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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 255
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:06:42 AM | Message Detail
<3

Go Mario.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Mistress Snake
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:06:50 AM | Message Detail
Snake is holding up hella wonderful.
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From: ernest | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:07:51 AM | Message Detail
woohoo snake>samus>megaman>sonic
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:08:32 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
114----2--------50.0000000
113----7--------85.7142857
112----3--------100.0000000
111----7--------71.4285714
110----16-------75.0000000
109----38-------78.9473684
108----42-------80.9523810
107----66-------71.2121212
106----96-------84.3750000
105----101------76.2376238
104----130------68.4615385
103----173------68.2080925
102----184------71.7391304
101----291------78.0068729
100----298------69.7986577
99-----342------71.0526316
98-----354------64.6892655
97-----398------64.5728643
96-----385------68.5714286
95-----350------62.5714286
94-----384------62.5000000
93-----391------58.3120205
92-----393------55.9796438
91-----413------59.5641646
90-----427------52.4590164
89-----454------51.7621145
88-----491------48.2688391
87-----483------47.4120083
86-----532------50.1879699
85-----543------42.7255985
84-----564------43.9716312
83-----537------40.7821229
82-----593------39.2917369
81-----577------36.2218371
80-----582------38.3161512
79-----651------37.7880184
78-----620------38.0645161
77-----635------37.3228346
76-----614------34.5276873
75-----640------32.0312500
74-----662------32.0241692
73-----627------34.2902711
72-----635------27.5590551
71-----646------29.1021672
70-----670------30.1492537
69-----654------28.5932722
68-----639------25.3521127
67-----623------25.5216693
66-----627------24.4019139
65-----619------25.3634895
64-----601------23.1281198
63-----650------22.0000000
62-----596------18.1208054
61-----565------19.6460177
60-----538------20.2602230
59-----593------17.5379427
58-----613------17.6182708
57-----524------15.8396947
56-----497------15.6941650
55-----497------13.6820926
54-----538------16.7286245
53-----470------15.9574468
52-----459------13.9433551
51-----466------14.5922747
50-----450------12.6666667
49-----398------13.3165829
48-----405------11.3580247
47-----396------11.6161616
46-----343------9.9125364
45-----293------10.5802048
44-----355------16.6197183
43-----309------9.0614887
42-----270------10.7407407
41-----264------7.9545455
40-----252------9.1269841
39-----240------6.6666667
38-----208------5.2884615
37-----212------7.5471698
36-----179------1.1173184
35-----174------4.0229885
34-----151------3.9735099
33-----115------0.0000000
32-----137------0.7299270
31-----88-------3.4090909
30-----86-------1.1627907
29-----64-------3.1250000
28-----62-------1.6129032
27-----55-------0.0000000
26-----47-------2.1276596

Everybody with a score of 25 or less got the match wrong.

Great performace by the top tiers. A lot of them had prediction percentages in the mid-70s to low 80s. We lost one of the last two -6s. harderbr looks to be in good shape to be first going into the ToC.

11 people fell off the Top 50 today. HalfThere, Rabite, Kenoxe, Jay_Pee, stripey12isback, maverickt00, Dark_cloud1986, nez77, Steinershocker, Silent_Janus and TheDarkMasamune didn't have Mega Man edging out Sonic today.
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:09:06 AM | Message Detail
The next update or two will be the telling point. I'm hoping Snake can pull closer than 54-55% in the night, so that the percentage hit will be less painful on him as we go.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: DaruniaTheGoron | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:10:23 AM | Message Detail
Damn, if Sonic won I would have gained so much. Oh well, my bracket is pretty screwed anyway.
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The only thing O.J. is guilty of is mercilessly slashing through all defenders to score touchdowns. - ImNotYou
Proud member of the Hylian Knights--99/120 in the 2k5 SC -- XBL GT: Vance Mendoza
From: ernest | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:10:35 AM | Message Detail
so which one of the three pics is best?
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:10:52 AM | Message Detail
My only complaint about this contest is that we haven't had a photo finish. The closest match was Sonic/Mega Man, and they're 742 votes apart. After that is Vincent/Squall, at over 1100!

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: T4libKw4li | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:10:59 AM | Message Detail
Snake holding at 45.16..

****ing Beautiful.
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From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:11:01 AM | Message Detail
Damn nice Votals.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Mistress Snake
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:11:11 AM | Message Detail
I personally like the gray one.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:11:17 AM | Message Detail
Solid Snake 45.16%

Keep it up, Snake. =)
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:12:57 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and if anything, Samus should be auto-adjusted above Snake...

Just because...>.>
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Mario vs. Snake - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Snake (108/128)
From: T4libKw4li | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:13:24 AM | Message Detail
rofl No..

Snake > Samus :)
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:14:16 AM | Message Detail
We should expect good votals today, it's Mr. Nintendo versus a Noble Niner. Snake already has a place in the highest votal match so far, I'd like to see him break it here with his departure. ^_^

Where does this put him on BL with Mario through an unadjusted and/or adjusted Zero? I know it's not going to hold up, but I'd like to know what to expect here. = /
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: ernest | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:14:40 AM | Message Detail
so how many gurus are in the top 50? with the universal account names i'm lost
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:14:55 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, but Bowser and Kirby also > Samus?

