Looks to me like Snake 2003 = Snake 2005 is going to be something to consider as a potential base for year-to-year variation.

Hmmkay, it's about time we discuss what to do with the Devil division in case of a Crono pwning tomorrow. If Crono wins 55-45... Squall = Sonic = Megaman? Bleh. I don't think even Leonhart would swallow that one. So yeah, that'd mean AC really had a big impact. Now RPGuy did some pretty damn good stuff with least square adjustments, and no one really looks out of place, especially the major players like Squall, Dante and Knuckles... but adjusting Vincent himself would be a *****. Would a proper American AC release push him even further? Was it just a surge the likes of which Mario experienced against Cloud and he really is on Squall's level for now?

Thoughts? Comments? Of course this is all pointless if Megaman makes it close or wins, that is, unless yesterday's result was due to a slight boost from Sonic, but it has to be mentioned.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

If Crono owns Mega Man tomorrow, then I'd feel a lot better about Cloud beating Link.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

I think it's similar, but not as big as, Mario/Cloud. I personally don't see Crono winning 55/45, so I don't think that will be a problem, but his entire division maybe a percent or two overrated.
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.

Everybody in the Devil Division but Knuckles is over-rated. Ahem.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

also, there were two consecutive Square/Square matches, one being new Square/new Square and one being new Square/old Square. something to think about.
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.

...What's there to think about? What does it matter?
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

snake is well probably gonna end up at the foot of the noble ine again but can you believe it? they stayed undefeated for so long. they will become the patriots of the contest. in 200 years they will rig the contest as they see fit
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

Well, yeah, they're 94-0 against outsiders. Unless CJayC decides to rig a Snake/Ganondorf match early in the first round next year, victory #100 is no concern whatsoever.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

that there's no fanbase overlap? you can't tell me there's none with ff7 and ff8. if so, I've got a nice dose of Cloud/Squall to show you.
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.

I'm just wondering what the significance of two straight Square/Square matches is.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Wow, we're already at 50,000 votes here. We're relatively equal to Mario/Zero right now. Mario and Snake have been on the winning ends of the two most popular polls thus far, so it makes sense that they'd combine to make the biggest.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

The odd thing is that Samus has always been one of the biggest non-Clinkeroth vote draws, but this year... nope.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Match 62: (1) Crono vs. (1) Mega Man

Past Performances

Crono

Summer 2005
Beat Zidane Tribal, 76.72% - 23.28%
Beat Tommy Vercetti, 70.85% - 29.15%
Beat Master Chief, 61.29% - 38.71%
Beat Vincent Valentine, 55.38% - 44.62%

Win - Lose Record
13-3

Mega Man

Summer 2005
Beat Conker, 76.02% - 23.98%
Beat Leon S. Kennedy, 64.56% - 35.44%
Beat Yoshi, 68.08% - 31.92%
Beat Sonic the Hedgehog, 50.37% - 49.63%

Win - Lose Record
14-3

Analysis

This is looking to be an awesome semi-final match. The board hasn’t really given much of an advantage to either character, but it looks like Mega Man is the slight favorite going into the match. With Frog and Magus not living up to last year’s expectations Crono may do the same. This should be a great match regardless on who wins.

Last round I gave Crono the benefit of the doubt, but after not living up to expectations with Vincent it looks like Crono has really dropped. I would still take Aeris > Tifa > Vincent and since Mega Man who beat Sonic who beat Tifa by more than Crono did this doesn’t look very good for Crono. Though, with the upcoming games for Vincent that might change. Mega Man had a great match with Sonic. I remembered it like it was yesterday. Mega Man had to rely on the 2nd night vote in order to stall Sonic and gain on him at the final hours.

The only thing that’s helping Crono is that Vincent got AC before the match and that could’ve helped him while it didn’t help him so much during the other matches. The only problem is that the movie was released in Japan only and even if people import it I don’t think it would make so much of a huge difference. If Vincent is going to benefit from the movie it won’t happen until next contest.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Crono became the weakest noble 9 this year. I never really saw why he was really strong he only has one game that was released 10 years ago. Cloud and Sephiroth had FFVII, but this site was built around it (I don’t see Cloud or Sephiroth doing very well outside of GameFAQs). If Crono was to get a new game then I can see him becoming stronger, but as time passes Crono is only going to get weaker.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Crono over Mega Man

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man wins, 50.83% - 49.17% (first time I'm going against my bracket)

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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Crono better perform well on MM, or else my plans of him beating Mario = not gonna happen <_<
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

And Vincent >= Aeris > Tifa damnit
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

This match is going to break 60k before it's half done.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

And Vincent >= Aeris > Tifa damnit

Next year yes, but not this year.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Nope, I disagree. But I can see your logic as well.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

Nice job, Mario.

