Vlado’s Analysis

I believed that Vincent could make his way to the Final Four by somehow SFFing Crono, but, after his flop against Squall, it's obvious that it just can't happen. Despite his lackluster performance against Master Chief, Crono has this one, and with ease. Vincent started in a very strong fashion, owning Kerrigan in what was expected to be a close match by some on the board. He then beat Dante with 54%, which wasn't too bad, given that Dante got a huge advantage with the bracket votes. However, he did incredibly badly against Squall, winning by just 1000 votes in a match where all factors, except "main character" were on his side...

That's why I just don't see Vincent winning here. Sure, he won't get completely owned, but Crono should get a convincing victory. Squall is simply nowhere near Crono's strength, even if Crono has dropped, as the match against Master Chief hinted, to the point where he's not even certain to beat Sonic (who has, by the way, increased a good deal). Sure, FFVII is mainstream, CT isn't, the casual characters are much stronger this year, but Crono is not Squall. He's not from FFVIII, there are much less people who dislike him than they do Squall. It will be a boring match, Crono will not be able to destroy Vincent, but he'll get a comfortable win. Unfortunately, I don't think Crono can get what he has long deserved, namely, a championship title, anymore. Mario has simply gotten way too strong even for him.

Predicted percentage: Crono with 58.48%.

Good show, Bowser. You proved your strength, but you just didn't have enough.

Mario won't break 60% on Snake next round, I predict.

*reads Inviso's analysis*

*head explodes*
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Inviso picked a bad match to place a "Noble Nine being dethroned" prediction...
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

VINCENT will win?!?!?!?!
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Heh, nobody has Crono breaking 60% tomorrow. That's how it ought to be.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Wow, the highest prediction is 59%? The hell?

Oh, and huzzah for Snake regaining the momentum. *slaps self for actually rooting for Snake* Okay, I'm going home. See ya tomorrow.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

It was a nice run, and it's funny that Snake needed to rely on the second night vote to win this thing.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/14/2005 10:00:50 PM |
*reads Inviso's analysis*

*head explodes*
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

In the past hour, Bowser gained an average of 1/6 of a vote against Solid per five-minute update. At this rate, Solid wins with 922 votes.

FYI, Bowser needs 15.53 votes more than Solid per update to win now. With the smaller vote-totals at night and the known history of Bowser blowing the night-vote, this one is in the books.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

The night vote's kicking in. Bowser is struggling.

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BLAAHAHEHAHRHAJHEKLAKHHEWUHG!!!!!~!!1?? -Tombs
LOL more like Samus ArOWNED

Heh, nobody has Crono breaking 60% tomorrow. That's how it ought to be.

Indeed.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

As a Snake fan, I would like to congratulate Bowser. He fought bravely today.

Yowsers.

Bowser must've impressed if one of his more out-spoken critics is giving him props. You go, Koopa King.

So -- how far back in the pack is Kirby now, top twelve or higher? And where does this place everyone else in their respective divisions?
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run

I think people are just a little wary of putting Master Chief above Vincent's level...that would be depressing to some.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I really have no idea where Slow is getting this "Crono needs to clear 60% or he's in trouble" stuff. The stats predict nearly 60/40 exactly.

If he gets 55% or less, THEN he's in trouble.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

I was really close to going with 60.83%, but decided to lower it a wee bit. Drat. Now I be boxed in.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 93/104 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)

Heh, I was dying to see how some of you would act when you saw Inviso's prediction.

And I figured 61% before Crono/MC (for the winner of Squall/Vincent), but lowered to 59% after. We should see that Chief isn't as weak as we thought, and that Crono hasn't fallen.
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Snake vs. Bowser - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (84/104)

Hmmm...We're about 4,000 ahead of Mario/Samus, so 100,000 looks good if we maintain the pace. This match being close should help that be so.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

I'd take Dante over Chief, so giving Crono 60% over Vincent was never really an option. 57% sounds about right to me.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

MC shouldn't mean a thing, he's a weird dude and a bad person to gauge strength off of. I agree that 55% is the number that would make me scared. I also think Vincent has a good chance of getting it.
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.

I think it's great that she thinks Crono would have to fight tooth and nail to defeat Knuckles.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*

It's time for a little true or false questioning.

True or false:

Snake well be over 35% on bl this year.

Sora got sff'd by snake.

Vincent well be a potential noble nine breaker next year due to dirge of cerberus and to a lesser extent advent children (you don't need to agree with the "to a lesser extent" part to put true, it just makes sense).

Zero is still and elite character, and got schooled due to a mario increase, not because he dropped any.

Mario well win the main bracket.

Mario well beat sephiroth.

Yoshi SFF'd pacman.

Megaman sff'd yoshi.

That's it for now.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy

Crono will get 65%...you'll see...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

*stares at Invisio's analysis*

0_o

If MC had managed to get 55%+ on DK then I would still have faith in Crono. But MC couldin't even get 51%. There's no way DK somehow boosted as high as that puts him.

1) True
2) False
3) True
4) False
5) False
6) False
7) True
8) False
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Chrono Trigger has been showing weakness this entire contest

I can agree with that. I think the magic is finally wearing off.

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"Being a Hunter has to be the best job in the world! Well, next to pimp..."

I agree that 55% is the number that would make me scared. I also think Vincent has a good chance of getting it.

Yeah, Vincent getting 55% would drastically lower Crono's chances against Sonic/Mega Man.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

ZING!
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

TRUE OR FALSE

Snake would've still won if he didn't get the 2nd night vote.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Vincent getting 45%+ = gg for Crono against Sonic.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*

Vincent getting 45%+ = gg for Crono against Mega Man.

Fixed.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Maybe part of CT's strength in the past was that it was almost always considered the underdog. Every year, Crono would come *this* close to upsetting Mario but couldn't quite do it. There were even high hopes for Magus and Frog when they debutted and they ended up doing great during their first year debuts. Then...it happened. Crono beat Mario in a, surprisingly, weakly debated match for once and with that, the underdog had finally won but done so rather meekly.

Now Frog and Magus have been exposed to be shams while Crono has been underperforming this entire contest practically so far. Most also expected he would make the Finals anyway, which was in sharp contrast to previous contests so the bandwagon support he used to generate has fizzled.
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Future sig pending
...I guess

Don't fix what isn't broken.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy

Crono has been underperforming? he did just fine against TV, and we have no way of knowing about MC and Zidane.
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.

Snake well be over 35% on bl this year.

FALSE. If he exceeds it, it won't be by much.

Sora got sff'd by snake.

EH.

Vincent well be a potential noble nine breaker next year due to dirge of cerberus and to a lesser extent advent children (you don't need to agree with the "to a lesser extent" part to put true, it just makes sense).

EH.

Zero is still and elite character, and got schooled due to a mario increase, not because he dropped any.

TRUE.

Mario well win the main bracket.

TRUE.

Mario well beat sephiroth.

MAYBE -- but I guarantee he'll break 47%.

Yoshi SFF'd pacman.

TRUE.

Megaman sff'd yoshi.

TRUE.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

*sigh*

of all the days to have to work a 14-hour day...... -_-

i work from 7 AM to 9 PM and it happens on the same day as one of the best matches of the contest. bah. well, at least i knew Bowser had it in him to give Snake a run for his money. go Bowser!!

so, this may have been asked earlier today, but do you think any non-Noble Niner could take Snake down if he had a non-Snake-sprite pic?

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

Possibly Ganondorf, but I'm not sure.
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SC2K5 Score: 93/104
Today's Pick: Solid Snake

Snake would've still won if he didn't get the 2nd night vote.

I believe so, yes. Bowser had too much ground to cover before day's end, and he sort of tuckers out towards the finish line.

I do think Snake would've been meat today had it not been for MGS3. Bowser's proven himself as a true force, and that his place in the elite eight this contest was well-deserved.
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run

Snake's not exactly winning the second night vote here. this match still isn't over, though it's close if he can stall for a couple more hours.
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.

Bowser's still whittling the lead down, but while the Koopa King's got all this power & looks too, time is something he has precious little of.
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run

Bowser might win his eight straight hour (he's up 43 votes halfway into it), but he's going way too slowly to come back.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Snake's not exactly winning the second night vote here. this match still isn't over, though it's close if he can stall for a couple more hours.

It's been over since 1100 votes.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Snake's stalling Bowser long enough to where he won't have enough time.

Bowser needs nearly 200 votes per hour to win. I don't think he can manage it at this pace.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

At this point, Bowser needs about 16.5 votes per update to make a comback.

Bowser, what the **** were you thinking? XD Trying to defy that all-mighty power that's the Noble Nine? How cute. You're nothing but hype, turtle. :-) And you, Zelda, Tifa.

Next Victim: Vincent. Seriously, the Noble Nine has proven their worth like no other.

Oh, and LOL X-STATS! >_>


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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (240 Signs!)

Some fun stuff, assuming this match ends with 50.5% for Snake:

If Snake gets 40.61%+ on Mario, Bowser will outrank Samus.
If Snake gets 42.41%+ on Mario, Kirby will outrank Samus.
If Snake gets 45.21%+ on Mario, Zelda will outrank Samus.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Man, I desperately want Snake to get 42.41%+ now.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

42.41%, eh?

That's pretty close to what I'm expecting from him now...
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Snake vs. Bowser - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (84/104)

adjusting Samus is going to be a pain this year. ugh.
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45.21+% for Solid would be alright with me, too.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.