Oh, and as far as Samus goes... yeah, it's just as I feared. I'm not good enough to come up with an adjustment that puts Mario over Samus. Has anyone tried to use last year's unadjusted Auron?
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

From: transience | Posted: 9/20/2005 12:44:08 AM | #200
oh, and I could see a lot of the board taking Kerrigan over half of the Villain contest had they never seen her in action. I can see it now - debate rages for Kuja vs. Kerrigan, only to find out they both suck royally. people would probably try to adjust it because it 'doesn't look right', too.

I don't think we're stupid enough to try and adjust characters we've seen in action ONCE. *points to Leon*
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I've actually seen some people say that Leon overperformed on Mega Man. you never know.

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It's not impossible, but to say it with enough certitude to actually write it down in the stats is flat-out crazy. Yeah, so GF ends up at something completely crazy like 23% on BL. But is it so crazy when you know he had HL2, a close-up shot (which, like CATS, looks a lot more recognizable than his full-body pic), and his opponent of last year doing great for himself?
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Oh, and as far as Samus goes... yeah, it's just as I feared. I'm not good enough to come up with an adjustment that puts Mario over Samus. Has anyone tried to use last year's unadjusted Auron?

Unless Mario is in the ~43% BL range, it's going to be next to impossible to adjust Samus. Ganondorf, Auron, and Frog are all we have to go on all of them point to her being in the same general area, but when you put Mario up above 43% least squares for the bracket tend to explode. That could be a product off all the boosts we've seen -- seemingly all of Nintendo, the Devil Division, and Master Chief -- so even least squares can't help us much there.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

yeah, exactly. I wouldn't feel confident putting Leon over a number of people below him, from Diablo to KOS-MOS to maybe even Kefka. that said, adjusting him is idiotic. same with Vincent, unless Cloud and Sephiroth are on AC-roids.
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So the problem with the stats thus far:

1) Adjusting Samus.
2) Adjusting Yoshi/Pac-Man/Ocelot
3) The Devil Division
4) Ness/CJ
5) Finding the new fodder line.
6) The problem with Gordon/Leon.
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Summer Contest 2005 - 116 points
Nominate Sub-Zero and The Prince of Persia for SC2k6

I'm rather confident in Vincent being on AC-roids, to be honest. Isn't Knuckles expected to get 45% on a top notch Solid Snake, when he could only do 37% two years ago, and 40% last year on a considerably weakened one?

If I recall, RPGuy's LSEs put Squall at 31.58% on BL, and STILL gave Knuckles and Dante a nice little boost.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

There wasn't a problem with Gordon/Leon.
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BertTheOne | Can't hurt this Bert
Nominate Jay Solano & Ifnkovhgroghprm for SC2K6!

You forgot what the hell happened with Snake/Sora. Other than that, we're free to go.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Yeah, slap Snake/Sora on there. I can't imagine Alucard being so weak.

And I'm not ready to accept that GF is in danger of imploding the universe just yet.
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Summer Contest 2005 - 116 points
Nominate Sub-Zero and The Prince of Persia for SC2k6

If I recall, RPGuy's LSEs put Squall at 31.58% on BL, and STILL gave Knuckles and Dante a nice little boost.

It did, but then Crono had to screw it up by beating Mega Man. I'm not buying an AC boost until I see Cloud and Sephiroth in action, and I don't buy rSFF at all.

And Knux would be expected to get 43.29% on Snake this year, which, considering that Snake is likely >= his 2k3 values implies a hefty boost for Knuckles.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I think CATS would make a great fodder line. Depending on how the ToC goes, I might change my mind to either Kefka or Ocelot.
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Summer Contest 2005 - 116 points
Nominate Sub-Zero and The Prince of Persia for SC2k6

Unless Mario is in the ~43% BL range, it's going to be next to impossible to adjust Samus. Ganondorf, Auron, and Frog are all we have to go on all of them point to her being in the same general area, but when you put Mario up above 43% least squares for the bracket tend to explode. That could be a product off all the boosts we've seen -- seemingly all of Nintendo, the Devil Division, and Master Chief -- so even least squares can't help us much there.

So it's time to get these neurons to work instead of letting math do all the work... Snake 2003 as base looks like it's been adopted as convention already, so Mario's a few hundredths below 42% no matter what we do. That leaves Samus. All adjustments point to her being in the 42-43% area, same as last year. So that'd mean...

Reverse SFF.

From a purely mathematical standpoint, of course... they're so close to begin with that a match rid of SFF is a complete coin toss.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

here are your problems, in order:

1. adjusting Samus's division.
2. Yoshi/Mega Man.
3. Sora. I don't think you adjust him, but it's definitely out of line with even the worst of expectations.
4. the possibility of Vincent overperforming on Crono. unlikely, but possible.
5. the possibility of Kirby overperforming on Bowser, and then Bowser overperforming on Snake thanks to a picture. again, very unlikely, but possible.
6. Ness and Pac-Man. these are minor problems. without looking at numbers, Ness is probably around 24% and Pac-Man around 20%. there's no easy way to adjust them, though.

I can't think of any others. I wouldn't touch Leon at all.
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oh, and I could see a lot of the board taking Kerrigan over half of the Villain contest had they never seen her in action. I can see it now - debate rages for Kuja vs. Kerrigan, only to find out they both suck royally. people would probably try to adjust it because it 'doesn't look right', too.

Having took Master Hand over Kuja, I would have likely quickly taken Kerrigan over MH if they had faced instead. I assume Master Hand would be estimated to win (not sure)...but that would have been a huge upset, even bigger than Kuja/MH.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

not in my mind; I love Kuja. I'd vote Kuja over 90% of the characters in this contest. watching him lose to a ****ing glove makes me sick six months later.

