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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 251
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:24:56 PM | Message Detail
Snake maybe could break 45%, but I really doubt it.
From: transience | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:24:58 PM | Message Detail
oh, it'll help Cloud. I'm just saying that, considering the circumstances, Vincent has a lot more to gain and his match is happening immediately after the AC leak.
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:25:52 PM | Message Detail
I'd like to see a double elimination tourney, if only so we could see how transitive the stats really are. Whenever they fail in subsequent years, people always blame it on linearity because there's no way to disprove their transitivity...I'd like us to actually have a definitive answer on that.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Yesmar | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:30:09 PM | Message Detail
Can we PLEASE not talk about Advent Children in the stats topic?

Please.
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"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle
From: metroid composite | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:30:36 PM | Message Detail
I'd actually kind of like to see a double-elimination tournment next year.

Single-elimination is used in most broadcast sports for the simple reason that it's more exciting to watch, and easier to understand. Things like double elimination are used when you want to be fair to the competitors. Since the competitors are inanimate figments of the imagination, and the spectators are real, this simply doesn't seem like the way to go.
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Cats land on their feet. Toast lands peanut butter side down. A cat with toast strapped to its back will hover above the ground in a state of quantum indecision
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:46:34 PM | Message Detail
The Snake Will Get Atleast 45% on Mario List:

1)Kyle Bowen
2)Tequilla Gundam
3)ExquisiteSamurai
4)
5)
6)

I think Snake will be able to break 45% on Mario come next round.

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:47:59 PM | Message Detail
The Snake Will Get Atleast 45% on Mario List:

1)Kyle Bowen
2)Tequilla Gundam
3)ExquisiteSamurai
4)Super Luigi
5)
6)

I believe Snake can get 45%.
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:54:41 PM | Message Detail
Damn...I really want to sign that list, since I think that Snake's up to 38% on BL, but I can't, since I think Mario's up to 43%. Oh well, at least we'll get to see Snake at #2 in the main bracket.

And on the subject of AC, there's no way Sephiroth gets a boost from it. Relative to his performance in FFVII, he was pretty crappy in AC.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:58:03 PM | Message Detail
Bah, Sephiroth was a

*KINGDOM HEARTS SPOILERS*












Freaking optional boss in Kingdom Hearts. Now, granted, he was a great fight and the toughest in the game, but the fact that one small appearance in that game skyrocketed him to a statistical dead heat with Link, I have a hard time believing that he won't benefit from AC if Vincent did.

By the way, if this performance is all Vincent and Cloud/Sephiroth get as much or more of a boost, then Mario's chances got that much dimmer, and Link/Cloud just got interesting again.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:02:27 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: transience | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:03:21 PM | Message Detail
I could not agree more. Seph is awful.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:10:21 PM | Message Detail
Dude, AC spoilers.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:12:42 PM | Message Detail
Votals

At 15:10:00:
Snake vs. Bowser: 68642
Mario vs. Samus: 65225
Crono vs. Vincent: 64506

It's behind Mario vs. Samus now.. Not looking too good.

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:18:59 PM | Message Detail
The Snake Will Get Atleast 45% on Mario List:

1)Kyle Bowen
2)Tequilla Gundam
3)ExquisiteSamurai
4)Super Luigi
5)
6)
7)

How can you not give the American Hero 45% on Mario.
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From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:19:00 PM | Message Detail
The Snake Will Get Atleast 45% on Mario List:

1)Kyle Bowen
2)Tequilla Gundam
3)ExquisiteSamurai
4)Super Luigi
5)
6)
7)

How can you not give the American Hero 45% on Mario.
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From: swirldude | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:20:07 PM | Message Detail
Just a reminder, SMB3 vs Metal Gear predicts Snake to get completely pwned in the Final Four.
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So, if someone says "Who are The Patriots?" people will be able to answer "Oakland"? ~paperwarrior
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:20:50 PM | Message Detail
You gotta quit double posting, man. And I'm probably the biggest example of a Snake fanboy you'll ever find, but I'll consider it a moral victory if he manages breaking 40%, and 43% is about as high as my expectations will allow.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: transience | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:21:02 PM | Message Detail
ha. no comment.

Mario will wreck Snake. consider it booked and filed.
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:36:31 PM | Message Detail
Nice update for Vincent right there.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:37:59 PM | Message Detail
Heh.. Just when I thought to myself that I wanted Vincent to win an update, he goes and win one..

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:40:46 PM | Message Detail
Actually, I just thought of why Vincent is doing so well in this match. It's not Crono dropping. And it's not Advent Children.

Once again, the 'Dante must always be relatively equal to Kirby' factor prevails.

Kirby's performance on Bowser sets him as a near-elite. So Dante, obviously, had to up the ante. Getting 47% on Vincent meant that Vincent had to really put up where it counted, and he's doing this here.

Mark my words, Crono will do great from here on out--just enough to make Dante and Kirby relative equals once more.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:40:55 PM | Message Detail
In AC he looks like a chick and fights like a *****, not to mention having the worst dialogue in the movie, which is quite an accomplishment for AC.

That couldn't be farther from the truth, but okay.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:42:50 PM | Message Detail
and then Crono jumps back with a good update

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:45:57 PM | Message Detail
That couldn't be farther from the truth, but okay.

Okay then, who do you think has the worst dialogue in the movie?

