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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 250
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:19:20 PM | Message Detail
Eh that's not even my favorite of his.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v192/FAH_Frenchie/sonicvssnake.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v192/FAH_Frenchie/megamanvscrono.jpg

Those two are awesome. Even though the odds of Sonic v Snake actually occuring are very slim.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:31:15 PM | Message Detail
And Snake has now outdone Vincent's lead on Squall! *cheers*
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:32:20 PM | Message Detail
Ya Snake!

Random thought: Considering the fact that we've had no matches decided by 1,000 votes or less, this has been a surprisingly great contest.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:33:15 PM | Message Detail
Obviously, this means Mario/Crono will be decided by one vote to make up for that. <_<
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:48:02 PM | Message Detail
Solid with 38.44% of the brackets.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Mario vs Crono | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:51:42 PM | Message Detail
Obviously, this means Mario/Crono will be decided by one vote to make up for that. <_<

That would be pretty cool. =D
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2003: Mario | 66571 | 50.05% | Crono | 66434 | 49.95% | lead of 137 |
2004: Crono | 51430 | 53.24% | Mario | 45165 | 46.76% | lead of 6265 |
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:52:46 PM | Message Detail
Snake with 30%. Bowser, Kirby, Ryu, and Tidus all being possibilities can't help him.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:57:40 PM | Message Detail
Bowser wins an update out of unmitigated SPITE. That's one hateful Koopa.
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:58:19 PM | Message Detail
Heh, <3 Bowser. He was so close, but Snake had too much on this day.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:00:18 AM | Message Detail
Crono 71.43% 5
Vincent Valentine 28.57% 2
TOTAL VOTES 7

Solid Snake had 45.57% of the brackets on his side to get to the Final Four.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:00:29 AM | Message Detail
Crono 76.92% 20
Vincent Valentine 23.08% 6
TOTAL VOTES 26

45.57% of brackets have Solid Snake in the Final 4. WHOA SUPPORT!!!
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:01:16 AM | Message Detail
The casuals always overestimate Snake, and I *love* it.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Chinballz | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:02:58 AM | Message Detail
Hey, I got the 1st vote for Vincent.
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One guru to rule them all. One guru to find them. One guru to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:03:42 AM | Message Detail
Vincent's doing pretty damn well, considering his best time isn't during the first night vote and Crono tends to do quite well during this time.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:05:47 AM | Message Detail
And Bowser knocks Magus off his pedestal, racking up 50191 votes to become our official #1 loser, something to be proud of to be sure. @_@

He has the highest vote totals of anyone eliminated thus far, but what with some of the heavy hitters coming up I can't see him keeping his title for long.
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:07:32 AM | Message Detail
Considering Dante was ahead of Vincent after the first freeze, I think we can come to expect even better from Vincent than what we're seeing right now.

Can't complain, really, though I wanted to see Donkey Kong > the entire Devil Division...minus Knuckles.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:09:40 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief > the Devil Division would've made my day, but at least Dante doesn't look like crap if Vincent does well.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:10:18 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
100----1--------0.0000000
98-----3--------66.6666667
97-----9--------77.7777778
96-----4--------75.0000000
95-----12-------75.0000000
94-----21-------76.1904762
93-----49-------83.6734694
92-----57-------75.4385965
91-----89-------76.4044944
90-----118------84.7457627
89-----144------78.4722222
88-----185------77.2972973
87-----230------83.0434783
86-----283------75.9717314
85-----399------80.9523810
84-----462------76.4069264
83-----523------75.3346080
82-----608------71.5460526
81-----681------73.1277533
80-----706------70.6798867
79-----706------65.8640227
78-----799------64.0801001
77-----835------61.6766467
76-----819------60.0732601
75-----817------61.9339045
74-----856------56.6588785
73-----844------54.8578199
72-----872------54.8165138
71-----914------53.7199125
70-----878------51.4806378
69-----872------48.3944954
68-----839------46.6030989
67-----860------45.6976744
66-----858------43.5897436
65-----792------41.2878788
64-----790------40.2531646
63-----834------39.9280576
62-----763------39.5806029
61-----746------38.8739946
60-----712------36.0955056
59-----740------32.2972973
58-----722------33.3795014
57-----644------35.8695652
56-----600------33.8333333
55-----590------33.8983051
54-----625------29.1200000
53-----546------30.9523810
52-----521------29.5585413
51-----526------28.3269962
50-----532------31.2030075
49-----483------31.6770186
48-----469------28.3582090
47-----454------28.6343612
46-----443------30.9255079
45-----364------31.3186813
44-----416------27.4038462
43-----376------28.1914894
42-----359------30.9192201
41-----329------28.8753799
40-----315------29.2063492
39-----320------31.5625000
38-----259------24.7104247
37-----260------21.9230769
36-----235------27.2340426
35-----215------21.8604651
34-----179------18.4357542
33-----153------24.1830065
32-----172------19.7674419
31-----117------24.7863248
30-----104------16.3461538
29-----84-------22.6190476
28-----81-------22.2222222
27-----72-------20.8333333
26-----57-------15.7894737
25-----43-------11.6279070
24-----42-------11.9047619
23-----37-------10.8108108
22-----22-------9.0909091
21-----16-------6.2500000

