I think that mabye we are overrating Mario a bit.

His win over Zero seems impressive, but its really not if you think about it.

Zeros win over Ryu was very unimpressive for the stature we expect Zero to be at.

also, Zero has a knack for preforming well against opponents, but he doesnt have a great record.

His wins over Tommy and Scorpion are also unimpressive.

As for Samus and her destruction, its hard to say the SFFing wasnt a huge factor here.

Mario may not be as inflated as we think he is.

KB

I'm not going to address most of that Sonic/Mega Man diatribe because it didn't make that much sense to begin with, but the match is basically Mega's to lose at this point if his adjusted value is correct. Sonic has to prove that he's risen to that level, and while Diablo made me a believer once, seeing some of the other Villains Contest participants fall short of expectations gives me much doubt.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

We'll see, Slow, we'll see.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Zero also confused me this year, but I think it's more likely he's at his adjusted level. Ryu Hayabusa actually got a recognizable and awesome picture for once, so that would explain that underperformance...and him being at his adjusted level makes Lloyd > Mithos, so that's all good. Of course, if he's at his adjusted level and assuming no SFF (which there shouldn't be for Zero as opposed to Mega Man), then Mario is the favorite against Sephiroth. <_<
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

I dunno, 35% on BL even seems below that. Mario's been stuck in the 37-38% area FOREVER before this year, so that'd put Crono at, what, 36%?

If this turns out to be true, then Crono is weaker than ever. But that's just pure speculation, although seeing two matches go in that general direction is not good.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

Taking 2000 votes out of Crono's total (I think it was 2000, anyway) puts him at 36.35% in 2k2.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

But we both know that the stats really work in a range, not in absolutes. Soem of those characters look like they are within their own range and it looks like it lines up right, but it doesn't mean they wont/cant hit higher with things still being correct. I disagree wth those that say Squall is where he should be, and I think Crono will be hitting higher than that 35~ mark.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Crono had pretty good bracket support last year and it suddenly became disastrous this year (FYI, as many brackets had him in the Elite 8 last year than this year, despite having to go through Mario!). Maybe it's a sign... still, two solid boosts in a row followed by a massive drop? Weird.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

oh god is this site turning to more mainstream characters now? wait no CJ lost so is this contest just screwing us up ?
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

Oh, great, now Crono's falling again as the after-school vote arrives. Who called it?! Certainly not me, no sir... >_<
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

Yeah, the perception of the contest has gone back to being like 2k2 where the bracket makers expect Mario to be an invincible machine. We know it's not true, though he looks to be winning until he reaches Seph, but the casuals seem to expect godliness out of him.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

anyway who thinks mario's prediction percentage is god awfully high
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

Advent Children is working its magic, yo.


Honestly, I'm so damn happy by Vincent's performance here. I expected him to clear 40% without trouble--although my prediction was something around 43% as opposed to 44%, close enough, I suppose. But yeah, while Crono may have dropped, I see this more as Vincent than anything.

Outside of Cloud, Vincent was among one of the coolest and important figures in the storyline. He and Tifa were among the most important non-Cloud party members.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

well, I think with Clinkeroth out of the way, it makes sense to think of Mario as an invincible machine. no one else has had his level of success, and only Crono has proven that he can go toe to toe with him.
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.

What's "yo" in Japanese, anyway?
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

Ahem ahem, Samus had more success in 2004 than Mario's had in his entire contest career minus his match with Cloud.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

Beats me. All I know is that the Japanese word for "drifting" sounds really cool.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

yo is a letter of the japanese alphabet i should know i'm half jap and can speak it in basic format
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

Before 2005 happened, I mean.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

A letter? Here I thought it was a decasyllabic unpronounceable horror.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

by "success", I meant he's been to the final. he's also beaten Cloud. I'm talking from the perspective of a casual bracketmaker, not from someone who's paid close attention.
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.

I just used a bit of math for fun a little bit and it looks like CATS through MC, and then CATS through the villain contest..

Bowser is expected to give Crono a close match.

Well, that doesn't mean "yo" in Japanese is "yo" in English.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Oi
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

yep yo is from ya-yu-yo like la-li-lu-le-lo and a-i-u-e-o they all come in sets
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

You mean, that demonic scream Aryll lets out at the beginning of Wind Waker is actually "Yo"? And HM doesn't feel dirty?
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

Next year, considering Bowser could (supposedly) give Crono a close match right now and LoZ:TP/ a new generation of consoles will be released by the next contest, I still doubt there'd be many of us who'd have the balls to take Ganon over Crono.

Just an assumption though, and we know what assuming can do.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

There's no direct translation for "yo", obviously because it's slang. Usually, as seen in many anime, "Oi" is said as a sort of "hey" which is pretty much how "yo" is used most of the time. Oi isn't really a Japanese word, either, so it really works well as "yo", though on occasion they may say "yo" (though that's in anime as well, who knows what actual Japanese people may say). Officially "hey" is "omaesan", but that's a lot to say when you want someone's attention.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Well Next year a lot of things could be different.

The KH characters will likely get a boost, and perhap the ladder FF characters as well with FF12 renewing interest in the series, to go along with any Nintendo news.

