Heh, there are only two decent ways to estimate Yoshi this year:

Based off 2K4 Laharl: 29.01%
Based off 2K4 Pac-Man: 29.24%

At least they're pretty consistant, and that sort of boost fits in with the other Nintendo characters.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Well I think Leon Kennedy could very well be equal to Tidus based on what Claire did, so Mega Man hasn't really dropped any.

I also think that Sonic and Snake are virtually equals, and Mega Man gets to stomping Snake yearly.

Sonic has a chance, but Mega Man's still the favorite in my books.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef

Mega Man isn't even Nintendo, he completely failed to SFF Zero (from his own series!) and Leon (from his company own company), and suddenly he can take 12% off of Yoshi, when Link only managed 7%? No, I don't know for certain that it's false, but that seems like a very large stretch to me.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Well, Mega's inability to SFF Zero I think is much more Zero's strength than his weakness (besides Samus didn't notably SFF Ganondorf but I'd bet she would SFF Yoshi hard). Also, I'd be outright shocked if Mega Capcom SFF'd Leon. The games they hail from are almost completely different.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Overperformance isn't entirely related to company affiliation...If Snake overperformed on Sora, he did so by a sizable margin (even putting him at 35% on Link only gives him 58% against 2004 Sora, and I'm not sold on him merely dropping), and they have little in common other than sharing a system.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Mario games and Metroid games are completely different, as far as I can tell, and that didn't stop Mario.

As for Mega Man not SFFing Zero because he was strong, that didn't stop Link or Mario, either. And Yoshi's no cupcake; I'd guess that he's in at least the 31%BL area (which scales upwards both the SFF Link got last year and the SFF that Mega Man would be required to get this year).

In fact, the more I think about it the more I start saying "Mega Man/Crono" in my head, instead of the other way around.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Overperformance isn't entirely related to company affiliation

This is true, and alleged FFVII/PSX SFF could be further proof of that, but the fact that Mega Man was handed Zero directly after we had 3 SFF matches and failed to do anything makes me very suspicious of his ability to grab boatloads of SFF. We at least agree that Snake was able to SFF Raiden (though we obviously don't agree on how much), so Snake's done it before. Mega Man hasn't.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I'm starting to change my mind on this match - I thought Bowser would continue to cut at the lead. this has gotten pretty boring for a 50.5-49.5 match.

I've got Snake with, oh, 44% of the brackets. and I'm going to bed. night y'all.

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.

Zero could have "reverse SFFed" Mega Man. Maybe a bunch of Mega Man X fans thought "well, I like Mega Man more, but it'd be cool to see Zero win this".

Who knows?
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef

You have to remember that the entire bases of SFF is that one character is unproportionally preferred over the other. The very design of Zero has him being more likeable than X from the very first time you see him.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Zero is a massive fan favorite in the X series. I could easily see why Mega Man wouldn't SFF him. There are many diehard Zero fans out there.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

And I agree with that, but it still doesn't speak well of Mega Man, and doesn't explain why he could SFF Yoshi to such a huge degree. Yoshi is, as you recall, a huge fan favorite of the Mario series.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Snake with 23% of brackets. It's a lot more likely that someone would take Bowser or Kirby over Snake than anyone in Snake's own division.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

While I agree with that logic I still find it more likely they'd take Snake > Bowser.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Plus, I don't see Yoshi being all that much stronger than Tifa, and following a bad reading on Mega Man's part, we can't draw a solid conclusion there. I just don't see the merits of using Yoshi here as a basis for Mega Man over Sonic. There's just too much we don't know about that match.

