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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 257
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:49:14 AM | Message Detail
*Wakes up*

Crono is leading, but Mega Man is coming back.

Mega Man has all day to comeback and build a lead for the night vote.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Blaze8888888 | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:50:15 AM | Message Detail
crono-mario final
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My mother's my sister!- Random Ped, GTA 3
From: ernest | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:50:36 AM | Message Detail
Mario ftw
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:50:42 AM | Message Detail
15 votes for Crono.

Nothign special combared to Megaman's 44.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: transience | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:52:09 AM | Message Detail
hmmm.... any guesses on who the character most likely to be stable on this side of the bracket is? Squall, maybe?
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.
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:53:44 AM | Message Detail
Squall is a good guess.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:54:29 AM | Message Detail
Why are you guys trying to adjust the x-st. Look what it did to us this year. I say leave them alone because 2k3 data doesn't stay the same over the years.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:55:33 AM | Message Detail
There goes the neighberhood.
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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:55:39 AM | Message Detail
Why not adjust them? I mean even if they aren't all that accurate, it's not like as many people are going to put as much faith in them as previous years.

FTW @ Crono.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: ernest | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:55:49 AM | Message Detail
by the way if you were to add up every vote total match which character has reciveved the most votes in gamefaqs history cloud/link? i say link he had one more match than cloud but sephiroth could have caught up with the spring contest
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:56:20 AM | Message Detail
Why is Crono still trying to get a lead.

...
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:56:56 AM | Message Detail
Votes dropped off in that update. ALL THE MEGAMAN VOTERS WENT TO CHURCH.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: transience | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:57:09 AM | Message Detail
my only problem with Squall is that he's based off Vincent this year, who may or may not have gotten some AC love vs. Crono.

anyway, assuming 2k3 Squall = 2k5 Squall and 2k3 Snake = 2k5 Snake (the two characters who have seemed the most stable this year to me), Mario would get 57.72% on Crono. blah.
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.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:58:33 AM | Message Detail
Clearly the most constant is....

Laharl.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:59:01 AM | Message Detail
Why not adjust them? I mean even if they aren't all that accurate, it's not like as many people are going to put as much faith in them as previous years.

Sure you can do them, but don't go overboard trying to adjust KOS-MOS, Ryu or Vyse because they don't look right.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/18/2005 6:59:17 AM | Message Detail
I agree.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:00:47 AM | Message Detail
If Crono keeps gaining this may be over.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:01:06 AM | Message Detail
Geez Crono.

NICE TRY MEGAMAN.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:01:15 AM | Message Detail
WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON??!

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: transience | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:01:26 AM | Message Detail
there's nothing wrong with playing with numbers.
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.
From: transience | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:03:02 AM | Message Detail
wow, go Crono. this match isn't over unless Crono consistently gains throughout the day, like numerous updates in a row. you guys see a 30 vote gain and think the match is over.
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.
From: jonthomson | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:03:39 AM | Message Detail
Why not adjust them? I mean even if they aren't all that accurate, it's not like as many people are going to put as much faith in them as previous years.

Because it's hard to gauge how much to adjust. Although it's not difficult to manually adjust the entire Zebes division up a few points to move people into the right ballparks, which park depending on entirely how much SFF you think there was. The best thing would be to go with an unadjusted list and have a script where you can input what you think the result of a SFF-affected match would be without the SFF, and have it calculate from there.

And it's still perfectly OK to use the stats, assuming you rely on your own judgment as to how much SFF there is in certain matches, and you don't assume that they're going to be correct when they come up with close results. The stats are never going to tell you the result of, say, Kirby/Dante with 100% certainty, and they're not intended to. That's where your judgment comes in. But it'd be safe to use them to call something like Snake/Fisher for example, if you knew nothing and couldn't see that as obvious in the first place.

And as an aside, we can do with less of those 10 minute 70 vote swings to Crono, and more of those 5 minute 44 vote swings to Mega Man.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Tai | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:03:48 AM | Message Detail
Why not adjust them? I mean even if they aren't all that accurate, it's not like as many people are going to put as much faith in them as previous years.

