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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 250
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:13:10 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: transience | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:13:27 PM | Message Detail
I want to know how Snake obliterates Bowser during the night only to go 49/51 or so with him during the second night vote. you'd think the two would at least resemble each other.
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.
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:13:37 PM | Message Detail
Bowser is gaining at an extremely odd time. o.0
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~*Ex~Tha*~
Splendid RKO King of Board 8
From: Fiop | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:14:07 PM | Message Detail
Look at the night vote for DK vs. MC.....DK took the first night vote, but MC took the 2nd even until the end.
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I can move mountains
From: transience | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:14:51 PM | Message Detail
MC is known for that. Bowser isn't.
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From: andaca | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:14:52 PM | Message Detail
Yes, and most of the reason is due to dips in Snake votes, not huge increases on Bowser's part.

The numbers don't suggest cheating on either character's part, and if they did, Snake is looking a bit more suspicious.
From: DaruniaTheGoron | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:15:34 PM | Message Detail
SNAKE GAINED!

2 votes... haha.
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The only thing O.J. is guilty of is mercilessly slashing through all defenders to score touchdowns. - ImNotYou
Proud member of the Hylian Knights--83/104 in the 2k5 SC -- XBL GT: Vance Mendoza
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:15:39 PM | Message Detail
Well, yeah, but that was because the after-school vote favored MC until the home stretch--and DK so does love to choke on the second night vote.

Snake was looking like he had the momentum, but then Bowser just sapped it from under him. Which is odd, because he's not good with the night vote. He even lost some percentage against Ocelot.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: jetaudio77 | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:16:06 PM | Message Detail
Man Alucard is going to look so bad
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Your opinion is better then mine.
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:16:35 PM | Message Detail
With DK/Chief I expected it, though. Many of the votes in the first night vote are from other countries, and X-Box is primarily a US system. There's no real reason for Snake to continue to plummet here, especially considering what Bowser and Snake have done with it in the past.

Bout time Snake wins an update... 2 votes!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:16:41 PM | Message Detail
Ugh...every time it looks like Bowser's got a shot at getting back into this, an update or two swings the other way. At this rate, I really don't know if he has enough time to pull it off.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:16:43 PM | Message Detail
Actually, until that last update, Bowser's big gains were due to his spikes, not Snake's drops. Speaking exclusively about the night voting, of course.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:16:54 PM | Message Detail
Bowser has won the last 8 hours and 15 minutes. It's not like he's gaining out of nowhere.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: andaca | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:17:41 PM | Message Detail
*sigh*...

Bowser looks like he'll get it under 500, but win? No chance.

My bracket cries at its constant losses.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:17:42 PM | Message Detail
Bowser has won the last 8 hours and 15 minutes. It's not like he's gaining out of nowhere.

There's a difference between winning updates by 2-8 votes and 25-35 votes. It's not the gaining that was odd, it was the magnitude of it.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:18:11 PM | Message Detail
At this point, I hope that either Bowser wins, or Snake wins by at least 897 votes so that I'll have another Prophet victory.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: transience | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:19:11 PM | Message Detail
the 13:25 update is the only one that looked weird to me. the rest look very legit.
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From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:19:43 PM | Message Detail
What we need is a Jill/Ryu situation, second night. Jill waited FOR EVER to finally start going crazy right until the end of the poll. Unless Bowser starts winning these updates big, that's what he'll need to happen...except successfully...

and I loved that match, Jill/Ryu...
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:20:16 PM | Message Detail
Oh, certainly legit. Like I said, if this is a cheater, it's the best one I've ever seen...and I kinda doubt Ceej would be able to catch one that good. = /
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:27:08 PM | Message Detail
Hey TRE, can you give a rundown of what percent of people with each score got yesterday's match right?

Ah yes, I did forgot about that. Thanks for reminding me.

