http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v496/snailien/MariovsCrono.jpg

I would like to select you as a winner for making this.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

It wasn't mine. It was snailien's.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Something screwy in Snake/Bowser? Why's that? Anyway, 57% on Crono is about what Mario'd be expected to get based on RPGuy's projections, who place Crono in a virtual three-way tie with Sonic 2004 and Snake 2003 (all in the same 0.1% IIRC). Of course, if Crono even gets there, he'll do better because he has to beat Mega first, but just a thought.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Something screwy in Snake/Bowser? Why's that? Anyway, 57% on Crono is about what Mario'd be expected to get based on RPGuy's projections, who place Crono in a virtual three-way tie with Sonic 2004 and Snake 2003 (all in the same 0.1% IIRC). Of course, if Crono even gets there, he'll do better because he has to beat Mega first, but just a thought.

Some people believed that Snake underperformed by 1%-2% due to Bowser's massive pic advantage.

He probably could've come closer to 51% had the pic be more "balanced", but I highly doubt he could actually touch 51%.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Snake or Crono? Who wins this year?
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Guitar players to the MACKS!!! Metallica is my MASTER-MASTER!!!
RIP-Cliff Burton "We are just the toys of the hands of another."

Snake had a much better sprite than last year, and performing well with sprites seems to be a CT side-character thing than anything else. Dunno why Crono would do the same no matter the picture but not Frog or Magus, but whatever.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Not that these are particularly useful, but here's the XS for the top half if Snake ends with 42.75%.

1 Mario 50.00
2 Solid Snake 42.75
3 Bowser 42.25
4 Kirby 40.45
5 Samus 40.21
6 Zelda 38.98
7 Zero 37.14
8 Ryu 34.66
9 Tidus 34.26
10 Ganondorf 32.44
11 Vivi 31.53
12 Rikku 30.69
13 Auron 29.78
14 Sora 29.70
15 Chun-Li 28.81
16 Ryu Hayabusa 27.48
17 Alucard 26.52
18 Yuna 25.17
19 Frog 24.09
20 Kratos 23.59
21 Riku 23.28
22 Cecil 20.04
23 Lloyd Irving 19.87
24 Joanna Dark 19.10
25 King of All Cosmos 18.82
26 Albert Wesker 18.01
27 Agent 47 17.38
28 Ness 17.20
29 Big Boss 16.98
30 Carl Johnson 15.43
31 Manny Cavalera 13.59
32 Yuri 10.20

SFF is funny.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Wow...Tidus is the strongest FFX character according to this...


Granted Auron is hidden behind A LOT of SFF fests...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Samus/Ganondorf didn't have the look of an SFF-fest... however, Mario/Samus can very well count for two of them. Still, that's nothing compared to the humiliation Ocelot took.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

4 Kirby 40.45
5 Samus 40.21

So wrong, yet soooo right.
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Mario vs. Snake - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Snake (108/128)

Also hilarious that Tidus is projected to beat the guy who beat him in 2k3 BEFORE the Ninty boost...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Tidus > Ganondorf, baby!
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"Stay there for me, trapped in memories."
"I...I won't become a memory."

Oh, and Tidus > Rikku > Auron > Yuna. I knew Tidus > Auron! Though Rikku over him is a bit surprising.
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Mario vs. Snake - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Snake (108/128)

LOL, and here I thought this year would result in more accurate stats. If Mega Man makes it to the final, we may be worse off than 2k4 left us.

Oh well, at least it was unpredictable this time around.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

Samus/Ganondorf didn't have the look of an SFF-fest... however, Mario/Samus can very well count for two of them. Still, that's nothing compared to the humiliation Ocelot took.

Seph beat LS MUCH worse than Samus beat Frog (who is roughly equal to LS), yet she did better against Ganon.

If that's not SFF, then what is?

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

It's... putting faith in a blatantly hopelessly screwed 4-pack.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Chun Li and Ryu H over Alucard is just like wtf.

Sephiroth might've overperformed on Liquid Snake, too...
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"Stay there for me, trapped in memories."
"I...I won't become a memory."

From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 11:13:49 PM | #264
LOL, and here I thought this year would result in more accurate stats. If Mega Man makes it to the final, we may be worse off than 2k4 left us.

Oh well, at least it was unpredictable this time around.

The problem is, the SFF matches happened early on last year. This time, it's near the end, so least square adjustments can actually work.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Meh, I just can't find a reason for Seph to overperform by leaps and bounds against LS only to proceed to drop the ball completely against Bowser.

I can buy Seph overperforming by up to 2%, but not anything more than that.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

You mind telling me why there has to be a correlation between Liquid and Bowser?
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"Stay there for me, trapped in memories."
"I...I won't become a memory."

