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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 262
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:43:05 AM | Message Detail
Brilliant work by Sephiroth, baby! :)

He's already making the contest look weak and, tommorrow, Link can only make it look even weaker. XD

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:45:15 AM | Message Detail
O_O

Well, I'm a dumbass.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where Jman_gamerX8 kicked my ass.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:45:44 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, but only about a 1% jump form his 2K4 value. I guess people really were just tired of Sephiroth beating everyone's ass in the villain contest.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: transience | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:47:04 AM | Message Detail
hm... assuming this is no AC boost, that means Bowser and Ganon are both overrated by a couple of points. oh well.
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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:49:39 AM | Message Detail
I knew that I couldn't trust the Villains contest...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, CLOUD, Go!
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:51:14 AM | Message Detail
Hmm...not nearly as devastating of an update there. Though that was mainly due to Sephiroth dropping...PROBABLY BECAUSE HE WANTED TO.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:51:17 AM | Message Detail
Really, I don't know why anyone put full faith in the LSE for the spring. It was absolutely clear that Bowser and Ganon were up, not that Seph went down any.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:52:48 AM | Message Detail
A LOT of board 8 regs thought Sephy dropped...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, CLOUD, Go!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:53:23 AM | Message Detail
Oh noes. Your ranks have been teh breached.

Fine, no well-known regs have ever won. Pwn.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:54:22 AM | Message Detail
You know, I'm really starting to think that Crono just dropped. I know this requires Sonic and Mega to also drop, but that one's not impossible. Look at what those two have done since 2002. Squadoosh.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: TheLivingDemon | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:54:46 AM | Message Detail
Fine, no well-known regs have ever won. Pwn.

But you're... wait... ack...

I'm like that computer that busts when all logic is defied.

*explodes*
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Currently 4th place in the 2005 Gamefaqs Summer Contest. Score: 191
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:54:47 AM | Message Detail
The Vote Total looks pretty good so far. It's slightly ahead of Link vs Cloud, but Link vs Cloud did take off quite a bit during the day.
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''
From: Villanous Bill Gates | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:55:01 AM | Message Detail
Damn, so close to breaking the top 50 and my upset special Mario looks like he's gonna lose. Oh well, didn't really expect him to win anyways.

With 185 points now, looks like I'll finish up on 193.


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Buy him out, boys!
"My point being im so pretty oh so pretty. and dandy like candy." ~ juicies_rocks
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:55:20 AM | Message Detail
Eh I never thought Sephiroth dropped, I just believed in "momentum", and that momentum would take a potentially stronger Mario out of his bracket and straight over Sephiroth.

Looks like it won't happen, unfortunately. I'm not counting him out quite yet, though.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Jman_gamerX8 puts not only Lopen's bracket making skills to shame, but also Raiden's... unheard of!
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:56:03 AM | Message Detail
lol STOP DOING THAT SEPHIROTH
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:56:19 AM | Message Detail
I'm not counting him out, either. But that's just bias talking, admittedly.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:56:43 AM | Message Detail
Oh, we've got a Guru winner? Lemme go change my sig.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:57:03 AM | Message Detail
*waves Sephiroth flag*
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~*Ex~Tha*~
"What is most important to you, Cloud? Would you give me the pleasure of taking it away?"
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:57:42 AM | Message Detail
Done.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Just Got Owned By: Jman_gamerX8, King of Gurus. Congrats!
From: transience | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:58:07 AM | Message Detail
you're obsessed with your bracket score. it's kind of sad to see - you're one step from turning into fedor.

if anything, Crono is constant, Mario increased and Seph is the same as in 2k4. basing something off the first hour is a bad idea, especially when it's the lower character's weakest time and the stronger character's strongest.
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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:59:13 AM | Message Detail
Sephiroth is truly showing no mercy here...

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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:59:42 AM | Message Detail
Wait, what the hell? Was HM cheering for Sephiroth? I thought he hated Seph as much as he hates Kefka.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:59:53 AM | Message Detail
Oh great, another guru we've never heard of. =\
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~*Ex~Tha*~
"What is most important to you, Cloud? Would you give me the pleasure of taking it away?"
From: TheLivingDemon | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:00:14 AM | Message Detail
Wait, what the hell? Was HM cheering for Sephiroth? I thought he hated Seph as much as he hates Kefka.