Score-Brackets-% Right
93-----1--------0.0000000
92-----1--------100.0000000
91-----1--------0.0000000
90-----8--------37.5000000
89-----16-------56.2500000
88-----11-------36.3636364
87-----31-------38.7096774
86-----39-------53.8461538
85-----131------36.6412214
84-----134------42.5373134
83-----193------45.5958549
82-----204------55.3921569
81-----254------53.9370079
80-----274------64.9635036
79-----317------66.5615142
78-----372------71.2365591
77-----439------71.9817768
76-----515------74.7572816
75-----560------74.6428571
74-----672------76.9345238
73-----716------78.7709497
72-----759------80.3689065
71-----769------78.0234070
70-----899------76.9744160
69-----905------78.6740331
68-----909------75.7975798
67-----916------73.6899563
66-----956------73.3263598
65-----975------70.9743590
64-----1023-----70.6744868
63-----1074-----69.3668529
62-----994------67.5050302
61-----1015-----66.8965517
60-----973------63.6176773
59-----1017-----60.8652901
58-----987------61.0942249
57-----917------55.5070883
56-----873------56.1282932
55-----911------55.4335895
54-----888------49.5495495
53-----825------49.6969697
52-----769------46.5539662
51-----758------45.1187335
50-----766------44.1253264
49-----656------35.9756098
48-----633------34.2812006
47-----590------31.1864407
46-----593------29.8482293
45-----467------28.0513919
44-----514------21.4007782
43-----469------23.4541578
42-----452------23.0088496
41-----379------16.6226913
40-----360------14.7222222
39-----364------13.1868132
38-----285------9.4736842
37-----287------9.7560976
36-----247------4.8582996
35-----231------7.3593074
34-----190------5.7894737
33-----166------7.8313253
32-----180------4.4444444
31-----121------3.3057851
30-----105------0.9523810
29-----85-------1.1764706
28-----81-------0.0000000
27-----73-------1.3698630

Everybody with a score of 26 or lower got the match wrong.

As you might of expected the middle tiers out performed the top tiers in this match. The top tiers had a prediction percentage in the mid-30s while some of the mid tiers had twice that and the people with a score 72 even hit a 80 prediction percentage. We've also now lost out -3 and -5, but the -4 manage to get the match correct.

These 28 people didn't have Mario winning and fell off the Top 50: KingOfHyrule2, Sanosuke3, OK_Undertow, tehunknownazn, Ayvuir, Helba_Qotd, DumpyDiaper, miaminole21, Silent_Alarm, love0vs0hate, Sonic_Overdrive, GhostNinjaDuck, dddffffg, Princess_Anri, lolo262626, JohnDeere04, OlorinFirecrest, Vip3r_Vixen, pipedreamer220, Tirofog, Fenny, Alanna82, Confidentiality, EvenFlow4, chillaxin_homie, ShadowAngemon, KadenceInc and ChichiriMuyo.
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:30:45 PM | Message Detail
Snake just increased by 20. This is obvious cheating.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:31:23 PM | Message Detail
If anyone deserves to be in the final four for once It's Snake, Then comes Kirby. :D
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:31:43 PM | Message Detail
Snake finally gets a spike, Bowser stays constant.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:31:47 PM | Message Detail
Finally Snake gets some cheating on. He was needing it.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:32:41 PM | Message Detail
Yea Snake! Keep on cheatin!
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: DaruniaTheGoron | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:34:20 PM | Message Detail
Just my luck that the people around me predicted that match well.
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The only thing O.J. is guilty of is mercilessly slashing through all defenders to score touchdowns. - ImNotYou
Proud member of the Hylian Knights--83/104 in the 2k5 SC -- XBL GT: Vance Mendoza
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:37:57 PM | Message Detail
Looking very bleak for Bowser. He was expected to cut the lead down to 608 by the end of the hour. He needs someof those big updates again.
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:42:44 PM | Message Detail
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/14/2005 7:51:24 PM | Message Detail | #036
I would think that Snake going up 54 there, his biggest update in more than 8 hours, ends Bowser's chances. He'll go down being the strongest non-Noble Niner and the closest we've ever seen to an upset of the N9.

And I'm pretty confident that Mario breaks 60% on Snake next round.

--
Sig Bet on it?
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:43:44 PM | Message Detail
A thought: since so many people are so disdainful of the term 'Noble Nine' (myself included), I'm going to start just calling them 'The Nine'. Basically, the nine characters who have been in every contest and have yet to lose. I'm just saying this because I don't think we would have had a Noble Nine today if it hadn't been for MGS3, so it's easier, more appropriate, and overall just better to call them that.

