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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 261
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/20/2005 12:11:11 PM | Message Detail
It's a bit of a fallacy to assume that link increased hugely just because a lot of other nintendo characters did. We really don't know for sure that he did, after all zelda didn't end up too far ahead of her 2k3 status. Also keep in mind that the stronger you are the harder it is to increase.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Heroic_Sheena | Posted: 9/20/2005 12:30:46 PM | Message Detail
Looks like I was right about Link breaking 53% with the after school vote. He's dominating right now.

For the Advent Children boost, here's an idea to consider. There was a boost that helped Vincent (and probably Tifa), but not Cloud, since he's one of the most well-established characters on GameFAQs. It probably didn't help out Sephiroth much either, but we'll see about that tomorrow.
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"I call upon the Red Giant, the Ruler of Hellfire! Come! Efreet!" ~ Sheena Fujibayashi
*is Tediz247*
From: Heroic_Sheena | Posted: 9/20/2005 12:52:58 PM | Message Detail
Holy hell, since I got online at 1:15, Link's gone all the way from around 52.2% to 52.5%. I knew he would own the after school vote, but not this badly.
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"I call upon the Red Giant, the Ruler of Hellfire! Come! Efreet!" ~ Sheena Fujibayashi
*is Tediz247*
From: Heroic_Sheena | Posted: 9/20/2005 12:53:44 PM | Message Detail
Err, I should say that by 1:15, I mean 12:15 GameFAQs time.
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"I call upon the Red Giant, the Ruler of Hellfire! Come! Efreet!" ~ Sheena Fujibayashi
*is Tediz247*
From: transience | Posted: 9/20/2005 12:53:45 PM | Message Detail
jesus, Heroic Mario just killed himself. Cloud's getting smashed.

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From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/20/2005 12:54:11 PM | Message Detail
Holy wow...Link has dominated since I left.

So...looks like Nintendo boost > AC leak boost. Link is making this ugly.

And Mario > Sephiroth. BELIEVE IT!
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Link vs. Cloud - Bracket: Link - Vote: Link (124/192)
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/20/2005 12:56:56 PM | Message Detail
Ya know... this is kinda random but I was just thinking... before the Crono/Vincent match I claimed Vincent would rank 10th in the stats. Without the ToC he's 7th, with it he is... well, you know ;)
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Heroic_Sheena | Posted: 9/20/2005 12:58:46 PM | Message Detail
I'm scared of a post-DoC Vincent. If Square does that game right, we could very well be saying Clinkcent.
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"I call upon the Red Giant, the Ruler of Hellfire! Come! Efreet!" ~ Sheena Fujibayashi
*is Tediz247*
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:01:39 PM | Message Detail
I'm not sure if Vinny could really get a lot higher. We haven't really seen a guy jump from midcarder to Noble Nine with new games coming out, even Ganondorf.

And on another note... I really didn't have much hope since the second round when all the Nintendo characters showed how strong they'd become, but it looks like my Cloud pick went wrong after all. Stupid ToC.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:02:08 PM | Message Detail
Link by the hour:
13:00 | 55.76%
12:00 | 52.61%
11:00 | 53.31%
10:00 | 51.35%
09:00 | 52.48%
08:00 | 52.14%
07:00 | 53.84%
06:00 | 52.97%
05:00 | 52.68%
04:00 | 53.97%
03:00 | 47.02%
02:00 | 47.14%
01:00 | 50.53%

The (other) man in green has another four hours to make Cloud his **** before he'll even think about slowing down.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:02:20 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:02:22 PM | Message Detail
The problem is despite HM unbridled optimism about the game, people who have played DoC have said the game needs A LOT of work. Like almost a complete overhaul of the controls.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: transience | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:02:52 PM | Message Detail
damn, you have Cloud? I was cheering for you.

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From: transience | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:04:00 PM | Message Detail
I repeat: I won't believe DOC is anything special until Square proves to me they can make an action game.
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From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:04:43 PM | Message Detail
Hmm. I'm still happy that Link is winning though, regardless. During my run on the leaderboard, I'd been really rooting for my picks, even if I made sure not to bracket vote, but I still wanted Link on top today. Suppose that says something about what I think of Cloud.

