man i was hoping that the top went with link and thus would get decimated for two matches. cause i banked on cloud
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Leon saying AC did do something = it actually did do something.

I think it's the first time I see him reject something that makes Squall look so good like that.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Hey, I love Squall, but I'm being realistic here. It seems a little...off for Snake to return to 2003 levels and still have Knuckles gain 4-5% on him in a direct match.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

You guys are reading too much into the AC boost.
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.

Maybe so, but to deny the possibility is foolish.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Does anyone have RPGuy's least square projections for the Devil division? I think we may need them soon.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I'm not denying the possibility, but I don't think AC was the main reason Vincent did better than expected. Anyone see Crono-MC? Vince wasn't going to cut it around MC's level,
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.

But if Crono was as bad as Master Chief seemingly made him look, Mega Man probably should've beaten him, and Mario would be slaughtering him. I think LSE before Crono/Mega had Crono around 35% on BL.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Well then are we denying a Sonic/Knuckles boost as well?

a 4-5% gain for knuckles on Snake may be too much. but saying the numbers are still 60-40 puts Magus pretty far down, and even I think he wasnt that overrated.


KB

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:32:54 PM | Message Detail
Maybe so, but to deny the possibility is foolish.

-5 style points to Leonhart. That was clearly a chin stroking moment.

---
~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:34:15 PM | #107
I'm not denying the possibility, but I don't think AC was the main reason Vincent did better than expected. Anyone see Crono-MC? Vince wasn't going to cut it around MC's level,

I have always strongly believed he would without influence from AC. He underperformed on Dante and then barely squeaked by Squall who himself underperformed on Knuckles.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

link/cloud is gonna be so hot tomorrow though. it can really go either way this time. i say link takes the lead but cloud then hits hard
---
Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:35:30 PM | #109
Well then are we denying a Sonic/Knuckles boost as well?

a 4-5% gain for knuckles on Snake may be too much. but saying the numbers are still 60-40 puts Magus pretty far down, and even I think he wasnt that overrated.


KB

Answer: we aren't. I remember the LSE giving both Knuckles and Squall a hefty boost while dragging Vincent to the pits of hell.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Make that Knuckles and Dante got a hefty boost. Squall stayed almost the same.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Crono didn't necessarily look bad against either MC or Vincent. He just performed below expectations.

In my opinion, he should've done a little better against Mega.

Mario isn't beating the snot out of Crono because school isn't over. I'm still surprised Mario took the night vote from Crono.
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.

Squall who himself underperformed on Knuckles.

How about a Knuckles boost.


KB

He won't be beating the snot out of him later either.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

so did knuckles boost this year?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

the whole devil division was much stronger than most seem to give it credit for.

The truth isnt just a AC gain for Vince, but a an overall small boost for most of the characters.


KB

He won't be beating the snot out of him later either.

Mario is probably going to get the after-school vote. When I say "beat the snot", I don't mean "Mario vs. Samus". I mean, 6000 vote lead by the end, give or take considering 2nd Night.
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.

I have always strongly believed he would without influence from AC. He underperformed on Dante and then barely squeaked by Squall who himself underperformed on Knuckles.

Or Dante recieved a boost from DMC3, and MM who was already ahead of Sonic seemingly underperformed on him with his place in the previous stats, and the supposed Nintendo boost. Which could just as well be Sonic overperforming on MM, and Knuckles recieving the same similar boost, for obvious reasons.

---
~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

I'm of the opinion that Squall is very close to his 2k3 level and the devil division should be based off of him.
---
.

I wonder how strong Vincent is going to get after DoC, AC spreading, and with more bracket voting support....
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.

Squall does seem to be the most stable of the characters, but I still believe in small boost for him.

KB

so what was the strongest division?
dream?
devil?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Assuming that there is an "Advent Children" boost, how much is that boost supposed to be? A percentage point or two on Base Link? Three?

---
Second rule of war! He who holds the land can conquer Heaven! - Magatsu Taito

Devil, Dream, and chaos divisions.


KB

Probably Devil. Nobody in there is ELITE, but they have a lot of the well balanced.

Vincent almost equals Squall
Dante is close to Vincent
Knuckles is pretty strong
Magus was overrated, but he's good too.
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.

if cloud wins this year will we use percentage on base cloud?
---
Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

If we're talking about pure average power, probably Zebes. If we're talking about the division with the most reasonably strong guys, probably Devil, with Dream as a close contender. I'm not entirely certain which division was more impressive.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

This match looks like its going down a 55-45 path so just assuming it does and we base it off of Crono holding constant (which is the most reasonable stance in my opinion) these are the standings.

Character Expected % against Base Link '03

1.Mario 44.3
2.Crono 39.87
3.Mega Man 38.79
4.Sonic 38.51
5.Snake 37.91
6.Bowser 37.46
7.Kirby 35.87
8.Samus 35.63
9.Vincent 35.58
10.Squall 35.16
11.Zelda 34.56
12.Tifa 33.58
13.Zero 32.9
14.Dante 32.73
15.Knuckles 32.48
16.Magus 31.92
17.Luigi 31.32
18.Master C. 30.86
19.Ryu 30.73
20.Tidus 30.38
21.Donkey K 30.37
22.Vivi 27.95
23.Ganondorf 27.75
24.Leon K 27.49
25.Rikku 27.21
26.Sora 26.34
27.Chun-Li 25.54
28.Auron 25.47
29.Yoshi 24.76
30.Ryu H. 24.35
31.Diablo 24.22
32.Alucard 23.51
33.Tommy V 23.24
34.Gordon F 22.78
35.Kefka 22.71
36.Yuna 21.53
37.Sam F. 21.4
38.Frog 21.34
39.KOS-MOS 21.3
40.Kratos A. 20.95
41.Kratos 20.91
42.Riku 20.63
43.CATS 19.24
44.Terra 18.66
45.Conker 18.6
46.Zidane 18.56
47.Jin 18.37
48.Cecil 17.78
49.Geno 17.69
50.Lloyd 17.60
51.Joanna 16.93
52.KoaC 16.68
53.Wesker 15.95
54.Agent 47 15.42
55.Ness 15.23
56.Kerrigan 14.94
57.Vyse 14.73
58.Big Boss 14.53
59.CJ 13.66
60.Pac-Man 13.45
61.Ocelot 13.11
62.Laharl 13.04
63.Manny 12.06
64.Yuri 9.03



After doing this all I have to say is lol xstats.

---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

Squall is hardly the most stable, we don't have one good reading on him. Cloud SFF's the living hell out of him last year, then in 2K3 he gets beat by Samus, who later faces up with Link. SFF is always questioned by some, and not others, but after seeing what Mario did to him, I think it's evident that there was at least some SFF.

---
~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

When I say underperformed, that's based on previous years. It's quite possible Dante and Knuckles both boosted, which makes sense, because of DMC3 and the Mario/Crono/Megaman/Sonic chain. What I am advocating is a middle-ground solution, with constant Squall, boosted Dante and Knuckles and AC-affected Vincent (though much less than through constant Dante and Knuckles).
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Kirby > Samus and Vincent?

Wtf.
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.

That would be rather awesome. If only Kirby really could beat Samus...

---
Second rule of war! He who holds the land can conquer Heaven! - Magatsu Taito

Oh, and stable Crono is NOT the most likely scenario. Snake 2003 = Snake 2005 gives a much better reading and doesn't boost 80% of the field for nothing like a constant Crono would.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

This match looks like its going down a 55-45 path

Let's wait until Mario actually gets somewhere close to that before we jump to that conclusion. He's barely moved at all in the last two hours.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

1.Mario 44.3
2.Crono 39.87
3.Mega Man 38.79
4.Sonic 38.51
5.Snake 37.91
6.Bowser 37.46
7.Kirby 35.87
8.Samus 35.63
9.Vincent 35.58
10.Squall 35.16


I have a problem is Samus being so low, and Kibry above Squall let alone Vince.

Even with boost this year... that is a lot of ground to bmake up to be better than Squall, its still reasonable, but I am selling it.


KB

If anything, I say we base the Devil Division on Magus through Luca Blight or the like.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:47:35 PM | Message Detail
Kirby > Samus and Vincent?

Samus/Mario SFF. =P

---
~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

heh, Kratos vs. Kratos.
---
.

Oh, and stable Crono is NOT the most likely scenario. Snake 2003 = Snake 2005 gives a much better reading and doesn't boost 80% of the field for nothing like a constant Crono would.

Agreed.

---
~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

and I agree, Snake 2k3 looks to be the best option.
---
.

And I knew Vincent would be better than Tifa.
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.

A few notes about the stats I compiled.

1. Donkey Kong is overrated by a lot.
2. Sam Fisher beats Frog.
3. Kratos and Kratos A. are almost equal O_O
4. Bowser looks to of overperformed by about 2 percentages based on his Spring stats. That brings Kirby and the gang down a bit.
5. I think Vincent rSFF Crono more than AC helped him. Sorry, you cant convince me that people outside the hardcore fans would wait hours to illegally download the movie.
6. Yoshi, Samus, and Ness should all be seriously considered for adjustments.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

Well at least this year we had almost no fodder.

>________________________>

---
~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:51:16 PM | #144
And I knew Vincent would be better than Tifa.

In all fairness though, AC came out and leaked AFTER Tifa's loss...
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Now, I know last time we adjusted stats, Knux beat the **** out of Magus...

But I don't think we have to worry about Kirby doing that to Samus or Vincent.
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.

The stats prove NOTHING for Tifa/Vincent comparisons, which is a damn shame. It's obvious that AC had some effect on Vince.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

In all fairness though, AC came out and leaked AFTER Tifa's loss...

As we all know, SAY IT EVERYBODY
"It's really hard to SFF FFVII characters!"

Vincent's rSFF probably did more to help him than AC.
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.