See, I thought so last year. I just wasn't sure. He's definitely the underdog this time, and that's the case this year. Crono relishes that role.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Although, if you go by the BOP this year, Crono has 39 to Mario's 16... not that it's of any significance in the later rounds.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

That's too bold for my tastes. It puts Mega Man a little too close to Snake.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Not really, if Mario is as strong as he let us on.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I still say, I'm going to wait until the contest stats come out so I can see who the bracket voters favor.

</Not confident Seer>
<Confident Seer>
MARIO'S GUNNA KICK ASS AND TAKE NAMES. WOO HOO!! M-A-R-I-O!
</Confident Seer>
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.

As Leonhart said, Mario with 55% makes Mega Man too weak. Won't happen.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

I don't care what the hell you say, Crono's opponents > Mario's opponents this year. And that is the only reason people have been underestimating him.

Zidane > Joanna? Okay, I can live with that...but there was potentially SFF there, too...

Tommy V. > Ness? A bit harder to see, what with how he struggled with Kefka and how Ness humiliated CJ...

Master Chief > Zero? Excuse me, I think I got something caught in my throat while laughing.

Vincent > Samus? *cough* *cough* *cough* *cough*

Mega Man > Snake? Okay, we're batting one surefire one out of five...but Crono is kinda winning by just over 51% here.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

Not really, if Mario is as strong as he let us on.

Well, it's possible that Sonic really is as far ahead of Spring Contest Ganondorf (if he's accurate) as Diablo indicates, which puts Sonic very close to 40% on Link. Knuckles appears to have taken a large leap forward this year, so Sonic doing so would be far from surprising.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

you've really got to dig to find a way that Crono wins this match statistically. the best ways that I see are Zero rSFFing MM or Snake being at his 2k4 value. the latter flies in the face of countless amounts of evidence and the former seems nonsensical to me.

I want to see Crono win badly, but I'm also realistic.

---
.

man, working all day on Sunday sucks. i would comment on many more things, but i need a shower. i will say this though:

- it's a bummer that Megaman's comeback failed, but at least he hung in there and gave Crono a tough fight.

- i can't wait to wake up and see Mario pounding the bejesus out of Crono. i see no possible way that Crono can win this one outside of record-levels of cheating.

- heh, i'm still impressed that the tradition of Mario vs. Crono will actually live on.

- what percentage would Mario have to finish with for you to think he has a legitimate shot at Sephiroth? i think that if Mario nails 58%, not only is Snake looking great compared to last year, but Sephiroth better run and hide.

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

I honestly have all sorts of problems with Luigi at 31-32% on BL...
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

58% is insane. Yeah, I want to see Snake outrank everyone but Mario, but it ain't happening. ;_;
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

you've really got to dig to find a way that Crono wins this match statistically.

It's not that difficult, actually. Derive Mario through Bowser and Crono through Diablo, and you have a match that's too close to call.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Heh, just noticed while lookin' through my feedback status that I got a poll-suggestion filed from awhile back:

Do you know who CATS is?
--Yes, and I've played his game too.
--Yes, though I only know him from fads.
--Yes, although I can only recognize his face.
--No, but I hear his name tossed around.
--No, I could care less who he is.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Zidane > Joanna? Okay, I can live with that...but there was potentially SFF there, too...

Doesn't matter, Zidane would still win. It'd prolly be 55-45.

Tommy V. > Ness? A bit harder to see, what with how he struggled with Kefka and how Ness humiliated CJ...

Tommy V > Ness > CJ.

Master Chief > Zero? Excuse me, I think I got something caught in my throat while laughing.

MC no? Vincent beating Zero? Why hell yes.

Vincent > Samus? *cough* *cough* *cough* *cough*

Honestly I think Vincent would at least pull an Aeris here.

Mega Man > Snake? Okay, we're batting one surefire one out of five...but Crono is kinda winning by just over 51% here.

Only assures me that MM would beat Snake if hes givin Crono such a hard time.
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

I know one thing. Crono had better make this a nailbiter so we have a great final, or Mario had best blow Crono out so badly that not even an AC'd Sephy will be sitting comfortably in a few days. Anything else will be kind of a letdown to me.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

And regardless if Mario's opponents might be stronger than Crono's indirectly, there's no denying Mario's road was made much easier due to SFF. Crono had a tougher path here.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

I desperately want the latter to happen, as revenge for last year.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Sir Crono just supplies more reasoning to my logic.
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

I desperately want the latter to happen, as revenge for last year.

