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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 251
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/15/2005 10:14:24 PM | Message Detail
Solid's done well for himself this year, too.

Well obviously I'm comparing to previous cracks Solid's taken at Mega Man. This year he'd probably do at least as well as 2k3.
---
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: transience | Posted: 9/15/2005 10:17:31 PM | Message Detail
damn, I'm goin' against consensus today, it seems like. I even think Sonic'll win.

anyway, I'm off to bed. here's to hopin' MM's got a huge lead when I wake up.
---
.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/15/2005 10:28:30 PM | Message Detail
I do believe the Blue Blur is going to pull this one off, myself.

---
“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 10:31:39 PM | Message Detail
I'm still seriously torn on who to vote for. =/
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/15/2005 10:38:41 PM | Message Detail
If Mega Man's your favorite character, you can't abandon him. Especially if you think it might be close.

Well at least that's what I hold sacred... I know I'd never vote against Kirby... regardless of bracket, underdogness, or whatever. Heh.
---
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 10:47:26 PM | Message Detail
I've voted against Mega Man before, twice (Earthworm Jim and Conker, for a reason everybody ought to know: they're ****in' awesome, too). This isn't gonna be a blowout though, so, yeah...and Sonic's top-five for me too. You're right though; Mega's gotta get my vote.

I just home this match is dead-even all day long, and controversial too.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 10:55:21 PM | Message Detail
And Vincent finally pops Crono's 55.4 bubble...man, they've been hovering around that for a while.

Okay, people, three options!

1.) This is all the Advent Children leak working its magic, and/or possibilities like Squall performing better than usual against Vincent and thus underrating him.. This potentially means that Cloud's chances against Link got that much better and that Sephiroth is looking a lot better against Mario.

2.) This is all Crono dropping, and he is now sharing the bottom rung of the Noble Nine with Snake. This makes Mega Man/Sonic a lock for the finals.

3.) A combination of sorts, or just a fluke. I'm inclined to go with the former of these, but not the latter, as it is seemingly contradicted by MC.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:01:20 PM | Message Detail
I just home this match is dead-even all day long, and controversial too.

Not happening, they have opposite voting patterns.

The best you can hope for is MM trying to catch up to Sonic near the very end of the match.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:02:07 PM | Message Detail
If it's not contradicted by MC though, then it's contradicted by Face-CATS, DK, and Sam Fisher; before MC/Crono, it was looking like MC and DK were at their 2k3 levels, Fisher was constant from 2k4 (and 2k3 if you realize Magus is over-rated) and Face-CATS stayed the same from the Villain Contest.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:03:03 PM | Message Detail
Bowser's supposed to suck with the night vote every time, too. Heh, I can dream.....
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:05:32 PM | Message Detail
Okay, people, three options!

1.) This is all the Advent Children leak working its magic, and/or possibilities like Squall performing better than usual against Vincent and thus underrating him.. This potentially means that Cloud's chances against Link got that much better and that Sephiroth is looking a lot better against Mario.


I'm more inclined on this one, notice that FF VII is back on the top 10 FAQ list recently, about 2 days ago.

While AC itself managed to get 2nd place in top 10 most wanted FAQ list before being removed for not being released yet.

It's not a game, but it breathes new life to FF VII as a whole.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:07:01 PM | Message Detail
Best case scenario:

They split the board vote.
Mega Man barely wins the night vote.
Sonic comes back and builds a decent lead with the morning vote.
They go 50/50 during the day.
With around 6 hours left, Mega Man starts a slow comeback.
...which intensifies with around half an hour left, much like Jill Valentine last year.
...and MM ends up falling short by about ten votes.

Other possible outcomes:

Mega Man builds a good lead during the night, and Sonic can only manage to win a few updates during the morning.

OR

They go 50/50 during the night and Sonic pulls away in the morning, like he did against Ryu except not by nearly as much.
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:11:37 PM | Message Detail
I'm very inclined to believe that Advent Children has had a pretty solid effect on Vincent's performance.

---
“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:35:16 PM | Message Detail
Crono with 30.01%, and I would think Dante is the only character who takes away a notable amount of Crono's percentage there.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:50:33 PM | Message Detail
tnote: I think they're referring to booting Vlado and Inviso from the Crew, due to them being.... biased, to say the least.

From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 10:19:49 PM | Message Detail | #324
Why did Ulti's analysis consist of bashing the characters for two paragraphs and then giving an arbitrary percentage? o_O


I was bashing the companies, thank you very much. I said I liked the characters, though for whoever mentioned SA2:B, I haven't played it yet.

