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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 251
From: transience | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:40:43 AM | Message Detail
well, my opinion isn't that AC will change people's votes, but will instead draw people to gamefaqs who normally wouldn't vote. it would make sense that after seeing it, an old fan would want to replay ff7.
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From: ernest | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:41:16 AM | Message Detail
i hope FF7:AC is making vincent's power explode because otherwise my cloud>link pick is looking too shaky. and if square was to introduce magus/crono in say KHIII if they ever made one then i could see them becoming very strong.
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Samurai7 | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:43:04 AM | Message Detail
Everyone is so quick to dismiss Vincent>Tifa?
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:45:40 AM | Message Detail
Marios pretty much a lock at this point to win the finals if he can beat Crono and this is a year where Nintendo is up. If Mario beats Crono, the chances of Cloud beating Link are not good if he didn't get an AC increase. Link might not have raised a lot, but Nintendo for the most part has gotten a boost. I dont see it abandoning Link.

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:47:08 AM | Message Detail
"Everyone is so quick to dismiss Vincent>Tifa?"


The problem is Vincents match with Squall doesn't make sense compared to this one.

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:49:02 AM | Message Detail
If Shadow has thought us anything it's that Sega eats up Nintendo for breakfast.

And since it looks like Mageman = Nintendo.

Sonic for the doubling!

Honestly, Mega has no chance.

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Joker-Why are Sonic fanboys the most annoying?
n00bAvenger-Because they have Smurf.Which is the worst fanboy you can have
From: ernest | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:49:36 AM | Message Detail
well if crono hasn't dropped is it safe to assume the leak of AC has created a boost for vincent?
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:49:58 AM | Message Detail
Vincent is doing a nice job with the last few updates.. I wonder if he can keep bringing down Crono's %.

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: transience | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:49:59 AM | Message Detail
are you gonna leave gamefaqs forever if he loses?

cause if so, it'd make the match more fun to watch.
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From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:52:11 AM | Message Detail
Sonic for the doubling!

Honestly, Mega has no chance.


... Please, I am going to laugh so hard when Mega Man does win.. Now I am not saying MM will win for sure since I know the match will be freaking close but making that kind of statement is rather ridiculous.

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:54:58 AM | Message Detail
You either have to accept one of the below theories. Both cannot be false.

A) Shadow is either Noble 9 or very close. He = Snake.

B) Sega have a shared base with Nintendo. Nintendo games SFF Sega games (Mario World.) and Sega characters SFF Nintendo characters (Shadow v Mario, Shadow v Wario.) Since Mega = Nintendo. Sonic should SFF him.

Something similar to Mario v Samus could happen. (60-40)

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Joker-Why are Sonic fanboys the most annoying?
n00bAvenger-Because they have Smurf.Which is the worst fanboy you can have
From: ernest | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:58:24 AM | Message Detail
alright halfway mark and vote totals are pathetic
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:01:06 PM | Message Detail
Votals

At: 12:00:00
Snake vs. Bowser: 47497
Crono vs. Vincent: 45222
Mario vs. Samus: 44668

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Samurai7 | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:08:36 PM | Message Detail
The problem is Vincents match with Squall doesn't make sense compared to this one.


Why not? I wouldn't be suprised if Squall ~= Areis and I believe Areis > Tifa.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:18:13 PM | Message Detail
I'm not going to deny the possibility of Advent Children's influence. We saw how big a friggin' tech demo was, so who's to say that FFVII fans aren't out getting Advent Children on the web? It's not like it's particularly difficult to acquire, and I'm sure a lot of them know it's out.

Heck, to be honest, I wouldn't have voted for Vincent prior to watching it. It just reminded me of what I love about FFVII.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:19:45 PM | Message Detail
Yeah. I'm one of those vote switches that came about because of Advent Children. There maybe more.

At any rate, the chances of swinging a vote from Crono to Vincent because of Advent Children should be easier than some other things. It's just... Crono after all >_<
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:19:54 PM | Message Detail
If I hear one more person bring up Knux/Magus my face is going to explode.

