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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 259
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:07:57 AM | Message Detail
Mario/Crono IV. Hopefully Crono can come back a little and make this interesting again.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
From: RPGGamer0 | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:08:40 AM | Message Detail
Hopefully Mario wins with 58.33% of the vote, and win over Sephiroth by a convincing margin. >_>


~RPGGamer~
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:08:59 AM | Message Detail
CRONO FOR THE WIN!

---
“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:09:22 AM | Message Detail
http://mariovscrono.ytmnd.com/

Lawl m i rite?
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Summer 2005 Contest -- Current Score: 105/144
Today's Prediction -- Crono vs. Mega Man
From: Qwaar | Posted: 9/19/2005 12:10:09 AM | Message Detail
I want Mario to win, but Crono is in my bracket.

I currently have 153 points, which I think is pretty good considering some of the matches in this contest and the fragging devil division.
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"Nash would tear a hamstring just picking up the phone" - Y2J
From: Phediuk | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:36:07 AM | Message Detail
This match is depressing.

I would've surely been on the Top 50 if Crono won...
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 9/19/2005 6:48:46 AM | Message Detail
a championship match of mario vs cloud or mario vs link would both rock at this point imo.
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current goty:Advance wars duel strike
possible goty contenders: castlevania dos, we love katamari, mario kart ds
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:32:42 AM | Message Detail
That was the end of the topic? Heh.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:32:57 AM | Message Detail
XD this is the second time I got the 500th post without trying.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:34:35 AM | Message Detail
Like I said in the last topic, I doubt AC had much of an effect on Vincent and Tifa, so I don't see how it would affect Sephiroth.


TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Micheal Flatley and Hellboy"-trancer1 SC2k5- 96 points Mario vs Snake
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:35:15 AM | Message Detail
But it did have a very obvious effect on Vincent when he faced Crono.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:35:37 AM | Message Detail
Back over 53%
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:39:15 AM | Message Detail
Like I said in the last topic, I doubt AC had much of an effect on Vincent and Tifa, so I don't see how it would affect Sephiroth.

Then you're obviously not paying attention. Tifa is a moot point--AC came out after her match. Vincent is a HUGE argument toward the movie having an impact, and you better not bring up rSFF with me when Squall is staring you right in the damn face. The main factor there was the movie in all likliehood.

The movie has spurred FF7 to crack the top three FAQs here. And finally, I don't care if only FFVII fans are interested in the movie.

Why?

Because most people on GameFAQs are already FFVII fans. Which is why it won the ****ing Game Contest.

Most are fans of FFVII, it's just that many of them prefer Link to Cloud. AC has the potential to sway that preference, which is probably what happened in Crono/Vincent.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: perdevious | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:48:04 AM | Message Detail
Everybody that's played FFVII though, and quite a few that haven't, know(s?) who Sephiroth is. Not everybody knows about Vincent. I haven't seen AC, but I imagine that Vincent gets a decent amount of screen time. People that haven't ever really heard of him will get to know him if they watch the movie. There won't be as many people who come in contact with Sephiroth for the first time, thanks to the movie. So, the effect that AC has on FFVII characters should be much stronger in Vincent's favor than it should be in Sephiroth's.
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How to describe Meteos in one word? Ingenuity.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:49:38 AM | Message Detail
Enough people know who Vincent is to make that less of a factor--his decimation of Kerrigan proves that. Much of it *had* to be a sway in preference.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:50:55 AM | Message Detail
Or rather, just a greater influx of FFVII fans visiting the site for the FFVII FAQs. Either way, the outcome is the same: FFVII boosting, and Link may need the Nintendo boost at his back come his match.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:56:20 AM | Message Detail
Speaking of Kerrigan, she may well end up ranking 65th, ahead of only Manny and Yuri. Talk about humiliation... especially when you know Gordon could rank 35th or such.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:58:21 AM | Message Detail
All right, everyone, imagine you had seen this matchup when the bracket was released:

4-Sarah Kerrigan
5-Gordon Freeman

...ouch.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/19/2005 7:58:53 AM | Message Detail
We wouldn't be here to talk about it.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:01:10 AM | Message Detail
I think most of the board would've taken Kerrigan. I'm not sure who I would've go to.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:01:25 AM | Message Detail
Most are fans of FFVII, it's just that many of them prefer Link to Cloud. AC has the potential to sway that preference, which is probably what happened in Crono/Vincent.

