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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 260
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:17:01 PM | Message Detail
The arguing over how to adjust the X-Stats has already begun, along with all of the standard "we need to make this look as correct as possible" arguments.

Reminds me of your standard debate between Melee Back Room people, except worse.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:17:25 PM | Message Detail
Cloud Strife for the win!
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:18:30 PM | Message Detail
After seeing what mario has done, Cloud has no chance.

---
Heroic Mario is sexually stimulated by being wrong.- Digital Pad
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:18:56 PM | Message Detail
Rawr!
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Link2dapast | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:19:08 PM | Message Detail
<33333333333333 Link. GOGOGOOGOGOGO LINK!!!!! T-MINUS 11 HOURS!!!!
---
*~Swift~*
GO GIANTS! 1-0 Week 2 @ New Orleans
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:19:11 PM | Message Detail
Speaking of the MBR, have any of you guys actually seen the MBR? It's.... sad.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:19:29 PM | Message Detail
Ah, trying to make a correlation between something that isn't there, I see.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:19:44 PM | Message Detail
No. Inform me.

---
Heroic Mario is sexually stimulated by being wrong.- Digital Pad
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:19:52 PM | Message Detail
Mario and Crono's records combined (BEFORE Mario/Crono): 26-0
Mario/Crono record: Mario leads 3-1
Mario and Crono's records combined (AFTER Mario/Crono): 0-3

Makes you wonder about Mario's chances against Sephiroth.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:20:06 PM | Message Detail
THE match is here tomorrow... <3

---
“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:20:44 PM | Message Detail
Makes you wonder about Mario's chances against Sephiroth.

0%

Heh.

---
“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:21:06 PM | Message Detail
Yarr! T'day be national Talk Like a Pirate Day, so ye scurvy mates best get talkin' like pirates. Pirate keyboard strongly recommended: http://www.ahajokes.com/cartoon/pirate_keyboard.jpg
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:22:09 PM | Message Detail
National Talk like a Pirate Day? Blast, and no Legendary Vyse to use.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:22:43 PM | Message Detail
The question is not if Sephiroth beats Mario,the question is by how much he will win.What percentage we except?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:25:22 PM | Message Detail
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:19:44 PM | Message Detail | #008
No. Inform me.


Within a few hours, you're going to see stat junkies argue and argue and make up every factor under the sun in an effort to make a ton of unnecessary adjustments to the stats. The reason? "They need to look right" ; "Vincent can't possibly rank that high" ; "Sora can't possibly be that low" ; [Insert any one of a hundred other made-up statements by someone trying to make the stats perfect despite the fact that they never will be].

The MBR are the people who come up with the tier lists for SSBM. I don't need to say much else, though some of the people in this topic would fit right in with those guys.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:27:20 PM | Message Detail
...Oh. Tiers.

*was there when the tier wars took place*

Worst flame wars I've ever seen.

---
Heroic Mario is sexually stimulated by being wrong.- Digital Pad
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:29:41 PM | Message Detail
They still go on. The people in the MBR act as if the tiers are life and death. Reminds me of a certain other class of people and a certain set of stats related to these contests.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:30:44 PM | Message Detail
No kidding. Also, two things.

1. Are you going to be writing the characters wirteups for MMXCalibur's site again?
2. Are you going to do the Post-Conetst Analysis?

---
Heroic Mario is sexually stimulated by being wrong.- Digital Pad
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:30:51 PM | Message Detail
"Vincent can't possibly rank that high"

No one would dare say that. Besides, with the way Crono is losing to Mario I think Vincent is going to be about where he's expected to be sans adjustment. I'm not sure why people think AC created a sizable boost for him (it shouldn't have pushed more than .5% in the actual match) but with AC actually coming out there's no doubt the boost will only look "wrong" for everybody else in his division next year if it was sizable.
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: plasmabeam | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:31:25 PM | Message Detail
I get a tie for 1st for one day... not bad

---
SC2K5 - 153 points, Next Pick: Crono Leaderboard: #5
Squall Leonhart
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:08:49 PM | Message Detail
if Ulti does a PCA, I'm setting the over-under for making fun of the x-stats at approximately 5,459,412.
---
.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:10:13 PM | Message Detail
The only SFF adjustments that need to be made (other than the obvious ones) are the ones dealing with Yoshi.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:10:43 PM | Message Detail
http://mariovscrono.ytmnd.com/

Just found that on YTMND.

Well, it looks like Mario finally wins a contest. Yay.
---
Today's subliminal thought is:
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:12:26 PM | Message Detail
Im all for simply not adjusting. We will never agree on adjustments. For example, I think Diablo overperformed on Ganondorf because of the momentum behind him. A lot of people wanted a new Starcraft. So I think 'Dorf is still safely around or a bit under his Spring 2k5 numbers. Im never going to be able to convince people of that. Same for where I actually think Kirby, Sora, Tidus, Knuckles, and others are. So lets just not adjust.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:13:06 PM | Message Detail
So I come back to my main account to find out that I've been Warned for the first time ever...for inappropriate use of the 'r-word' in a metaphor. I fear actually using the word for being tossed out of here altogether.

