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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 259
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:23:15 PM | Message Detail
And here comes the afterschool vote!
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:23:52 PM | Message Detail
I'm thinking Vincent...and a few first rounders, naturally. Still, compared to everything else on there, nothing really significant will come out of this year. Hell, in the SFF-borefest that was 2k4 we still got two of the closest matches ever, in rapid succession!

Not that I'd want to go back to 2k4 EVER, but just saying.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:24:32 PM | Message Detail
Here we go. Push, Mario!
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:25:34 PM | Message Detail
Crono won that update. What in the hell...
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:25:47 PM | Message Detail
Huh? Was that just an anomaly? Or something more foreboding...?
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:26:37 PM | Message Detail
Crono is taking he afterschool vote.

>.>


KB
From: voltch | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:27:10 PM | Message Detail
go crono turn this match into a board frenzy by losaing by 6 votes
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:28:00 PM | Message Detail
Ya freaks... if you count the last 15 minutes Crono has still dropped around 150 votes and 0.04%... Crono ain't taking jack.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:28:49 PM | Message Detail
Of course he isn't coming back, but I'd like to see Mario break 54%.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: XxBilly2xX | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:28:58 PM | Message Detail
Quick question: Who would you pick in a Sonic/MM rematch next year?
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This is not a sig, just felt like writing something down here.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:30:01 PM | Message Detail
I'd take Sonic, out of the fact that MM seems more liable to drop than he does.

Okay, false start. Let's try this again, Mario...
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:30:18 PM | Message Detail
Billy.. I would MM.

The X collection due out soon will help negate any Sonic hype for new games.


KB
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:31:29 PM | Message Detail
Sonic, especially if his new game is out in time. Even if it isn't, he'll still get Sonic Rush.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:31:56 PM | Message Detail
Keep in mind that I don't think Mega Man will ever get a boost from any game, EVER AGAIN. I think Sonic will, whenever he comes out with a new one (Shadow the Hedgehog could very well push him over the hump).
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:36:25 PM | Message Detail
Mario is looking possessed again. I wonder what the heck happened to him a few updates ago?
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:37:34 PM | Message Detail
ehh.


KB
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:37:42 PM | Message Detail
I'd take Sonic thanks to Shadow the Hedgehog, Sonic Rush and possibly Sonic next Gen. No Mega Man game is ever going to boost him.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:40:00 PM | Message Detail
Ya, I think Mega Man would have more trouble "boosting" than any other Noble Nine member. He's as saturated as Mario without the Nintendo backing and the "icon of the industry" status.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:41:37 PM | Message Detail
Holy Zen! Mario's just beating the hell out of Crono now. 2x 59%ish updates in a row.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:51:33 PM | Message Detail
Notes on adjustments:
1. Ness obviously needs something...I'm thinking Auron through Tails. It's not optimal, but it'll work.

2. Samus. Oy. Least squares won't work, because the returning guys are Ganondorf (SFF'd?), Frog (YOU MAKE NO SENSE!), and Auron (No good read, behind Gdorf), so we're going to have to think of something clever for her.

3. Ganondorf, depending on what we do to Samus. He should be at least around his Sp2k5 number.

4. Sora. Like Tidus last year, I'm inclined to leave him alone. I agree that this puts Alucard in particular way too low, but I don't feel comfortable changing it. To see just how low Alucard is (% on Mario):
33 Gordon Freeman 26.69
34 Kefka 26.61
35 Alucard 26.54
36 Sam Fisher 25.08
Yeah. If you wanna take Freeman over Alucard, be my guest.

5. Dream. Bowser could have overperformed with Snake's pic, but I'm not adjusting anything because of it. That's going to have to be a judgement call, like Snake/Frog was.

6. Devil. I'm not inclined to do anything with Vincent until I see what Cloud and Sephiroth do in the ToC.

I think that wraps it up...Lemme know if I missed anything.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:52:07 PM | Message Detail
Heh, I like seeing Vincent be involved with three of the five toughest-to-predict matches this year (which includes #1).

