well, they're the focus of ff7. by that logic you could say that Link makes the Zelda series popular and you can tell by Link's contest strength compared to Ganon or Zelda.

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Even if that's the case, it's minor. A % or two, really, and it doesn't keep him away from being among the top 10 pre-adjustment and pre-ToC. Maybe Kirby would beat him, maybe Ganon, but who else below him in even the unadjusted stats would you take over Vincent (barring Samus)? It can't be a long list.

I have to agree here. Samus, Ganondorf, and perhaps Kirby (who may have gotten rSFF himself) and Zelda are they only guys that I'd consider taking over Vincent this year. Not a long list at all.

And, after seeing everyone in action, I'm fairly convinced that Vincent > Aeris >= Tifa, and that we underrated Squall last year.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I think we can all agree that Vinny V is the 3rd strongest FFVII character by a fair margin, yes?

Tifa. Vincent's got too much controversy surrounding his ranking for me to give him the title of third strongest FF7 character right now, for a variety of reasons. If Tifa and Vincent had switched places in the bracket this year, we would probably see "Vinny V" be replaced with some nickname for Tifa (though that's not to say there's a clear favorite in a Vincent/Tifa match). Once DoC (and KH2, if Vincent gets to be in it) is released though, yeah, no question he'd be the third strongest.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I was just thinking that I'd expect Tifa to beat Squall worse than Vincent did. could be my bias, though.
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"well, they're the focus of ff7."

Yuna and Tidus are the focus of FFX, doesn't stop Auron from outranking both of them. Heck, Vivi is the fourth most important character in FF9 after Zidane, Garnet and Kuja and I don't think we'd take any of them to beat Vivi. Being the main character has its benefits, but it doesn't guarentee that character will be the most popular unless that's the only playable character.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

"could be my bias, though."

Undoubtedly.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Games of 2006 that could be important to the contest:

Twilight Princess: Link, Ganon, Zelda, Midna (how would she place? I'm guessing ~27% on BL, especially if she's in SSBO)

Kirby GCN: Kirby (duh)

Dirge of Cerberus: Vincent, maybe other FFVII characters.

KH2: Auron, Squall, Cloud, Aeris, Sora, Riku, anyone else?

SSBO: Every freaking Nintendo character. This'll be the real Nintendo boost.

Metroid Prime 3: Samus

Super Mario 128: Mario, Bowser, Luigi, Yoshi

New Super Mario Bros: Mario, Bowser, Luigi, Yoshi

Superstar Saga 2: Mario, Bowser, Luigi, Yoshi(?)

Zelda DS: Link, Ganon, Zelda

FFVII: Crisis Core: Cloud, Vincent(?), Sephiroth

Metal Gear Solid 4: Snake Team

Shadow the Hedgehog: Shadow, other Sonic Team members?

New Sonic the Hedgehog: Sonic, Knuckles, Shadow, Tails


Is that all? It's looking like we're going to have a ton of new games for next year.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

"KH2: Auron, Squall, Cloud, Aeris, Sora, Riku, anyone else?"

I've heard Vincent will be in that, I do believe.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I just believe that if people want to make the case for him possibly overperforming on Crono, rSFF is a more sound case than the Advent Children leakage.

I agree with this. There's four fair enough reasons to believe Vincent over-performed on Crono, as I stated yesterday I think:

1-FF:AC leak (the most popular reason, but I wouldn't say the biggest)
2-FF7 > CT (doesn't hurt his cause, and being a fan-favorite of FF7 only helps)
3-newer generation (probably doesn't amount to much, but it probably had an effect)
4-fanbase awareness (fans of Crono are more likely to be aware of Vincent's existance than Dante)

While some seem more (un)reasonable than others, I think that the four combined simply HAD to cause an over-performance...judging how much would be a pain in the ass though.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Isin't Tifa a focal point in Crisis Core? It should boost her.

I'm not sure how many of those games will be out by next summer. I'd bet that none of the next gen titles will be on store shelves, though.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

I think Halo 3 and FF12 are supposed to be out by next summer, too. Plus, to add onto all that, let's not forget that there'll be three new consoles next summer...and, for what it's worth, the Xbox 360 will have the most time to settle from its early release date than the others.

Next year will be VERY weird.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I really don't think next year will be as weird as you think it will be. the only significant thing to me next year is the 360, and the influx of xbox-friendly users to the site. it's possible Master Chief will be stronger next year because of that.

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Kuja is in no way on the same level as Sephiroth.

