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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 255
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:32:50 AM | Message Detail
Sonic
Donkey Kong

Squall
Zero

Kratos
Master Chief

CATS
Link

***

Sonic
Squall

Master Chief
Link

***

Sonic
Link

***

Link

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:34:21 AM | Message Detail
Fanboyism isn't synonymous with logic.

I was told, this when I picked Squall to win the devil division.

After seeing what happened, it wasnt the worst pick in the world.

My group is heavy on the leader board and I have 117 points.

I am Squall Fanboy, but I picked the tournament with logic.


KB
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:35:22 AM | Message Detail
And as for a four pack of fun...

Auron
Zero

Vincent
Kirby
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:35:35 AM | Message Detail
...what made you think I was referring to you???
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:35:52 AM | Message Detail
Vincent

Zero

Vince.


KB
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:36:30 AM | Message Detail
Kyle Four pack of fun.


Next year.




Bowser
Ganondorf

Squall
Auron



KB
From: ernest | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:37:03 AM | Message Detail
but squall winning the devil division was not illogical if you look carefully at the other characters. only vincent proved stronger tan we thought. heck i picked squall to win his division and always was nervous for picking ocelot>pacman cause i believed kefka=pacman>ocelot but wasn't sure so i took the seemingly safe pick
---
What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:37:12 AM | Message Detail
Auron
Zero

Vincent
Kirby


Zero < Kirby

My impression, yeah.

---
MARIOWNED
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:37:27 AM | Message Detail
...what made you think I was referring to you???

I didnt think you were, I thought you were talking to the guy who said Squall would beat Sonic.

I just responded to that statement because i have experience with it.


KB
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:37:57 AM | Message Detail
Wow, a lot of people would have lost points on that bracket! Here's how it would really happen......

--Round 1--

1 Sonic The Hedgehog (Obvious)
16 Conker

8 Miles "Tails" Prower
9 Donkey Kong

Close match that could go either way

5 Squall
12 Ness

4 Zero
13 Shadow The Hedgehog (58%)

6 Kratos Aurion
11 Amy Rose

A real toss up.

3 Master Chief
14 Tommy Vercetti

Chief is overrated and an anti-vote magnet.

7 CATS
10 Agent 47

2 Link
15 Knuckles (Knux never loses in round 1, duh!)

--Round 2--

Sonic
DK

Squall
Shadow (55%)

Amy Rose
Tommy Vercetti

CATS
Knuckles (Knux always loses in round 2, duh!)

--Round 3--

Sonic
Shadow (His new game and pic will RSFF Sonic)

Tommy
CATS

--Final--

Shadow 67%
Tommy Vercetti 33%

---
^ Smurf, The cream of Sonic fanboyism.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:38:31 AM | Message Detail
No, I was referring to the statement that it seemingly defies logic for Sonic to be ranked a 1 seed over Link...which, it does...
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:38:38 AM | Message Detail
And using Bowser through the villain contest, Mario would have to beat Snake by at least 59% to give Sephiroth any kind of challenge at all.

Meh, dreams..shattered...
---
MARIOWNED
From: ernest | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:39:59 AM | Message Detail
if smurf is so logical then what's his current score in the contest bracket?
---
What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:40:19 AM | Message Detail
And using Bowser through the villain contest, Mario would have to beat Snake by at least 59% to give Sephiroth any kind of challenge at all.

Hardly. It's blatantly obvious that Bowser overperformed on Snake because of the sprite, just like Frog did, and maybe Ryu did too, back in 2k3. Bowser needs to be adjusted down to the level where Zelda > Kirby.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:41:25 AM | Message Detail
How is it obvious that Bowser overperformed on it like Frog? I think that's more of Frog's doing than snake's personally. Unless you think Frog would give Bowser a good match.
---
MARIOWNED
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:41:42 AM | Message Detail
Assuming, of course, that nothing went screwy last round...which isn't a given at all, IMO. Again, I called for this beforehand--an overperformance by Snake makes me look at the sprite again. It's not like it's unfathomable that it makes a difference a la Frog/Snake...the question is just...how much?
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:42:32 AM | Message Detail
How is it obvious that Bowser overperformed on it like Frog? I think that's more of Frog's doing than snake's personally. Unless you think Frog would give Bowser a good match.