But that's just me, LOL votals.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:44:50 PM | Message Detail
Basically, the nine characters who have been in every contest and have yet to lose.

Addendum: ...to others outside the nine.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:47:42 PM | Message Detail
Speaking of votals, they're doing quite well today.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:51:20 PM | Message Detail
I would honestly take Ganon and Bowser over Sonic.

Snake > Sonic this year.

Mario gave up 45% to Shadow, I'm sure Snake can break 45..
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From: Dranze | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:52:44 PM | Message Detail
.....

Okay, now I know he's kidding...

Unless he thinks Zero < Shadow..
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:53:44 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:54:33 PM | Message Detail
Unless Sonic beats Mega Man, he'll be the only noble 9 character to reach the final 4.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Majin Lou | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:54:52 PM | Message Detail
*wants what Tequilla is smoking*
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Kurotsuchi Mayuri fan
Supporter of Solid Snake in the Summer 2k5 Character Battle IV
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:56:29 PM | Message Detail
Horrendous update for Bowser there. That was likely the nail in the coffin.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:56:52 PM | Message Detail
Unless Sonic beats Mega Man, he'll be the only noble 9 character to not reach the final 4.

FIXED
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:58:14 PM | Message Detail
That update was entirely due to Bowser only taking in 91 votes. Snake has been dead-on consistent for awhile now.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:58:39 PM | Message Detail
Obviously, this is Sonic's year!

Eh...Mega's probably got it, in retrospect. Though I'm still shuddering at how strong that makes Gordon Freeman.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 8:59:29 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, that's why I called it a horrendous one for Bowser. Otherwise I'd have called it a terrific one for Snake. ^_^
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/14/2005 9:01:10 PM | Message Detail
These 28 people didn't have Mario winning and fell off the Top 50: KingOfHyrule2, Sanosuke3, OK_Undertow, tehunknownazn, Ayvuir, Helba_Qotd, DumpyDiaper, ***miaminole21***, Silent_Alarm, love0vs0hate, Sonic_Overdrive, GhostNinjaDuck, dddffffg, Princess_Anri, lolo262626, JohnDeere04, OlorinFirecrest, Vip3r_Vixen, pipedreamer220, Tirofog, Fenny, Alanna82, Confidentiality, EvenFlow4, chillaxin_homie, ShadowAngemon, KadenceInc and ChichiriMuyo.

;_; So close....
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/14/2005 9:01:29 PM | Message Detail
Oh crap, that'd suck that Sonic will be the only noble nine to have never reached the Final 4... Hopefully he'll get his chance next year. Snake got it this year, Sonic needs a good bracket position next year, I'm thinking.
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Vote for Mario, this year's contest champion!
Mega Man > Sonic
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/14/2005 9:02:37 PM | Message Detail
Bowser now needs to cut into the lead with 21.56 votes per update. He's expected to cut the lead to 517 at the end of this hour. Maybe too much to ask at this point...
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/14/2005 9:06:18 PM | Message Detail
If Sonic's ever going to reach the F4, this is his year. Every other year he's had horrible bracket position.
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/14/2005 9:06:42 PM | Message Detail
Snake would have to completely collapse. It ain't gonna happen.
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/14/2005 9:06:53 PM | Message Detail
A thought: since so many people are so disdainful of the term 'Noble Nine' (myself included), I'm going to start just calling them 'The Nine'.

Yeah, but...'The Nine' is an annoying troll. You shouldn't ever say anything positive about him.

And I'm calling this match a pic underperformance by Snake. No more than a percent or two, sure, and not as major as some were expecting, but an underperformance nonetheless.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/14/2005 9:07:22 PM | Message Detail
Oh, adn about the Noble Nine... Mega Man is the last character in the Noble Nine to have only lost to Clinkeroth.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/14/2005 9:07:23 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, the match is lost on Bowser at this point. But I still call this a moral victory, given that most people, including plenty in this very topic, didn't give him the slightest chance. Bowser put up one hell of a fight for someone who was supposedly too weak to challenge a member of the so-called Noble Nine, as well as too low in the X-STATS.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/14/2005 9:08:15 PM | Message Detail
Other than Clinkeroth, obv.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
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