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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 260
From: a12340001 | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:24:09 PM | Message Detail
Ulti, what's your name on SWF?
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:26:09 PM | Message Detail
NOBODY EXPECTS RANDOM MvCII UPDATES.

20:15 Mario | 56438 | +670 | 49.66% | Crono | 57213 | +705 | 50.34% | lead of 775 |
20:30 Mario | 57106 | +668 | 49.65% | Crono | 57905 | +692 | 50.35% | lead of 799 |
20:45 Mario | 57760 | +654 | 49.66% | Crono | 58546 | +641 | 50.34% | lead of 786 |
21:00 Mario | 58360 | +600 | 49.66% | Crono | 59170 | +624 | 50.34% | lead of 810 |
21:15 Mario | 58941 | +581 | 49.66% | Crono | 59759 | +589 | 50.34% | lead of 818 |
21:30 Mario | 59508 | +567 | 49.66% | Crono | 60330 | +571 | 50.34% | lead of 822 |
21:45 Mario | 60105 | +597 | 49.68% | Crono | 60879 | +549 | 50.32% | lead of 774 |
22:00 Mario | 60646 | +541 | 49.68% | Crono | 61435 | +556 | 50.32% | lead of 789 |
22:15 Mario | 61261 | +615 | 49.69% | Crono | 62024 | +589 | 50.31% | lead of 763 |
22:30 Mario | 61883 | +622 | 49.73% | Crono | 62558 | +534 | 50.27% | lead of 675 |
22:45 Mario | 62520 | +637 | 49.77% | Crono | 63091 | +533 | 50.23% | lead of 571 |
23:00 Mario | 63150 | +630 | 49.80% | Crono | 63661 | +570 | 50.20% | lead of 511 |
23:15 Mario | 63823 | +673 | 49.85% | Crono | 64204 | +543 | 50.15% | lead of 381 |
23:30 Mario | 64531 | +708 | 49.89% | Crono | 64826 | +622 | 50.11% | lead of 295 |
23:45 Mario | 65273 | +742 | 49.94% | Crono | 65424 | +598 | 50.06% | lead of 151 |

24:00 Mario | 66266 | +993 | 50.03% | Crono | 66174 | +750 | 49.97% | lead of 92 |
24:07 Mario | 66571 | +305 | 50.05% | Crono | 66434 | +260 | 49.95% | lead of 137 |

I bolded my favorite.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:27:05 PM | Message Detail
...SWF? o_O

From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:30:44 PM | Message Detail | #018
No kidding. Also, two things.

1. Are you going to be writing the characters wirteups for MMXCalibur's site again?
2. Are you going to do the Post-Conetst Analysis?


Yes to both. And no, I'm not going to just sit and bash the stats. I'll try to be as pro as usual.

We <3 Katamari comes out tomorrow!

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:27:53 PM | Message Detail
man, that thing still hurts to look at. get it away!
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From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:28:27 PM | Message Detail
Ulti, don't you start PCA early, usually?

Not to poke a fire under your ass or anything, but...
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DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:29:01 PM | Message Detail
You mean for a contest that isn't over for another three days?

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:29:20 PM | Message Detail
That's good. I love the PCAs.

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Heroic Mario is sexually stimulated by being wrong.- Digital Pad
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:29:54 PM | Message Detail
Am I missing anything? I'm packing to outrun Rita... <_<
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:30:24 PM | Message Detail
Nothing to see here.
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"Stay there for me, trapped in memories."
"I...I won't become a memory."
From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:31:00 PM | Message Detail
You mean for a contest that isn't over for another three days?

Well....
Cloud, Seph, and Link aren't in this contest.... And you can get by Mario-Joanna without making any bold predict-..
.....
You, know. Do what you want. It's your thing. Sorry.
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DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.
From: Garsha | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:32:17 PM | Message Detail
And no, I'm not going to just sit and bash the stats. I'll try to be as pro as usual.