Frog did that to Snake 2k4, who is well below Snake 2k5.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:43:28 AM | Message Detail
Chrono Trigger characters do betetr with sprites, especially Frog and Magus.

Snake does horrible with sprites.

Frog had more support last year.

Do the math.

---
Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:43:49 AM | Message Detail
I don't think we should adjust the x-st this year. You just have to remember what happened to a certain character when you do your bracket next year.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:44:07 AM | Message Detail
How is it obvious that Bowser overperformed on it like Frog? I think that's more of Frog's doing than snake's personally. Unless you think Frog would give Bowser a good match.

Of course he wouldn't...Snake 2k5 > Snake 2k3 > Snake 2k2 > Snake 2k4, and Snake's sprite this year is substantially better. I'm only calling for a pic factor of a couple percent, nothing extreme.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:44:52 AM | Message Detail
I've got a score of 113 right now (Damn you Samus!!)

I've made the top 50 in the last 3 contests (Although it was an alt this time.)

Regardless I know what I'm talking about.
---
^ Smurf, The cream of Sonic fanboyism.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:45:20 AM | Message Detail
I don't think we should adjust the x-st this year. You just have to remember what happened to a certain character when you do your bracket next year.

If we can adjust Spring 2k4, we can adjust this year. Besides, we don't have to look at the adjustments.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:47:00 AM | Message Detail
I don't know about anyone else, but when the next games contest rolls around I'm not taking a damn look at the adjusted stats, and I'm going to take the unadjusteds with a HUGE grain of salt. I'm probably going to just wing it, actually, which had me doing pretty damn well through the whole thing until Starcraft ****ed me over.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:47:03 AM | Message Detail
Snake 2k5 is probably's gonna be Snake's best year, I agree.

A couple percent points of course isn't too extreme, but even if I still use what Bowser got on Sephiroth, Mario still doesn't have much of a chance even by using that.
---
MARIOWNED
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:47:21 AM | Message Detail
I don't think we should adjust the x-st this year. You just have to remember what happened to a certain character when you do your bracket next year.

Samus is an obvious one. So is Ness.

Yoshi and Sora could be argued though.


---
^ Smurf, The cream of Sonic fanboyism.
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:47:41 AM | Message Detail
Lucky smurf bieng on the leaderboard.

How do they pick which ones of the group get on and which dont?

I could SOO be on right now.


KB
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:48:31 AM | Message Detail
It depends on how early you make your bracket if you're tying.
---
MARIOWNED
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:49:30 AM | Message Detail
Don't forget that this match isn't over yet. Mario has plenty of time to push past 57% and beyond. Snake is woefully weak from here until the second night vote--and even then, it only kicks in late for him.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:51:03 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, he can still push to 57% and beyond, but Mario will just drop around night too.
---
MARIOWNED
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:51:27 AM | Message Detail
I've been here for 15 min. and Mario has gone up by .37%

Mario may just break 58%.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: assman20 | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:53:13 AM | Message Detail
32 on the board...Mario's performance today is making me look good for a run to the top ten, perhaps.

Mario > Snake
Crono > Mega Man
Mario > Crono
Link > Cloud
Sephiroth > Mario
Link > Sephiroth


I'm only worried about Crono/MM and Seph/Mario.
---
The Italian Stallion. The Blue Blur. The Finals.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:56:17 AM | Message Detail
Mario just got 63% on that last update.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:57:30 AM | Message Detail
It makes me wonder how much Samus would be getting right now.
---
MARIOWNED
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/17/2005 6:59:11 AM | Message Detail
Bah, numbers like these aren't making Mario look good for taking down Seph, but if Snake did boost, then...I dunno.