Everybody with a score of 20 or less got the match wrong.

And we lose the -4 leaving -6 as the top score. The top tiers didn't do too badly with mid-70s and low 80s for prediction percentages, that's about twice as high as the groups near the middle.

13 people fell off the Top 50 today. MechaMachine16, skull_bonek23, treiliae, Warzard, LostSavior, RogueFiver, ArLeCheBoHe, Tatsumaki_Kyaku, The_Sub, donutboi, Celtic7Guardian, Heroic_Icon and Ghost617 didn't have Solid Snake winning the match today.
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:11:36 AM | Message Detail
Vincent should pull Crono under 60% tonight and I would expect him to do a little bit more during the day--as Vincent's worst time is usually right around now.

I hope to wake up tomorrow with Vincent with about 41% or so, because that would just kick ass. Go Vince! <3

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:12:39 AM | Message Detail
Tatsumaki_Kyaku,

=(

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:13:49 AM | Message Detail
I have an eerie feeling you might not have to wait that long...
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Darkwing Duck | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:14:35 AM | Message Detail
T-123 right now.

Have a chance if my bracket holds up to hit the top 50. One of the few with a Mario, MM final, I imagine.
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Let's get Dangerous.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:16:18 AM | Message Detail
I stay for one more update and it's a great one! Vincent over 40% already. Niiiiice. <3 <3

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:16:21 AM | Message Detail
Oh! Practically called it! Vincent with 40.52%!

*High 5's HM before running to bed*

Jeez... I hope Crono can drag his ass into the finals...
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:18:13 AM | Message Detail
Duck, what's your ToC look like?
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:18:14 AM | Message Detail
To note, Sonic is the only character left who is NOT represented in the Top Fifty. For shame; he would have made for a better choice than Vincent.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:21:48 AM | Message Detail
Nice to see Vincent already above 40% here on Crono. Pull Squall up high and leave Master Chief in the dust!
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:23:40 AM | Message Detail
Hell, I hope Vincent will flat-out beat Crono. Overly ridiculous to ask for, yes, but Vincent > Crono anyways. Plus, it raises Knuckles.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: LuniNutz99 | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:29:26 AM | Message Detail
Woot! My alt just made the top 50. COM1_is_BUSY!

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Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:31:39 AM | Message Detail
Heh, Snake/Bowser and Squall/Vincent ended up with the same percentage, but the latter still holds the contest's closest match by vote margin.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:33:00 AM | Message Detail
So far, if Vincent finishes like this (40.89%), Magus would be expected to get 36.69% on Crono. If both Crono and Magus were constant from last year, Magus was SFF'd 6.47% of what he shoulda got.

This is assuming there's not an unusual FF7>CT-type rSFF...which there probably isn't for this case.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:35:59 AM | Message Detail
Heh, Snake/Bowser and Squall/Vincent ended up with the same percentage, but the latter still holds the contest's closest match by vote margin.

I noticed that too. Also notice that Squall has the highest total votes for those eliminated in the Sweet Sixteen, while Bowser has a very real chance of having the lowest total votes for those eliminated in the Elite Eight. Add to it that Squall/Bowser was expected to be a very close match last year...

...kinky. Not that I think it'd still be close now, but, come on, it's interesting.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:41:06 AM | Message Detail
Time for me to go to bed...Vincent or Zero, who wins?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:45:39 AM | Message Detail
Bowser has a very real chance of having the lowest total votes for those eliminated in the Elite Eight.

Considering Samus' collapse and the niggling fact he has the highest vote totals of anyone eliminated thus far, no. There's zero chance.
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:50:49 AM | Message Detail
Please, do realize that Bowser's got 21,816 total votes less than Samus. The only one who can compete with Bowser for lowest total votes being eliminated in the Elite Eight is Vincent, and I'm guessing Vincent's gonna break Bowser's 213,774 votes.

It's a useless stat anyways though; just thought I'd throw it out there.


Seriously goin' to bed this time.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:53:34 AM | Message Detail
Please, do realize that Bowser's got 21,816 total votes less than Samus. The only one who can compete with Bowser for lowest total votes being eliminated in the Elite Eight is Vincent, and I'm guessing Vincent's gonna break Bowser's 213,774 votes.

From your wording I believed you were speaking of those eliminated this - and only this - round. Of course Samus has a higher number of votes total in the contest than *Bowser*.

If that line of thought was incorrect, sorry.
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:01:24 AM | Message Detail
*raises eyebrows*

Vincent just won an update.

Take THAT, Master Chief!
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:13:50 AM | Message Detail
If Vincent's day vote really pull through, he could make out Crono to look pretty bad...I mean, seriously, what was 2k4 Crono projected to get on Squall (yeah, I know, probably already been answered, but can't be bothered to look for it, so...whatever)?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:14:29 AM | Message Detail
Crono is expected to get a little less than 60% on Squall.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:23:02 AM | Message Detail
And Vincent wins another update.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:24:58 AM | Message Detail
So, during Vincent's worst time, he already has over 42% on him and has won two updates. I'm looking at this match, Crono/Master Chief, Magus 2k5, and Frog 2k5...

...guys, I may be jumping the gun here, but I think Crono may be in trouble next round.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: chaos knight | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:25:26 AM | Message Detail
Seems that, *assuming* Crono wins, its doubtful he will make this far again next year at this rate. Just...damn.
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Future sig pending
...I guess
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:26:19 AM | Message Detail
Nah, Squall and Vincent are just this strong, baby! Or maybe Advent Children is kicking in for Vincent.

Then again, it's more likely that Crono really might be in trouble.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:26:26 AM | Message Detail
Though I didn't take into account the possibility that Squall was underrated a bit, which I think could have been the case thanks to Link/Samus SFF and Cloud/Squall SFF.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:27:31 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and of course AC, which has actually created far more of a buzz across the internet than I thought it would. Seriously, I can't click a damn hyperlink without stumbling over some information on it.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:29:49 AM | Message Detail
And for the record, Vincent is rather cool in Advent Children, though his role is small.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:31:23 AM | Message Detail
He's also going 50/50 with Crono right now. O_O

Could he win more updates than Mario did in 2k4? *holds breath*
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Mamuman | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:42:31 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't call this match over yet. Crono sucks with the day vote adn Vincent gained on Squall. A comeback is possible.

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This user is my god
v
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:45:23 AM | Message Detail
Trust me, Vincent's not coming back from this one...though he might make it embarrassingly close for Crono. At least, I think so...

Damn. My bracket's finally in a good position again, and I realize I have Crono winning the whole thing. *tosses bracket out* Well, I know I'm not making it.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:46:20 AM | Message Detail
And Vincent wins yet ANOTHER update. Unbelievable.
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For the first time ever, Solid Snake has made the Final Four! Believe it.
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