I'm not talking about this topic, rather than the board as a whole.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:23:27 PM | Message Detail
Prelim XS for Crono's quarter:
Crono 50.00
Vincent Valentine 44.10
Squall Leonhart 43.58
Dante 40.57
Knuckles the Echidna 40.27
Magus 39.57
Master Chief 38.71
Donkey Kong 38.10
Tommy Vercetti 29.15
Kefka 28.49
Sam Fisher 26.85
CATS 24.13
Zidane 23.28
Terra 23.13
Geno 21.93
Sarah Kerrigan 18.52

I find these to be rather odd. I might try to do least-squares to guess where Crono is now, but they've probably changed too much from last year to be of much use.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:24:50 PM | Message Detail
Hmmm...Knuckles would be expected to get 40% on Crono?

Snake = Crono > Mario!!!!!!
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:30:28 PM | Message Detail
A simple question that ought to give us an idea of what to expect in the Final Four: Who wins between Vincent and Tifa? And are they far apart at all?
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:32:31 PM | Message Detail
I don't think they'd be that far apart, and, in fact, I'd probably pick Tifa. It would be very strange to see Crono as being the weak link of the Noble Nine...
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:34:53 PM | Message Detail
I think Tifa would be stronger than Vincent. But we all know that Auron>Yuna and Rikku, so Vincent could be stronger than Tifa. I would however pick Tifa over Vincent.
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:34:55 PM | Message Detail
Well, the after school vote is about to start soon, and Crono is about .5% below Sonic's performance on Tifa. He's actually been doing pretty well with the day vote, which is surprising. It'll be interesting to see what he does after Master Chief owned him last time.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:37:37 PM | Message Detail
A simple question that ought to give us an idea of what to expect in the Final Four: Who wins between Vincent and Tifa? And are they far apart at all?

Well, that may be misleading. Because as you pointed out, FFVII AC may be having an influence here. The video wasn't "out" during Tifa's match, but it is now. So even if Vincent and Tifa are equivalent, Vincent could be doing much better than that would suggest.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:37:57 PM | Message Detail
Hmm...the least square are rather disheartening...Percentage here in on BL:
Crono 35.97%
Vincent Valentine 31.73%
Squall Leonhart 31.35%
Dante 29.19%
Knuckles the Echidna 28.97%
Magus 28.47%
Master Chief 27.85%
Donkey Kong 27.41%
Tommy Vercetti 20.97%
Kefka 20.50%
Sam Fisher 19.32%
CATS 17.36%
Zidane 16.75%
Terra 16.64%
Geno 15.78%
Sarah Kerrigan 13.32%

I don't know how accurate these will be, but to me Squall, Dante, Knux, Magus, MC, Fisher, and CATS are about where I'd expect them to be. Crono, Kefka, and Vercetti seem way too low and DK seems too high, but I guess there's no getting around that.

But take these lol xstats with a huge grain of salt, because it's very clear that a lot has changed since last year.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:39:14 PM | Message Detail
That looks pretty good to me. I like it.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:41:13 PM | Message Detail
With Crono dropping a couple, Magus could have dropped a couple too. Meaning he may not have been overrated all that much to begin with. Maybe.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:50:14 PM | Message Detail
Leonhart's version looks fine to me, except Crono actually seems like the weak link of the Noble Nine as of now, not Snake or Sonic or Megaman.

I can buy MC's and DK's numbers given their respective boosts, and Dante looks great too. Vercetti and Kefka, though? Man.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:51:01 PM | Message Detail
Sorry, RPGuy's version.

Of course, if Crono wins next round all that's going down the crapper, but whatever.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:51:12 PM | Message Detail
Zidane VS Terra, who wins?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:51:34 PM | Message Detail
Well, it fits in with Diablo's underwhelming performance here, too. And possibly Ganondorf's, too.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:51:35 PM | Message Detail
Maybe Vercetti was anti-voted from his match with Kefka.

Ok, don't laugh it was a joke.

Actually, do laugh since it was a joke.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:52:52 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, Kefka actually found a way to go down? Amazing.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:53:41 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, Kefka actually found a way to go down? Amazing.

Just like all of old Square, it seems.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:56:01 PM | Message Detail
Makes sense to me. Has CT reached its last legs? Would it lose to LttP in a rematch? Or maybe even SMB3?

Now I really want Megaman to win tomorrow. A Mario/Sonic match has the potential to supernova the stats just as bad as if Bowser won yesterday. *points to Mario/Shadow*
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:56:18 PM | Message Detail
Good, Crono's finally increased a percent...I was hoping I'd have to see him at 52% or something when I got back.

Yeesh...yeah, Crono had better hope that AC is helping Vince out a lot here, and that Halo 2 helped the Chief, and that the Chief creates a mess of nonlinearity that explains DK and CATS...but, ouch.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:56:52 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man could destroy the stats even worse.