Yeah, but Cloud's not nearly as likable in AC as he is in FFVII. I can see it boosting Vincent, especially since many people probably haven't played with Vincent as a party member. But when you're as popular as Cloud, it takes more than a movie to give you a boost.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:01:47 AM | Message Detail
Speaking of Kerrigan, she may well end up ranking 65th, ahead of only Manny and Yuri.

Heh, this is who the board's been pushing for YEARS to get in, and this is who had the single-most board nominations.

Jay Solano, Version 0.9.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:03:48 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, but Cloud's not nearly as likable in AC as he is in FFVII.

OPINION

I can see it boosting Vincent, especially since many people probably haven't played with Vincent as a party member. But when you're as popular as Cloud, it takes more than a movie to give you a boost.

I could have said the same thing about Kingdom Hearts, and look where that got us.

And besides, it may very well be a moot point. The movie may have encouraged many old fans to replay FFVII, and thus come to the site for the FAQs. With an influx of completely new FFVII voters that prefer Cloud already, that's already enough to account for an AC boost.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:05:27 AM | Message Detail
Who would you pick in a Jay Solano vs. Tanner match.

I would have to pick the first option (or whoever had the higher seed)
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:06:35 AM | Message Detail
Believe it or not, there are Tanner fans (check the Driver 4 board if you don't believe me, and many are pissed that he's not in the next installment). I can't see how many fans of a generic N-Gage game there are...
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:07:14 AM | Message Detail
Tanner. Afterall, there were over twice as many Tanner voters as there were people willing to admit they own an N-Gage.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1733
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1786
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:08:01 AM | Message Detail
Ok, but at least 1/10th of the voters won't know who either character are.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: BigtoeOfJebus | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:08:08 AM | Message Detail
Do not EVER put Jay Solano over ANYONE. There's no chance in hell that Jay could beat Tanner. Which is why it would be so goddamn hilarious if we got Jay into a contest.
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Nominate Jay Solano and Ifnkovhgroghprm for SC2k6!
*Commits harakiri*
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:08:22 AM | Message Detail
I could have said the same thing about Kingdom Hearts, and look where that got us.


Uh...no you can't. KH created a boost because it appealed to non-FF fans. You certainly can't say the same thing about AC.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:09:42 AM | Message Detail
Uh...no you can't. KH created a boost because it appealed to non-FF fans.

Prove it.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:12:05 AM | Message Detail
KH = Disney Game

FF attracts FF fans so when KH came out more than just FF fans bought it.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:12:53 AM | Message Detail
Ok, but at least 1/10th of the voters won't know who either character are.

That's a bit low. I don't expect more than maybe 30 or 40 people off of this board to know who Jay is. Tanner should be kinda recognizable. I think his game sold a few hundred thousand, maybe even over a million. I'd say maybe 30-50% of the voters will at least reognize him, especially since he's been in the contest once.
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:13:26 AM | Message Detail
Yes, but that doesn't prove that it's the reason for the boost...
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:15:23 AM | Message Detail
I thought it was generally accepted that Kingdom Hearts got non-FF fans interested in Final Fantasy and especially the characters that appeared in Kingdom Hearts.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:15:57 AM | Message Detail
Prince of Persia for SC2K6!!

>_>
<_<

Not the right time?

---
~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:19:55 AM | Message Detail
Hmmmm...
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:20:07 AM | Message Detail
Generally accepted doesn't make it fact, and there's plenty of evidence to suggest otherwise. For one, FFVII was able to slaughter its way through the games contest without so much as a scratch on it. Clearly it isn't so much FFVII's weakness, but that of their characters. Many may think that it was the introduction of the FF characters into a new audience that increased their popularity, but I don't buy it--not here, not on GameFAQs. I'd be willing to wager that the game was able to sway preference for people that had already loved and played Final Fantasy VII, and therefore THAT was the primary reason for the boost. If there were ever a better example of this, I don't think I could find any other than Squall.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:24:21 AM | Message Detail
This match looks like it might not even break 100,000 here. I guess people are just plain sick of this matchup.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:26:05 AM | Message Detail
I never thought that Snake/Zelda would hold the main bracket record all the way through...

Here's to hoping Link/Cloud puts everything we've seen here to shame.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:27:13 AM | Message Detail
Oh, it will. There's no way that match doesn't break 120,000 in my opinion.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:28:13 AM | Message Detail
It's generally accepted that Link got a boost in 2k4 because of TP or ZCE...but it could've been because of a rise in people pirating Link's Awakening for the Game Boy/Color. KH was quite the beast in games contest, and a large portion of that strength comes from non-FF fans. I believe that KH is on track to outsell FFVII in the next couple years, so you can't tell me that all KH fans are FFVII fans too.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: NewLib | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:28:19 AM | Message Detail
You act like everyone who comes to Gamefaqs has played FFVII which isnt nearly true. Also I know Kingdom Hearts introduced those characters to a new audience, a younger audience. Kids from 9-13 who were way too young to play FFVII, played Kingdom Hearts. For example: My little brother and his friends.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:29:56 AM | Message Detail
Is Squall still in the top ten in the X-stats?


LOL X-stats

KB
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:30:07 AM | Message Detail
*played KH before FF7*

Yep.

---
~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:34:39 AM | Message Detail
It's generally accepted that Link got a boost in 2k4 because of TP or ZCE...but it could've been because of a rise in people pirating Link's Awakening for the Game Boy/Color.

Indeed, though I think it's foolish to compare one obviously farfetched reason with a perfectly rational other, especially since I am arguing the causality, not the correlation.

KH was quite the beast in games contest, and a large portion of that strength comes from non-FF fans.

Unproven, irrelevant, and I don't trust anything measured through Starcraft either, i.e. Halo being that high.

I believe that KH is on track to outsell FFVII in the next couple years, so you can't tell me that all KH fans are FFVII fans too.

I'm not, by a longshot. But you act as though the general populous is GameFAQs, which it most clearly is not.

You act like everyone who comes to Gamefaqs has played FFVII which isnt nearly true.

No, I don't. I don't doubt that KH introduced new people to the FF characters, which accounted for *some* of the boost. But I don't buy it being the PRIMARY reason.

Also I know Kingdom Hearts introduced those characters to a new audience, a younger audience. Kids from 9-13 who were way too young to play FFVII, played Kingdom Hearts. For example: My little brother and his friends.

Anecdotal evidence, but irrelevant even when that is overlooked. I'm not arguing it not having a sway over people outside the FF fanbase...hell, I'm sure Ehrgeiz gained a vote or two for the FF crowd. But I seriously doubt that was the primary reason for it.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:35:12 AM | Message Detail
Hey I made the leaderboard!!!


^_^


KB
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:35:13 AM | Message Detail
If the match were to end at this current percentage, here's what "Noble Nine: would look like:

1. Mario - 50.00%
2. Crono - 46.88%
3. Mega Man - 45.61%
4. Sonic the Hedgehog - 45.27%
5. Solid Snake - 42.79%
6. Bowser Koopa - 42.29%
7. Vincent Valentine - 41.84%
8. Squall Leonhart - 41.34%
9. Kirby - 40.50%
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:35:54 AM | Message Detail
<3<3<3 Sir Crono!

Thats awesome.


KB
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:36:44 AM | Message Detail
So that means Samus will end up 13th in the unadjusted standings? Good God.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Mugen no Jyuunin | Posted: 9/19/2005 8:37:29 AM | Message Detail
Oh, it will. There's no way that match doesn't break 120,000 in my opinion.

It broke 124,000 last year, when vote totals were much lower... I don't think I'd be surprised by 130,000+.

Oh, and I just looked at Alexa.com in the first time in awhile, and today's traffic is interesting - ranked 341 today, with the week's average being 530. And the reach per million users today is 2,000, compared to 1,350 for the last week.

Don't suppose it means that much, if anything at all, but it is interesting to note.


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Second rule of war! He who holds the land can conquer Heaven! - Magatsu Taito
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