Aw, I got warned.

I am enjoying Link winning, and hopefully Mario can make himself respectable against Sephirtoh.

I might actually finish on the leaderboard this time ^_^

Cool.
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Mister Mario.

So where do you believe to be the fodder line? I'm using CATS so the following would be considered fodder (warning no adjustments were made)

43. CATS - 22.27%
44. Terra Branford - 21.60%
45. Conker - 21.53%
46. Zidane Tribal - 21.49%
47. Jin Kazama - 21.26%
48. Geno - 20.48%
49. Cecil - 20.08%
50. Lloyd Irving - 19.87%
51. Joanna Dark - 19.11%
52. King of All Cosmos - 18.84%
53. Albert Wesker - 18.01%
54. Agent 47 - 17.41%
55. Sarah Kerrigan - 17.30%
56. Ness - 17.20%
57. Vyse - 17.05%
58. Big Boss - 16.99%
59. Pac-Man - 15.58%
60. Carl “CJ” Johnson - 15.43%
61. Revolver Ocelot - 15.18%
62. Laharl - 15.11%
63. Manny Calavera - 13.62%
64. Yuri Hyuga - 10.20%

The characters a few places ahead are

37. Sam Fisher - 24.78%
38. KOS-MOS - 24.66%
39. Kratos Aurion - 24.25%
40. Frog - 24.09%
41. Kratos - 23.71%
42. Riku - 23.28%
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Are those numbers based on BL or Mario?
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Mister Mario.

Mario.
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MARIOWNED

Oh, yeah, duh. I'm stupid.
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Mister Mario.

Hey, that'd be awesome. I think I'll do that for next year. Or even better....a female contest!

Oh yeah.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

I don't use BL. I use whatever the percent of the winner of the contest was.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Riku would destroy Kratos, KOS-MOS, and Fisher.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

That's what we call 'Samus SFF'. Riku's not that close to the fodder line.
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*is Karma Hunter*

Yes, I know. Just a random statement of the day. Riku would destroy Kratos, KOS-MOS, and Fisher.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

The fodder line should be Wesker >_>;
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

The number of upsets in this contest, from beginning to end, was staggering IMO.

Alucard: 26.55%
Gordon Freeman: 26.38%

Alucard's equal? GORDON IS A BEAST!!! :-D
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

I knew there was no way Link could keep it above 53% with the AC leak. Hes not THAT strong. Not yet, anyway. Hopefully he can finish above what he did in 2004.

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Can't think of a good sig.

Exactly. Excellent job by Cloud with the second night vote... he's keeping us in suspense as to what the AC leak has done. I wouldn't be surprised if it DID have an effect, seeing how he actually won the two night votes proper, and I'd expect those who are aware of the leak to be mostly among the night junkies.

Was the Samus situation discussed while I was at work? Because after looking at it from every possible angle, and thinking about it some more at work, I got a lot to say on the matter.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Talk away. Nobody else is really saying anything, and I want something to read ^_^
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Mister Mario.

I know theres no chance in hell, but I would really love for Mario to win tomorrow. It would be just like 2002...

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Can't think of a good sig.

Well, it might get lengthy, so I'll get started right away.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Strange that Alucard is projected to get less against Mario than he was against BL in 2004.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

well, I'm about to be called insane, but here's what I did last night:

- I gave Samus her 2k3 value. it's too low, I know, but short of giving her a random value, she's either at 38% or 42%. I am not putting her above Mario.

- I adjusted Ganon's fourpack based on his Spring value. this puts Auron at like 33% (slightly too high for me) and Yuna at 28% (not sure yet).

- I adjusted Ness through Auron through Spring Ganon. this puts Ness at 24%, and I like this because it sort of accounts for a Nintendo boost. I haven't figured out what the hell to do with Yoshi's fourpack, because that thing is a mess.
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.

The cut-in with the closeups of the eyes? Great. Wonderful. Everybody's doing it. Try something different to make your pic stand out.

Heh heh.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

er, it puts Ness at 23%. my bad.
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.

and damn, Ceej owned some people. I love it when he makes fun of their hard work.
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* Don't be too simple. The early rounds of the contest already covered the "simple" ground. Cropping two boxshots and sticking in some text doesn't really look that great.

Oh well, at least Ceej himself admits that his pics don't "look that great". >_>
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"Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." ~ Isaac Asimov

I won't know anything concrete until after this contest is over and I've done the LSE, but right now my intuition is saying that keeping Crono constant will probably give the most sensible stats. The problem with the LSE is that I'll have to incorporate another factor for "the boost", otherwise it will give deflated results for everyone. So that's going probably to be a good deal of work, which I probably won't get around to for a while.