As I said before, I'm not entirely sold on the idea that Leon Kennedy beats Diablo handily. I'd take him to win, but not by a large margin.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

But would you take Tidus over Diablo very handily, Leonhart? I know I would.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef

Hm, Snake with 36.3%
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I don't think Tidus would beat Diablo down, per se. He might get 55-56%, if he's lucky.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Snake's on target to break 1000!
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

My respect for Diablo dropped right through the floor. I don't think he'd do so well against Tidus and I don't think his Sp rating is correct (thanks to Ganon).
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Hmmm...I hope the adjustments this Summer are good...and by good, I mean Ganon at 36% on BL. Mario > Samus > Ganon > The rest.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Whoa, bad update for Bowser. Snake should finish this match with over 1000 vote victory. The only question at this point is if it'll pass Squall/Vincent for smallest margin or not.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Snake will be somewhere around 38 on BL =/.
---

Snake cracks 1000!

"Congrats, Snake!"
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Whatever you say. The better for him, the better for Bowser, actually.

Atta' boy, Solid.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

So yeah, it's kinda weird that Snake just keeps constant and Bowser jumps all over the place. "The Bowser vote stuffer have lost all their resource". Heh...

I'm sure I'm gonna be jumped on for crying cheating, but this huge Snake shift that is pretty much all caused by Bowser supports me.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef

Snake will crack 45% on Mario.
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So Bowser could get about 45% on Mario too?

I'd love to see Solid do well, but excuse me for not buying it.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

*cough*SFF*cough*
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Don't be silly Harrich, you saw the SFF between Mario/Bowser..

In a world where no SFF existed (Impossible), Bowser would get 45% on Mario.
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Perhaps throwing in "before SFF" would made given me more credibility here.....
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Mario/Bowser has a TON of SSF in it, as we saw last year.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

And we finally break the 100,000 mark. G'night folks, see you tomorrow.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

Seriously

You can't think THAT many Nintendo Fans would go Mario > Snake > Bowser. You gotta assume the fanbase between the two is pretty close..

I can't see Snake fans voting Mario over him when they didn't vote Bowser over him.
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Actually, I can see that happening quite easily. Mario is going to own Snake, in all liklihood. I'll consider it a moral victory if he cracks 43%.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I thought the same thing about Mario/Bowser/Ness; I thought most people would think Mario > Bowser > Ness...and, it is, but a good 3% must have thought Mario > Ness > Bowser. With that said, that's an all-SFF trio, so I imagine it's even easier for people to think Mario > Solid > Bowser.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I hope Ceej uses snailien's Mario/Snake picture...
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

What pic did he send Leonhart?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

You can't think THAT many Nintendo Fans would go Mario > Snake > Bowser. You gotta assume the fanbase between the two is pretty close..

That's what everyone assumed in 2003. The result? A humiliated Luigi, a shocked Board 8, and one of the greatest Fanta Shokatas of all time.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v496/snailien/MariovsSnake.jpg
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Hey, Solid is gonna lose anyways, so let him go out in style. That picture NNEEEEDDSS to be used.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Snake would win with that picture..
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I'd like to take a crack at making a picture to be submitted. An ideal one would probably be Crono/Sonic, although my best work would come from me making a Vincent/Anyone look incredible.


Oh, and congratulations Snake. I don't care for him, my opinion of him is even lesser when we enter into a contest environment, but I suppose it's good for some people to see him there.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

I like the one is this topic too.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=23513381

I'd be happy to see either one, actually.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef

As an optimal match picture, I would love LuniNutz's, except it doesn't get a good view of Snake's face. Still, it's a damn good wonder on its own:

http://users.triconet.org/rskovan/mario_snake.jpg
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

http://server2.uploadit.org/files/blitzace71-mariosnake.jpg

Heh, very nice. I like the Snake-in-box better, but both are very acceptable.


http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v192/FAH_Frenchie/mariovscrono.jpg

This is my favorite user-made pic I've seen yet.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I'm not a big fan of any 'back shots' for characters, really.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Oh, and Snake is absolutely *cruising* now. C'mon, Snake! Outdo Vincent/Squall!
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Neither am I, but it still looks very nice and it makes Crono that less likely to beat Mario. =)
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.