I like to think of it as a heel turn.
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Currently 4th place in the 2005 Gamefaqs Summer Contest. Score: 191
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:00:51 AM | Message Detail
Crono *could* have dropped, but that means that Mario didn't boost nearly as much as once thought and that a lot of characters look like crap (as has already been mentioned). I'm not counting AC out, myself.

Then again, I hope Crono and the gang *did* drop, because that just looks oh so much better for Snake. Snake over Sonic, Mega Man, AND Crono in 2006? Believe it.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: creativename | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:00:58 AM | Message Detail
especially when it's the lower character's weakest time and the stronger character's strongest

Eh? Mario is good with the board/early night vote, and Sephiroth is historically awful with it.

Maybe Advent Children helped Seph with the "hardcore" voters that previously despised him, but calling this Sephiroth's strongest time still doesn't seem right.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: transience | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:02:43 AM | Message Detail
Mario went 51/49 with Crono after the board vote and exploded all over his face in the day. this is clearly not Mario's best time.
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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:02:46 AM | Message Detail
I hope Crono and the gang *did* drop, because that just looks oh so much better for Snake. Snake over Sonic, Mega Man, AND Crono in 2006? Believe it.

Snake did significantly worse on Mario than Crono did, so he'd still be a heavy underdog there.

And I wouldn't be so sure being turned into an old man is actually going to help Snake's popularity, contest-wise.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:03:08 AM | Message Detail
Quick, call the Chief! Mario can't handle this ridiculousness!
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Raiden fact of the contest: Jman_gamerX8 puts not only Lopen's bracket making skills to shame, but also Raiden's... unheard of!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:03:27 AM | Message Detail
From: transience | Posted: 9/21/2005 3:58:07 AM | Message Detail | #220
you're obsessed with your bracket score. it's kind of sad to see - you're one step from turning into fedor.


If that was to me, I was being sarcastic. I just think it's odd that hardly anyone from around here has managed to win one of these despite all of us knowing enough to have a better chance than a casual/favorite bracket at winning. It's almost as if using the stats will cause you to lose.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Just Got Owned By: Jman_gamerX8, King of Gurus. Congrats!
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:04:19 AM | Message Detail
Snake did significantly worse on Mario than Crono did, so he'd still be a heavy underdog there.

Well, I'm talking about if Crono shows trends for dropping in one year, what's to say they wouldn't drop in the next? = P
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: creativename | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:05:26 AM | Message Detail
Mario went 51/49 with Crono after the board vote and exploded all over his face in the day. this is clearly not Mario's best time.

So?

Mario's weakest time is the "European vote", clearly not the first hour.

And Sephiroth has historically sucked the first hour. Maybe somehow Advent Children has turned this into his "strongest" time, but that would be a helluva turnaround. I'm dubious.
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www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:06:06 AM | Message Detail
Don't blame me... I didn't even really use the stats except to argue with you guys... I put up 16 "upset picks" for a reason...
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Raiden fact of the contest: Jman_gamerX8 puts not only Lopen's bracket making skills to shame, but also Raiden's... unheard of!
From: transience | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:06:23 AM | Message Detail
nah, wasn't to you, Ulti. everywhere I look, the guy in fourth place is talking/bragging about his bracket. it's cool to be excited about your bracket, but talking about it every post gets annoying. I do wish him the best of luck, though.

as for the stats blinding you, there's like 1-2% of the brackets on board 8. if we get 1/6 contests right, we're ahead of the ball.

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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: TheLivingDemon | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:08:04 AM | Message Detail
nah, wasn't to you, Ulti. everywhere I look, the guy in fourth place is talking/bragging about his bracket. it's cool to be excited about your bracket, but talking about it every post gets annoying. I do wish him the best of luck, though.

I figured that was to me. I apologize for being a dick about it, because I have been. I'm just very excited. I've never been anywhere near winning something on this site before, and yes, I'm getting as bad as fedor was in the Spring.