AS well as AC being released in the states, and DoC ect.



KB

I think the reason that the x-stats are so off is simply because Clinkeroth is out of the picture. Those three are so dominant, that they'll smash in anybody that challenges them. Anything less than 45% vs them is insignificant.
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"I ish the Weedle...who shall evolve to Beedrill, and kick Butterfree's arse!"

Yeah, we should see another big shakeup next year, along with the return of "lol xstats" from people that don't know how to use them.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I'd kill to see a division something likie this next year, if Crono really did take the massive fall that this suggests. If he didn't, feel free to replace Crono with Snake, Sonic, or Mega Man.

1) Crono
8) [fodder]

4) Auron
5) Squall

3) Ganondorf
6) Aeris

2) Bowser
7) [fodder]
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"I call upon the Red Giant, the Ruler of Hellfire! Come! Efreet!" ~ Sheena Fujibayashi
*is Tediz247*

There isn't one particular word that means "Yo" in Japanese and more than likely, is a product of the translation into English more than anything else--you can catch that he says "zotto" at the end of every one of his sentences, sometimes leaving it off, but that doesn't mean "Yo."

I'm not sure how the other translations hold up to this particular one that is been seen by everyone, but when Reno--who kicks more ass than just about anyone--finds it necessary to say it, it must be something good. Gotta emulate greatness, yo.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

Snake will get 45% on Mario.

Boot it.


KB

Yeah, we should see another big shakeup next year, along with the return of "lol xstats" from people that don't know how to use them.

<3 <3 <3

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

1) Crono
8) [fodder]

4) Auron
5) Squall

3) Ganondorf
6) Aeris

2) Bowser
7) [fodder]

I want to see round robins.


Ganon vs. Bowser.

Squall vs. Auron.

Winner of match 1 vs. Loser of match two

Loser of match 1 vs. winner of match two

winners vs. winners.

Losers vs. losers.


KB

http://penny-arcade.com/view.php?date=2005-09-14&res=l

I found that to be quite funny. I think it kicks all sorts of ass that this leak has proven to be pretty damn big everywhere.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

FF7 being #4 in the faqs pretty much proves that the AC leak is significant. it's probably helping Vincent today more than it will Cloud, simply because Cloud's match is a week after the leak while Vincent's is only a couple of days after. plus, Cloud doesn't exactly need exposure while Vincent does.
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.

Vincent has the weirdest voting patterns. The only time he seems to be week is in the first 15 minutes, and the only time he seems to be strong is the last hour or so. He's pretty much gone even during the rest of the time with Dante, Squall, and Crono, three characters that usually have different patterns.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Outside of Cloud, Vincent was among one of the coolest and important figures in the storyline. He and Tifa were among the most important non-Cloud party members.

Cait Sith was more important than Vincent to the storyline. As was Aeris (Holy and all that).
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Cats land on their feet. Toast lands peanut butter side down. A cat with toast strapped to its back will hover above the ground in a state of quantum indecision

mc, I do think he's talking about AC
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I'm pretty sure he means in Advent Children. Though I would have put Aeris on Tifa/Vincent's level or so for importance in that movie. = /
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.

That was a BIG drop by Crono.

Poor guy....proves the CT sprite pic theory wrong, has a match with a character who just had a decent movie and will lose to Sonic or Megaman.

T_T

If samus fell some, which could of happened, and mario risen, then the match that occured was expected. Samus may have fallen to sk2 sephiroth lvl. Mario is now at 2k4 sephiroth lvl. Sephiroth vs mario I think could be a 49/50 match now. After all the time sephiroth beat mario by 62, sephiroth was the same lvl as link. He has decreased maybe 5% since then. Since he got 4% less in 2k4 on cloud then 2k3.
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- - -

plus, Cloud doesn't exactly need exposure while Vincent does.

If anyone is going to benefit from that movie it will be Cloud. He was the singular focus and was kicking ass all the way through it. I have no doubts it will also help him, it'd be foolish to assume it did for Vincent and won't for Cloud.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

well, I think with Clinkeroth out of the way, it makes sense to think of Mario as an invincible machine. no one else has had his level of success, and only Crono has proven that he can go toe to toe with him.

Exactly. And Mario did beat Samus, so I'm always hesitant to mock the casuals when they're getting matches right.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

The Snake Will Get Atleast 45% on Mario List:

1)Kyle Bowen
2)Tequilla Gundam
3)
4)
5)
6)

Feel free to join =/.
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The Snake Will Get Atleast 45% on Mario List:

1)Kyle Bowen
2)Tequilla Gundam
3)
4)
5)
6)

Feel free to join =/.
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Though I would have put Aeris on Tifa/Vincent's level or so for importance in that movie. = /

Her importance was actually higher than those two, but I hadn't included her in that bit. I was referring to the group concerning Tifa, Vincent, Yuffie, Barret, Cid, Red XIII, and Cait Sith.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

I'd actually kind of like to see a double-elimination tournment next year. It would have to only have 32 characters in order to finish in a reasonable amount of time (unless they did more than one match per day). It would give us a lot of interesting and hard to predict matches, especially in the losers bracket. It was also give us good reads on characters' strengths if they get SFF'd.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener