From: cyko | Posted: 9/20/2005 7:05:25 AM | Message Detail
Well, this just underscores the fact that by trying to make the ToC more difficult to predict, CJayC ruined the end to an otherwise exciting Tournament. This match should have been the final.

if he did that, then we wouldn't have Mario/Sephiroth tomorrow, which is still up in the air. i'd take two good matches and a dull final over two dull matches and a close final match anytime.

Right, I stand my my initial "contest ruining" opinion. Unless you think Seph is going to make things close with Link, cyko.
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There's always someone better.

nope. but i still stand by my previous statement. the SC2K5 champ (which turned out to be Mario) had a much better chance at taking Sephiroth than either Link or Cloud. saving Link vs. Cloud until the end would have guaranteed that we had two easy to predict matches.

now, this match is turning out to be a much bigger beating than most of us thought, but it had potential to be a close match.

2 potentially close matches > 1 potentially close match

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

I haven't read everything since I went to bed, but I'm goin' to assume somebody hypothesized that this is a sign of FF:AC's leak having a big effect. If it's not been said, I'm saying it; I'm gonna hold back final judgment since Mario will probably trim the percentage nicely, but I figure this has to be evidence of anti-votes in the Villain Contest and/or FF:AC's leak having an impact, and I don't think enough people anti-voted in the VC to make half of this kind of difference.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

What do you think?
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

I agree with Cyko, doing it the other way would have been incredibly moronic.

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Currently being bent over the couch by Jman and raped brutally.
Cheer up Emo kids.

Wow. Nice beatdown by Sephiroth.

... It would be rather ironic if Mario was actually doing well here and Sephiroth had boosted back to his 2003 levels. Despite my not liking Sephiroth, having a third character that strong would make things more interesting, though it doesn't look like that is going to happen. =\

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Second rule of war! He who holds the land can conquer heaven!

Meh. Am I the only one not impressed?
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Eh, it was more impressive last night, when Sephiroth looked like he was about to absolutely obliterate Mario. As it stands, it's just a plain old murdering now. Glad to see Mario's brought this percentage down a bit. He doesn't deserve what happened in 2k3.
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*is Karma Hunter*

I would be impressed if Seph had held his 58%. But if he ends at 56% it's just meh to me. Though I guess he can still push past 58.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

Well, at least Sephiroth is still clearing 48% on BL with ease as of now.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Whoa. Is it just me, or is Seph going BACK UP?!?
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Yeah, I saw that too. = (

How high does he need to equal BL with Snake 2k3 as the base?
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*is Karma Hunter*

Sure. If Mario is as impressive as his performances imply and he's around 42 on BL, Sephiroth may end up above Base Link. You can't tell me that's not impressive dammit!
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

58.21%. Duh, since Mario = 41.79 and all that.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

That's because I assumed Mario was going to keep on his little rampage here.

Fun fact: Sephiroth has never beaten BL. EVER, not even in 2003.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I can't tell which sets of preliminary X-Stats are which at this point. <.<
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*is Karma Hunter*

I thought Mario=41.95 based on 2K3 Snake.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

I've seen some pretty horrible, disgusting, and just plain sick and nasty things on the Internet.

But THIS, this is one of the worst. I said in a rematch, Mario would get 45% on Seph, pre-Nintendo boost. Looks like Bowser and Ganon just did over[erform after all...

No love, Seph.
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Seph vs. Mario - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Mario (132/200)

Yes that they did. The standings assumed Seph = 43% on BL... HAHAHAHA, that's even worse than in 2002.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Poor Mario.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Hey, it's true, Mario IS at 41.95%. Even better for that little Samus speech of yesterday.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Sephiroth is still increasing... and he's been taking upwards to 60% these past few updates. Oh, this is incredible, especially given that Mario has increased.


<3 <3

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

"I will not be a memory."

<3

Finally Sephiroth went down in percent.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Gotta wonder what the afterschool vote will do to the match.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

Yeah... but I expect Mario to murder him in similar fashion to what he did earlier. Sephiroth NEEDS to use this time before then.

Sephiroth currently has 56.90%, and he is projected at 48.70% on BL. That looks slightly more impressive when you put it that way...
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I'm just interested in Link Vs. Sephiroth. It's the first time that Cloud and Sephiroth share a common opponent in the same contest. A nice unbiased measuring stick for once.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

I don't believe Mario is going to be doing very much of anything to Sephiroth during this match, myself. He should have favored times, but they won't be dominate given how well Sephiroth is holding up during one of Mario's best times.

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

Aw, damn, Mario actually won an update. Haha, looking at it, that's his first update he's once since the start of the match.

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

Mario gained that update

Morning vote?
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

I'm just interested in Link Vs. Sephiroth. It's the first time that Cloud and Sephiroth share a common opponent in the same contest. A nice unbiased measuring stick for once.

Indeed. Hopefully Sephiroth is able to put up a good performance tomorrow, or at the least, perform far better than people had originally imagined...

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

From this point in Mario Vs. Crono, he only ended up with an extra 1%. And in some matches, he actually lost ground from this point. The only match where he made a noticable cut from here was Solid Snake, but understably so, considering Snake's unbalanced day and night.