How do you think we're all gonna look back on this year? The year Nintendo dominated, the year the Noble Nine stood proud as its title was defended, the year Vincent entered as a darkhorse and left as very respectable, the year Mario/Crono happened against odds...or maybe I'm missing something.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:52:47 PM | Message Detail
Mariownage today.

And yay, I got a pic used again!

I see we're talking about adjustments now. This should get mighty interesting.
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Mario vs. Crono - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Mario (124/160)
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:53:07 PM | Message Detail
Mario... *looks at numbers* ...this isn't fast enough, we're behind schedule. If we're going to make, oh, say, *looks at numbers again* 60%, and thus push Snake and Kirby over everyone in the field by leaps and bounds, we're going to have to ratchet up our quota. Double time!
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:53:27 PM | Message Detail
Dude, adjust Bowser. He's WAY overrated.
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"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 152/160, Predicted Winner: Crono
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:54:45 PM | Message Detail
Oh, whoops, forgot Yoshi's 4 pack.

Yoshi -- going through Laharl seems reasonable, and Luigi still kicks his ass. I like that.
Pac-Man/Ocelot -- We can either do Spring Ocelot or assume that Yoshi reduced Pac-Man to the same level as Luigi did. Both are meh assumptions, but we've gotta work with something.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:54:51 PM | Message Detail
You know: I would love it so much if Mario won the ToC bracket. It's not going to happen, but I can dream.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:56:15 PM | Message Detail
I said Nintendo last week and am sticking with it. Mario went from 47% or so to 54% on Crono. says it all.

Noble Nine is #2, for sure.
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From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:57:05 PM | Message Detail
Actually, I'm trying to think of a way Ganondorf would beat Bowser, even in the adjusted statistics. I think it puts Samus *way* too much over Mario to do that...so, interpret that as you will.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:57:12 PM | Message Detail
I forgot one other big option: the year we had a bracket own the hell out of us.

That one's kind of a biggy, heh.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:58:05 PM | Message Detail
Samus is probably going to end up stronger than Mario in the adjusted stats, huh?
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:58:40 PM | Message Detail
I say leave Bowser alone, leave Sora alone and wait and see with Vincent.
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From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:58:52 PM | Message Detail
LOL, I owned myself, I would have had a prize if I hadn't had 1.) Tidus taking the Dream Division and 2.) Crono beating Mario even after he overcame Samus. I wasn't thinking straight there.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:00:27 PM | Message Detail
Nah, Mario still > Samus until otherwise proven. Samus never faltered, but we never got a good read on her before Mario. What with how everyone's strength bounced around this year, I can't assume that she's significantly over Mario right now--though it could always be a possibility.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:00:53 PM | Message Detail
this match is like watching the yankees win a world series.

KB
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:01:35 PM | Message Detail
Today reminds me of something: I've yet to get a Mario/Crono match right in a contest. I didn't have a bracket entered in 2k2 (though I lurked), I had Crono in 2k3, Mario in 2k4, and Samus today.

I can't catch a break on that ****.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:01:36 PM | Message Detail
LOL, I owned myself, I would have had a prize if I hadn't had 1.) Tidus taking the Dream Division and 2.) Crono beating Mario even after he overcame Samus. I wasn't thinking straight there.


Well, assuming Link beats Cloud and Sephy beats Mario, but I'm not too worried about those choices even now. I'd like for one of them to prove me wrong, though.
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: Yesmar | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:02:02 PM | Message Detail
Aaaaaand here comes all of the people who need to adjust the stats to their liking in order to "make them look right". The only think you need to do is adjust Yoshi based on 2004 Laharl, Samus based on Spring 2005 Ganondorf, possibly Pac Man, and Ness based on... whatever would give him his highest value possible :)

A lot of times "making them look right" A.K.A. "using common sense" works out.

Common sense told us that Samus, Mega, and Sonic weren't that far ahead of Mario in 2002.

Common sense told us that Frog/Liquid Snake/Master Chief were ranked too high in 2004.

Common sense told us that Mario would beat Samus this year.

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"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:02:51 PM | Message Detail
Speaking of owning, here's Mario by the hour:

13:00 | 55.68%
12:00 | 53.78%
11:00 | 51.44%
10:00 | 52.73%
09:00 | 54.00%
08:00 | 52.93%
07:00 | 53.63%
06:00 | 53.84%
05:00 | 53.87%
04:00 | 54.85%
03:00 | 51.62%
02:00 | 51.21%
01:00 | 51.27%

That's a hell of a hour, there. In that last half hour he was even more impressive, taking 56.95% of the vote.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: transience | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:03:22 PM | Message Detail
I've taken Crono over Mario every year (except 2k2, where I had Cloud over Crono). this year, of course, I took Samus over Crono, which doesn't count.
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From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:05:01 PM | Message Detail
In 2k2, I had Cloud over Snake. Eh...
In 2k3, I had Mario over...Kefka...
In 2k4, I had Mario over Crono.
In 2k5, I had Crono over Mario.

...so, I've predicted the winner right at least once. >_<
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: Phediuk | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:06:59 PM | Message Detail
Say hello to the Summer 2005 "Optimum" Bracket, based entirely off the in-advance X-stats. Since Crono's going to finish with more than 55%, this bracket is a little off, but it's just the theoretical "optimum" bracket anyway so it doesn't matter. 1st vs. 64th, 2nd vs. 63rd, etc...you know the drill.

Mushroom Division:

1- Mario
8- Yuri

4- Alucard
5- Tommy Vercetti

3- Luigi
6- Cecil

2- Magus
7- Geno

Zebes Division:

1- Samus
8- Vyse

4- Rikku
5- Kratos Aurion

3- Leon Kennedy
6- Kratos (GoW)

2- Vincent
7- Kerrigan

Chaos Division:

1- Sonic
8- Revolver Ocelot

4- Yoshi
5- Yuna

3- Tidus
6- Conker

2- Zero
7- King of all Cosmos

Gear Division:

1- Solid Snake
8- Pac-Man

4- Auron
5- Sam Fisher

3- Donkey Kong
6- Terra

2- Tifa
7- Wesker

20XX Division:

1- Mega Man
8- Laharl

4- Ryu Hayabusa
5- Kefka

3- Ryu (SF)
6- Zidane

2- Dante
7- Joanna Dark

Koopa Division:

1- Bowser
8- Carl Johnson

4- Chun-Li
5- Frog

3- Vivi
6- CATS

2- Zelda
7- Agent 47

Dream Division:

1- Kirby
8- Big Boss

4- Sora
5- KOS-MOS

3- Ganondorf
6- Riku

2- Squall
7- Ness

Guardia Division:

1- Crono
8- Manny Calavera

4- Diablo
5- Gordon Freeman

3- Master Chief
6- Jin Kazama

2- Knuckles
7- Lloyd Irving
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:07:15 PM | Message Detail
...How exactly would we go about adjusting the Devil Division anyway? Anything we do doesn't seem like it'd work to me.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Dark115 | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:07:32 PM | Message Detail
In 2k2 I wasn't here
In 2k3 I predicted Mario to beat Crono
In 2k4 I predicted Crono to beat Mario
In 2k5 I predicted Mario to beat Crono

So far I've been right everytime except 2k2 which is N/A so who knows what I would have picked
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http://users.ign.com/collection/Dark115.
Most Wanted: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (GameCube), Soul Calibur III (PS2)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:09:18 PM | Message Detail
Heh heh, everyone talked about how undeserving Kirby was of a 1 seed, and he might end up getting one based on the unadjusted stats.

Hilarious.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Quaarma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:11:26 PM | Message Detail
4- Diablo
5- Gordon Freeman


Why am I hesitating to put Diablo over Freeman?!?
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*is Karma Hunter*
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:13:05 PM | Message Detail
yep.

KB
From: voltch | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:13:37 PM | Message Detail
so far i've always picked the correct winner and i always get snake's path correct. this contest kept everything up
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:14:43 PM | Message Detail
How about not adjusting the Devil Division? I don't see what the big deal about it is.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:15:16 PM | Message Detail
Why am I hesitating to put Diablo over Freeman?!?

I'd pick Diablo over Freeman in a heartbeat.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 1:15:43 PM | Message Detail
"But Vincent's way too high!"
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
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