Come on, bash the X-Stats!
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Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfic: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579546
End of message. ~ Garsha
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:32:42 PM | Message Detail
I'll see what I'm up for after football. The point is that football is on. You ain't getting squat outta me for at least another few hours <3

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:34:46 PM | Message Detail
I'll see what I'm up for after football. The point is that football is on. You ain't getting squat outta me for at least another few hours <3

Completely forgot. I knew something was wrong when I found myself flipping between UPN and CBS wondering what the hell I was doing...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Samurai7 | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:37:30 PM | Message Detail
Crono has gained every year... we don't know about this one yet. If Crono has gained, many people say it is because how well he does in this contest. For example in 2k2 people saw Crono beat Snake. Some of them have never even heard of Crono before. They think to themselves 'who is this guy pwning badass Snake?'. They find he is from Chrono Trigger, they get the ROM, they become fans. It isn't proven but its a theory.

Now, if there has been a large voter shift. That means that there are probably even more people to expose to the 'Who the hell is Crono?' experience. With a performace as good as getting second they might be interested in getting the ROM and experiencing Chrono Trigger. Wham, new fans. I would've never bought this myself.... but why else would Crono have gotten stronger from 2k2 to 2k3 to 2k4?

Any character that isn't from an RPG needs new games to stay strong. The lack of character focus in the game causes people to vote for the character they enjoyed playins as, playing with the most. However in an RPG scenario the character is usually remembered for a long time simply because RPGs are more story and character driven then other genres. Due to this, the popularity of other characters will slowly degrade over time, where as RPG characters with nothing new (Crono, Cloud, Sephiroth (Pre-AC of course)) will gain as their games age and gain exposure until they peak.

These are the reasons that it could be possible for Crono to win in the future, combined with more voter shifts of course.
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:46:27 PM | Message Detail

Perhaps you've never heard of subtitles?


Subtitles? No, what are those?!?!

I don't like watching with subtitles, I like hearing and understanding what was said.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 5:47:09 PM | Message Detail
awesome, I'm looking forward to it, Ulti.

I say wait until the contest is over before writing it. it's best to know what happened - no point in saying there's a all around Nintendo boost if Cloud crushes Link, for example.
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:05:38 PM | Message Detail
Mario by the hour:
18:00 | 55.03%
17:00 | 55.57%
16:00 | 55.74%
15:00 | 55.93%
14:00 | 56.56%
13:00 | 55.68%
12:00 | 53.78%
11:00 | 51.44%
10:00 | 52.73%
09:00 | 54.00%
08:00 | 52.93%
07:00 | 53.63%
06:00 | 53.84%
05:00 | 53.87%
04:00 | 54.85%
03:00 | 51.62%
02:00 | 51.21%
01:00 | 51.27%

He's finally starting to slow down a bit. I wonder if it's too much to ask for Mario to win by 10k votes?

Top 20:
1 Mario 50.00
2 Crono 45.69
3 Mega Man 44.46
4 Sonic the Hedgehog 44.13
5 Solid Snake 42.79
6 Bowser 42.29
7 Kirby 40.49
8 Vincent Valentine 40.30
9 Samus 40.21
10 Squall Leonhart 39.82
11 Zelda 39.02
12 Tifa Lockheart 38.48
13 Zero 37.14
14 Dante 37.07
15 Knuckles the Echidna 36.80
16 Magus 36.16
17 Luigi 35.89
18 Master Chief 35.37
19 Donkey Kong 34.81
20 Ryu 34.69

Zero has overtaken Dante and Ryu has a slim chance of beating out Donkey Kong if Mario keeps gaining.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:09:54 PM | Message Detail
Mario was definitely roid induce this year!