And XD at Smurf in the last topic arguing over Shadow. Please, by all means take him to win many matches.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

Snake 2005 > Snake 2003

I don't think 2k3 Snake could tame the beast Bowser transformed to during/after the Villians' Contest..

Since we are talking about old stats (Snake 2k3).. Snake 2k3 got 57% vs Ryu. Snake 2k5 would be projected to get 61-62% on Ryu. This is all assuming Ryu stays constant :( Which I thought he did. I can't see Ryu dropping 5% :( I just can't.
--

So much for him being consistent.
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MARIOWNED

Snake's taking the day vote or at least stalling Mario?

I know Mario isn't that good with the day vote, but I thought he would at least break 58%. This might not be Snake's biggest defeat yet.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Well, from the looks of things, our three primary measures of consistency--Ryu, Knuckles, CATS--all changed this year.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Fight Mario! For everlasting 58.27%!

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 133/144 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)

Ryu was the most consistent character from 2k2 -> 2k4..I just cant see him dropping off 5% in a random year..

I don't see it as a Ryu drop. I just think Bowser was that strong..In terms of Rikku, she got as much as Yuna (Figuring in her 3% boost) would be expected to get...so maybe Yuna = Rikku..

I dunno =/.
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42.41% > 58.27%
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Using the villain contest Bowser still makes Ryu looked like he dropped.
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MARIOWNED

Fight Mario! For everlasting 58.27%!

charmander6000’s Bracket: Samus over Solid Snake

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mario wins, 58.23% - 41.77%

>_>
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Knux was consistent..

40% on Snake was apparently strong since Crono would be expected to that...
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err..

Kunx would be expected to get 40% on Crono =/.
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I doubt Knux was 100% consistent. Getting 40% on Crono doesn't say anything.
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MARIOWNED

off topic:

Leonhart, how do I watch AC with english subtitles.. I have downloaded both of them. Do I just need to put them in the same folder?

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

Download Vobsub and use that to put them together. You'll have to watch it on WMP though, so you'll have to get DiVX, too, if you don't have it.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Getting 40% on Crono = Some Sign of Strength.
---

I use VLC player and that plays everything.

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

I have VLC, too, and I couldn't get them to play together for anything.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

That's not what he's expected in 2004 though, so, he's not the same as he was years back.

Same thing for Vyse, what the hell happened to him? Laharl just might be able to...beat him now. If there's enough "weird SFF/some weird underperformance" in Mega Man Vs Yoshi.
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MARIOWNED

What do you mean put them together, as in the same folder?

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

Yeah, basically.
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"Stay there for me, trapped in memories."
"I...I won't become a memory."

I am just trying to watch it with the Jap Subtitles for now but VLC player doesn't even seem to play it?

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

these vote totals honestly rock
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

There's no way FFAC had a significant - if even a minor - benefit in Crono/Vincent. It was predicted to go about 60-40 and instead went 55-45. That's not a difference of epic proportions. There's plenty more plausible reasons to consider before going to the japanese release of advent children had a big effect on the match, such as new/old sff, Squall got *stronger* this year, Crono got weaker this year, or characters don't say constant year to year.

It surprised me that everyone was shocked with Vincent's performance even after he's been surprising all along. Crono looked bad against Master Chief, and the match really had to fall a few points under that, unless you want to start considering things like Donkey Kong > Squall...
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

If Squall got stronger, where's him blowing Knuckles away?
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

I just noticed i had Megaman>Crono O_O
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*sigh* sonic's never going to be in the final 4 -_-

Knuckles got stronger, too?

He did beat Magus, after all.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

Magus was an overrated fraud from the start, and RPGuy's least square adjustments already are generous enough towards those two.
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What online fan couldn't get behind Trevor Murdoch? I mean, finally, a wrestler with our physique! -Sean Carless

Knux is strogner too, obviously. Heck, even is Squall ends even Knux will look higher, iirc. There has to be areason he passed up Shadow and Tails for the slot, right?

Knuckles is stronger. Sega seems to have increased this year, although not nearly as much as Nintendo.

Anyway, I just finished Metal Gear Solid. Wow...just wow. #8 on my Top 10 list.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

you know what im wondering? what do you think mega mans power comes from contest wise? old school appeal such as his nes snes games only? his psx X games and the legends series? or could it be how populare the .exe thing is on gba? isnt there 6 already? because the only character who seems to be at his level who doesnt have some high selling new games are old square rpg characters.
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current goty:Advance wars duel strike
possible goty contenders: castlevania dos, we love katamari, mario kart ds

next contest i should think logically and not screw myself over by having samus winning the main bracket >_<
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*sigh* sonic's never going to be in the final 4 -_-