Vlado’s Analysis

Some think that Bowser can achieve the upset and become the one to break the Noble Nine myth. Well, after Snake's convincing win over Zelda, I don't think that's possible. Not to mention the following ass kicking that Snake gave Sora. Sure, the picture favoured him a good deal, unlike this one, but the result was just way bigger than I expected. While we're on the subject of that picture, I must say that was the best picture we've ever seen in a contest match. Again, much unlike this one. Either way, Snake proved his worth. People expected him to make an early exit against Zelda, but now it seems he'll make his way to a match with Mario, which, of course, will be an inevitable loss for him. Final Four would be an accomplishment suitable for Snake. If it were up to me, he'd even make the final match of the regular tournament.

Bowser won an incredibly easy division, where his only potential competition, in Tidus, was obliterated by Kirby before they even met. Bowser then beat Kirby in a close match, but without dropping the lead or giving Kirby a chance to come back for a single second. Basically, Bowser has only been in incredibly clear matches for the whole year. In the villain contest, he beat some fodder, then got owned by Sephiroth, and here, he beat some unimpressive opponents, too, and will now lose to Snake. Simply, Snake is better recognized, and is a hero. Being a villain rarely helps in these contests, and we saw how Samus beat Ganondorf. As long as the two opponents' respective games are both popular enough, the hero will always defeat the villain. There's one exception to that rule, but that exception is in its own bracket now.

Anyway, why would more people support Bowser against Snake than they would Zelda? Both are Nintendo, both are in SSBM, sure, Bowser has more of the "old school" factor, but does it matter all that much? In any case, Zelda is a sexy elf girl, while Bowser is an ugly oversized spiked turtle. The Legend of Zelda series is also considerably more popular than the Super Mario Brothers series here. Despite everything, I have a theory that girls simply don't get as much support here as they should (unless they look like robots), so I expect Bowser to do just a little better than Zelda. Not to mention that the pic mostly favours him, despite the nice approach of using an old school Metal Gear quote in the background.

Predicted percentage: Solid Snake with 53.17%.

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SC2K5 Score: 85/96
Today's Pick: Mario

Thus, in my laziness, I came up with a mathematically perfect formula to determine who wins this match: [(N - 3)^coin flip] / Snake's Sprite.

It says Bowser wins with 53.67% >_>

Does not compute.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

While we certainly don't know if Mario's rSFFing Mario, I'm rather convinced that rSFF can happen now. I do think Mario would only be a little bit ahead of Samus at best, and possibly a little behind Samus in strength. If you decrease Mario just a little bit he'd already be below Samus, and I guarantee Mario wouldn't suddenly lose a 20% vote spread from that...

I think Sora could potentially be rSFFed, given the right opponent...Aeris doubled Sora, yet Aeris isn't all that much stronger. (of course, we don't know where Sora stood in SC2K3, but probably not much different from SC2K4)

Honestly, Sora's performance this contest surprises me the most. I just don't know how that happened, with all indications that the kid was on the rise.

Pic factor, remember? I think a character taking advantage of the environment would have a bigger impact than one character blasting another, personally.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I do think Mario would only be a little bit ahead of Samus at best,

I agree with that too.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

"I'm rather convinced that rSFF can happen now."


I'll believe that when Mario gets 60% on Link. >_>

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Can't think of a good sig.

I don't think you go from 50/50 to 60/40 solely because of SFF. To bring up Aeris/Sora, 2k4 Sora would be expected to get 44.09% on 2k3 Aeris; they aren't exactly equal. And this is Samus we're talking about; the same one that supposedly resisted SFF against Link. I can't really give a number for Mario, but I find it very hard to believe that he couldn't grab at least 53% on Samus without SFF.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I certainly believe it's a very real possibility that Mario is benefiting greatly from SFF here. When I saw the results, that's exactly what hit me. I could see Mario barely ahead of Samus and not much more. It never seemed like it was very "out there" at all either--like I was believing something only to help out a future match.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

"And this is Samus we're talking about; the same one that supposedly resisted SFF against Link."

You probably shouldn't listen to cn or Slow on that matter.

"but I find it very hard to believe that he couldn't grab at least 53% on Samus without SFF."

Agreed, but I don't think she'd give Sephiroth quite the run for his money we would have previously expected.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Great thing about the next match is that we could get a clue on how much SFF there is between Mario and Bowser. If Bowser loses to Snake, and Mario beats him, you can take that spread and plug it into the 2004 stats. That way, you can solve a few problems from there.

OMG, did I just mention stats? I'm going to hell aren't I?
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*

Poor Kids..

Snake > Mario > = Bowser

Mario = Bowser

Just Wait and See =/.
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 30/32
Rank : 42/33793 Today: Mario Tomorrow: Zero

I'd love to see Solid duke it out with Mario vote-for-vote, but Mario still must win.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

It will be the greatest day in the history of GameFAQs if Snake makes it to the Finals.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

The only thing that could have been better is if Knuckles had made it, too.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Mario = Bowser? Hyuck! Kirby will definitely give Mario a run for his money! Infact, Kirby > Samus

tag
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VOTE: BOWSER in the Summer Contest

This is the first time I got to the site all day and i just want to say......


HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA !

To all you people who thought Samus had a chance...

I'm actually hoping that Bowser can pull the upset tomorrow. He has a LOT going for him, including, but not limited to:

pic factor
dream match factor
fanboy factor

and everyone's favorite...






















the jug factor (yes, bowser has breasts)
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"I ish the Weedle...who shall evolve to Beedrill, and kick Butterfree's arse!"

Dream match factor..?

Dream match factor..?

Agreed; Bowser/Mario is no dream match. Mostly as it's already happened, and also, being a total landslide victory for Mario kinda takes the shine off it a little.

Though their match *did* help show Bowser doesn't parasite near as much off his chief series & hero as does Ganondorf. It'd be more interesting to see how well Snake does relative to the series' hero as to it's villain.

Though Bowser racking up a miracle would be sweet, too. ^_^
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run

I'd rather see Solid Snake rank ahead of Samus in the stats myself...
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

I'd rather see the Dream and Gear divisions looks absolutely pathetic in the stats.
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BertTheOne | Can't hurt this Bert
Nominate Jay Solano & Ifnkovhgroghprm for SC2K6!

Nah, SFF sucks and I prefer to avoid it whenever possible. Squall/Vincent might be the only time you ever see a tight SFF match.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

I wasn't here for the Mega Man Vs Yoshi match, but does anyone think something went wrong in that match or something?

Also one more thing, Ocelot through Pac-man, Yoshi does way better than what Bowser did in Spring.. o_O

Mega Man overperformed on Yoshi, who overperformed on Pac-Man. That's my best guess.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Random fact: Whoever wins Mario vs. Crono ALWAYS loses the next round with a percentage in the high 30s. Prepare to see the entire main bracket look like crap.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

Yeah, the winner of this contest is going to do down in the ToC opener. Then again, that was the reason Clinkeroth was removed from the regular bracket...so someone else could win a contest.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

Tsk tsk tsk. Seriously, Mario looks like he could give Seph the fight of his life.

And in my book, Mario (or whoever finds a way to get past him before the ToC) will never be anything more than a paper champion. The real champ will be either Link or Cloud, and we know it.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

Duh... but we need that to keep the most people possible happy. We could do these contests for a decade and be left with just those two as "real" champions and we'd lose a lot of people because of it. It's the only way.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I'm goin' to bed (though I mmiigghhtt be back on to see the start of Solid/Bowser)...Mario will have 55% of the brackets on his side to get to the Final Four.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Dream match factor..?

mario vs bowser isn't the dream match.....Mario vs Sonic is the dream match *prays*
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Sonic The Hedgehog's road to the best final possible:
20XX Division Champ: (1) MegaMan

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=6&topic=23512448

I don't think anybody has said anything about this yet. Should we start a chat room or something to discuss the match while the boards are down?
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''

Oh, dear...well, maybe that'll be for the best. I don't want to be around here if the unthinkable happens... =/
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Let's go Bowser! <3 <3


A Bowser win puts me in a good position to finish with a top spot in this year's contest--I'm already going to be on the leaderboard here soon, under the name "Tatsumaki_Kyaku." =D

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

Too bad I have to fall off for that to happen... Oh well. And hey, they have ads for serenity going now. Awesome... click click!
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Mario with 59.99% of the brackets.
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Summer Contest 2005 Winner: Mario
Mario will SFF Samus, and pull it out against Crono.

I saw that earlier, TRE. It's disappointing.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars

Eh, guess it has to go soon...Mario with 52% of the brackets?
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I think he'll have well over 60%, myself.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars

I'm lowballing it because of all the board brackets.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I'm assuming the boards went down before the match began.

Anyway, looks like Bowser might be coming back.
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George Romero > You.

I'm assuming the boards went down before the match began.

Anyway, looks like Bowser might be coming back.
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George Romero > You.

Let's face it. Board 8 got utterly owned this year.
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Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfic: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579546
End of message. ~ Garsha

Let's face it. Board 8 got utterly owned this year.
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Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfic: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579546
End of message. ~ Garsha

Glad this is back now. About time, I say; damn boards going out and all.


Bowser's trying to make this interesting; if he keeps the after-school vote goin', he just might take this one home afterall...

...who would take Solid Snake over Ganondorf if Solid got a normal picture of him?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Yay. We're back. >_>

GO GO GO BOWSER!!

I've been following this like crazy for the past few hours and it has been killing me that the boards have been down.

With the afterschool vote in swing, Bowser is cutting the lead down fast! 200 votes in hour, and he just keeps increasing

GO BOWSER!
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moderation history: 9/19/04 to 8/28/05 - completely clean
8/29 to present - 12KL, 1NKL (as of now)

Aaaaand the Noble Nine stays alive for another contest. I hate being so right all the time.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.