Yes, he's much better.

... Probably isn't what you are talking about, but it must be mentioned. <.<

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Second rule of war! He who holds the land can conquer Heaven! - Magatsu Taito

Mumei is 100% correct.
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I was just thinking that I'd expect Tifa to beat Squall worse than Vincent did. could be my bias, though.

Well, you also have to take into account that Squall and Vinny are different versions of the loner archetype. I think they would share more of a fanbase than Tifa and Squall would.
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The Soul Eater hungers again... the Thunder God stirs from his rest... Tir McDohl and Cidolfas Orlandu clash at www.rpgdl.com!

so Link is popular because they're great games, but FF7 is popular because of Cloud and Seph? meh, I guess it's debatable since RPGs are story-driven, but I personally believe Cloud and Seph are popular because of FF7.

See but that's just it. RPG's ARE character and story driven. The gameplay format doesn't change much from RPG to RPG. FFVII had ATB, but it was still a menu driven, everyone attacks during their own turn kind of battle system. Beyond that, RPG's just don't have a lot of gameplay that's a simple fact. Hell, when I'm honest with myself, I can admit that the gameplay, by itself, in FFVII wasn't the best ever. While materia mix and match was fun and had its cool moments, gameplay options from games like Diablo II beat it, hands down. The story and characters of that game are what made it so great.

Link's action adventure games tend to be based more on the puzzle-solving and gameplay. Though as I was trying to get through earlier (and I don't think I said enough about it), I don't think Link is as popular Today without OOT. And I don't think OOT is as popular without the story elements they emphasized in that game.

Not that in the other games Link didn't have an appealing story, because he does. The Knight saves the princess from the evil monster/sorcerer is a classic storyline, but oddly one that has very few archtypical Knight characters(most fables are from the point of view of the princess for some reason). I honestly can't think of one at the moment from the various classic fables, though it seems like I should be able to. Link IS that archtypical character. A sword-swinging, magic slinging, shield-wielding badass with a heart of gold that anyone can relate to and like.

But to get back to my original point, OoT emphasized and embellished that story, making it easier to relate to.
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"Yeah keep making jokes, that'll win the war."-Griff
[Placeholder for sig bet with JusticeGuy begun 1/8/05]

Isin't Tifa a focal point in Crisis Core? It should boost her.

Zack is the main character of Crisis Core.

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

I know Zack's the main character but I remember in EGM it said it focused on Zack, Tifa, Cloud and Sephy.

I am one of those odd people who plays RPGs for gameplay more than for story. I personally find some RPGs to have more interesting gameplay than a zelda game, which isn't much in the gameplay category in my mind. give me metroid gameplay over zelda gameplay anyday.
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Kirby GCN: Kirby (duh)

I'm unsure on if that'll make it.

SSBO: Every freaking Nintendo character. This'll be the real Nintendo boost.

Metroid Prime 3: Samus

Super Mario 128: Mario, Bowser, Luigi, Yosh

These three will most definitely NOT be out by the time next year's contest rolls around.

Zelda DS: Link, Ganon, Zelda

I'm unsure that'll be out too.

Metal Gear Solid 4: Snake Team

That won't be out.

New Sonic the Hedgehog: Sonic, Knuckles, Shadow, Tails

That might be out.

Final Fantasy XII is one to add to the list, assuming its US release isn't far from its Japanese release. But that could go into the list of questionables as well.

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

Well, I didn't put FFXII because it doesn't have any characters from past contests. Halo 3 I doubt will be out in time, that's only 1.5 years after Halo 2.

As for the Revolution...it might not be out in time, but didn't the N64 come out in June? Kirby GCN will definitely be out in time, it should be out by February. You're probably right about MGS4 though.

And nobody answered my question...how strong do you guys think Midna will be? Considering how absolutely ****ing awesome she looks, and that she'll be the first non-Link Zelda PC, I'm thinking she'll be pretty beastly. Around 27% (Alucard 2k3) at the minimum, and around 33% (Aeris 2k3) as a maximum, depending on how awesome she turns out. Hell, it could be even better for her if she's in SSBR.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Didn't Microsoft say that they intend to release Halo 3 on the launch of the PS3?
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Didn't Microsoft say that they intend to release Halo 3 on the launch of the PS3?

...the only way they'll accomplish that is if the PS3 is delayed, or Halo 3 is a rushed piece of crap. Personally, I wouldn't bet on either.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Mumei is 100% correct.