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Well, isn't that fun. We're seeing for ourselves what the single biggest flaw of the X-Sts is... you're only judged on how you go out. I'm surprised someone like Ulti doesn't even understand why there's effort put into minimizing it.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

For the love of everything, where is this crap about adjusting the Devil Division coming from?

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2

Probably every character under the sun in that division boosting to insane levels? Sure sounds familiar (West 2002, 20XX 2004)...
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

so true. Samus crushed Yuri, smashed Frog and did better than Seph did on Ganon and is currently below Kirby. such is the way of simple calculations.
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So naturally, the stats have to be fixed in order to "make them look right". Makes sense.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2

I think Samus should be adjusted through 2k4 unadjusted Auron.
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Summer Contest 2005 - 116 points
Nominate Sub-Zero and The Prince of Persia for SC2k6

Except the last time you argued against that, and you did so for a full year, you got burned. Making the stats "look right" saved us a ****load of points on, let's see, Snake/Bowser, Megaman/Sonic...
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I think you're better off giving Samus a random number than you are adjusting her.

that said, unadjusted Auron is close to her 2k3 number.
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So naturally, the stats have to be fixed in order to "make them look right". Makes sense.

Would you rather we blindly follow them instead? Why does the adjustment bother you so much if you think the Extrapolated Standings are worthless?
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''

The stats don't bother me. The fanboys do.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2

I normally ignore this stuff, but what is an "x-stat fanboy"?
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The stats don't bother me. The fanboys do.

Being skeptical of a part of the Extraploated Standings makes you a fanboy?
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''

If by "fixed" you mean cut off their balls, then yeah, the Stats need it.
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One guru to rule them all. One guru to find them. One guru to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them.

i have a simple solution to this stats problem. Leave them be. If people want to put crono, mm, sonic, kirby... over samus and lose points next contest by doing so then let them -_-
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*sigh* sonic's never going to be in the final 4 -_-

I don't know why anyone would care if I adjust the stats. I enjoy calculating stuff, so playing with the stats is actually fun to me. I know not everyone's like that, but that's me.
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damn, I just did 2k3 Samus = 2k5 Samus and everything looks extremely low. here's to hoping Mario beats Sephiroth or something.
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pics are up.

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I'm still disappointed that Snake is the worst of the Noble Nine :(

...Well besides rSFF Samus
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b64-4.jpg

That's the only one I really like. The rest I don't think are too good.

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

yeah, I find them to be pretty boring myself. I guess all the cool ones have been done before.
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I like all the pics...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!

Link vs Cloud 2k3

Link peaked at 12:30(10:30pm PST)
Link 49.11% 4016
Cloud 50.89% 4161
TOTAL VOTES 8177

Cloud peaked at 6:45(4:45am PST)
Link 47.23% 16658
Cloud 52.77% 18610
TOTAL VOTES 35268

Result closest in percentage to the final results. 11:00(9:00am PST)
Link 48.41% 30899
Cloud 51.59% 32928
TOTAL VOTES 63827

Link's 2nd peak was at 2:15(12:15pm PST)
Link 48.8% 45488
Cloud 51.2% 47732
TOTAL VOTES 93220

Final
Link 48.39% 71438
Cloud Strife 51.61% 76199
TOTAL VOTES 147637

Link vs Cloud 2k4

Link doesn't really have a first peak this time. He starts off very strong but fades quickly.

Cloud peaked at 5:00am PST. That's pretty close to where he peaked in 2k3.
Link 50.11% 9186
Cloud 49.89% 9145
TOTAL VOTES 18331

Result closest in percentage to the final results 8:00am PST, that's about an hour earlier than in 2k3.
Link 51.82% 18419
Cloud 48.18% 17123
TOTAL VOTES 35542

Link peaked at 11:00am PST, once again about an hour earlier than in 2k3
Link 52.63% 31953
Cloud 47.37% 28762
TOTAL VOTES 60715

Final
Link 51.82% 64443
Cloud 48.18% 59910
TOTAL VOTES 124353

There are a few parallels despite the time zone shift and being a year apart. Let's see if they follow a similar pattern this year.
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''

I like the fire-background one best, myself. None of them are too great though.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

damn, TRE just got me hyped for this match. I haven't really been into it until he busted out some numbers.
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Pretty soon I'll see if Crono vs Vincent was really AC or not. I still think Cloud will probably win unless that was a legitimate over performance by Vincent.

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Can't think of a good sig.

The match with the highest vote total this year is Solid Snake vs Zelda with 107362 votes.

Link vs Cloud 2k3 passed that mark at 4:15pm Central Time
Link vs Cloud 2k4 passed that mark at 6:40pm PST

Link vs Cloud 2k3 is ranked 1st in total votes with 147637 votes.
Link vs Cloud 2k4 is ranked 5th in total votes with 124353 votes.

Any guesses on when Link vs Cloud 2k5 will pass 107362 votes and where it will rank in the all time total votes list?
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''

30 minutes... 30 minutes... 30 minutes...

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

if it passes it, it won't be by much. we've got school to contend with, and I bet a lot of people won't know it's Link/Cloud day since they haven't had a match all year. we'll see.
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Link vs Cloud 2k4 was also during the school year. I think the match will easily clear 120k and has a good chance at 130k.
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''

I'd imagine the final will be quite a bit over 120,000.

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

I'd be shocked if this match didn't clear 120k. That it did so even in the abysmal 2k4 voting season should be enough to ensure that it does now.
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*is Karma Hunter*

Mario with 29% of the brackets, bay-bee.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I expect 115. call me pessimistic.
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