...Cait Sith doesn't count. >_>
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:48:34 PM | Message Detail
Okay then, who do you think has the worst dialogue in the movie?

I actually didn't mind Cait Sith, as all of his lines made me somewhat smile--Calm down, princess! But it would probably be Loz, he lines were just... blah. As was his character--Yazoo wasn't much different. Without spoiling anything, I felt Sephiroth had very fitting dialogue and managed to act the way he had before. The problem with that is that he was trying to do something that was extremely ineffective.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:49:55 PM | Message Detail
Everyone but Cloud, Reno, Sephiroth, and Kadaj.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:54:19 PM | Message Detail
And I'm probably the biggest example of a Snake fanboy you'll ever find

Futuresuperstar.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: transience | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:01:32 PM | Message Detail
KH ain't much of a fanboy. he actually uses logic.

thank goodness, too.
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:04:44 PM | Message Detail
Meh, futuresuperstar loves his MGS, but he's more of a Raiden man than a Snake one. MWIS loves his Snake as well, but he places The Boss a wee bit higher than him. For me, it's all Solid Snake, all the time. <_<
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:06:04 PM | Message Detail
Tsk, tsk, tsk. Fighting over such mediocre character. =p

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: transience | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:10:16 PM | Message Detail
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/15/2005 7:06:04 PM | Message Detail
Tsk, tsk, tsk. Fighting over such mediocre character. =p


yeah, this made me laugh.

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From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:20:40 PM | Message Detail
FACT OR FICTION: Had AC been released proper in the States, Vincent would be winning.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:22:16 PM | Message Detail
Fact
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From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:22:43 PM | Message Detail
And Crono might be hitting 54% not to long from now.

I consider myself a big Solid Snake fanboy! Im also a Big Boss fan also.
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:23:37 PM | Message Detail
Fiction. If AC was already out in the states, the most I could see Vincent having is 48.
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Vote for Mario, this year's contest champion!
Mega Man > Sonic
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:24:30 PM | Message Detail
Eh, Fiction. Though Vincent would be going on more of a tear right now (he's going on a big one now for percentage, jeez), and I'd start considering Cloud to be a REALLY serious threat to Link even with the Nintendo boost. Hell, maybe even the favorite.

Tsk, tsk, tsk. Fighting over such mediocre character. =p

I didn't realize we were talking about Vincent again. = P
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:25:14 PM | Message Detail
I consider myself a big Solid Snake fanboy! Im also a Big Boss fan also.

No way! What next, Pangaea being ripped apart by Jesusauruses?
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:25:21 PM | Message Detail
Fiction I don't think it would help him to any visible extent. Anyone whos going to vote for him is more than likely already a FFVII, and therefore doesn't need anymore reason to vote for him.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:27:04 PM | Message Detail
That's what we all said prior to 2003.

Needless to say, we got served the entire humble pie factory.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:28:17 PM | Message Detail
Hey, I had Cloud beating Link in 2003.

AND THEN I HAD SEPHIROTH BEATING CLOUD DAMN YOU X-STATS
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:30:48 PM | Message Detail
WDF, Super Mario Sunshine release date, yadda yadda yadda.

Of course, we had no idea back then, we only really figured out the former after it was all said and done last year, and for the latter we had to wait until Tails/Dante.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:30:48 PM | Message Detail
After I saw what Cloud did to Bowser, I was a believe of Cloud beating Link. Most of the people here were like "omgs No WaYZ ClouD winZ!@ LiNk Won TEh first TimE! HE's unstoppable!!"
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:31:08 PM | Message Detail
believer*
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:32:13 PM | Message Detail
Fact or Fiction:
Vincent will be an elite (noble niner) next summer contest.

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:32:35 PM | Message Detail
Bowser won a 4-pack comprised of entirely newcomers, so Link HAD to have the benefit of the doubt. But when Sonic got owned, and by that I mean they're still collecting hedgehog limbs, that was when the alarm rang for all of us.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:33:29 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and I said last year? I meant 2003.

Vincent will never be a Noble Niner. He can, though, be an elite if he feels like it.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:35:59 PM | Message Detail
I would take Zero over Vincent.

Yeah, I said it =/.
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"Mace isn't even better than Dooku" ~ LightSnake
"Obi-Wan is stronger than Mace" ~ DarthLampe
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:37:59 PM | Message Detail
I would probably take Zero over Vincent, too, actually. This is likely Crono's death warrant against Mario if he makes it there, as if Mario/Zero, Mario/Samus, and Crono/MC weren't enough.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:39:04 PM | Message Detail
I think this match would be exceptionally close right had Advent Children been released in America.

Fiction I don't think it would help him to any visible extent. Anyone whos going to vote for him is more than likely already a FFVII, and therefore doesn't need anymore reason to vote for him.

That's ridiculous, to be quite honest. While I love him from FFVII alone, there are many people who don't for the simple fact that he had little screentime, didn't say much, and is often accused of "not doing anything." Nearly everyone I have seen has enjoyed Vincent far more in Advent Children than they did in Final Fantasy VII. Claiming he wouldn't get a noticeable boost is just absurd.

Oh, and a Crono/Vincent match next year would result in Vincent winning without trouble. You can count on that one.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/15/2005 4:43:45 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and a Crono/Vincent match next year would result in Vincent winning without trouble. You can count on that one.

I dunno about that although I love it if that were to happen.

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
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