So, the only real thing of interest left in the contest, to me, is how close Sephiroth gets to Cloud's total. I don't buy Mario having a shot, though I suppose you never know.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Heroic_Sheena | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:05:27 PM | Message Detail
I'm not sure if Vinny could really get a lot higher. We haven't really seen a guy jump from midcarder to Noble Nine with new games coming out, even Ganondorf.

He will have the advantage of being a main character. It will definitely make him more noticeable, and it will probably make him a lot more likable. Hell, I even find myself wanting to like the guy already with what little I've heard about it, and I was bashing Vincent's character since the bracket was released.
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"I call upon the Red Giant, the Ruler of Hellfire! Come! Efreet!" ~ Sheena Fujibayashi
*is Tediz247*
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:06:17 PM | Message Detail
Vincent is more or less on the threshold of the Noble Nine already, so a new game (if it's pulled off well, I've heard the same complaints as NewLib) would probably boost him up into the lower ranks, at least. He's already expected to get 47.56% on Snake, after all.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:07:24 PM | Message Detail
Another 99 for Link. Oh man, Cloud is getting killed and beaten, and he didn't even get the day vote, as SOME predicted he would.

Link > Cloud
Mario > Crono

TODAY IS A GOOD DAY.
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Mario is Winnar
MARIO WINS SUMMER 2005 TOURNAMENT.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:08:02 PM | Message Detail
"We haven't really seen a guy jump from midcarder to Noble Nine with new games coming out, even Ganondorf."

He's not a midcarder, even barrign anomalies he's still very much a near elite and could most likely take 1/3 of the vote against Link. Really, the only character inbetween him and the Noble Nine in this years stats is Bowser, and if DoC is half the game that FF7 was that'd change in an instant.

Hell, look at Bowser, one game that he only appears in for three short battles has apparently rocketed him from barely breaking 30% to being a serious threat to Noble 9 members and the only people that seriously thought Bowser would beat Snake were expecting a minimal boost for Snake. What we got, apparently, was a full strength Snake and a match that was still too damn good.

If Bowser can do that while only having small-ish roles in the new games he's in and Vincent is already at that level without a new game how much do you really think it'll take?
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:09:07 PM | Message Detail
"I repeat: I won't believe DOC is anything special until Square proves to me they can make an action game."

Bushido Blade > You
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:10:02 PM | Message Detail
Keep in mind, though, we don't really know for sure Vinny's strength right now. The only thing we're basing him on is a SFF match, and FF7 characters act extremely weirdly when you stick them against a character from the same fanbase... and we haven't even seen the effects of FF7 characters facing Square characters that are stronger than them.

Besides, aren't a lot of the other Devil Division characters a bit high in the rankings with Vinny where he is? I know Squall is (though, still, that was a SFF match too), but I'm not sure on the others.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:11:13 PM | Message Detail
"The only thing we're basing him on is a SFF match"

If you're talking about Crono you're mistaken. there was no SFF there, and there was none against Squall.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:12:46 PM | Message Detail
Hell, look at Bowser, one game that he only appears in for three short battles has apparently rocketed him from barely breaking 30% to being a serious threat to Noble 9 members and the only people that seriously thought Bowser would beat Snake were expecting a minimal boost for Snake.

Well, Bowser could have just profited from the Nintendo boost, too.

Honestly, we really haven't seen anything like Vinny's situation, which makes me think that yeah, he could jump up to the top ranks with DoC, but I'm not going to bet on it.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Starion | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:12:51 PM | Message Detail
Do Brave Fencer Musashi and Threads of Fate count as action games?
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:12:55 PM | Message Detail
Noble Nine in 2007:
1. Link
2. Cloud
3. Mario
4. Sephiroth
5. Crono
6. Snake
7. Vincent
8. Ganondorf
9. Sonic

GUARNTEE'D
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:16:34 PM | Message Detail
If you're talking about Crono you're mistaken. there was no SFF there, and there was none against Squall.