Regarding Samus right now I'm guessing that the most logical possibilities are setting Samus equal to Crono, or halfway between Mario and Crono, or giving her her 2K4 value (which will almost certainly be below what Mario's value will be, since my pre-calculation estimate is that he seems to have boosted about 15%).
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Mario boosting 15%?

Oh... God...
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It's pitch black except for the light!

I wouldn't be surprised if it DID have an effect, seeing how he actually won the two night votes proper, and I'd expect those who are aware of the leak to be mostly among the night junkies.

>_>, that's sort of a stretch, no? Square is good with the night vote, and Cloud is...Cloud. He doesn't need a Japanese movie to help him win the night.

Also, if AC is released relatively soon, say, before february, is it even going to have an effect on next year's contest? I don't see a movie staying as popular as long as a game. Look at any movie in theaters; the first few weeks are always the best. So it's possible that whatever Cloud could have gotten he won't get, because of bad timing.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

You're quite determined to make sure that AC does nothing for the characters of FFVII aren't ya, Falcon?

It should be released toward the very end of this year or the beginning of next year. And that, coupled with some other FFVII games and KHII, should do quite a bit for Cloud and the others.

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

Mario vs. Samus. THE match that was talked about the most before the contest began, during the contest in the weeks leading up to it, and it looks like it's going to haunt us for a long time.

The problem? Adjusting Samus. No one wants to see Samus above Mario since she lost, hell, even I am not fond of this. But, we've seen a case where an adjustment needed to be made that'd put the winner far below the loser. It was in 2002, so it was never actually written down, and we can thus consider the most of us who picked Alucard over Kirby the next year very, very lucky.

This time, it's different. We have all the data in the world, and that data points to the two being even steven. With our base being 2003 Snake, Mario is at an un-movable 41.79% on BL. Meanwhile, 2004 Samus is pegged at 42.36%. It's just six tenths, it shouldn't be too hard to find something, right? WRONG.

Frog fluked a 48% against Snake last year, and wasn't here for the first two contests, so that's out of the question. Yuna got a very obvious boost from FFX-2. Riku, Yuri and Big Boss are newbies. That leaves us with Ganondorf and Auron. Spring Contest, as well as the Ganondorf-through-fluke-ish-Magus that has been used up until now, both have Samus overshooting by a mile, as does pseudo-SFF-adjusted 2004 Auron. However, using unadjusted Auron drags down Samus to the pits of hell of her 2003 level. She dominated the Zebes division too much to be placed there, and she didn't do well enough to justify any of these other adjustments. So, that 42.36% looks like a middle ground between completely crazy adjustments. And it's still ahead of Mario... wait, I'm not done yet.

Just like people need to get over the psychological barrier that characters have a ceiling for votes, people need to get over the psychological barrier that 50% is anything more than a level that cuts off between who advances in the tournament and who is eliminated. (And the conventional percentage for BL, but that's entirely besides the point.) What I'm saying is, drag Samus down artificially to 41.78% and suddenly all complaints are gone. That makes no sense.

Before SFF, 2004 Samus is expected to score 50.67% on 2005 Mario. (A major step up from the projected 55.98% on 2004 Mario already.) 50.67%. That's not a lot, isn't it? In my book, that's a complete toss-up. In that optic, what's the difference between SFFing a character that'd be expected to get 50.67% on you as opposed to 49.99%? Answer: there's none. X-Sts are an approximate "science", not something that goes down to the hundredth.

From that point of view, 42.36% doesn't sound really outlandish. And although I share the sentiment of most people about having Mario over/under Samus, an adjustment that is done and kept in the realm of the reasonable has no choice to be entirely arbitrary (for example, we suppose Mario gets 51% on Samus before SFF) and to be done just to make the stats "look good". (Note that there's an abyss between my usage of the term and Ulti's.) Any adjustment we make should have some mathematical ground, even if it's least squares. Heck, even my proposed adjustment for Ness has some sort of mathematical backing. You think I'm even going to take these adjusted stats seriously for the next game contest? No ****ing way.

So that's why I'd rather keep Samus sleeping at 42.36% (even if it's only for the sake of having an approximate read on the likes of Auron or Ganondorf). There's always going to be an asterisk besides that mark in our heads anyway, since we know what happened with Mario. Same goes for the Devil division, no matter what we do with it... but I'd rather keep that one for once the contest is done and over with.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

From: Figlar20000 | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:41:37 AM | #076
Mario boosting 15%?

Oh... God...

I think he means 15% of his former value, not relative to BL.