Adjusting is the reason no one picked Knuckles to beat Magus in the BOP or Guru. Basically, the consensus of veteran contest analyzers. Do we really want something like that to happen again? :-(

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Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it.http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565(225 Signs!)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:04:12 AM | Message Detail
there's nothing wrong with playing with numbers.

Of course there isn't, but saying that they are right is a different problem.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: jonthomson | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:05:05 AM | Message Detail
Sure you can do them, but don't go overboard trying to adjust KOS-MOS, Ryu or Vyse because they don't look right.

That's right. The reason for two of those drops are perfectly obvious, and Bowser's simply that much better than Ryu. Fact.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: transience | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:06:12 AM | Message Detail
do you make a bracket based 100% on the stats? I don't.

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.
From: Tai | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:06:26 AM | Message Detail
Down 21 :-)

Go, Mega Man! Knock Square's block off!
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Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it.http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565(225 Signs!)
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:06:56 AM | Message Detail
Does anyone think Crono has a chance? Mario beat Snake with 57.5%, Crono is struggling with Megaman.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: transience | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:08:09 AM | Message Detail
I think Crono will do decently, like better than Snake did. I don't think he has much of a chance at winning, but he has a better chance than anyone else.
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.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:09:34 AM | Message Detail
Does anyone think Crono has a chance? Mario beat Snake with 57.5%, Crono is struggling with Megaman.

There's a chance, but it'll most likely be like Mario/Crono III, but for Mario.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:10:05 AM | Message Detail
Actually, Mario Vs Crono IV
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MARIOWNED
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:11:47 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man needs 4 votes an update to catch up.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: cyko | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:12:38 AM | Message Detail
bah. i really hate this busy time of year at work. i have to work today, too. working in construction on a SUNDAY! bah. figures that i keep missing these good matches, too.

for today, it looks like Megaman is gonna keep it interesting. the updates seem very sporadic for the past hour. and seeing how i don't care for Crono at all, i'm cheering for Megaman for the comeback, here. go, Blue Bomber!!

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:12:40 AM | Message Detail
Actually, Mario Vs Crono IV

No that's this contest, I'm talking about III.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:14:10 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man needs 4 votes an update to catch up.

Let's see, Factor in Crono getting waker over the course of the day, factor in Megaman being good with the day and night vote, carry the three...

Conclusion: Crono had better not get too confident.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:15:25 AM | Message Detail
Crono is the best oldsquare character during the day vote.

He's not that bad.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:15:51 AM | Message Detail
Unless of course he continues to score 34 vote updates. -_-

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:16:01 AM | Message Detail
The 870 barrier.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:16:30 AM | Message Detail
Where are these random updeates comign from? Strange.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:17:31 AM | Message Detail
I'm calling it now: There' a small amount of Crono cheating, enough to put Megaman over the top.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:18:57 AM | Message Detail
If the cheator keeps doing it and as long no one cheats a lot for Mega Man.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: ernest | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:19:16 AM | Message Detail
yo that 280 vote update does look strange indeed
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
Ifnkovhgroghprm and Jay Solano for Sc2k6
From: transience | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:21:55 AM | Message Detail
it's 10am. people are waking up.
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.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:21:59 AM | Message Detail
2 280 updates in a row.

cool isn't it?
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:22:35 AM | Message Detail
Not when it's Crono who's getting the votes.
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MARIOWNED
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:25:46 AM | Message Detail
Crono only gained 3 votes that update.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:26:51 AM | Message Detail
Crono's managing to survive the morning vote....cool.
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Crono vs. Mega Man - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono (108/144)
From: ernest | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:27:39 AM | Message Detail
mega man is increasing like mad
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
Ifnkovhgroghprm and Jay Solano for Sc2k6
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:30:41 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man took back 1 vote.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/18/2005 7:32:56 AM | Message Detail
Watching your dreams of a comeback shatter as your 3rd is set back to where he was 2 and half hours ago is very painful.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
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