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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 257
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:37:01 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and the Stats are going to be so funny un-adjusted. Here's what I predict. (No time for math, so I might be off a bit. Also might have forgot some big people.)

1. Mario
2. Crono
3. Mega Man
4. Sonic
5. Vincent
6. Squall
7. Snake
8. Bowser
9. Kirby
10. Dante
11. Tifa
12. Samus
13. Zelda
14. Luigi
15. Zero
---
RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Crono vs. Mega Man - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono (108/144)
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:37:14 AM | Message Detail
Well, if Mario/Crono ends up being a 50-50 affair, then, either the entire Devil Division collectively increased, or Vincent managed to receive a boost from the AC leak.

...And...if the AC leak was what helped Vincent. Then...well...you can fill out the rest...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:38:20 AM | Message Detail
Vincent, Tifa, Kirby, Squall and Bowser all placing above Samus makes my day. I just wish Zelda did too.
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:40:26 AM | Message Detail
9. Kirby
10. Dante


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>XD

...And where's Knuckles (and Magus >_>)? I'd think he'd be up there.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:42:01 AM | Message Detail
...And...if the AC leak was what helped Vincent. Then...well...you can fill out the rest..

REPEAT OF 2003! <3 <3

---
“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:46:35 AM | Message Detail
If Crono evens the score with Mario tomorrow I must cheer for Link. If Mario wins... Cloud for the title!

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 133/144 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:49:56 AM | Message Detail
...And where's Knuckles (and Magus >_>)? I'd think he'd be up there.

Hmm..not sure. Possibly over Zero (both of them).
---
RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Crono vs. Mega Man - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono (108/144)
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:52:44 AM | Message Detail
If Mario/Crono is 50/50, here's what the top 16 looks like (if Crono/Mega Man ended right now).

1 Crono 50.00
2 Mario 50.00
3 Mega Man 48.61
4 Sonic the Hedgehog 48.25
5 Vincent Valentine 44.10
6 Squall Leonhart 43.58
7 Solid Snake 42.75
8 Bowser 42.25
9 Tifa Lockheart 42.07
10 Dante 40.57
11 Kirby 40.45
12 Knuckles the Echidna 40.27
13 Samus 40.21
14 Magus 39.57
15 Luigi 39.25
16 Zelda 38.98

---
"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:55:20 AM | Message Detail
12 Knuckles the Echidna 40.27
13 Samus 40.21


Once more, Knuckles triupmhs over someone who was supposedly better than Sonic.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:56:41 AM | Message Detail
One other thing:

30 Tommy Vercetti 29.15
31 Chun-Li 28.81
32 Gordon Freeman 28.55
33 Kefka 28.49
34 Ryu Hayabusa 27.48

---
"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:57:37 AM | Message Detail
I lied. One last thing:

40 CATS 24.13
41 Frog 24.09

---
"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/18/2005 10:59:45 AM | Message Detail
Haha! CATS is so damn high. XD

---
“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 11:00:23 AM | Message Detail
...So yeah, Halo 2 would turn the tide in a rematch >_>
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: ernest | Posted: 9/18/2005 11:02:30 AM | Message Detail
good contest heh with a fitting final
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Nominate Ifnkovhgroghprm and Jay Solano for Sc2k6
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/18/2005 11:03:59 AM | Message Detail
That does it; if we want to keep the world from imploding, we have to vote for Mario tomorrow. Not putting Mario over Crono means Gordon has a 50/50 shot at ending the world.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/18/2005 11:09:12 AM | Message Detail
Kirby and Dante are so close.
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 9/18/2005 11:17:43 AM | Message Detail
what percent do YOU think mario and crono at their current power levels would get on a current sepehroth(sp)
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current goty:Advance wars duel strike
possible goty contenders: castlevania dos, we love katamari, mario kart ds
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/18/2005 11:20:45 AM | Message Detail
CATS > Frog > Chief, so Chief rSFFed CATS!

Yay X-Stat abuse!
---
RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Crono vs. Mega Man - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono (108/144)
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/18/2005 11:21:48 AM | Message Detail
Wow, Crono is doing pretty well for the day vote, I'm losing confidence in Mario already.
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MARIOWNED
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 11:21:52 AM | Message Detail
Here's what the top half of the bracket look like (unadjusted)

