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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 249
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:27:32 PM | Message Detail
If Crono doesn't beat Vincent by well over 55%, the finals will be Cloud and Sephiroth.

Annnnnd why?
From: RevolverAk47 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:27:34 PM | Message Detail
crono won't get more then 55 I think, he got 61 on MC.
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From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:27:48 PM | Message Detail
Unless of course Crono has dropped...

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:28:03 PM | Message Detail
Vincent isn't much stronger than MC though.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Zaphod H | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:28:33 PM | Message Detail
Seems like both sides have lost a bit of steam in the past two updates, relatively low vote gains for both.

This new hour is looking to be good for Snake, as Bowser hasn't cut into his lead if the past 5 updates are put in aggregate.
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SSBM. Rock rock on!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:28:39 PM | Message Detail
Vincent isn't much stronger than MC though.

...Bwa ha ha. My, oh, my. That's hilarious.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:28:50 PM | Message Detail
So you think DK could make a match with Squall?
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:29:37 PM | Message Detail
"Annnnnd why?"


Because it would mean Advent Children made a huge difference. Cronos supposed to be in the top five characters and Vincent isn't even close to elite level. So it would mean either Crono dropped or FF7 gained a massive boost from the leak.

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: transience | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:29:53 PM | Message Detail
Vincent would beat MC with at least 55%.
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From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:30:18 PM | Message Detail
Vincent won't break 40% on Crono.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:30:42 PM | Message Detail
Vincent won't break 40% on Crono.

Yes, he will, actually.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:30:48 PM | Message Detail
Because it would mean Advent Children made a huge difference. Cronos supposed to be in the top five characters and Vincent isn't even close to elite level. So it would mean either Crono dropped or FF7 gained a massive boost from the leak.

Vincent just could be close to an Elite Level, but if Vinecnt does good, it doesn't make Cloud look that great either, because all the Nintendo characters got a huge increase just as much as Cloud would get.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:30:53 PM | Message Detail
*sigh*
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: transience | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:31:15 PM | Message Detail
Bowser's back at it.

Vincent may not break 40% on Crono (I think he will, but barely), but that doesn't mean Vincent's as weak as MC. nuh uh.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:31:18 PM | Message Detail
At the very least as much as Knuckles did. All of Nintendo's most recognizable players have looked like monsters so far.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:31:19 PM | Message Detail
Crono is in a pickle!

If he doesn't beat Vincent by more then 56.4%, then he'll have one hell of a hard time against Sonic/Mega Man. If he defeats Vincent with more then 61.29%, Vincent will be placed below Chief, Donkey Kong, Vercetti, Kefka, and anyone else who scores around those 4. That just doesn't make sense to me.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:31:33 PM | Message Detail
How is Vincent not even close to elite level? Squall was near it last year and Vincent beat him.
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:32:12 PM | Message Detail
"Vincent isn't much stronger than MC though."


Master Chief is low midcard level. He struggled with DK. About half the characters in this contest would destroy him. Maybe even more than that. Cronos performance against MC was pathetic. Link would of gotten about 75% or more.

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Can't think of a good sig.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:33:04 PM | Message Detail
If he doesn't beat Vincent by more then 56.4%, then he'll have one hell of a hard time against Sonic/Mega Man. If he defeats Vincent with more then 61.29%, Vincent will be placed below Chief, Donkey Kong, Vercetti, Kefka, and anyone else who scores around those 4. That just doesn't make sense to me.

Look up how Vercetti did against Crono. And keep in mind that he actually beat Kefka.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:33:24 PM | Message Detail
Master Chief is low midcard level. He struggled with DK. About half the characters in this contest would destroy him. Maybe even more than that.

This isn't 2003. DK would nuke half the characters in the field. Hell, he'd probably give Ryu all he could handle.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: viciousalex | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:33:44 PM | Message Detail
I think MC was underrated and perhaps Crono didn't drop. IMO it's hard to believe he didn't boost with Halo 2.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:34:00 PM | Message Detail
Squall wasn't close. He was at, what, 31% on BL? The cutoff line seems to be at 36% at the very least so far..
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Dark115 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:34:41 PM | Message Detail
Master Chief is low midcard level. He struggled with DK. About half the characters in this contest would destroy him. Maybe even more than that. Cronos performance against MC was pathetic. Link would of gotten about 75% or more.

MC's numbers have been all over the place so to call him low midcard is kinda off. The struggle with DK did look bad on him although due to the Nintendo boost DK could have risen quite a bit. Let's wait to judge him until Crono gets knocked out first please

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http://users.ign.com/collection/Dark115.
Most Wanted: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (GameCube), Soul Calibur III (PS2)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:34:50 PM | Message Detail
Wow, someone I've never even seen gets it right. Halo 2 was just barely enough to contain the Nintendo boost.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:34:53 PM | Message Detail
My mistake. Forgot to add in the DK boost. >_>

My point still stands, just without Kefka/Vercetti.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:36:14 PM | Message Detail
Just keep stalling him Snake.
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:36:24 PM | Message Detail
We're talking about a boost of such proportions that it makes Kirby a near-elite, here. Why DK couldn't take a great leap forward, I have no idea.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Cavalier Lowen | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:36:36 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I agree, Nintendo boost+Halo 2 explains how both DK and MC incresed. As for the CATS match, he will always have his die-hards, while MC will always have his anti-votes, those two together makes that match closer than it should've been.
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Economic Left/Right: 7.50
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 0.26
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:36:37 PM | Message Detail
Snake gains 16. I think it's safe to say that barring interjection from CJayC, this one is over.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:36:45 PM | Message Detail
Wow, someone I've never even seen gets it right. Halo 2 was just barely enough to contain the Nintendo boost.

