Forget that. Vincent performed well; he deserves whatever ranking he gets. Plus, adjusting an entire division because of a brand new character (at least I think that's the reason...) seems very silly.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

...so? Why is it that every year, people look at the stats and try to adjust for every stupid little thing under the sun? I can get SFF, but adjusting because something "doesn't look right" is stupid. I can understand adjusting for Snake when he falls below Ryu a year after beating Ryu's ass, but it's gotten to such a ridiculous level that I'm almost willing to not look at the final product.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2

Plus, adjusting an entire division because of a brand new character (at least I think that's the reason...) seems very silly.

Magus, Frog.

Not that I think the Devil Division necessarily needs alot of adjusting, mind you.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

If Cloud beats Link and Sephiroth massacres Mario, that division *needs* to be adjusted, or at least have an asterisk on it. If the predictable happens and Link beats Cloud while Sephy has an underwhelming win, leave it alone.
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*is Karma Hunter*

From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:17:14 PM | Message Detail | #301
Forget that. Vincent performed well; he deserves whatever ranking he gets. Plus, adjusting an entire division because of a brand new character (at least I think that's the reason...) seems very silly.

Amen, Blazer.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2

...How exactly would we go about adjusting the Devil Division anyway? Anything we do doesn't seem like it'd work to me.


Constant Squall makes the division look best...Magus is ahead of Tidus through Spring Bowser by the same ratio as in 2k3, Dante got a decent boost from DMC3, Knux, and Knux got a reasonable boost too. Vincent's right around Aeris that way too...I suppose you could even do Vince = Aeris if you wanted, although that's a bit more arbitrary.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

the xstats are like fruits. they start out wholesome but then people with white coats nad glasses improve them as they see fit.result?they become like good looking but not tasty
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Which I was just getting to--as a sort of middle ground, would it be preferable to simply asterisk matches or divisions where we think there may have been some sort of abnormal result? That could conceivably work out better.
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*is Karma Hunter*

From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 4:19:02 PM | Message Detail | #304
If Cloud beats Link and Sephiroth massacres Mario, that division *needs* to be adjusted

The Devil Division needs to be adjusted is that happens? Yeah, that makes sense.

Where is FourthDeus when you need him?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2

Constant Squall makes the division look best

But do we even know what constant Squall is? He's been behind SFF for the previous two years.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

....so the entire division is going to be adjusted because a new character performed well? Are you people serious?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2

The Devil Division needs to be adjusted is that happens? Yeah, that makes sense.

Where is FourthDeus when you need him?

It would really be the only logical thing to do, if you think about it. Cloud beating Link after what we've seen Nintendo do to this contest would seal the deal that AC had to at least have *some* impact on the matches.
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*is Karma Hunter*

....so the entire division is going to be adjusted because a new character performed well?

Magus, Frog.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Nothing should be adjusted regardless of the results within the next couple days. That's just stupid.

---
“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

the only reason the devil division is talking about being adjusted is because Vincent had AC for Crono and didn't for the rest of the bracket. in that sense, the entire division may be overrated by a couple of points.

as for how you adjust it? you don't.
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.

Where is FourthDeus when you need him?

maybe he fled for his life after sonic lost on friday T_T
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*sigh* sonic's never going to be in the final 4 -_-

Trans, The amount that Vince gained to AC is still an unknown factor.

and 4000 lead for Mario now.


KB

That's true. I was thinking Magus through Luca Blight, but looking at Diablo it's better just to take note that the characters other than Vincent are likely weaker than the stats suggest, and predict accordingly in the future. Not that I think the stats are going to serve us that well in what is sure to be a chaotic 2k6.
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*is Karma Hunter*

Ugh. I severely doubt that AC helped Vincent. Master Chief greatly overperformed against Crono after performing poorly on Donkey Kong. You'd honestly take Master Chief over Vincent/Squall?

The Devil Division doesn't need to be adjusted. Link will confirm that.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

So not only do we need to erase a factor for the purposes of the stats, we have to assume that said factor even exists in the first place. And that the stats are meant to take all of these things into account in the first place.

Brilliant.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2

exactly, Kyle, which means that we don't know what happened. that's why we would adjust it off some constant character in his division.

problem is, Squall has never had a clear number, Knuckles looks to have increased and Dante had a new game out. there's basically no way to gauge Vincent pre-AC, so you just put an asterisk next to the division and remember what happened.
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.

Heh. Crono beat Mario by 6,265 votes last year. I was thinking that was closer to 4000--ah, that was Cloud/Link.

---
“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

Magus, Frog.

...so? Let statheads get next year's matches wrong.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2

Master Chief simply isn't transitive, and I think we can see that right now without a doubt. Now, what's debateable is how transitive the rest of the stats are. For all we know, they may be demonstratably intransitive for the first time ever. We just don't know.
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*is Karma Hunter*

Why is it that every year, people look at the stats and try to adjust for every stupid little thing under the sun? I can get SFF, but adjusting because something "doesn't look right" is stupid. I can understand adjusting for Snake when he falls below Ryu a year after beating Ryu's ass, but it's gotten to such a ridiculous level that I'm almost willing to not look at the final product.