The modding situation here has really gotten out of control.
---
*is Karma Hunter*
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:14:40 PM | Message Detail
From the looks of it, there will be at least two sets of extrapolated standings this year. Of course, I doubt they'll be taken as seriously as before. We've seen how quickly things can change. The stats are nothing more than a general guideline, and even a slight "voting shift" is enough to render them utterly useless.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:14:42 PM | Message Detail
then everyone should either make their own x-stats or not pay attention to the sc2k5 ones. I really don't care if someone's x-stats look different to mine, because if I don't believe the sc2k5 x-stats I'm just not going to pick a bracket based on what they look like.

and the "r-word"?

---
.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:16:18 PM | Message Detail
It's not a banned word...but I'm certainly not going to use it after what I just got hit with. Use your imagination, it can't be any more ridiculous than what it actually was...
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: XxBilly2xX | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:16:45 PM | Message Detail
Tell me about it.

*Cries for XxSoulxX*
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This is not a sig, just felt like writing something down here.
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:17:38 PM | Message Detail
awesome. I'm probably the only person who has no alts and doesn't care to make one. if I get warned, I'll just go away until I'm unwarned.
---
.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:17:42 PM | Message Detail
Im just going to do my rankings like usual. And never pay attention to this board again.

I was convinced by this board to change:
Sora over Alucard
Dante over Terra
Link over Cloud
Mario over Samus


Made 4 adjustments and 3 of them have proven wrong so far.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:18:30 PM | Message Detail
trans, believe me you arent the only one. There are actually quite a few of us no-alters out there.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:18:40 PM | Message Detail
don't blame the board, you're the one who made the changes.
---
.
From: goku z | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:19:22 PM | Message Detail
I will be in 12th place after Mario wins today...how many of the 11 ahead of me took Cloud or Mario over Link/Sephiroth, do you think?
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Summer Contest 2005 Winner: Mario
Mario will SFF Samus, and pull it out against Crono.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:20:10 PM | Message Detail
Oh Im not blaming the board, I am blaming myself for listening to the board.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:22:31 PM | Message Detail
Well, Mario was making some good gains, but Crono has seemed to stall him momentarily...

*punches in numbers*

Mario, my boy, we're going to need to roughly triple to quadruple this pace in order to stay on target. Let's get a move on.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:22:42 PM | Message Detail
just to put it out there, I made the following changes to my bracket after I initially made it:

- Vivi over Zelda
- Kratos over Diablo
- Tidus over Kirby
- Dante over Vincent
- CJ over Ness
- MM over Sonic

with the exception of MM/Sonic, I should never have touched my bracket.
---
.
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:25:48 PM | Message Detail
My last changes would probably be:

- Mario over Samus
- Bowser over Snake
- Terra over both Dance and Vincent (....I know)
- Mario over Crono
---
MARIOWNED
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:26:03 PM | Message Detail
There is only one thing I switched to because of the board:

Tidus over Kirby.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:26:12 PM | Message Detail
Well, look on the bright side. Even with the five incorrect changes for your one correct change, you only wound up with a net loss of three points. Gotta love our weighted scoring system; I know I do. =P
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:27:27 PM | Message Detail
The votes/15 minutes has fallen by more than 150 over the past half hour. We're entering into the evening vote, and when vote demographics shift, sometimes one character reaches their new total before the other character. For instance, Crono won the 11:00 update (right before the after-school vote), because his vote totals were climbing as Mario's stayed constant. Mario exploded half an hour later. That could be happening here, though I don't think Mario's going to do anymore exploding, persay.

...And, as I refresh, Mario's back up to 54.18%, the highest he's been, so, if he keeps that up, that's what I think likely happened.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:28:06 PM | Message Detail
well, let's add up Samus over Mario, shall we?

8... 16.. 32..

---
.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:29:54 PM | Message Detail
Just to rub it in a bit, here are the changes I made during the last few days:

Vercetti over Kefka
Mario over Samus
Mario over Snake
Mario over Crono

=P
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:30:37 PM | Message Detail
:)

I actually made TV over Kefka as well. yay for pointless one point wins!
---
.
From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:32:03 PM | Message Detail
Mario and Crono's records combined (BEFORE Mario/Crono): 26-0
Mario/Crono record: Mario leads 3-1
Mario and Crono's records combined (AFTER Mario/Crono): 0-3

Makes you wonder about Mario's chances against Sephiroth.


Not really
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:32:11 PM | Message Detail
Oh yeah, I came up with a primitive list, that will be wittled down, on who deserves a shot or didnt do well but redeserves a shot in the contest next year:

Sub-Zero
Yoshimitsu
Joanna Dark (PD O)
Red XIII
Seifer
Ashe/Vann (IF FFXII comes out before the contest)
Midna
Fire Emblem character peroid (Either from the new Gamecube game, GBA game, Marth or Roy)
Fox
The Prince
Raiden
Shadow the Hedgehog

I know I am missing some but thats 12 characters.

Characters that should be taken out:
Yuri
Manny
Laharl
Ocelot
CJ
Big Boss
Vyse
Kerrigan
Agent 47
Wesker
KoaC
Lloyd
Geno
Cecil
Jin


---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:33:25 PM | Message Detail
no Jay Solano? shut yo mouth.
---
.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:33:31 PM | Message Detail
We <3 Katamari would easily boost The King of All Cosmos into the Top 10.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:33:37 PM | Message Detail
The Prince would probably get owned hard, and if the FE character isn't Roy or Marth, it wouldn't be worth it.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:34:58 PM | Message Detail
Sub-Zero, Fox, and Raiden all deserve another shot at this thing.
---
*is Karma Hunter*
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