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Summer 2005 Contest
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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 258
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/18/2005 1:32:27 PM | Message Detail
Mario/Crono IV. Nothing more needs to be said.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
From: Cokes11 | Posted: 9/18/2005 1:32:59 PM | Message Detail
RAWR
~~~
Trivia XV: Dragostea Din Tei
http://www.audioscrobbler.com/user/cokes311/
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/18/2005 1:33:02 PM | Message Detail
CORNO!!!!!
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/18/2005 1:33:14 PM | Message Detail
Mario is going to kick that son of a ***** Crono's ass so hard... that the next Crono wannabe... is gonna feel it.
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: ernest | Posted: 9/18/2005 1:34:48 PM | Message Detail
where's george lucas? we need to make a movie out of this and 30 years later we make the other three into movies as well
---
Nominate Ifnkovhgroghprm and Jay Solano for Sc2k6
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/18/2005 1:47:48 PM | Message Detail
Sir Crono shall be victorious.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 2:54:31 PM | Message Detail
Match 63: (1) Mario Mario vs. (2) Crono

Past Performances

Mario Mario


Summer 2002
Beat Servbot, 74.11% - 25.89%
Beat Morrigan Aensland, 66.81% - 33.19%
Beat Donkey Kong, 81.98% - 18.02%
Beat Cloud Strife, 50.11% - 49.89%
Beat Crono, 50.05% - 49.95%
Lost to Link, 37.47% - 62.53%
Ranked: 6th

Summer 2003
Beat Captain Olimar, 88.42% - 11.58%
Beat Shadow the Hedgehog, 55.10% - 44.90%
Beat Crono, 50.05% - 49.95%
Lost to Sephiroth, 38.40% - 61.60%
Ranked: 5th

Summer 2004
Beat JC Denton, 83.54% - 16.46%
Beat Bowser, 70.65% - 29.35%
Lost to Crono, 46.76% - 53.24%
Ranked: 6th

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2005
Beat Joanna Dark, 80.89% - 19.11%
Beat Ness, 82.80% - 17.20%
Beat Zero, 62.86% - 37.14%
Beat Samus Aran, 59.79% - 40.21%
Beat Solid Snake, 57.21% - 42.79%

Win - Lose Record
15-3

Crono

Summer 2002
Beat Simon Belmont, 76.78% - 23.22%
Beat Dante Sparda, 66.58% - 33.42%
Beat Lara Croft, 70.87% - 29.13%
Beat Solid Snake, 52.93% - 47.07%
Lost to Mario Mario, 49.95% - 50.05%
Ranked: 7th

Summer 2003
Beat Tom Nook, 85.81% - 14.19%
Beat Kefka Palazzo, 78.92% - 21.08%
Lost to Mario Mario, 49.95% - 50.05%
Ranked: 6th

Summer 2004
Beat Conker, 77.99% - 22.01%
Beat Janus “Magus” Zeal, 69.78% - 30.22%
Beat Mario Mario, 53.24% - 46.76%
Lost to Link, 37.18% - 62.82%
Ranked: 5th

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2005
Beat Zidane Tribal, 76.72% - 23.28%
Beat Tommy Vercetti, 70.85% - 29.15%
Beat Master Chief, 61.29% - 38.71%
Beat Vincent Valentine, 55.38% - 44.62%
Beat Mega Man, 51.50% - 48.50% (estimate)

Win - Lose Record
14-3

Analysis

It made sense for Mario to be in the finals. He’s the only character in this contest that has made it to the finals before and he’s the only character to defeat a member of Clinkeroth at anytime. It also seems like it just can’t be a contest without Mario vs. Crono even if they are put at opposite’s end of the bracket. I don’t want to repeat the analysis crew so I won’t go into detail of each match that they’ve had together. If you really want to read it waits for the analysis crew to post their analyses.

Like many people thought Mario easily took care of Snake. It’s not like he had a chance or anything, he struggled with Bowser. Also just for the record that was Snake’s worst beating ever. Mega Man tried to keep up with Crono once the match started; he even tried to make a slight comeback against him, but as the day went on Mega Man couldn’t handle the pressure against Crono. The match is still going as I’m writing this, so things could change.

Let’s have fun with numbers. If both Snake and Mega Man stayed constant Crono would win with about as much as he beat Mega Man with. If we use Bowser from the Spring Contest and Mega Man Mario would barely win. If Zero was constant Mario would beat a constant Zero. Using Squall or Master Chief Mario wins there. Using Diablo against villains Bowser puts both characters at almost equal with Crono at the advantage. And for my favorite, if Samus was constant, Mario would beat Crono with Cloud-like numbers. So as you can see the stats are screwed and using any combination gives you a different result.