As for those who dare bring up Mario spinoffs in the same sentence as Sonic and Mega Man, need I remind you of where Super Smash Brothers got its name from? Take a close look at the title of the original Mario game, Super Mario Brothers. Gee, only one word was replaced come SSB time. Mario is in charge of the single best spinoff series ever made, so he earns a lifetime pardon from such degradation.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:52:53 PM | Message Detail
I do think that the AC leak has something to do with today, actually. I still don't think Cloud has a prayer, though.

And yay for FF7 back in the top ten!

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:57:08 PM | Message Detail
Oh, I dunno, I think Squall and Vincent might also take off a notable amount of Crono's %. And then all of the other characters combined might be able to muster something. (She's Starcraft, she'll kill everything! Terra is the star of FF6, a more popular game than CT! Knuckles is an icon! Who doesn't like Magus more than Crono? And Geno...)

Crono with about a quarter.
---
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:58:59 PM | Message Detail
Terra is the star of FF6

The same Terra who had 11.67% of the brackets against Dante, too.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:00:23 AM | Message Detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 30.77% 4
Mega Man 69.23% 9
TOTAL VOTES 13

Crono had 31.17% of the brackets supporting him to get to the Final Four.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:01:29 AM | Message Detail
Let's get it on!!!!
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:01:53 AM | Message Detail
I'm very inclined to believe that Advent Children has had a pretty solid effect on Vincent's performance.

Could be, but, I doubt it - or at least significantly. It's still not released here, and I know the leak or whatever (plus there's a good sign for it with ff7 moving up on the faqs), but I would have expected Squall to get around 56-57 maybe? So then Vincent is stronger than Squall, comes from FF7, add in the mix of old Square < New Square, and Vincent's performance today doesn't neet to be because of Advent Children. I think the Vincent supporters would rather that, no?, because then Vincent only has up to go next year.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:02:03 AM | Message Detail
*wishes* Please don't be anticlimactic, please don't be anticlimactic...
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:04:05 AM | Message Detail
This match has the potential to be insane. Mega will likely lead early, but if Sonic catches the day vote, we're off to the ****ing races, folks.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:04:50 AM | Message Detail
Keep it up, Bomber.
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:05:17 AM | Message Detail
Sonic's undoubtedly going to do some day vote owning and he tends to absolutely suck with the night vote, while Mega Man is generally quite good with it.

If Sonic can keep it pretty close this early, I think he'll have it come morning. We'll have to see, but it should end pretty close either way.

---
“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:06:03 AM | Message Detail
We'll just have to see how much of that was the board and how much of that was the night next update...
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:06:07 AM | Message Detail
After all that struggling to fight off Mega's bracket vote surge and get it within ten, Mega just slapped the piss out of him. Good grief.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:07:02 AM | Message Detail
I think it's already over. Megaman wins.
---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:07:15 AM | Message Detail
MM has pretty mcuh got this locked up.
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:07:18 AM | Message Detail
and that was a good point about ssb being essentially a spin-off, even if it feels icky to think of it that way.
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:07:36 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
106----2--------100.0000000
105----7--------100.0000000
104----3--------100.0000000
103----9--------77.7777778
102----16-------100.0000000
101----41-------92.6829268
100----44-------95.4545455
99-----68-------97.0588235
98-----101------95.0495050
97-----115------87.8260870
96-----144------90.2777778
95-----194------88.1443299
94-----220------83.6363636
93-----331------87.0090634
92-----367------80.6539510
91-----415------81.9277108
90-----453------77.0419426
89-----529------72.5897921
88-----541------68.5767098
87-----504------64.8809524
86-----580------60.0000000
85-----591------58.8832487
84-----601------53.5773710
83-----635------53.2283465
82-----658------49.0881459
81-----646------47.8328173
80-----685------46.8613139
79-----732------41.8032787
78-----739------40.5953992
77-----742------40.4312668
76-----718------39.6935933
75-----704------34.0909091
74-----745------34.6308725
73-----708------33.8983051
72-----712------30.6179775
71-----756------29.7619048
70-----728------24.8626374
69-----740------26.0810811
68-----705------25.6737589
67-----706------24.9291785
66-----725------24.1379310
65-----696------22.8448276
64-----675------20.8888889
63-----701------16.4051355
62-----643------19.1290824
61-----625------17.1200000
60-----609------18.8834154
59-----650------14.3076923
58-----647------11.9010819
57-----566------14.4876325
56-----530------12.6415094
55-----520------12.3076923
54-----580------13.1034483
53-----491------9.5723014
52-----481------9.1476091
51-----483------7.4534161
50-----477------9.0146751
49-----425------9.4117647
48-----428------7.9439252
47-----425------9.6470588
46-----370------9.1891892
45-----307------8.4690554
44-----366------6.0109290
43-----317------5.9936909
42-----281------5.6939502
41-----271------4.7970480
40-----257------4.2801556
39-----248------4.8387097
38-----212------3.3018868
37-----222------5.4054054
36-----189------5.8201058
35-----183------6.0109290
34-----155------3.2258065
33-----121------4.9586777
32-----143------4.1958042
31-----92-------4.3478261
30-----89-------3.3707865
29-----66-------3.0303030
28-----63-------1.5873016
27-----57-------3.5087719
26-----48-------2.0833333