Good Game Mario! If anyone not Crono was to win this, Mario deserves it more than anyone else.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:12:08 PM | Message Detail
oh, and:

HOLY CRAP KATAMARI 2'S OUT TOMORROW. I had completely forgotten it was coming out soon. looks like I'm getting up early to go to the store tomororw.
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:13:19 PM | Message Detail
We <3 Katamari comes out tomorrow? YES!
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:14:20 PM | Message Detail
yeah, apparently. I have the japanese version and it's freaking awesome.
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From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:25:22 PM | Message Detail
Wow. Lots of movement in this topic. How about dem x-stats?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:30:28 PM | Message Detail
So...who's looking forward to Crono/Samus next year...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:32:10 PM | Message Detail
...

I need to contract some disease by tomorrow so I can miss school and play WLK more >_>
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:35:40 PM | Message Detail
I need to contract some disease by tomorrow so I can miss Biology and...well, not go to Biology.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:36:01 PM | Message Detail
Oh man, this year's stats are priceless.

Top 20:
1 Mario 50.00

King of the Mountain by far...too far.

2 Crono 45.69
3 Mega Man 44.46
4 Sonic the Hedgehog 44.13
5 Solid Snake 42.79
6 Bowser 42.29

Wow, Snake got alot closer to Mega, and Bowser being up so high is so....weird.

7 Kirby 40.49
8 Vincent Valentine 40.30
9 Samus 40.21
10 Squall Leonhart 39.82

Speaking of weird, this is just great. Kirby over Vincent, and both over Samus. Squall goes from losing 60-40 to Samus, to almost beating her.

11 Zelda 39.02
12 Tifa Lockheart 38.48
13 Zero 37.14
14 Dante 37.07
15 Knuckles the Echidna 36.80
16 Magus 36.16
17 Luigi 35.89
18 Master Chief 35.37
19 Donkey Kong 34.81
20 Ryu 34.69

Zelda over Tifa...it could happen. Knuckles 15th is nice. Luigi and Donkey Kong are so damn high it's not even funny. I mean, DK > RYU?!?!?!?!?!

Anyway, I know these are all based off Mario, but even under Base Link, it's going to look weird.
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Mario vs. Crono - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Mario (124/160)
From: Just Some Person | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:39:36 PM | Message Detail
- Twilight Princess delayed into 2006
- Advent Children leaked onto the Interweb

...smells like a close match (or a Cloud victory).

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"Being a Hunter has to be the best job in the world! Well, next to pimp..."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:54:43 PM | Message Detail
It depends on how much you wanna put into LoZ:TP hype, really.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:01:44 PM | Message Detail
Mario by the hour, again!

19:00 | 55.26%
18:00 | 55.03%
17:00 | 55.57%
16:00 | 55.74%
15:00 | 55.93%
14:00 | 56.56%
13:00 | 55.68%
12:00 | 53.78%
11:00 | 51.44%
10:00 | 52.73%
09:00 | 54.00%
08:00 | 52.93%
07:00 | 53.63%
06:00 | 53.84%
05:00 | 53.87%
04:00 | 54.85%
03:00 | 51.62%
02:00 | 51.21%
01:00 | 51.27%

He refuses to dip under 55%!
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:12:21 PM | Message Detail
He shouldn't ever dip under 55%, either, for any reason whatsoever. Way to stay true, Mario.

God, am I satisfied with Mario putting Crono to shame. It especially pleases me since it was agreed on by most that Crono won the feud despite only winning once of their then-three encounters.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:15:22 PM | Message Detail
It especially pleases me since it was agreed on by most that Crono won the feud despite only winning once of their then-three encounters.

I think a lot of that had to do with Mario's second win being obviously illegitimate.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:17:22 PM | Message Detail
Mario didn't win the first two by much, so you have to admit that Crono's beatdown of Mario last year gave him a definite edge in the "rivalry". I'm rather shocked that, given how Mario has performed this year and how Crono has, that anyone thought this would be a nailbiter.
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:19:11 PM | Message Detail
God, am I satisfied with Mario putting Crono to shame. It especially pleases me since it was agreed on by most that Crono won the feud despite only winning once of their then-three encounters.