Yeah, that's a good way to put it.

*points to new sig*
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Vote for Mario, this year's contest champion!
Mega Man > Sonic
From: FFaddict1313 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:38:35 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: FFaddict1313 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:39:08 PM | Message Detail
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:36:24 PM | #327
We're talking about a boost of such proportions that it makes Kirby a near-elite, here. Why DK couldn't take a great leap forward, I have no idea.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.


Kirby also had Canvas Curse...
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I'm getting a Mac OSX tomorrow. What will I be able to do with it?- Kijunaa
Not right-click.-Villainous Mr Bucket
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:39:33 PM | Message Detail
Kirby also Canvas Curse...

DK's had commercials with Good Charlotte. GAME!
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Dark115 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:39:41 PM | Message Detail
Dk had Donkey Konga and Jungle Beat
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http://users.ign.com/collection/Dark115.
Most Wanted: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (GameCube), Soul Calibur III (PS2)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:39:47 PM | Message Detail
In retrospect, those who called Dante the weakest 1-seed before the contest, let's give ourselves a cookie. I guessed it for the wrong reasons, but I was still right.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:40:15 PM | Message Detail
I doubt bongo games would help DK as much as Canvas Curse would help Kirby.
From: FFaddict1313 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:41:03 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:41:19 PM | Message Detail
Well, they've both been lauded as highly entertaining and loved by those who played them. Same fight I guess.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:43:26 PM | Message Detail
Just caught Super Luigi saying Tifa gave Sonic a run for his money in another topic. Opinions? I say blowout, SSBM/MGS2-style.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:45:27 PM | Message Detail
Well,She did somewhat, I mean she did keep it pretty close for quite some time..
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:45:38 PM | Message Detail
While Snake nearly choking here is pretty disappointing... Kirby looking to be capable of taking out Zelda makes it worth it.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:46:10 PM | Message Detail
Tifa never came close.
From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:47:13 PM | Message Detail
I could have swore that Tifa was within the hundreds for most of the night vote...
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:47:22 PM | Message Detail
That shouldn't even matter, Sonic has one of the worst night votes out there to begin with. That's like saying Ryu gave him a big scare because he was actually leading in the opening hours.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: swirldude | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:49:42 PM | Message Detail
OMG RYU LEAD?!
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So, if someone says "Who are The Patriots?" people will be able to answer "Oakland"? ~paperwarrior
From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:51:31 PM | Message Detail
Super Luigi, no offense, but your posts are asinine. Stop. For the love of God.
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"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 96/104, Predicted Winner: Crono
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:52:00 PM | Message Detail
Match 59: (2) Crono vs. (5) Vincent Valentine

Past Performances

Crono


Summer 2005
Beat Zidane Tribal, 76.72% - 23.28%
Beat Tommy Vercetti, 70.85% - 29.15%
Beat Master Chief, 61.29% - 38.71%

Win - Lose Record
12-3

Vincent Valentine

Summer 2005
Beat Sarah Kerrigan, 79.00% - 21.00%
Beat Dante Sparda, 54.00% - 46.00%
Beat Squall Leonhart, 50.59% - 49.41%

Win - Lose Record
3-0

Analysis

Vincent is so far the only character left in this contest not to be defeated, but after this match things will change. Vincent is the last non-noble nine characters to perform this round, but unlike Bowser Vincent has no chance in winning. I think his matches against Dante and Squall proved that.

Crono’s performance against Master Chief was very bad. Crono’s highest percent on him is what I thought he’ll get once the day vote was over. To say Master Chief didn’t gain from Halo 2 is dumb, but can DK, SF and CATS gain that much as well as MC. I do think he did gain, but not by that much. Well could Crono have dropped? I don’t really think so because that would put Vercetti at around fodder. What I think is that Master Chief can’t really blow characters away (unless they also have a lot of anti-votes), but Master Chief himself won’t get destroyed. I think Link himself would have a hard time doubling MC.

Like I though Vincent struggled against Squall. The match could’ve been much better, but at least the beginning was very good. If anyone thinks that Vincent is an elite character is kidding them selves. A low near-elite would be the highest I rank him now.

Many people are warranting Crono’s bad performance to a Crono fall. With Frog’s and Magus’ bad performances this year it’s not hard to see why they believe so. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was mostly a MC gain. I expect Crono to perform at around what he did the MC, whether this board likes it or not.

I find it sad that Crono would most likely have less than 30% of the people predicting him to make it to the final 4. In 2k2 it was expected, but after two close matches against Mario and another one where he beat him, he must have some kind of strength. Then again he has people like Master Chief and Vercetti in his part of the bracket and we all know how much the casuals like them.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Crono over Janus “Magus” Zeal (sad)

charmander6000’s Prediction: Crono wins, 60.89% - 39.11%

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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:54:49 PM | Message Detail
Heh heh, Vincent, the only undefeated character left...

And the vote just diped down under 1100. Break that 1000 mark, Bowser!
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Vote for Mario, this year's contest champion!
Mega Man > Sonic
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:54:59 PM | Message Detail
Funny how you should bring up how the casuals like Vercetti, because in terms of overall bracket picks Kefka decimated him. Now why would so many people pick Kefka over Crono after the 2003 bloodbath I have no idea.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: swirldude | Posted: 9/14/2005 4:55:39 PM | Message Detail
Snake won by 9! That bastard!

I sense 1100 Vote Barrier.
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So, if someone says "Who are The Patriots?" people will be able to answer "Oakland"? ~paperwarrior
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