Crono has every reason to win, but Mario is the favorite going into the match. The only thing that’s stopping from saying that Crono has a good chance was his match against Vincent and Vincent/Squall. I can’t see both of those characters being close to Snake, but not beating him handily. AC hasn’t spread that much yet. Give it a few more months or until the NA version is out.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 2:54:47 PM | Message Detail
This is also the last match to prove that Mario has any kind of chance against Sephiroth during the ToC. The winner of tomorrow’s match will place at least fourth, which neither of the characters have done yet. Crono may keep up during the night with Mario, but once the morning/after school vote starts it will be over.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Samus Aran over Crono

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mario wins, 52.45% - 47.55%
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/18/2005 2:57:05 PM | Message Detail
Let's see the spiky headed hero tie this thing up.

---
“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/18/2005 2:58:07 PM | Message Detail
Mario vs. Crono Episode IV: A Nintendo Hope
---
Vote for Mario, this year's contest champion!
Mario > Crono. Bank on it.
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:06:24 PM | Message Detail
I was close to making that 500 post..

Ah well, Mario >>> Crono by miles.
---
MARIOWNED
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:06:27 PM | Message Detail
Nice gain by Mega Man.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:11:34 PM | Message Detail
Hopefully tomorrow will be as much fun as Mario/Crono II
---
"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 152/160, Predicted Winner: Crono
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:12:04 PM | Message Detail
Hehe, I actually got the 500th post.

And I'm serious in what I meant... although, to be fair, Crono going slightly over 45% only really is a problem for the Devil division, and that'd prove there were some AC shenanigans at work. Oh, and MC's four-pack, as well. But then again, the better Megaman looks, the better Freeman looks... and I dare you to explain that one.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:13:18 PM | Message Detail
And I forgot... if Crono gets anywhere near Mario (not even needs to be as close as today's match), then Crono 2005 = most nonsensical run ever. And if he actually makes it into a nailbiter... God help us all.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Dark115 | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:13:57 PM | Message Detail
damn 1 second lol

And Mario > Crono tomorrow
---
http://users.ign.com/collection/Dark115.
Most Wanted: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (GameCube), Soul Calibur III (PS2)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:15:54 PM | Message Detail
Another good gain from Mega Man
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:17:00 PM | Message Detail
I said it before, and I'll say it again

If Crono beats Mario tomorrow, I win money.
Therefore Crono loses.


---
"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 152/160, Predicted Winner: Crono
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:17:09 PM | Message Detail
I'd love to see this topic's reaction if Crono wins tomorrow.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:17:35 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man quit trying to act like you're gonna come back..don't play with me.
---
MARIOWNED
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:25:10 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:26:51 PM | Message Detail
Here's some interesting stats...

Mario and Crono's records combined (BEFORE Mario/Crono): 26-0
Mario/Crono record: Mario leads 2-1
Mario and Crono's records combined (AFTER Mario/Crono): 0-3

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:26:58 PM | Message Detail
The only thing to have comeback from this far behind and this late into the match was Starcraft.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:28:51 PM | Message Detail
...not gonna happen. Crono certainly did NOT increase from last year, and the only way he didn't actually decrease is that Megaman's adjusted value is entirely correct and Sonic got a huge boost somehow. Meanwhile, the most likely scenario pegs Mario at 42% on BL. Ew.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:31:13 PM | Message Detail
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:26:51 PM | #022
Here's some interesting stats...

Mario and Crono's records combined (BEFORE Mario/Crono): 26-0
Mario/Crono record: Mario leads 2-1
Mario and Crono's records combined (AFTER Mario/Crono): 0-3


And these three defeats were all in a range of 1.5% (37.47%, 38.40% and 37.18%).
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:32:24 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:34:38 PM | Message Detail
I just find it interesting that Mario and Crono have never lost before facing each other and they have never won after facing each other. That's a bad omen for those who have "2005 Champion" over Sephiroth.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:35:07 PM | Message Detail
Like I said, if Crono makes it close, we just have our new WDF.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:36:39 PM | Message Detail
Good to see we're all on the same wavelength with this. We don't need more arguments like we had with Link/MM.
---
What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless
From: ScorpionX3 | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:37:50 PM | Message Detail
I have Crono in my bracket... but I now believe Mario will come out the winner.

How can I contact creativename?
_-¯-_
Most People are so Ungrateful to be alive, but not you... not anymore
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 9/18/2005 3:44:34 PM | Message Detail
Mario and Crono's records combined (BEFORE Mario/Crono): 26-0

Another note of interest about this record. Before facing each other, Mario and Crono have defeated four other Noble Nine characters, and one Clinkeroth character: Cloud Strife, Solid Snake, Samus Aran, and Mega Man.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:07:06 PM | Message Detail
Agree or Disagree:

Assuming the Advent Children boost exists (and is big enough to have an impact) Crono will gain from this, as new visitors are coming to GameFAQs to find out info on the movie. Most of these FFVII fans liked CT as well.