Bingo. I'd like a close final and all, but not at the expense of Mario whipping Crono's ass over last year's match.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Doesn't matter, Zidane would still win. It'd prolly be 55-45.

Doesn't matter, because if Zidane was SFF'd then it says nothing about Crono's strength.

Tommy V > Ness > CJ.

Because, of course, you have all the evidence in the world to back that up. Not that it matters, as Ness was SFF'd.

MC no? Vincent beating Zero? Why hell yes.

I'm comparing round to round. And no, I don't think Vincent could take Zero, for the record.

Honestly I think Vincent would at least pull an Aeris here.

I honestly laugh heartily at you if you think that means ANYTHING compared to Samus.

Only assures me that MM would beat Snake if hes givin Crono such a hard time.

MM must be able to beat Snake because he's giving Crono a hard time, therefore that makes Crono strong! Brilliant!

...ugh...you could have at least used last years stats or something.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

Crono was HANDED the finals on a silver platter. Samus was on the other side of the bracket, and one of MM/Sonic was guaranteed to be knocked out before he was even able to meet them. In retrospect we can say it's easier, but virtually no one expected Mario to do what he did to Samus.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

...ugh...you could have at least used last years stats or something.

-_- this is exactly the **** I hate. You guys depend on x-stats for nearly EVERYTHING. You can't accept SOME theories? Thats no fun at all. And just for the record incase you think I have no experiance at this stuff, well uhh, I'm #5 on the leaderboard, and I've been in all the contests >_>
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

but virtually no one expected Mario to do what he did to Samus.

I saw a Mario SFF knockout from day one. True story.
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

-_- this is exactly the **** I hate. You guys depend on x-stats for nearly EVERYTHING. You can't accept SOME theories? Thats no fun at all.

I'm no X-Stats fanboy, and not doing too shabbily myself. But even that is preferable to the circular logic that you utilized there.

And just for the record incase you think I have no experiance at this stuff, well uhh, I'm #5 on the leaderboard, and I've been in all the contests >_>

WE KNOW--because you keep saying it, over and over and over again. And Ulti has *won* a contest, that doesn't mean he's infallible either. Your logic here is flimsy, and I fully expect Mario to beat Crono handily here. You can laugh in my face if he doesn't, but that's what I truly expect, regardless of any stats.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

*Thumbs up* Cool.
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

Crono will beat Mario tomorrow.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

And regardless if Mario's opponents might be stronger than Crono's indirectly, there's no denying Mario's road was made much easier due to SFF. Crono had a tougher path here.

No way in hell he did. Mario had Samus. Crono had...Megaman or Sonic. Before the contest, it was always Samus > Crono.

Just because Crono made his path harder by sucking doesn't mean it was actually harder.
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

FACT or FICTION: A Snake vs. Crono rematch would be closer than 2k2?

I say FACT. Snake looks to be higher than ever before, and Crono looks to be down below his 2k4 levels...although even if he were up there, the match would be closer.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Bold prediction: Mario with 55%. I told you that was bold.

Heh, Mario could conceivably win with 57% if you're really optimistic (though not so likely). I predicted 55% in the Oracle Challange, along with 1 other person so far.

As Leonhart said, Mario with 55% makes Mega Man too weak. Won't happen.

Ah, but not only did Solid Snake grow from last year, but I'm pretty sure that Mega Man fell in popularity a bit, too. I believe it was Sonic that stayed pretty much constant with last year, based on several LS estimates. Besides that, based on a constant Mario, Solid Snake beats Zero with 56.60%. Mega Man beat Zero with 56.01% last year.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Mario SFF'ed Samus to hell and back, SFF aside, Samus would be right on his tail.

Btw, if you believed what Seph did on Liquid (who is roughly equal to Frog), Samus's performance against Frog doesn't look good at all.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

But, I couldn't imagine Frog being that far behind Magus...and Magus is near 30% on BL this year.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Mario vs. Crono Episode I: The Cheating Menace (Crono cheated, yes?)
Mario vs. Crono Episdode II: Attack of the Nintendrones (>_>)
Mario vs. Crono Episode III: Revenge of the Square
Mario vs. Crono Episode IV: A Nintendo Hope.
---
Vote for Mario, this year's contest champion!
Mario > Crono. Bank on it.

Btw, if you believed what Seph did on Liquid (who is roughly equal to Frog), Samus's performance against Frog doesn't look good at all.