*points to Mega Man/Link*

And Vincent's going up now.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:56:59 PM | Message Detail
I was hoping I'd have to see him at 52% or something when I got back.

That should be DREADING. >_<
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:57:57 PM | Message Detail
...yes, of course. Mario's pretty much the master when it comes to SFF.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: ernest | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:00:01 PM | Message Detail
MC makes CATS look surprisingly strong huh?
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:00:58 PM | Message Detail
Actually, any of the three making it to Mario has the potential to megabomb the stats.

With the legacy of Mario/Crono, Crono might make it a tighter match despite being weaker, thus inflating the stats for his entire division with an overperformance. Now, this is probably the most unlikely, but the potential is still there.

If Mega Man is really 'traditional Nintendo', Mario may SFF him and the entire half of the bracket into dust.

And Mario/Sonic has the potential to transcend the two's traditional power in favor of the fabled Nintendo/Sega rivalry which is the only way to explain Mario/Shadow.

So, yeah...maybe we should just hope Vincent shocks us all and makes it to the finals? <______<
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:01:11 PM | Message Detail
And then Crono makes him look surprisingly weak.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:01:12 PM | Message Detail
I'd rather have Sonic face Mario than MM. I don't care how strong Mario looks or how weak Sonic looks. That match would come down to the wire like it should.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:04:57 PM | Message Detail
The good news is, at least we would have an entire half of the bracket to base adjustments on.

Of course, if Crono moves on to defeat tomorrow's winner like nothing happened, then it's just a Devil division thing, and we can blame it on AC. We've seen what a major release close to a match can do (those of us who picked Tails to lose in the first round last year can attest to it). And HM, who seems well informed on the matter, says the leak is making a considerable splash across the Internet...
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:06:07 PM | Message Detail
Shadow did get 45% on Mario.

lol Shadow > Samus > Zero

I guess my order of seeing the finals goes...

1. Mario/Sonic
2. Mario/Mega Man
3. Mario/Crono

And yes, this is assume Snake gets rocked next round.
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Crono vs. Vincent - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono (92/112)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:07:04 PM | Message Detail
He needed the second night vote to get the hell away from Bowser, how can he NOT get rocked?

Oh, and no 15 silver points for Inviso.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:07:12 PM | Message Detail
"Makes sense to me. Has CT reached its last legs? Would it lose to LttP in a rematch? Or maybe even SMB3?"

Nah, FF6 proves that older Square games are independant from older Square characters. It's sad to say, though, that it looks like Crono is down to 2k2 levels.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: RevolverAk47 | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:07:24 PM | Message Detail
I posted this in the other topic as to why sonic vs megaman will be a 50/50 type match.


Megaman got 49+ on sephiroth in 2k2, samus got 47+, sonic would be the same as samus in 2k2, only 2 behind megaman. Sephiroth got a HUGE boost in 2k3 thanks to KH. Proof is that sephiroth got 48 on cloud, same as link got. So you cannot even dare put megaman at 2k3 sephiroth. he remained constant. Now, samus got 38 on link that year, megaman got 38 on sephiroth that year. So that year he = to samus. Now 2k4, samus just took off not looking back. Gettin 42 on the champ cloud, sonic who looked to be weaker that year since he got 42 on samus. Megaman in 2k4 lost to link getting only 32%. Sonic this year has shown signs of boosts, while megaman if anything until yoshi showed signs of weakness. Whatever, can go either way.


Going to go a bit further into this. Sonic got 33+ on cloud in 2k3, clouds strongest year. Megaman 38 on sephiroth. So sonic would be projected to get 36 on sephiroth. Same percentage over sonic as in 2k2. They both remained the same. Now, 2k4. Samus 41 on cloud. Sonic 42+ on samus. 41-8= projected 33-34 from sonic on cloud, around same as what he actually got in 2k3. 34-1+ = 32-33 projected from sonic on link. So what megaman got on link I think was his actual score, sonic would in 2k4 be a bit stronger then megaman. Again, why I think this will be a 49-50 match, and can go either way.
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- - -
From: ernest | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:07:31 PM | Message Detail
so will the leak affect sales sharply or will fans buy the thing anyway?
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:07:44 PM | Message Detail
2002, AFTER adjusting for those votes CJayC never removed, right?
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
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