Which makes a lot more sense. From about 37 to 42%? That's 15% alright.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

The thing about Mario is that he has a good chance of being above 42.36%. There's a fair amount of characters (most notably Crono and Mega Man, and then a whole bunch of midcarders) that support Mario being in the range. We'll see what he does to Sephiroth tomorrow.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

well, if you're adjusting off either Crono or Snake, it's stuck in stone at this point. the only way you're going to put him higher is if you use Spring Sephiroth or something, and there's no way we could determine if that's accurate off one or two matches.
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.

Crono and Megaman, huh? I'd chalk it down to them dropping a lil' notch, to be honest. It's all about the base, to be honest. Even with Snake 2003, we get increases all over the place. If we go with an even more generous one, like Megaman 2003 or Crono 2003, we may end up distributing extra points where they don't belong.

And since it's likely that the base will come from the main bracket no matter what happens, it's Sephiroth that will be extrapolated through Mario, not the reverse...
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Hey I haven't seen anything about it in here yet so...just saying, pics are up.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b65-1.jpg
through
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b65-6.jpg
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-Hot Johnny Depp

If Mario wins tomorrow, then the stats are...well, out of luck, I guess.

However, Mario is two steps removed from Bowser, who has an established Spring value, so it's a start.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

It'll be funny to read everyone's reasons for wanting to adjust the Devil Division now that cloud has gotten his ass whipped worse than last year. Cloud was supposed to prove that Vincent overperformed on Crono!1!one

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2

Heh, thank you Slowflake...I thought the exact same thing. I figured that if two characters are already close together and if huge SFF occurs, it just simply proves that rSFF is more than possible. I typed up a theory about rSFF several topics ago...unfortunately, everyone ignored it due to having two mistakes in the first sentence, as well as being my nobody self...ah, well.

Anyway, I did an LSE...Mario ended up at about 42%, no higher than SC2K4 Samus. I excluded anything that was suspicious (Sora, Alucard, Gordon, Vyse, Vincent's division), Nintendo, or anything behind SFF... heh, I excluded MC, too, but maybe I shoulda just used his 2K3 value...ah, well.

As some have proposed earlier, Snake 2K3 seems like a good base, in my opinion.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Because 0.8% and still dropping is a LOT, yo.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Thanks Haste... good to see I'm not good for the asylum quite yet.

I whipped that up in my head at work. Cutting rags gets old fast.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I really like #2 and #6. #3 was an awesome idea, but you can barely see anything on Sephiroth's side...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I think #2 was very well done, but Ceej is right. The cutaways are being overdone.

Not to mention, the last three pictures all use the same image of Mario.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Oh, can't believe I forgot one item.

Looking at that 41.79 vs. 42.36 thingy and call one character so much as a slight favorite isn't really smart. That's like looking at the 2003 stats and calling ANYONE in the Megaman/Mario/Crono/Samus quartet a favorite over the other. Barring the now-obvious-in-hindsight Mario/Samus, but whatever.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Damn, those pics are heavily Mario biased.

You can barely notice Sephiroth in most of them.

4 and 6 are the only ones where "visibility" is balanced.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

it's not that I'd call Samus a favourite just because she's .6% ahead of Mario, it's that Mario kicked her ass. putting her above Mario looks stupid when you consider how bad the asskicking was. if it was 52-48 or something, I wouldn't really have a problem.
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In pic 1 Seph is a blob, 2 is not so bad but Mario dominates the focus of the image, I think 3 is a good idea for a wallpaper but looks real bad as a small image.

These pictures aren't so great IMO.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

I agree with the essence of the idea, but not the way to apply it.

Anyway, as I said, Mario transformed an ass-kicking by Cloud into a close victory. Same fight... if the 2002 stats were to be rewritten to include the anomalies we know happened, we'd all be crying murder for sending Cloud in second place despite losing to Mario.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

You're quite determined to make sure that AC does nothing for the characters of FFVII aren't ya, Falcon?

Yes, die ac, die!

Eh, it's just a thought, really. It's not even too much of an extreme one, at that. I think it's plausible to think the best time for an AC boost would be shortly after its release, not next summer. I did forget about KH2 though, so it's not like Cloud has to worry about dropping or anything like that.

are there any sales figures for ac that have been released yet?


and on Samus, I think with her it's just so damn strange, because stronger characters are supposed to not be as easily as sff'd as the weaker ones. So Samus being even just a little above Mario still leaves room for sizeable sff. Which is odd.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

As far as Mario is concerned, I think it's a matter of status more than anything else. Not as many people may like Mario than Samus (note: HYPOTHETICAL), but because he's Mr. Nintendo, the people that DO like both have a major preference for Mario.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I'm not really worried about Samus - I know where she lies no matter what number you give her. it's people like Frog or Ganon, and in Ganon's case I'm not convinced there's no SFF there.
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oh, and I'm going to say Link has 70% of the brackets. this should be interesting.
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