So awesome seeing Chun-Li in the top half of the unadjusted. :)

You mind telling me why there has to be a correlation between Liquid and Bowser?

There isn't, I never said there is.

But overperforming by 5% and then underperforming by roughly the same amount in 2 consecutive matches is too much to accept even from someone like Seph, regardless of who his opponents are.

It's not like there's any SFF or any other potential explanation in any of those matches.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

I must note...if Diablo and Kefka were overrated in Sp2K5, that means Chun-Li > M. Bison after all.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

ID Type Status Created On
#11122 Contest Image Complete 2005-09-17 22:04:33

That means pics are up soon, and he's considering MMX pics!
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Mega Man >>>> Crono, book it.
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MARIOWNED

But overperforming by 5% and then underperforming by roughly the same amount in 2 consecutive matches is too much to accept even from someone like Seph, regardless of who his opponents are.

Okay, then you're making a correlation. There doesn't have to be one.
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"Stay there for me, trapped in memories."
"I...I won't become a memory."

Yea I seriously doubt Snake will be getting 43% here.
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Guitar players to the MACKS!!! Metallica is my MASTER-MASTER!!!
RIP-Cliff Burton "We are just the toys of the hands of another."

Okay, then you're making a correlation. There doesn't have to be one.

Whatever, I still think Seph's performance against LS is mostly legit.

And this makes Samus's performance on Frog downright disappointing.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Samus takes a big drop if Sephy's performance is legit, almost to the point that Ganondorf should've given her a big fight. I personally don't believe it was.
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"Stay there for me, trapped in memories."
"I...I won't become a memory."

ANNNNND Snake wins an update. ^_^

Moving into prime time for him. He's going to have to start moving if we're going to reach respectability here. Respectability...
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

Samus takes a big drop if Sephy's performance is legit, almost to the point that Ganondorf should've given her a big fight. I personally don't believe it was.

That's why I said "mostly", as in it's not 100% legit.

I'd give LS around 23% on BL, not more than that.

And I think Ganon should've given Samus more of a fight, but he got SFF'ed.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Final Four Match 62 – (2)Crono vs. (1)Mega Man
Red vs. Blue, it’s not a coincidence.

Crono
Round 1 – vs. Zidane (Crono: 76.72% - Zidane: 23.28%)
Round 2 – vs. Tommy (Crono: 70.85% - Vercetti: 29.15%)
Round 3 – vs. Master Chief (Crono: 61.29% - Chief: 38.71%)
Round 4 – vs. Vincent (Crono: 55.38% - Vincent: 44.62%)

Vincent does well, but Crono still comes out on top.

Mega Man
Round 1 – vs. Conker (Mega Man: 76.02% - Conker: 23.98%)
Round 2 – vs. Leon (Mega Man: 64.56% - Leon: 35.44%)
Round 3 – vs. Yoshi (Mega Man: 68.08% - Yoshi: 31.92%)
Round 4 – vs. Sonic (Mega Man: 50.37% - Sonic: 49.63%)

Mega Man had to fight off Sonic all day, and in the end, he barely managed to.

You thought Mega Man vs. Sonic was a toss-up, and now we go here. We have Crono, who’s looking about as hot as an ice cube, going against Mega Man, who’s performances have jumped around more than a kangaroo on crack. Let’s get to business.

In 2002 and 2003, Mega Man was ranked higher than Crono. In 2004, we saw Mega Man do 5% worse on Link than Crono did. Some of us thought it was SFF at the time, but most didn’t believe. Then Mega Man SFFed Yoshi, and the non-believers…in the words of Naruto, Believed it. So the voters look at Mega Man as Nintendo here, when he’s really Capcom’s *****. Interesting. Anyway, getting slightly off track. Back to the match at hand here.

In Round 1, both put up similar numbers on their opponents. Crono did a little better on Zidane than Mega Man did on Conker. Crono also faced Conker in 2004, and got 78% on the squirrel. It’s possible that Conker boosted though, because of Live and Reloaded. Still, I don’t know if I would put Zidane over Conker, so I’ll say Crono looked better here.

In Round 2, Crono had to face Vercetti, and most expected Crono around 70%. He delivered. Mega Man was expected to also get around 70% on Leon, who had just come off a 58% win over Gordon Freeman. Mega Man failed to bring it, and only beat Leon with 35%. Crono looked better by miles here, but it will be interesting to see after this match how badly Leon and Gordon were underestimated.

In Round 3, it was Crono’s turn to flop. It looked like he was easily going to double Master Chief in the beginning, but that quickly changed with the day vote. Master Chief fought all the way into the night and brought Crono down to 61%. Mega Man impressed by obtaining 68% on Yoshi. Not many believed Leon > Yoshi, so screams of SFF filled the boards. Nonetheless, Mega Man wins here.