I completely don't buy that. I could be wrong, but I see no reason to automatically assume there wasn't, especially since we've been burned so many times before. Cause if anyone could cause the rSFF we've talked about for a while, it's an FF7 character.

I'm not saying there definitely was... I just think that "Was there SFF in Crono vs. Vincent" is something that we have to consider next contest, rather than all deciding to jump into one camp.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:16:37 PM | Message Detail
err correction

1. Link
2. Cloud
3. Mario
4. Sephiroth
5. Crono
6. Samus
7. Snake
8. Vincent
9. Ganondorf
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:21:31 PM | Message Detail
"Well, Bowser could have just profited from the Nintendo boost, too."

It's not the Nintendo boost, half the Nintendo characters in the contest haven't gone up. And yes, Bowser has gone up, perhaps I didn't make tht clear when I said "from barely breaking 30% to being a serious threat to Noble 9 members" so I'll say it again... He's gone from the low 30's to mid 30's with a hell of a lot less than a starring role in a new game. Vincent is already there, it wouldn't take a hell of a lot for him to tackle low-end Noble Niners.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: ProtomanV4 | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:22:06 PM | Message Detail
So let me get this straight. After playing Crono close and beating Snake every time they've faced each other, MM gets booted out of the N9 but Snake stays in? Same w/ Sonic. He hasn't been blown out by any of the 9 members but Cloud though he was easily cleared by Samus (S vs. S II). The weakest of the former 9 has to be Snake so he should be the one booted out if any should be booted out.

I'm against booting out any of the 9 before their replacements actually face them. I mean some people were putting Magus @ 9 but look how he bombed vs. Knux, a character who has lost to Snake almost every contest.
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18 winning seasons, 2 20 strikeout games, #2 all-time in strikeouts, 7 Cy Youngs, arguably the best pitcher ever: Roger Clemens
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:22:17 PM | Message Detail
Link is absolutely beating the holy hell out of Cloud.

After Twilight Princess, Link with over 55% of the vote.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:23:59 PM | Message Detail
Link was bound to get the Nintendo boost too.
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DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:24:02 PM | Message Detail
55% is giving Cloud too much credit, Ulti.

Link with 57%! :P

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Starion | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:24:07 PM | Message Detail
I have a hard time seeing Crono still in the noble nine at that point. Out of all the characters, he is the least likely to have any new games or remakes to freshen up his popularity. Granted, he is still quite strong now even though his game is old but the newer consoles and RPGs could diminish his strength a bit.
From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:24:50 PM | Message Detail
2005 Link, at this point, is probably the strongest character in Contest history.
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DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.
From: ProtomanV4 | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:28:03 PM | Message Detail
I Link gets over and stays over 53-54% this match, any chance of CJC retiring Link for good?

I mean just imagine him w/ TP out. He'd be more of a beast than he ever has been. No character would be able to touch him.
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18 winning seasons, 2 20 strikeout games, #2 all-time in strikeouts, 7 Cy Youngs, arguably the best pitcher ever: Roger Clemens
From: ProtomanV4 | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:29:38 PM | Message Detail
*If


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18 winning seasons, 2 20 strikeout games, #2 all-time in strikeouts, 7 Cy Youngs, arguably the best pitcher ever: Roger Clemens
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:30:01 PM | Message Detail
"I completely don't buy that. I could be wrong, but I see no reason to automatically assume there wasn't, especially since we've been burned so many times before."

You've been burned, maybe, but I've recognized it everytime it came up and also when it didn't. I didn't get burned by 2k3 Kefka. I didn't get burned by Ness. It's pretty clear for most characters when they've been severely SFF'd and that just didn't happen in Vincent vs. Crono.

Even if I was a believer in rSFF we're not talking a significant ammount and Vincent would still outrank 2k3 Bowser by a safe margin. We're talking about a starring role for a character that has never had one, and that character is already very much near elite. It wouldn't take much of a push, really. If they bring the game up to the current standards and it controls as well as DMC I can guarentee you that game will be huge. You do not want to bet against Vincent if that happens, otherwise the people getting burned (twice over, likely) are the haters.

I'll say this clearly, if DoC is half the game that FF7 I'll laugh at anyone who doesn't expect Vincent to be capable of taking out 1/3 of the noble nine.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:31:58 PM | Message Detail
"I Link gets over and stays over 53-54% this match"

That won't happen.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:33:20 PM | Message Detail
Well this is ****ing disgusting.

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
From: ProtomanV4 | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:33:22 PM | Message Detail
At this rate it could. Probably won't as vote totals increase, but could.
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18 winning seasons, 2 20 strikeout games, #2 all-time in strikeouts, 7 Cy Youngs, arguably the best pitcher ever: Roger Clemens
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:34:26 PM | Message Detail
"I have a hard time seeing Crono still in the noble nine at that point."

Okay, he just beat Mega Man who beat Sonic and stood pretty much toe to toe with Mario (though not to the degree of the past) when Mario is stronger than he has ever been. I seriously think you need to reconsider your logic here.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:36:07 PM | Message Detail
Speaking of DoC is it actually a strait up action game? The pictures I've seen seem to suggest at least a few RPGish elements well be implemented into the game, but I know next to nothing about it.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:37:00 PM | Message Detail
You've been burned, maybe, but I've recognized it everytime it came up and also when it didn't. I didn't get burned by 2k3 Kefka. I didn't get burned by Ness. It's pretty clear for most characters when they've been severely SFF'd and that just didn't happen in Vincent vs. Crono.

Meh. I picked Sora to win his four-pack in 2k4, so I can at least recognize the stuff sometimes. And I just think the whole linear thing gets thrown out the window far too badly in matches involving two characters from the same fanbase to be sure.

Clearly, we're going to have to agree to disagree, though.

And as far as the impact of DoC... I think we'll see when we get there. I just wonder if DoC will do that much for Vinny outside of the people who will already vote for him. And I'm unsure if it'll be a big hit anyway. Still, I'm not going to pick Vincent over any N9 characters next year... though I'd probably place him over everyone else.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:38:26 PM | Message Detail
Okay, he just beat Mega Man who beat Sonic and stood pretty much toe to toe with Mario (though not to the degree of the past) when Mario is stronger than he has ever been. I seriously think you need to reconsider your logic here.

Nonetheless, he hasn't gotten any stronger, and has likely dropped. While I think he'll be a force for years to come, how long can CT nostalgia really keep him going?

Though I think 2007's far too early to think about him being out of the picture, yeah.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:39:20 PM | Message Detail
"Still, I'm not going to pick Vincent over any N9 characters next year..."

I don't expect DoC to be out next year, but if it is you'd be making a huge mistake.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Starion | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:41:09 PM | Message Detail
I'm just mainly guessing. The reason why that thought comes to mind is due to possible demographic changes in 2007. By that time, the next-next-gen systems should be out in full force. That typically brings in newer people to gamefaqs. Now, the other members of the noble nine will probably have newer games to prop up their popularity. I haven't heard of any games planned for Crono and his pals in the future. That will hurt his strength with the new younger visitors. Plus there's the question of newer characters as well as Vincent's popularity at that time.
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:45:14 PM | Message Detail
Perhaps, though I doubt it. Snake fought off quite a few perspective contenders (though Bowser negated a lot of that good feeling), and Mega Man and Sonic stayed fairly high. If it was Snake, I'd take Snake and be worried about it. But at the same time...

Oh, right. Thought.

In 2k6 (which would be after TP), who wins a Ganondorf vs. Vincent match? That's the one that I'm most spilt on, honestly, and I think Vinny's only shot there is if DoC comes out.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:45:24 PM | Message Detail
Again, I think you need to reconsider your logic. We went through as big of a shift as we will probably ever have and Crono does not look like he is taking a dive here.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:46:13 PM | Message Detail
Actually, Im not sure if Zelda, if she has a major role in the new game, will pass Ganondorf and get into the Noble Nine.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/20/2005 1:48:34 PM | Message Detail
ink is going to break 53% soon. Are people still thinking that vincent overperformed on crono due to ac? I really doubt it right now given that ac should have a much larger effect on this match then it would in vincent vs. crono.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
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