North Division

1. Mario Mario
16. Yuri Hyuga

8. Ryu Hayabusa
9. Alucard Tepes

5. Tidus
12. Joanna Dark

4. Ryu
13. King of All Cosmos

6. Rikku
11. Riku

3. Samus Aran
14. Ness

7. Auron
10. Kratos

2. Kirby
15. Big Boss

East Division

1. Solid Snake
16. Manny Calavera

8. Chun-Li
9. Yuna

5. Ganondorf
12. Lloyd Irving

4. Zero
13. Albert Wesker

6. Vivi Ornitier
11. Cecil

3. Zelda
14. Agent 47

7. Sora
10. Frog

2. Bowser
15. Carl “CJ” Johnson

What kind of seeding upsets would you take? I would take Alucard over Hayabusa, Yuna over Chun-Li, Tidus over Ryu, Auron over Kirby, Ganondorf over Zero and Samus over Auron
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: ernest | Posted: 9/18/2005 11:37:55 AM | Message Detail
i wonder if next year ceej will keep the same bracket format
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Nominate Ifnkovhgroghprm and Jay Solano for Sc2k6
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:15:55 PM | Message Detail
Wow, I haven't posted in the last two topics! Looks like Mario/Crono IV is on the horizon, although I can't say it's not expected. I figured it would either be Samus/Crono or Mario/Crono. Mega Man and Sonic really impressed me in this contest. I thought Sonic was clearly a tier below Mega Man and Crono, but he really proved me wrong! I couldn't be any more happier!

Now all I need to see next year is a Sonic vs. Snake match in the Elite 8, or better yet, give Sonic a freebie like Snake got this year (although he still had to fight for it).
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: T4libKw4li | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:20:38 PM | Message Detail
Well, if Crono gets up to 52% on Megaman and Mario breaks 54% on Crono then Snake would be above Megaman and Sonic.. Its highly unlikely though =/.

However, Snake vs Sonic would be a hell of a match :)
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From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:20:52 PM | Message Detail
Man, why is everyone underestimating Snake so much? I doubt that Crono will manage to do much better, if at all, on Mario than Snake did. Do you guys really think that there's a bigger gap between them than there was in 2k2?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:21:37 PM | Message Detail
...

Crono is going to FAR better than Snake did. That's a damn guarantee.

---
“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:22:35 PM | Message Detail
And in case anyone's forgotten just how close they were...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=997
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2126

Snake 2k3 is stronger than Snake 2k2, and most agree that Snake 2k5 is at least as strong as Snake 2k3.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:24:13 PM | Message Detail
You consider those matches close to each other????
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:25:22 PM | Message Detail
Uh, no, my point is that they're not, and Mario's going to destroy Crono. Thinking Crono could get anywhere near to 57% on Snake is just laughable.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:25:26 PM | Message Detail
I would believe Crono's stronger than he was in 2002 too. Crono can do a great deal better than Snake and the gap still not be enormous between them.

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:26:23 PM | Message Detail
I thought you were rooting for Mari--

Nevermind..
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MARIOWNED
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:26:34 PM | Message Detail
and Mario's going to destroy Crono.

Yeah. We'll see about that.

---
“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:28:09 PM | Message Detail
Thinking Crono could get anywhere near to 57% on Snake is just laughable.

There is absolutely NO WAY Knuckles can beat Magus.

Leon = Tidus? That'd make Freeman stronger than half the field. You must be joking.

Mega Man flopped hard against Leon. He isn't gonna double Yoshi.

Ness is way too cult. He can't stand up to the mainstream power of GTA.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:28:19 PM | Message Detail
Well, if I wanted to make it really unfair for Crono, I could compare his and Snake's performances on Squall...after all, that worked out well for the comparison between Snake and Samus.

>_>
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:28:41 PM | Message Detail
Wait, but you say you don't expect Crono to do better than Snake on Mario? That would mean that you think they are equal. Crono has been about equal with Mario for the last three years! Now you suddenly think that Snake would give him a match? Mario will beat Crono no worse than Crono beat him last year. And that's IF he even wins...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:30:43 PM | Message Detail
There is absolutely NO WAY Knuckles can beat Magus.

Leon = Tidus? That'd make Freeman stronger than half the field. You must be joking.

Mega Man flopped hard against Leon. He isn't gonna double Yoshi.

Ness is way too cult. He can't stand up to the mainstream power of GTA.


I was always fairly confident in Gordon's strength, even before the contest began. HL2 was a big deal.

As for the others...they didn't happen in the finals of the contest. We get more new data with every match, our data on Ness was complete guesswork and our data on Magus was 2 years old. I'm not seeing your point here.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:32:23 PM | Message Detail
The point is that this contest has shown us that anything is possible.

People called me crazy for thinking Leon would be Tidus level, and he did.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:32:36 PM | Message Detail
Man, why is everyone underestimating Snake so much? I doubt that Crono will manage to do much better, if at all, on Mario than Snake did. Do you guys really think that there's a bigger gap between them than there was in 2k2?

1. Mario
2. Snake
3. Bowser
4. Kirby
5. Crono

That's why everyone assumes crono well do better then snake. It makes a hell of a lot more sense then that list.
---
"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:32:46 PM | Message Detail
*is
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:33:02 PM | Message Detail
Wait, but you say you don't expect Crono to do better than Snake on Mario? That would mean that you think they are equal. Crono has been about equal with Mario for the last three years! Now you suddenly think that Snake would give him a match? Mario will beat Crono no worse than Crono beat him last year. And that's IF he even wins...