Yeah, he's winning by far more than Crono did last year, and he has a shot at a 10,000 vote lead -- he needs 103 votes/15 minutes, which he might be able to get. His last 4 have been 105, 113, 88, and 148. Beautiful.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:23:23 PM | Message Detail
After seeing todays results, Solid Snake vs Sonic would be a very interesting match.
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:31:03 PM | Message Detail
I wonder if any of this can be attributed to a Crono > Mega Man backlash. I mean, it is the very next day...
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There is only one war of the brood!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:31:04 PM | Message Detail
I'm not really arguin' whether or not Crono deserved that "edge" or not (depends on your stance), I'm just saying I'm happy that now there is no question.


FACT or FICTION: Crono will never beat Mario again.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:31:56 PM | Message Detail
You mean like Sephiroth got backlash in 2k3?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:32:47 PM | Message Detail
Even though Magus 'bombed' it still looks like he has strength. Frog's the only real loser.
From: Samurai7 | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:33:37 PM | Message Detail
fiction
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:38:31 PM | Message Detail
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:35:40 PM | #125
I need to contract some disease by tomorrow so I can miss Biology and...well, not go to Biology.

Heh, I feel the same way about Micro. God, that class is a pain in the ass.

So, anyone seen any good Link/Cloud or Mario/Sephiroth pics yet?
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:39:32 PM | Message Detail
Yuri is gonna look so bad in the unadjusted stats.
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Summer Contest 2005 - 116 points
Nominate Sub-Zero and The Prince of Persia for SC2k6
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:41:12 PM | Message Detail
I'll never say never. if RPGs become the focus of the site like they were a couple of years ago, Crono's got every chance in the world to beat him. and if Crono ever got a new game? watch out.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:41:57 PM | Message Detail
I haven't seen ANY pics for Link/Cloud, good or bad.

I don't know if it's just me or not, but I'd like to see a Wind Waker pic be used sometime this year. Just one pic somewhere would make me happy.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:43:40 PM | Message Detail
Speaking of new games, if Mario can get a (huge) boost out of thin air, I wonder what Super Mario 128 being a killer app for the Revolution at launch could do for him?
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:46:48 PM | Message Detail
Mario 128 (a misnomer at this point) wouldn't do half the good for Mario as CT 2 would for Crono. Mario is already known worldwide; him starring in a new game isn't going to change many people's opinions of him. Crono, on the other hand..
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From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:48:34 PM | Message Detail
Speaking of new games, if Mario can get a (huge) boost out of thin air, I wonder what Super Mario 128 being a killer app for the Revolution at launch could do for him?

Nintendo's market share isn't as big as it was in the SNES/N64 era. So I wouldn't count on him putting up Link-like numbers.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:49:40 PM | Message Detail
I agree a new game would do Crono alot better than one would for Mario...but with a much newer generation of gamers coming in when the new systems hit and Mario 128/SSBO (or is it SSBR?) are released, on top of what Mario is doing today, it's really hard to say Crono has a chance any time soon...mmaayybbee ever, depending on if he ever gets another game or not.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: PokemonPatriarch | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:55:42 PM | Message Detail
The reason that I have so little faith in the X-stats is not bowser placing high, samus placing low, etcetc...

it's that if you went by the X-stats, then you had no HOPE of predicting the winner of the tournament. By the X-stat standards, all of the noble nine, bar sonic and snake, could beat Mario.

Well, looks like with the X-stats against him, Mario outplaces them, and is now only inferior to Clinkeroth. Way to go, little mustachio'd plumber...way to go.
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"I ish the Weedle...who shall evolve to Beedrill, and kick Butterfree's arse!"
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:59:20 PM | Message Detail
Well, looks like with the X-stats against him, Mario outplaces them, and is now only inferior to Clinkeroth. Way to go, little mustachio'd plumber...way to go.

I'm not surprised, really...the Link/Mario tag team is there to cancel out the Could/Sephiroth tag team.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:18:10 PM | Message Detail
Hey, Crono won that update!

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
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