Thanks for the wish of luck, though. I do appreciate it.
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Currently 4th place in the 2005 Gamefaqs Summer Contest. Score: 191
From: transience | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:08:49 AM | Message Detail
ah, but you're looking at Seph's history based on previous years. I'm looking at Mario's history based on two days ago. I'd be very surprised if Seph increases on Mario during the day vote.
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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:08:56 AM | Message Detail
Here's to hoping Sephiroth takes the DAY VOTE from Mario! Yahoo!
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~*Ex~Tha*~
"What is most important to you, Cloud? Would you give me the pleasure of taking it away?"
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:09:42 AM | Message Detail
After his performances in this contest, I thought everyone saw that Crono dropped.

Anyway...

I'm very happy with Sephiroth's performance, yo. :)

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:11:17 AM | Message Detail
If this turns into Mario/Sephiroth I all over again, I will be very sad. Mario doesn't deserve to lose to Sephiroth...or Cloud...or Link. Mario deserves to win this thing, and if he loses he should at least look good doing it. Even 2002, his best year, looked painful in the final match.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:11:53 AM | Message Detail
Crono dropped? Mario is doing a hell of a lot better on Seph then he did two years ago. It's obvious Mario increased and I can't find anywhere to think Crono took a big drop.
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Jman_gamerX8 teamed up with Mario to kick my ass!
From: transience | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:12:46 AM | Message Detail
after the travesty that was Mario/Cloud, he deserved to lose like that. I would love to see Mario/Cloud II... we need a third place match, dammit.
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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:13:05 AM | Message Detail
Mario has a history of painful exits in contests....

2002 Link trounced him
2003 =D
2004 Crono just blasts him out of the water in a match that was supposed to be close.
2005 ...Hopefully we see Sephiroth decimate him. =D
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~*Ex~Tha*~
"What is most important to you, Cloud? Would you give me the pleasure of taking it away?"
From: transience | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:15:22 AM | Message Detail
and Crono is pretty stable; heck, I think cn suggested he be the character to base this year's stats on. drop Crono and everyone but MC and Vincent looks like crap.
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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: transience | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:15:52 AM | Message Detail
oh, this just in: Sephiroth should be arrested for murder.
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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:16:04 AM | Message Detail
I just think it's odd that hardly anyone from around here has managed to win one of these despite all of us knowing enough to have a better chance than a casual/favorite bracket at winning. It's almost as if using the stats will cause you to lose.

That's not really a fair comparason. The group that doesn't use stats is much, much larger than the group that does use stats. If you restrict it to well-known regs it becomes much smaller. While skill plays a large role in how well you do, luck is also a factor. Some correct picks are made for the wrong reason and you get lucky. I think most people had Mario beating Samus because they were hoping for a large amount of rSFF. As it turns out, Mario seems to boost by a huge amount to have a shot at Samus SFF or not. Finally, not ever regular uses the stats and they haven't won a contest yet either.
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:19:03 AM | Message Detail
Sephiroth absolutely dominated that update.
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~*Ex~Tha*~
"What is most important to you, Cloud? Would you give me the pleasure of taking it away?"
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:21:38 AM | Message Detail
A 66% update???

The way this match is going suggests that Ceej had the right idea by taking Seph out of the main bracket along with Cloud and Link. I was thinking that since Samus and Mario both looked like they had a chance of giving him a good match, he might have been better off in the main bracket, but this demonstrates why if there's a TOC, Sephiroth belongs in it.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Jman_gamerX8 kicked my ass in the Guru Contest.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:25:18 AM | Message Detail
From here until the end of his match with Bowser, Sephiroth increased 5.23%. If he does that here, he'll end up at...62.31%, which is nearly what he got on Mario in 2k3.

...ain't happening, but it's interesting to note.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: transience | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:26:22 AM | Message Detail
.....it must be SFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

with that idiotic comment out of the way, I'm going to bed. nite.
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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:28:05 AM | Message Detail
If Sephiroth can pull off doing better on Mario than on Bowser (which I doubt he can, but maybe), then Bowser's diabolical scheme will have proved to me more cunning than any of us imagined.

*slaps himself silly for not having faith in Sephiroth*


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