---
"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 152/160, Predicted Winner: Crono
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:12:47 PM | Message Detail
Assuming the Advent Children boost exists (and is big enough to have an impact) Crono will gain from this, as new visitors are coming to GameFAQs to find out info on the movie. Most of these FFVII fans liked CT as well.

Disagree...Mario Sunshine didn't give Link a boost against Sephiroth.

I'd love to see this topic's reaction if Crono wins tomorrow.

I don't get the point of saying something like this...it's like saying you'd love to see the topic's reaction if Cloud got 80% on Link. It's just not going to happen.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:12:59 PM | Message Detail
Agree or Disagree:

Assuming the Advent Children boost exists (and is big enough to have an impact) Crono will gain from this, as new visitors are coming to GameFAQs to find out info on the movie. Most of these FFVII fans liked CT as well.


I agree, the majority of FF fans have played CT at one point or another.

If AC did bring tons of FF VII fans to GameFAQs, then Crono will benefit significantly from this since most FF VII fans will vote for him over Mario.

Btw, Mario over Cloud never happened, it was Mario+PGC+SMS over Cloud, he was triple teamed.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:14:19 PM | Message Detail
Disagree...Mario Sunshine didn't give Link a boost against Sephiroth

How do you know this?
---
"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 152/160, Predicted Winner: Crono
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:15:05 PM | Message Detail
How do you know this?

Because Sephiroth's division is overrated by ~4% in 2k2.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:15:56 PM | Message Detail
I don't get the point of saying something like this...it's like saying you'd love to see the topic's reaction if Cloud got 80% on Link. It's just not going to happen.

Cloud has 0% chance of breaking 60% on Link, let alone 80%.

While Crono has a non-zero chance of beating Mario tomorrow.

Crono's chances may be really small, but it's there.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:34:57 PM | Message Detail
Mac Arrowny, you still around? I did that next write-up!
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:39:09 PM | Message Detail
Hmmm...how are vote totals coming along now?
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:47:06 PM | Message Detail
i asked this in the last topic and didnt get a clear answer. throwing all xstats out the window and just going by your gut, would mario or crono do better on seph?
---
current goty:Advance wars duel strike
possible goty contenders: castlevania dos, we love katamari, mario kart ds
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:47:26 PM | Message Detail
Crono certainly did NOT increase from last year, and the only way he didn't actually decrease is that Megaman's adjusted value is entirely correct and Sonic got a huge boost somehow. Meanwhile, the most likely scenario pegs Mario at 42% on BL. Ew.

Well, Crono based on Spring Contest Diablo puts him higher than 2004, for what it's worth.

Mario/Crono Episode I - The Phantom Menace (Crono looks like he might win before losing votes)
Mario/Crono Episode II - Attack of the Close ("Why is the poll still open?!")
Mario/Crono Episode III - Revenge of the Saiyan
Mario/Crono Episode IV - A New Hope/Hoax?
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:48:51 PM | Message Detail
would mario or crono do better on seph?

Mario. Crono just strikes me like it would be SFF...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: ShadowOwns | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:50:22 PM | Message Detail
Mario/Crono Episode I - The Phantom Menace (Crono looks like he might win before losing votes)
Mario/Crono Episode II - Attack of the Close ("Why is the poll still open?!")
Mario/Crono Episode III - Revenge of the Saiyan
Mario/Crono Episode IV - A New Hope/Hoax?

lol
---
*sigh* sonic's never going to be in the final 4 -_-
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:50:32 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth wouldn't SFF Crono.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:52:36 PM | Message Detail
Then, what would Mario/Crono V be if it, god forbid, happens? Who is the Empire that will Strike Back?
---
Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/18/2005 4:53:20 PM | Message Detail
Well, after this year, perhaps the Empire = Square since this was Nintendo's big year and Square hasn't had a great year since 2003.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/18/2005 5:01:07 PM | Message Detail
Vincent did awesome this contest, though. He did the most anyone thought he would do, and he did it well, at that. Squall had to face Vincent, but before that he came through as well. It wasn't so much Square sucking as just Nintendo being amazing.
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/18/2005 5:36:07 PM | Message Detail
I figured this would be filling up more quickly...
---
"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 152/160, Predicted Winner: Crono
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/18/2005 5:39:45 PM | Message Detail
Well, there's really nothing to discuss at this point because Crono's got this wrapped up.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 9/18/2005 5:39:52 PM | Message Detail
It gives me great honor to announce the winner of the Summer 2005 Contest Main Bracket, Mario!!!
---
SC2K5 Score: 125/144
Today's Pick: Crono
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