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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 259
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:22:40 PM | Message Detail
Honestly, plenty of FFVII fans know that Advent Children is out there, and nothing is preventing them from getting it if they really want it.

I'm aware of thast, but I doubt it really could have that large of an effect at this point. Maybe 1,000 votes. I couldn't see much more being drawn from the voters.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:23:27 PM | Message Detail
You really think that few FFVII fans are interested in/know about it?
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:24:06 PM | Message Detail
Out of the people who bother voting in the poll? Yes.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:24:41 PM | Message Detail
Feel free to think that if you want.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:25:17 PM | Message Detail
The thing is, this AC leak has become bigger than I think most of us could have anticipated. I mean, everywhere I go--and I mean EVERYWHERE--it's there. People are constantly abuzz about it, talking about it, it's become a phenomenon overnight. It *could* be a significant factor, and I'm anxious to either confirm or reject that theory.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:26:04 PM | Message Detail
I don't see any reason that a substantial amount of voters would have their votes swayed. How many people voting in that poll do you figure even saw it? How many actually had their votes affected? I don't think it could have been very many.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:26:47 PM | Message Detail
It doesn't take much to sway your vote if you really enjoyed the movie, and from what I've seen, the majority do.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:27:02 PM | Message Detail
What makes you think all of the people that came here after seeing AC were coming here before it?
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:27:44 PM | Message Detail
Feel free to think that if you want.

How much would link need to get tomorrow to convince you that it isn't a major factor? also keep in mind that vincent vs. crono was barely after the movie leaked.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:28:23 PM | Message Detail
What makes you think all of the people that came here after seeing AC were coming here before it?

That's actually my main argument for any AC impact, and it's likely the reason why FFVII is so damn high in the FAQs right now.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:29:41 PM | Message Detail
FF7 interest on this site peaked after that match, too. When those two were going at it the FF7 FAQ hadn't hit #3 yet, more people have seen it and are coming in. Besides, who is saying it's enough to put Cloud over Link for a certainty? It just gives him more of a fighting chance after last time.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:30:06 PM | Message Detail
Honestly, plenty of FFVII fans know that Advent Children is out there, and nothing is preventing them from getting it if they really want it.

It's still in Japanese though. If I were a huge FFVII fan, I would want to wait until the English version to get the full effect. And the people that are downloading the movie now probably aren't light/casual fans. They're probably the more hardcore fans who would be voting for Vincent anyway. It's just that Vincent didn't do that well to have necessitated some outside factor. How long had the movie even been out by match time?
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:31:48 PM | Message Detail
The thing is though, that even if AC had been released here, Link still likely has the Nintendo boost to ward off the effects of it.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:32:07 PM | Message Detail
Mario's lead is over 5000 votes, and he's closing in on 54%. <3
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:32:48 PM | Message Detail
I'm not saying it won't help cloud, but I doubt it did much of anything for vincent. The movie had been just been leaked around the time that match happened. Not nearly as many people had seen it then.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:32:54 PM | Message Detail
If I were a huge FFVII fan, I would want to wait until the English version to get the full effect

Honestly, a huge FFVII fan wouldn't bother to wait if he could get his hands on it, speaking from personal experience.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:33:21 PM | Message Detail
So yeah... I had Mario over Crono... and was mauled by like 95 people saying... "Crono's the favorite, he beat Mario 53-47 last year"!

So I said... "why can't Mario do a swing in the opposite direction this year? Crono had no reason to last year, and Mario has no reason to this year... changes can happen for no reason whatsoever".

Why am I saying this now? Well, now Mario's beating Crono 53+-47- this year... just kinda cool that it worked out that way.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:34:17 PM | Message Detail
"It's still in Japanese though."

Perhaps you've never heard of subtitles?

"If I were a huge FFVII fan, I would want to wait until the English version to get the full effect."

Using the word wait pretty much proves you aren't a huge fan.

"And the people that are downloading the movie now probably aren't light/casual fans."

Duh.

"They're probably the more hardcore fans who would be voting for Vincent anyway."

Probably, but they probably just recently had the urge to play FF7 again which may have brought them to GameFAQs when otherwise they wouldn't have reason to come here.

"It's just that Vincent didn't do that well to have necessitated some outside factor."

I agree, he's always been an absolute badass. We're not talking a large boost here, since the popularity hadn't even peaked by the time his match with Crono rolled around.

"How long had the movie even been out by match time?"

Like, 3 days or so.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:34:52 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and if/when Mario gets Crono down to 45.9%, Kirby overtakes Vincent to rank 8th. And, honestly, seeing Kirby up there is just as weird as seeing Vincent up there, so if you want to argue for rSFF in Crono/Vincent why not throw in Bowser/Kirby? I'd rather leave both alone, but consistency is good.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:35:04 PM | Message Detail
Lopen, I applaud you for making this pick correctly. However, I curse you for giving me hope on about a hundred other picks out there that fell flat on their face or completely bombed. So it sorta evens out.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:36:01 PM | Message Detail
"Link still likely has the Nintendo boost to ward off the effects of it."

There is no Nintendo boost. It's an illusion, only the Mario crew and Kirby recieved a boost.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:36:59 PM | Message Detail
Kirby/Bowser rSFF was considered briefly by at least a few people here. Probably asterisk worthy...

*proceeds to mark up bracket with scores of asterisks for every slightly debateable match*
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:37:32 PM | Message Detail
There is no Nintendo boost. It's an illusion, only the Mario crew and Kirby recieved a boost.

And Ganondorf (between 2k4 and the Spring), and Zelda (between 2k3 and now), and likely Ness. And DK. Who's missing there?
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:38:54 PM | Message Detail
I'm pretty sure that Chichiri argues that Zelda boosted in 2k4 and wasn't around to show it off, Ganondorf fluked his percentage against Sephy, Samus didn't boost and may have fell, and DK...

...Donkey Konga?
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:39:57 PM | Message Detail
After kirby vs. tidus it really shouldn't be surprising that kirby is that close to bowser. He earned his place there. If anything is affecting his ranking it's solid ****, which may or may not have been a factor.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:40:02 PM | Message Detail
It's still in Japanese though. If I were a huge FFVII fan, I would want to wait until the English version to get the full effect. And the people that are downloading the movie now probably aren't light/casual fans. They're probably the more hardcore fans who would be voting for Vincent anyway. It's just that Vincent didn't do that well to have necessitated some outside factor. How long had the movie even been out by match time?

It's already been subbed in English, and people on GameFAQs prefer subbing to dubbing by a wide margin, IIRC.

And you're underestimating the number of people who've downloaded it. It's been Torrented over 100,000 times, and there have been plenty of dls besides Torrenting as well. These people would be more likely to go to GameFAQs than the average person, since they're pretty clearly skilled Internet users. I'd guess that at least 20,000 poll voters have seen AC so far...Probably more than have played Tales of Symphonia, for comparison. I saw it the day it was subbed, and I'm not even that big of an FFVII fan.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:41:23 PM | Message Detail
Interesting fact: My upset ridden bracket still gets more points than the "cookie cutter" bracket.

So yeah, take that!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:42:06 PM | Message Detail
Mario, don't play around here. If you're gonna break 54%, then ****ing do it.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:42:33 PM | Message Detail
why cant dk have had a huge increase? what game has the gc had recently? *crickets chirp* come on...surely there must have been one exclusive game gc game....oh thats it! dk:jungle beat. If a person who only owned a gc wanted a new gc game, thats all the choice they had. they may have calused an increase right?
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current goty:Advance wars duel strike
possible goty contenders: castlevania dos, we love katamari, mario kart ds
From: MUKMASTER2 | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:43:51 PM | Message Detail
Hooray for Mario!
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"Yes, yes, yes….the black wind howls…wails…blows…….does a somersault….whatever" ~MMXcalibur
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:45:51 PM | Message Detail
Kirby/Bowser rSFF was considered briefly by at least a few people here. Probably asterisk worthy...

Nah, it wasn't Kirby/Bowser rSFF, it was Bowser overperforming on Snake...at least enough that Zelda should be > Kirby.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:46:29 PM | Message Detail
And you're underestimating the number of people who've downloaded it. It's been Torrented over 100,000 times

That wouldn't surprise me, but where in the nine shades of hell did you get that figure from?
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:47:10 PM | Message Detail
Do you want to know *how* many asterisks I have in the Dream Division already...on *principle*? I'll give you a hint...even *more* than are in this post!
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:47:28 PM | Message Detail
at least enough that Zelda should be > Kirby.