Everybody with a score of 25 or less got the match wrong.

Good job by the top tiers. The -6s, -7s, -8s and -10s went perfect. The -9s were one person off from doing the same. The next few tiers have prediction percentages in the mid 90s than as usual it decreases as you go down the list.

Only 3 people fell off the Top 50 today. AngelxWings, big_ritt and a person who had VV taking it all Vanity_Kills.
---
''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:08:10 AM | Message Detail
Suspiciously parallel to Solid Snake levels of performance...? Very unexpected... heheh.

Eh, I'll wait to gloat until Mega Man stablizes up here.
---
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Eternal Neo | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:08:37 AM | Message Detail
It's over folks. Clearly Sonic cannot make up 50 votes in almost 24 hours. In fact, I bet the day vote is just going to kill him...

>_<
---
-Hot Johnny Depp
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:08:52 AM | Message Detail
MM is a hell of a lot better in the day than Snake.
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:08:58 AM | Message Detail
How could someone say that? Are you people just completely forgetting that Sonic absolutely sucks at night while Mega Man is generally quite good with it?

---
“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:09:05 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man literally increased the lead from 9 to 50 in seconds. Sonic needs to recover if he wants to make a game of this.

And if Mega winds up winning this 55-45, is it safe to think of him as Nintendo instead of Capcom in these things?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:10:38 AM | Message Detail
HUGE GAIN FROM MEGAMAN!

GG Sonic.
---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:10:40 AM | Message Detail
Nice gain by Mega Man. He's looking very solid.
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Chinballz | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:11:19 AM | Message Detail
Exactly a 100 vote lead.
---
One guru to rule them all. One guru to find them. One guru to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:11:48 AM | Message Detail
Lead of 100. That's too much ground, and I doubt Sonic can make it up even with the day.

*kicks anti-climactic match*

Oh, well, this basically means my bracket is safe until Mario owns all in the finals.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:12:01 AM | Message Detail
Jeez, a lead of 100 in ten minutes. Sonic had better start doing something before this gets out of hand, here...

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:12:39 AM | Message Detail
. . .

I have never seen something more absurd than this right here. You people are out of your minds.

---
“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: greatone10 | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:12:51 AM | Message Detail
Meh, I had a feeling this would be anti-climatic.
---
BertTheOne | Can't hurt this Bert
Nominate Jay Solano & Ifnkovhgroghprm for SC2K6!
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:13:27 AM | Message Detail
I don't see why we have to think that Mega Man boosted at all. Sonic = Solid Snake has pretty much been backed up by the "lol X-Stats" all this time and it seems pretty sensible to me.

Mega/Solid Snake 2k4 at 10 minutes: 54.45% / 45.55%
Sonic/Mega 2k5 at 10 minutes: 44.53% / 55.47%
---
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:13:38 AM | Message Detail
It's just that we know how bad Sonic is with the night, and we know how good Mega Man is with it. The lead will potentially be HUGE if this keeps up, and Sonic doesn't have enough of an edge with the day to stop that.
---
For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:13:47 AM | Message Detail
Well, it's not like Sonic will just start to 60/40 him during the day, especially if Mega Man does have an aura of "Nintendoness" attached to him.
---
SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:14:53 AM | Message Detail
Considering Mega Man was the big bracket favorite on our board (and probably of those still contending in the contest; I haven't seen Sonic be represented in the Top Fifty in forever), I'm thinkin' nothing of this yet. Sonic's still got a day-vote ahead of him, ya know, and I don't think Mega Man's good with the second night vote either (correct me if I'm wrong).
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:14:59 AM | Message Detail
Sonic will clearly take the day vote. It is not as though Mega Man is going to mass a 3000 vote lead tonight.

---
“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:15:16 AM | Message Detail
It's not like Mega Man exactly sucks with the day vote either, he's just marginally better at night, really.
---
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/16/2005 12:15:36 AM | Message Detail
I call SFF!
---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
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