In Round 4, Crono stepped up to the plate against Vincent. Vincent had some off close matches with Dante and Squall, and not many expected too much from him. Most were saying Crono under 55% meant instant death in his match against Sonic/Mega Man. Well…55% was delivered. Many were now looking at this round, and last round, and called a Crono drop. Mega Man went in an all day affair with Sonic, and barely won in the end. It’s hard to call a favorite this round, but I’d give it to Mega Man.

In short, Crono was looking better earlier in the Contest, but Mega Man has impressed more in the latter rounds. I’m expecting Master Chief (along with DK, Fisher and CATS to an extent) to turn up stronger than expected. Of course, this puts Vincent, Dante and Squall a little higher than I pegged them, but oh well. Either way, the Stats are going to look strange after this match. It’s another chance match folks, and I’m going with my bracket and Crono on this one. I won’t be surprised though if Mega Man does pull out a decent win though.

Either Mario/Crono or Mario/Mega Man…whoopie!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Crono will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Crono: 51% - Mega Man: 49%

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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Crono vs. Mega Man - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono (108/144)

Outback’s Analysis

This Analysis Brought To You By www.gizoogle.com

Up until his match wit Vincent, Crono looked like he was as strong if not shot calla tizzy last year. Playa wit only 55% on Vincent, it makes me playa how strong he really is. Afta all, Sonic gots mizzle thiznan 55% on Tifa, who is possibly gangsta thizzan Vincent, n Mega Man beat Sonic. While we really have no real beats on these poser it seems like, from tha types of brotha T-H-to-tha-izzat have seen increazes (Knuckles, Mario, Luigi, Kirby, basically old platforma ***** in general) that both Mega Man n Sonic would be mizzle likely ta receive n increaze this year thiznan Crono, n fo` tizzle reason I thiznink Mizzle Man will win.

Mega Man wit 52.30%



Inviso’s Analysis

Well, this match pretty much guarantees the finals will be total crap. We already have Mario as a lock ever since he beat Samus, and now we’re either going to have Capcom’s product whore, or the silent hero that is the worst PC in Chrono Trigger. I hope to God whoever wins the final gets pwned by Sephiroth. Here’s a rundown. Crono has not been able to get Square SFF this year, performing averagely against Zidane and Vincent, when he should have, as the stronger character, been able to SFF them. He performed well on Tommy, but come on; Tommy is just above fodder in these contests. And then he couldn’t double a character that not only couldn’t break 70% on CATS, but also barely beat Donkey Kong.

Mega Man in his first round, performed around the same level on Crono against a Conker, who in theory, should’ve gotten a boost this year from Live and Reloaded. He then severely underperformed on Leon Kennedy, a character that wasn’t even able to break 60% on Gordon Freeman, who still never wins. But then, in round 3, unlike Crono, Mega Man actually performed well. He did better on Yoshi, who has proven to be strong, than he did on Leon. He physically owned Yoshi, which will probably end up making Ocelot look to be one of the weakest characters in this contest. And in the elite 8, he took on Sonic in a highly anticipated match, and won in a close vote. It’s so sad that an icon on the level of Mario loses to someone like Mega Man, but whatever. Mega Man has proven in 3 out of 4 matches to be strong. Crono has not really shown any real strength yet, other than facing weak opponents.

My Bracket: Crono
My Vote: Crono
My Prediction: Mega Man with 51.92%



Tnote’s Analysis

Well, here we are. A final four match-up that is in doubt. Mega Man got here by beating Conker, making Gordon Freeman look like a midcarder, making Yoshi look like fodder, and needing 22+ hours to finally put away Sonic. Crono got here by cake walking over Zidane, Ray Liotta, Master Chief and Vincent. As for the match at hand, all of my support goes to Crono. My bracket is not dead yet, and needs Crono to win it all. The stats junkie in me is cheering for Crono, because Mario would SFF Mega Man as bad as he did Samus, and since Samus was higher than Mega Man to begin with, we may see a doubling. But I do not think we will have to worry about that. Crono and Mario have seem destined to clash since before the bracket was released, and I am not going to back down from there. Crono/Mario IV is everything we could have hoped for, with Mario getting the SSB:M boost, much needed after Crono whipped him (comparatively speaking) last summer. Mega Man will definitely perform better than Vincent, so we should be in for a treat, but to me, the writing is on the wall for another Mega Man final four defeat.

Pick: Crono with 51.83%

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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Crono vs. Mega Man - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono (108/144)

Soul’s Analysis

Round 4 Results

Crono defeated Vincent Valentine: 55.38% - 44.62%

Mega Man defeated Sonic: 50.37% - 49.63%

This match has potential to be absolutely amazing.

Too bad I have a bad migraine, or else I would write all about it. Since I don't have much time, I'll just say this: Crono better barely win.

My prediction: Crono with 50.01%. FINALS COMING UP!