We can't know that for sure. Especially after what kirby did to tidus.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:47:37 PM | Message Detail
KH covered most of the points I'd hit, though with far less vigor than I was attempting before my browser crashed. To follow up, Ness shows no signs of a boost at all. DK is behind MC who may have gained a little more than expected by merit of having even PP with Crono to take the division AND we can't even be sure where he stood last year. Unless Link beats Cloud worse than he did last year I'm chalking it up to Mario crew, Kirby and MAYBE DK. That's it.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:48:00 PM | Message Detail
That wouldn't surprise me, but where in the nine shades of hell did you get that figure from?

Just adding up the figures on TR.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:50:56 PM | Message Detail
Looking there, the figures don't seem to add up quite that high.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:52:00 PM | Message Detail
Heck, Ganondorf is looking more and more overrated in the Spring Contest all the time anyway. Everyone has his half of the bracket appears to have taken a dive since the Spring.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:53:04 PM | Message Detail
Everyone ON his half of the bracket, that should say.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:54:34 PM | Message Detail
I almost missed the whole virtue of Kefka and Diablo both looking like they were overrated via their SpC2k5 performances. Looks like Bowser really might > Ganondorf indirectly. o.O

Does Wesker line up with that too?
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:55:43 PM | Message Detail
Gee, I've only been saying that about Ganon for how long now?
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:55:57 PM | Message Detail
Looking there, the figures don't seem to add up quite that high.

Well, that was just an estimation. I figure there're a couple that aren't on there too, which would push it over that number.

Heck, Ganondorf is looking more and more overrated in the Spring Contest all the time anyway. Everyone has his half of the bracket appears to have taken a dive since the Spring.

2k5 CATS makes Ganon look even better...Luca Blight looks pretty good if you go through 2k5 Magus as well. And what about Wesker? How's he looking in comparison? The only ones that really go against Ganon are Kefka and Diablo.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:56:25 PM | Message Detail
No, Wesker looks better than he did in the Spring; he'd now be expected to get 34.43% on Kefka.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:57:36 PM | Message Detail
Eh, CATS went through MC and we all know how that goes, I ain't touching Magus with a ten-foot pole at this point, and...I still don't know what to make of Wesker.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:58:11 PM | Message Detail
LOL Angel Pic factor? <_______<
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:58:58 PM | Message Detail
Clearly there was an anomaly involving Wesker... that means Luca's rating is odd as well, not that we have a solid number to go by on him. My assumption is, though, that Magus is where I placed him a year ago: ~27%, taking Luca off of that...
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 3:01:20 PM | Message Detail
Mario, you freaking tease. 53.99% at the hour mark is not funny.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/19/2005 3:01:44 PM | Message Detail
My assumption is, though, that Magus is where I placed him a year ago: ~27%, taking Luca off of that...

...Magus at 27% makes Crono look really, REALLY bad...and it does the same thing to Dante, Vincent, Squall, Knuckles, Terra, and Kerrigan too. Hell, if Magus were at 27%, Mario would have over 60% right now...which he obviously doesn't.

Eh, CATS went through MC and we all know how that goes, I ain't touching Magus with a ten-foot pole at this point, and...I still don't know what to make of Wesker.

I think we can acknowledge that MC DID have a substantial increase, the only question is the size of that increase.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 3:02:00 PM | Message Detail
Mario by the hour:
15:00 | 55.93%
14:00 | 56.56%
13:00 | 55.68%
12:00 | 53.78%
11:00 | 51.44%
10:00 | 52.73%
09:00 | 54.00%
08:00 | 52.93%
07:00 | 53.63%
06:00 | 53.84%
05:00 | 53.87%
04:00 | 54.85%
03:00 | 51.62%
02:00 | 51.21%
01:00 | 51.27%

He slowed down a bit, but that's still his second best hour of the day. Can he crack 54% next update?
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/19/2005 3:04:47 PM | Message Detail
"...Magus at 27% makes Crono look really, REALLY bad..."

Sorry, 27% on 2k4 Link. That'd be more like 29% on BL.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
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