So, tell me, what about Bowser/Ryu? In 2k3, they were virtually equal. In 2k4, Ryu increased a bit, and Bowser (through Guybrush, it's the best we can do) decreased a bit. In 2k5, Bowser wins with 59%. All it takes is a decrease for Crono and an increase for Mario, which aren't particularly crazy propositions at this point.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:34:54 PM | Message Detail
1. Mario
2. Snake
3. Bowser
4. Kirby
5. Crono

That's why everyone assumes crono well do better then snake. It makes a hell of a lot more sense then that list.


Definitely, that list doesn't make sense, but that's what Snake's bad pic is capable of accomplishing. Push Bowser a couple percent lower, and all is wonderful (except Samus, but she's good after adjustments).
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:35:05 PM | Message Detail
Guys, remember this:

- Ganon (through Seph) is slightly stronger than Bowser, and he could've accomplished where Bowser fell short, ending the noble nine myth.
- Sonic did MUCH better on Diablo than Ganon did.
- MM beat Sonic, even if it's by the hair of his teeth.
- Crono wins safely over MM.

I think Crono still has a chance to beat Mario, as small as it may be.

And with how weird this contest has been compared to 2k4, I certainly wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of a Crono victory.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Viviff | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:41:39 PM | Message Detail
I would take Bowser over Ganon
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*Is not TheCubeStud who got wrongfully banned and using someone else's account*
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:42:27 PM | Message Detail
So, tell me, what about Bowser/Ryu? In 2k3, they were virtually equal. In 2k4, Ryu increased a bit, and Bowser (through Guybrush, it's the best we can do) decreased a bit. In 2k5, Bowser wins with 59%. All it takes is a decrease for Crono and an increase for Mario, which aren't particularly crazy propositions at this point.

So basically, you are saying that Snake is now equal to Crono and Mega Man. M'kay.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:47:43 PM | Message Detail
Right these words down, because for the next 36 hours, I live by them:

Mario is going to kick that son of a ***** Crono's ass so hard... that the next Crono wannabe... is gonna feel it.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:48:19 PM | Message Detail
Mario won't be doing any asskicking tomorrow. ;)

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“I think my burden has lightened… Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:52:12 PM | Message Detail
So basically, you are saying that Snake is now equal to Crono and Mega Man. M'kay.

Crono and Snake were only 3% apart in 2k2. It's not like it would take much for that gap to close, especially compared to what happened in Bowser/Ryu.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:58:34 PM | Message Detail
Name you wish to be credited as: CJayC (not a joke, please check)

I have no picture to submit, but I do have a request: due to the history behind Mario and Crono, I think a nice touch would be to include past pictures used for Mario/Crono for the rotation you'll use tomorrow. I know that both 2k2's and 2k3's pic would work very nicely, and I doubt it would be too hard to see last year's pic flip the characters and logos (afew minutes, maybe).

Just in case you like the idea but don't keep the pictures on file, http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php is nice enough to keep all of the contest pics availible to everyone (though I think four first-round match-pics are missing in the first round of 2k2). Anyways, here's to hoping you consider it.

--HaRRicH



Good idea, bad idea, any chance of happening...thoughts?
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: transience | Posted: 9/18/2005 12:59:50 PM | Message Detail
I'll "right" those words down, all right.

Crono's doing better than I expected here - you go, boy. is Crono going to lose? most likely. he's had a nice little run this year though and has proven himself to be stronger than Sonic, Snake or Mega Man. 55/45 seems reasonable - anything closer and I'll be happy.

I've been thinking about it, and I do -not- want to see Cloud/Seph, Link/Mario or Crono/Seph. anything else is fine by me. Mario/Cloud would be ideal, though logically it's next to impossible.
---
.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/18/2005 1:00:03 PM | Message Detail
Crono and Snake were only 3% apart in 2k2. It's not like it would take much for that gap to close, especially compared to what happened in Bowser/Ryu.

But you're conveniently forgetting that Crono is beating Mega Man right now. The same Mega Man that took care of Snake for the past two years!!! And the year that Mega Man didn't beat Snake, Crono himself took care of him!!!

You keep bringing up Bowser/Ryu, but what is that supposed to prove? Ryu never directly faced Bowser before, so all you can compare is how he was "projected" to do through the X-stats. Crono has been DIRECTLY Mario's equal for the past 3 years! He even beat Mario with no contest last year! You think he would all of a sudden drop down to only 42% on Mario after doing so well directly against him? I really find that hard to believe...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/18/2005 1:00:14 PM | Message Detail
Crono and Snake were only 3% apart in 2k2. It's not like it would take much for that gap to close, especially compared to what happened in Bowser/Ryu.

See, we know where Bowser is, he was ranked through Seph just a few months back.

So if anything went wrong, it's Ryu's fault.

Btw, Mario -> Snake -> Sp2k5 Bowser is about dead even with Crono -> MM -> Sonic -> Sp2k5 Diablo at Crono's current percentage, which should go up somewhat as the night vote comes in.

Now I understand that the X-stats are worth jack **** in potentially close matches like this, but I think Crono still has a very small chance at the upset.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
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