Sephiroth may not increase much after this, but I doubt Mario will cut into the percentage either.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

Mario won the update! Chew on that one, you silver haired sucker!
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Vote for Mario, this year's contest champion!
This line reserved for winner of the 2k5 guru contest.

Mario just had to win an update while I was typing that.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

Sephiroth is only getting 53% of the votes now.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Heh, Sephiroth is showing that he means business here. He's still so unpredictable. And I guess it's safe to say that you still don't mess with Clinkeroth.

And it's odd that last night was one of the few nights where people weren't calling the match in the first 30 minutes. Bias, I guess.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

That's right find people who were awake during that time that are bigger fans of Sephiroth.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

That was a big gain from Sephiroth

btw Mario broke 44%
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

I see that despite Mario having every advantage he could ever be given (Momentum, motivated fanbase, demographic shift, etc.) Sephiroth is still opening a six pack on him. So to sum up, the Noble 9 still hasn't been broken and Clinkiroth still reigns supreme. Our only hope is that Vincent gets a decent bracket position that doesn't bring him into contact with upper tier N9 chars. Based on his performance against Crono, with Dirge of Cerberus he could possibly take down someone like Sonic or Snake.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

Here are the different groupings IMO

1. Mario Mario - 50.00%

2. Crono - 46.15%

3. Mega Man - 44.90%
4. Sonic the Hedgehog - 44.57%

5. Solid Snake - 42.79%
6. Bowser - 42.29%

7. Vincent Valentine - 41.18%
8. Squall Leonhart - 40.70%
9. Kirby - 40.50%
10. Samus Aran - 40.21%

11. Zelda - 39.02%
12. Tifa Lockheart - 38.87%

13. Dante Sparda - 37.89%
14. Knuckles the Echidna - 37.60%
15. Zero - 37.14%
16. Janus “Magus” Zeal - 36.96%

17. Luigi Mario - 36.26%
18. Master Chief - 35.73%
19. Donkey Kong - 35.17%
20. Ryu - 34.69%
21. Tidus - 34.29%

22. Ganondorf - 32.44%
23. Leon S. Kennedy - 31.83%
24. Vivi Ornitier - 31.55%

25. Rikku - 30.72%

26. Auron - 29.78%
27. Sora - 29.73%
28. Chun-Li - 28.84%
29. Yoshi - 28.67%
30. Diablo - 28.04%

31. Ryu Hayabusa - 27.48%

32. Tommy Vercetti - 26.91%
33. Alucard Tepes - 26.55%
34. Gordon Freeman - 26.38%
35. Kefka Palazzo - 26.30%

36. Yuna - 25.17%
37. Sam Fisher - 24.78%
38. KOS-MOS - 24.66%
39. Kratos Aurion - 24.25%
40. Frog - 24.09%
41. Kratos - 23.71%
42. Riku - 23.28%

43. CATS - 22.27%

44. Terra Branford - 21.60%
45. Conker - 21.53%
46. Zidane Tribal - 21.49%
47. Jin Kazama - 21.26%

48. Geno - 20.48%
49. Cecil - 20.08%
50. Lloyd Irving - 19.87%
51. Joanna Dark - 19.11%
52. King of All Cosmos - 18.84%

53. Albert Wesker - 18.01%
54. Agent 47 - 17.41%
55. Sarah Kerrigan - 17.30%
56. Ness - 17.20%
57. Vyse - 17.05%
58. Big Boss - 16.99%

59. Pac-Man - 15.58%
60. Carl “CJ” Johnson - 15.43%
61. Revolver Ocelot - 15.18%
62. Laharl - 15.11%

63. Manny Calavera - 13.62%

64. Yuri Hyuga - 10.20%

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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

This is amazing. Clinkeroth has once again proven itself to be head and shoulders above the pack. Now, there's only one thing to make this tournament complete: Link pulling in 57%+ of the vote tomorrow.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where Jman_gamerX8 kicked my ass.

I still think a Gauntlet would've been better than the ToC. Mario fights Seph, winner fights Cloud, winner fights Link. We still get three matches, but the last one is the best. Next year this'll be the only way to go, if Mario is booted out of the regular contest...which he really doesn't need to be, IMO.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

I can't tell which would be better...Sephy > Cloud, or Link with over 60% on Seph. HM seems to be cheering for the former though, so I guess the latter is more likely.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

I predict Link to get 56%
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Oh, don't get me wrong, tomorrow is going to be bloody. Cloud got 56%, and from the looks of it it doesn't look like it was a fluke, either. Link may well get 58%.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

*tag Xd
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*sigh* sonic's never going to be in the final 4 -_-

And strangely enough, Sephiroth maintains his 60/40 average over Mega Man as well.

Heh, so Sephiroth would break 60% on 60/64 contestants. He hasn't lost that touch yet. The Spring Contest might have just been an anomaly after all, at least in the Final Four. Sephiroth would be expected to get 62.15% on Bowser based on this.

Either that, or this is the after-effect of AC.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

I'd believe the Spring Contest Final 4 being an anomaly before I believe Sephiroth gains 3% on Bowser because Advent Children was leaked. In the unlikely event that this is Advent Children, however, just imagine how badly Cloud would have been rocked without it.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where Jman_gamerX8 kicked my ass.

And it's rather impressive that Sephiroth has held Mario to ONE five minute update win and one 50/50 exchange. Other than that, it's all him.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."