If your going to shamelessly echo someone spouting one-sentence absolutes, you could at least get their name right. It was Mugen.
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"Yeah keep making jokes, that'll win the war."-Griff
[Placeholder for sig bet with JusticeGuy begun 1/8/05]

Halo 3 has been in development since well before halo 2's release and has a lot of people working on it. It could quite easily be out around march.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy

It was Mugen.

alt.
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MARIOWNED

^If you says so.
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"Yeah keep making jokes, that'll win the war."-Griff
[Placeholder for sig bet with JusticeGuy begun 1/8/05]

Man, is Link still rising?
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MARIOWNED

shameless echoing? funny, I was agreeing. from now on, I'll be sure not to agree with someone.
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Looks like it. The afterschool vote doesn't wear off for a while.
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*is Karma Hunter*

If anybody knows where I might find a Sephiroth Chain of Memories sprite, I'd be very grateful.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Sephiroth isn't in CoM.
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*is Karma Hunter*

Yeah, Sephiroth sprites don't exist. He wasn't in the game. He has no plot relevance.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Well, I didn't put FFXII because it doesn't have any characters from past contests

Ah, I getcha. I was wondering why such a huge title would be left off. =p

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

Oh. Nuts.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Heh, I did find some Sephiroth sprites that seem to have been based off of Setzer's sprite.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Final fantasy XII (if its out in time) might produce someone of Aurons caliber at best, but I have serious doubts about getting any higher than that. If anything i think it'll look something like this (I only know two characters off the top of my head) Vaan=<Auron Ashe=<Tifa/Aeris. I just dont think it'll have enough appeal to produce a character with the stregnth of soemone like cloud.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

Yeah, I saw those, too, but unless I make my own sprite (not likely), no Sephy sprite for me.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I wonder why we didn't get a Cloud sprite (either FFT or CoM) versus a Link sprite (any 2D Zelda). That would've been nice. In all honesty, these pictures today are seriously underwhelming compared to the orgasmic ones of 2k4.
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*is Karma Hunter*

shameless echoing? funny, I was agreeing. from now on, I'll be sure not to agree with someone.

One sentence opinions stated as fact, and without any supporting arguments have little place in a topic titled "Discussion." Less so entire posts dedicated stating ones agreement with those, also without any support for the statement they are agreeing with.

But in some sense you are correct, and I was further in the wrong for thinking you had mispelled his name, as Dranz pointed out. I withdraw the statement, and apologize for the insult.
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"Yeah keep making jokes, that'll win the war."-Griff
[Placeholder for sig bet with JusticeGuy begun 1/8/05]

Vaan likely won't be that popular at all. His character model isn't appealing in the least, so unless his character turns out to be something amazing (which I doubt, personally. He seems to be a Vyse/Tidus/Zidane crossbreed, which doesn't seem like it'd produce a successful mixture, despite the fact that I like all three of them), he won't be much at all.

I'd wager on Ashe or Balthier being the most popular.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

I dunno Tidus isn't exactly appealing and he's still a decent mid-carder at worst.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

But even Tidus looks nowhere near as feminine as Vaan does.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

FACT or FICTION: If AC had been released in America at the same time as Japan, Cloud would be winning this match right now.

Fiction.

Anyone who would have bought the DVD would have already obtained AC online.

i don't have time to say much, but this struck me as one of the most asinine comments in this topic. so, the 100,000+ people who would buy AC in the first week of it's release will have already illegally downloaded it within that same week. good grief.
personally, i think Cloud would have kept this much closer and possibly even won if Advent Children hadn't been delayed.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

I get the feeling ff12 characters will be like ff9 characters - people will be so into the new consoles that no one will notice that it actually happened. it won't do nearly as well as ff10 did.
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I wonder why we didn't get a Cloud sprite (either FFT or CoM) versus a Link sprite (any 2D Zelda). That would've been nice. In all honesty, these pictures today are seriously underwhelming compared to the orgasmic ones of 2k4.

I blame myself. My pic last year was the only one with sprites, but I didn't have enough time to make anything decent this year. I was hoping to make up for that with Mario/Sephiroth, but now I have to figure something out for Sephy.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Do you seriously think AC would have given Cloud a THREE % or MORE boost? That's HUGE considering the tier Cloud and Link are at.
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It's pitch black except for the light!

The vote totals look like they are going to break 120k
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

It's gonna have to push to reach 120,000 at this point. It's 6,000 behind Link/Cloud 2004, though it has been catching up.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."