I was under the impression that you thought the Extraploated Standings were worthless and you wouldn't be looking at them adjustments or not.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

The Devil Division doesn't need to be adjusted. Link will confirm that.

The Devil Division certainly doesn't need to be adjusted, but all Link will be confirming tomorrow is that he's weaker than Cloud.

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Terrific!!! I get another hurricane headed my way. Just when I'm about to leave Miami to go back to school to hit up the career fairs and get my job situation straightened out. Now the gas stations are PACKED and my tank is on E...

Prepare to see a Silver Mitsubishi Galant outracing the hurricane on the news later on tonight.... <_<
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

YOu cant put an * next to the devil division.


The preformances were legit.

KB

how about leave the stats unadjusted (or just adjust the stats for samus to rank #5)(#5 as in behind link cloud seph and mario) and let the people who want to solely go off the stats to predict next years contest do so. Let them get some logical matches wrong. -_-
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*sigh* sonic's never going to be in the final 4 -_-

Mario been above 57% for the last three 15 min updates, and the one before that he had 56.77%. Pure pwnage.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I'm all for taking the stats as is and simply making my own personal adjustments--but the thing is, some people WANT to make adjustments for the public good. If they want to do that, why bother them? If it's so bad, more brackets out fo the running for next time.
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*is Karma Hunter*

It must be awesome living in Florida, huh?

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"The PS2 had 12,000,000 pre orders. To give you an idea of how many people that is that's over half of the world population." - DifferentialEquation

From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 2:33:04 PM | Message Detail
I'm all for taking the stats as is and simply making my own personal adjustments--but the thing is, some people WANT to make adjustments for the public good. If they want to do that, why bother them? If it's so bad, more brackets out fo the running for next time.

*thumbs up*
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*sigh* sonic's never going to be in the final 4 -_-

YOu cant put an * next to the devil division.


The preformances were legit.

I'll see come Link/Cloud.
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*is Karma Hunter*

....so the entire division is going to be adjusted because a new character performed well? Are you people serious?

We'd actually be adjusting everyone except Vincent, since he went up after beating Squall.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Cloud/Link =/= Crono/Vince.


KB

I'm really not opposed to just saying there is little more than a trace of transitivity from 2k4 to 2k5, and I'm not talking about 2k4 being SFF-loaded. We can tell from both this contest and the Villain Contest that there's a new wave of visitors among us, and I've occasionally mentioned since December it might be because of the universal accounts merging. I still don't put alot of stock into that, but seeing some (not all) of the characters that rose and drop this year, I could buy characters like MC, DK, and Fisher rising enough to do what happened to Crono (though I don't know how to explain CATS), among others. Perhaps we get more visitors that are shared with GameSpot and -- dare I say -- even MP3.com than we imagine?
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Cloud/Link =/= Crono/Vince.

Hey, you mess yourself up if you want to. Better for me next time.
---
*is Karma Hunter*

One would think that today's match throws away any notion of adjusting the Devil division. Even with Mario's huge increase, does anyone honestly believe that he would be able to completely reverse the outcome of the same match last year without a Crono drop?

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

Well, even when I tried to make my adjustments public last year, you all ignored them and did stupid stuff like picking CJ over Ness. :p
---
"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

One would think that today's match throws away any notion of adjusting the Devil division. Even with Mario's huge increase, does anyone honestly believe that he would be able to completely reverse the outcome of the same match last year without a Crono drop?

Crono didn't drop THAT much.
---
*is Karma Hunter*

Which is why you keep 'em to yourself like I'm gonna this year. =P
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Hey, you mess yourself up if you want to. Better for me next time.

You're still making a correlation between something that may not necessarily be there. We haven't seen Cloud nor Link perform so there would be no way of saying definitely the effect of Advent Children.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Hey, you mess yourself up if you want to. Better for me next time.

Well, I did well this year, I plan to do the same next.


KB

Crono's plummeting percentage has put Kirby over Squall.

1 Mario 50.00
2 Crono 46.32
3 Mega Man 45.07
4 Sonic the Hedgehog 44.74
5 Solid Snake 42.79
6 Bowser 42.29
7 Vincent Valentine 40.85
8 Kirby 40.49
9 Squall Leonhart 40.37
10 Samus 40.21
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

okay, I have a simple question that I probably know the answer to, but I'm going to throw it out there anyways.

most people seem to agree that we need to start anew with the stats. if that's so, why would we bother using 2k3 Link as our base? why not, say, 2k5 Mario?
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.

One would think that today's match throws away any notion of adjusting the Devil division. Even with Mario's huge increase, does anyone honestly believe that he would be able to completely reverse the outcome of the same match last year without a Crono drop?

Uh, what? This match is a pretty big underperformance for Mario.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Mario went from -6,000 to +4,000 on Crono.

Crono must've fallen. There's no way Mario got THAT much stronger.
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DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.

Crono didn't drop THAT much.

He certainly dropped enough to allow Master Chief to get 40% on him and Mario to reverse a 45% loss the previous year to a 53-55% win.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.