C'mon on, tell me that Kirby would beat Samus. I dare you.
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Mario vs. Snake - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Snake (108/128)
From: T4libKw4li | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:15:23 AM | Message Detail
Mario > Snake > Samus > Crono > Megaman > Sonic
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From: ernest | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:15:46 AM | Message Detail
this match is on weekend with no SFF so vote totals above 110k anyone?
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:15:57 AM | Message Detail
Oh, crap. I was afraid that update was coming. Looks like the board vote actually *favored* Snake. >_<
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:16:06 AM | Message Detail
Wahoo! Nearlly 100 gain.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Mistress Snake
From: T4libKw4li | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:16:27 AM | Message Detail
Wow, Mario just raped Snake..Snake down to 43.88%
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:16:46 AM | Message Detail
Ouch. >_<
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:17:40 AM | Message Detail
Looks like the board vote actually *favored* Snake. >_<

Actually, and correct me if I was wrong, but the board vote favored Mario. He was never trailing, if I recall.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:17:47 AM | Message Detail
Samus > Snake should be in the adjusteds no matter what, and I love Snake, you'd have to braindead to think otherwise. Hell I think Samus > Mario in the adjusteds too, but that won't be happening. I mean, I'd take Samus > Seph still, but I'd have to think about it for a long time with Mario.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:18:06 AM | Message Detail
Relative to the actual general voting trends, I mean.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:18:39 AM | Message Detail
Given that it'll be impossible to adjust the stats, my vote is to not even bother trying.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: T4libKw4li | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:19:15 AM | Message Detail
Would the SFF Adjusted X Stats put Samus over Snake?

There was SFF in Samus/Ganon and Samus/Mario..

What do we have to judge Samus' strength?

Frog? =/.
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:19:20 AM | Message Detail
We could always do ranges for the stats, you know, like some have suggested...
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:20:05 AM | Message Detail
We'll have a new factor because of this contest: The Zebes Division factor.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:20:12 AM | Message Detail
You could use Ganondorf.. that match went exactly as planned according to the stats.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: T4libKw4li | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:20:45 AM | Message Detail
Snake > Samus

Snake at 44.19%
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From: ernest | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:21:07 AM | Message Detail
the stats are now almost impossible to be accurate after this contest. CjayC did his best to try and screw them up and he succeeded
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: T4libKw4li | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:21:22 AM | Message Detail
There was significant SFF in Samus/Ganon EC
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From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:23:03 AM | Message Detail
We could always do ranges for the stats, you know, like some have suggested...

The range is implyed. We'll never get everyone to agree on one range so just make up one that reflects how accurate you feel the stats are.
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:23:04 AM | Message Detail
Since when?

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:23:22 AM | Message Detail
I really hope Snake can stay over 40% on this match...
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Chinballz | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:23:41 AM | Message Detail
*Master Shake voice*

What are these "X-stats" you speak of?
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One guru to rule them all. One guru to find them. One guru to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them.
From: T4libKw4li | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:25:50 AM | Message Detail
Only +16 for Mario =/

Snake at 44.8%
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:26:14 AM | Message Detail
I think ranges would just complicate things further. For someone like Samus, you would either have to give her a ridiculous range or note that she's TEH SUCK when going up against Mario. I say we go the same route as last year: two sets of stats. Leave one completely alone, and implement some ancient numbers in the other.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:26:35 AM | Message Detail
I never doubted for a second that snake would break 40%. Non-SFF matches in later rounds tend to be far closer than they should be, if for nothing else than mass vote rallying on both sides and an increase of interest. And even Link/Mario was close, relatively.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:26:42 AM | Message Detail
That was a GREAT update for Snake.

Man, if Snake could win an update, it would make my night. Almost would make me happy enough to ignore the smackdown he'd get come daylight...
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: ernest | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:27:55 AM | Message Detail
if anything a lot has changed over the last year.
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: T4libKw4li | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:27:59 AM | Message Detail
The Unadjusted 2k4 served better than the Adjusted 2k4 except for Ganon and Bowser obv..
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:28:15 AM | Message Detail
I never doubted for a second that snake would break 40%. Non-SFF matches in later rounds tend to be far closer than they should be, if for nothing else than mass vote rallying on both sides and an increase of interest. And even Link/Mario was close, relatively.

Is that why you didn't trust Samus > Mario in 2k4, even before SFF?
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:28:22 AM | Message Detail
Leave one completely alone, and implement some ancient numbers in the other.

The problem is that if you do that, Samus will be stronger than Mario in the stats if Mario doesn't win the contest. You'd have to go all the way back and give Samus her WDF 2002 value to make the stats "look right".

**** making them "look right". Unless you have something drastic like Link/Ganon or Mega/Yoshi, I vote to leave them as is.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:30:02 AM | Message Detail
I....agree with Ulti =/.
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"Mace isn't even better than Dooku" ~ LightSnake
"Obi-Wan is stronger than Mace" ~ DarthLampe
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:30:20 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and in case anyone doubted, Mario is going to win. remember, I called it :)
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:30:57 AM | Message Detail
Crono will beat Mario in the finals. =p
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/17/2005 12:31:02 AM | Message Detail
I don't have any problem with completely unadjusted stats. Seeing Snake in the top 5 would be mighty fine, after all. Of course, there will be people who want things adjusted, and I'm guessing at least a few of them are the ones who actually put the stats together. =P

Regardless, it's not like the X-Stats will be regarded with the same amount of seriousness from now on, so whatev.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
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