Linearity is a false assumption but roughly true. Pretty much the only case in which transitivity wouldn't hold is reverse SFF.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:29:50 AM | Message Detail
Well, as I have said earlier, Link will own him much worse than he did Cloud.

And so far I don't think Seph is acting as a Cloud proxy in any way or form.

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Jman_gamerX8 59.94% 205 * It's not even close folks.
sidharta 40.06% 137 * Fair warning to any who dare to challenge Jman_gamerX8.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:30:05 AM | Message Detail
Link > Seph. *RKOs you*
---
Much like priest-sex, Jman_gamerX8 molested gurus by the hundreds.
Congrats, for your dominance has now been compared to priest-sex.
From: Eternal Neo | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:30:09 AM | Message Detail
I must say, this is sure an anticlimactic win to a good contest.

I support either dropping the entirety of the noble nine for next year or just scrapping the character contest entirely and making another game contest with a more even bracket.

If it interests me, I might try to join the analysis crew next year. Yeah, I don't post much, but my inane ramblings could always be used for comedy relief. If not, I'll just do my own analyses...maybe.
---
-Hot Johnny Depp
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:30:51 AM | Message Detail
I like him, but I would gladly trade him winning the contest all the time for Cloud and Sephiroth to fall to low noble nine level. I think its sad that Links the only one who stands any chance at beating them.

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: ChronoLINK | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:31:11 AM | Message Detail
Eh, when Link is already almost doubling the main bracket winner without SFF, mentioning the obvious would be overkill.

Just browsing through for the night.....what's SFF mean anyways?
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W>T>F
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:32:09 AM | Message Detail
Ah, I see. It would appear that I have been miseducated, then. *glares at teachers*
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:32:37 AM | Message Detail
Very nice to see Sephiroth win that update :)

However Cloud went down in % from this point to the finish so Sephiroth finishing above 45% seems possible, but perhaps not likely.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: creativename | Posted: 9/22/2005 12:34:37 AM | Message Detail
Well, you know, something linear has to do with lines.

What are lines about? In y=mx+b terms, lines are about slopes.

m*x here is multiplying one number times another. Linearity, in a broader sense, has to do with coefficients.

Multiplying things together. As opposed to exponents or other functional transformations.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
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