I bet Samus would have done better, Mario fans. =P
---
RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Mario vs. Snake - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Snake (108/128)
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:10:24 AM | Message Detail
Eh, this isn't looking so great for Snake now...then again, he's never faced such a strong opponent with such a comparative advantage with the morning vote. I guess I'll stick around until Mario hits 57% or until the morning vote dies down, and I'm almost certain it'll be the former.

Oh, and Mario NEEDS to beat Sephiroth now...by more than he's beating Snake, of course. Kirby > Sephiroth is logical, after all. <___<
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:11:17 AM | Message Detail
Megaman beating Sephiroth would be far mroe awesome. He'd finally get his revenge.

---
Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: T4libKw4li | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:11:35 AM | Message Detail
Karma you aren't even a Snake fan. You didn't believe that Snake could get around 45..

In fact, you called 43 a "moral victory"

I can name 5 Snake fans better than you. You have failed, Solid son -.
---
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:11:57 AM | Message Detail
Yes, but Mega Man has a brick wall to get there--namely, Mario.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:12:26 AM | Message Detail
Yes, I know Megaman can't win. I'm just saying it would be awesome.

---
Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:13:29 AM | Message Detail
Karma you aren't even a Snake fan. You didn't believe that Snake could get around 45..

In fact, you called 43 a "moral victory"

I can name 5 Snake fans better than you. You have failed, Solid son -.


Coming from an indifferent person, that's pretty much saying "You weren't bias enough!"
---
MARIOWNED
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:13:57 AM | Message Detail
Karma you aren't even a Snake fan. You didn't believe that Snake could get around 45..

...is he? No...

You know, I could believe that Snake could outright *win*, but that wouldn't make it correct. My expecations are realistic.

In fact, you called 43 a "moral victory"

And it is. If Snake can get 43% at the end of this, it's one hell of a moral victory for him, and speaks wonders about his strength depending on how Mario does in the finals and the ToC.

I can name 5 Snake fans better than you. You have failed, Solid son -.

Uh huh...
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:15:21 AM | Message Detail
And I think Mario or Mega Man beating Sephiroth would be great, either one gets revenge, and even better, Sephiroth would finally get beaten by someone not named Link or Cloud.
---
MARIOWNED
From: Habito | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:15:45 AM | Message Detail
I probably should have posted this question earlier, but meh.

Fact or Fiction: Mario will hand Snake his worst defeat % wise.
---
"Waspinator has a headache in his whole body" - Waspinator, Transformers: Beast Wars
I newb me wanna ask newb question - mjbolin
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:16:54 AM | Message Detail
If Mario does better on a stronger Snake than what Mega Man did on a weaker one..

That would be cool.
---
MARIOWNED
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:18:08 AM | Message Detail
Oh, man...*probably* fact, but there's something that gives me hope--Mario isn't going to be able to consistently hand Snake's ass to him all day like MM can...Snake might just edge it out in the latter half of the day.

...still, probably fact. ;_;
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:20:21 AM | Message Detail
We're looking for less than 42.81% for Snake.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:21:20 AM | Message Detail
And as of now Snake is only .33% away from it.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:22:36 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, and we've got a long way to go...we're around halfway from where Mario should reach his peak here. He should either maintain, gain a little, or lose a little during the day, and then Snake can steal back a bit with the second night vote. We're still probably looking at Snake's biggest loss here. Still, at least it's not 60/40...
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:23:07 AM | Message Detail
I'm going with fiction. Snake is Snake. Snake is Snake. Snake is Snake. End of argument.

*watches as Snake loses an update by 144 votes*

Snake is Snake. Snake is Snake. Snake is Snake...
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Habito | Posted: 9/17/2005 7:24:04 AM | Message Detail
As of now, I'd have to say Fact as well, although earlier I would have probably said Fiction. For me, this is probably the most interesting aspect to follow as the match progresses, as it seems 60% is out of reach.
---
"Waspinator has a headache in his whole body" - Waspinator, Transformers: Beast Wars
I newb me wanna ask newb question - mjbolin
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