...and if you believe what Sonic did to Diablo, Ganon loses to Auron.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

But, I couldn't imagine Frog being that far behind Magus...and Magus is near 30% on BL this year.

Recall that Vincent had AC leak to back him up before his match with Crono, he would've done MUCH better against Squall had AC been leaked before that match.

...and if you believe what Sonic did to Diablo, Ganon loses to Auron.

Honestly, what does Auron had anything to do with Sonic?

Sonic can go up and Auron can go down, there's absolutely nothing preventing that...

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Actually, it looks like somebody predicted Mario to beat Crono with 57% in the Oracle Challenge, anyway.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

By the way, when I was at EBGames the other day, in addition to picking up MGS2 for $8, I noticed that they were taking pre-orders for AC, and they listed the date as 11/28. Are there any other sources giving a date for the US release?
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

A Mario win with 55%+ is much more likely to occur than any sort of fantastically tight match. This won't be close.
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

I'm not gonna say FF:AC didn't affect Vincent against Crono, but I believe more in the FF7 > CT favoritism and the small generational advantage. Now, with the two combined, we can see how this happened...but I don't think it should JUST be attributed to FF:AC.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Honestly, what does Auron had anything to do with Sonic?

...Nothing? I'm not seeing your point here, I'm just mocking your poor logic of Liquid's weakness being the same as Frog's.

Sonic can go up and Auron can go down, there's absolutely nothing preventing that...


Agreed...just like Frog can go up and Liquid can go down. In 2k4, the argument was made that Zelda overperformed on Mega Man, because Lara went down so much. Surprise surprise, it was actually just year-to-year change, or perhaps a Samus overperformance on Lara. Just like Liquid either went down or underperformed on Sephiroth, which doesn't affect Frog at all. Just like it doesn't make Chief 2k4 < Chief 2k3, or Crash even weaker than he looked against MC.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

EBGames are a bunch of liars that will give whatever release date is convenient, then push it back/move it up as needed. **** them.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

Wait and see, folks. Wait and see.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

I agree that Mario is the favorite, but why is no one even giving Crono a chance?

Oh that's right, I keep forgetting that this topic can't look at things outside of the stats. My mistake.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars

I agree that Mario is the favorite, but why is no one even giving Crono a chance?

I see creativename, Leonhart, and HM all giving Crono a decent shot at winning.

Besides, some of us don't think Crono has a chance for reasons outside of stats. Mario has EVERYTHING going for him this year...and Crono seemingly doesn't.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

I agree that Mario is the favorite, but why is no one even giving Crono a chance?

Why would anyone give Crono a chance? I wouldn't've picked him to win even before the bracket was released, and I certainly wouldn't now. If I didn't consider the stats at all, I'd be even more assured of Mario's victory.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Agreed...just like Frog can go up and Liquid can go down. In 2k4, the argument was made that Zelda overperformed on Mega Man, because Lara went down so much. Surprise surprise, it was actually just year-to-year change, or perhaps a Samus overperformance on Lara. Just like Liquid either went down or underperformed on Sephiroth, which doesn't affect Frog at all. Just like it doesn't make Chief 2k4 < Chief 2k3, or Crash even weaker than he looked against MC.

You still don't get it, do you?

Magus's past opponents, except for Ganon, foresaw his defeat to Knux.

They indicated that Magus was vastly over-rated, and Knux finally proved it.

In Sp2k5, Liquid indicated that Frog was vastly over-rated, and Samus finally proved it, to a lesser extent.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Why would anyone give Crono a chance?

...What? You've never seen a Mario/Crono match before?
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Just to go WAY off-topic...Frog/MC rematch, does MC take it with ease this time?
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

Just to go WAY off-topic...Frog/MC rematch, does MC take it with ease this time?

Definitely.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

...What? You've never seen a Mario/Crono match before?

Huh? I thought we weren't supposed to use the stats?

Magus's past opponents, except for Ganon, foresaw his defeat to Knux.

Yeah, but if not for Knux getting a boost, Magus would've won anyway. Sam Fisher, Tidus, Ganon, and Luca Blight all look stronger this year than unadjusted 2k4 Magus would indicate.

In Sp2k5, Liquid indicated that Frog was vastly over-rated, and Samus finally proved it, to a lesser extent.


And...what about Master Chief? Please don't tell me you think he dropped the 5% Liquid says he did from 2k3 to 2k5. Crash's fall also becomes absolutely phenomenal. Frog isn't any weaker than MC 2k3's 26.15%.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.