Vlado’s Analysis

I sure didn't expect this match... I was fairly sure that Sonic would be able to beat Rockman, regardless of the Blue Bomber's huge win over Yoshi. It turned out that I was wrong. Have both Sonic and Mega Man increased? It seems very likely, and in that case, Crono may be in big trouble here... He may even lose... Something that seemed so unlikely before the contest. Not Rock, but Crono's the one who hasn't been impressive so far. After two standard victories over Zidane and Tommy Vercetti, he only got 61% on Master Chief, who practically tied with Donkey Kong... And, even with the Nintendo increase, Donkey Kong remains a character whose popularity is very limited. He then beat Vincent with just over 55%, another unimpressive win, but I think that it could really be fooling us, as, at the time of the match, Final Fantasy VII: Advent Children was already out and downloadable on the Internet, and Final Fantasy VII had started climbing the ranks in the Top 10 FAQs again. So that could mean that Vincent received a significant boost for the match, which would mean that Crono did not really do all that bad against him.

2005 was supposed to be Crono's year... Everything looked so perfect before the contest, with the three he'd certainly lose to out of the main bracket. Mario was to eliminate Samus, the only other character who could pose a threat to Crono, and then he was to repeat what he did to Mario in 2004... However, nobody realized that there could be such a big Nintendo increase like the one we've been seeing the whole tournament... And it's come to the point where the winner of this match will simply be the opponent that Mario will beat in the final match of the regular bracket...

Rockman's performance so far was much more impressive than Crono's. In the first round, he did what was expected against Conker, then he failed to double Leon Kennedy, which made people think he was weak, but it wasn't really so. Simply, a good part of the Capcom fanbase had supported Leon, taking the votes always reserved for Rockman. Not to mention that RE4 being Gamecube-exclusive so far helped Leon get a good deal of the Nintendo votes (that proved to be a huge number this contest). All that was made evident in the next match, where Rockman completely blew out Yoshi. Some people claimed there was SFF in the match... I just don't know what to think. There has to be some explnation for Rock getting such a huge win, that's for sure. What it is, I'm not sure.

Rockman's match against Sonic was the pinnacle of the contest. It was close the WHOLE day, until the very end. Just in the final 90 or so minutes it became clear Sonic wouldn't be able to come back again. Since we can be certain that Sonic became stronger than last year, especially after his impressive win over Tifa (if only the match was just 3 days later...), that simply means that Rockman has gotten stronger, too, and his huge win over Yoshi wasn't just luck or a simple overperformance. Can he beat Crono, though? If it weren't for Advent Children, I would probably have gone with yes. However, I have the theory that Vincent was stronger against Crono than in his previous matches, which makes Crono's performance against him not look that bad at all. It'll certainly be close, but I'll go with The Silent Hero in this one.

Predicted percentage: Crono with 51.34%.

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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Crono vs. Mega Man - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono (108/144)

Crono's still the favorite for tomorrow, eh?

I just wanna see the pictures.
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"Stay there for me, trapped in memories."
"I...I won't become a memory."

Crono is indeed the favorite.

Woah, deja-vu!

And yeah, I do too.
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Crono vs. Mega Man - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono (108/144)

I am going to be incredibly angry if MM pulls this out >_>

If Crono wins, all signs point to me getting a prize...
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"Frog > Samus, because Samus is a woman." - Dino Duck

HOO boy! Snake is on fire!

Push, Snake! Prove your superiority to Ganondorf, which this somehow does!
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

Another update win for Solid Snake.
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"Stay there for me, trapped in memories."
"I...I won't become a memory."

Hurray for 100,000 votes!
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"Stay there for me, trapped in memories."
"I...I won't become a memory."

This match won't break the highest vote total.

Zelda sure does bring in the votes.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

It's going to be close.
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Guitar players to the MACKS!!! Metallica is my MASTER-MASTER!!!
RIP-Cliff Burton "We are just the toys of the hands of another."

Holy **** at RPGuy's Mario/Mega pic. That's amazing.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars

Pics are up now.
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''

That's it, I am so voting Mega Man just by looking at those pictures.
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MARIOWNED

Why does Crono/Mega Man get like twice as many pictures as Mario/Snake? = /
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

I guess there must of been better sent in ones in general? ...
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MARIOWNED

I'm looking forward to seeing this match--both for how close I think it'll be and my expectation of a Crono/Mario final.

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“I think my burden has lightened... Maybe I dragged it along so much that it wore down.” – Cloud Strife

From: PiGuy96 | Posted: 9/17/2005 11:55:19 PM | Message Detail
ID Type Status Created On
#11122 Contest Image Complete 2005-09-17 22:04:33

That means pics are up soon, and he's considering MMX pics!

Looks like I was wrong on both counts.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie