Vincent will get 40% or so on Crono. Master Chief won't be outranking him.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Vincent will keep Crono under 60%.
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Damn, 2 seconds off. So close... could have been the truest same time post ever.
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

But see, that's the thing... What do X-stats have to do with Bowser's direct performance on Sephiroth? We didn't have ANY good data on Bowser since 2k3 in his one bad match against Cloud... And I'd think "lol x-stats" would apply more to those holding him at that value rather than judging him by how he has been performing THIS year.

Hell, Bowser's performance in the Spring should have been an indication that Mario would be on an absolute tear this year. I think the whole "lol x-stats" thing is getting rather absurd. You can make plenty of judgements just by looking at how a character is performing...
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Match 58: (1) Solid Snake vs. (3) Bowser

Past Performance

Solid Snake

Summer 2005
Beat Manny Calavera, 84.09% - 15.91%
Beat Zelda, 54.41% - 45.91%
Beat Sora, 65.26% - 34.74%

Win - Lose Record
12-3

Bowser

Summer 2005
Beat Chun-Li, 65.90% - 34.10%
Beat Ryu Hoshi, 58.98% - 41.02%
Beat Kirby, 52.12% - 48.88%

Win - Lose Record
9-3

Analysis

Only two non-noble nine characters remain. Bowser has the best chance of eliminating the noble nine. Even though he does have the best chance I find that people are just over hyping this match. Even though I don’t think Bowser has much of a chance he won’t go down that easily.

Last round Snake surprised most of us by totally destroying Sora. If it wasn’t for the day vote he would’ve doubled him. Beating Sora as bad as Samus did was no easy task, but by looking at today’s match isn’t helping him much. Snake has most likely gained from MGS3 and may be stronger than in 2k3. Bowser on the other hand didn’t really look that impressive against Kirby. If you think about it Kirby had more reason to gain than Bowser since Kirby has gotten some new games over the past year.

The biggest reason people say that Bowser would lose is because they don’t see Kirby being stronger then Zelda. Well I never thought Kirby would beat Tidus by that much, but he did. Just because something doesn’t feel right doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

The voters have changed over the past year. More casual gamers are now voting and less hardcore fans are voting less on this site. If Bowser is going to benefit from this I don’t see why Solid Snake wouldn’t either, it won’t be as much as Bowser, but Snake will/has benefited by the new voters.

Now we’ll answer the old question, how much is the picture worth? As you may know the sprite round is this round and Solid Snake got a Metal Gear picture. It wasn’t as bad as the one he had against Frog, but Bowser’s picture is vastly superior. I don’t think the picture is worth as much as some people say it is, but if Snake loses in a close one tomorrow I’m going to blame it on the picture.

The noble nine has never lost a match to someone outside of the group. Like many people said if they were to go down it would be because of Solid Snake. Snake was supposed to have three close matches, but he’s already gone through two of them. Bowser should do better than Zelda, but I don’t think Snake’s lead will be in any danger especially since he’s getting the night vote.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Solid Snake over Tidus

charmander6000’s Prediction: Solid Snake wins, 53.12% - 46.88%

---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

I really don't think Vincent will put up 40% on Crono.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

"in his one bad match against Cloud"

That's a bad match? Maybe a dozen characters could do better... and that's a bad match?
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I really don't see why he wouldn't. If Squall is around his 2003 number (which honestly makes the most sense to me), Vincent should get around 40% on Crono, and that's even assuming he's as strong as he was in 2004.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Well, people have been underestimating Vincent since the start, so it's not like your opinion is anything new or valid.
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

And to keep on the current topic, something tells me that Vincent will easily break 40%.

On a sidenote, I finally got to playing MGS2. Why am I not impressed with the game at all? I'm already on the plant chapter after a very lackluster first portion of the game. Somebody please tell me that there is something in this game that makes it better. Otherwise, it is turning out to be one of the most overrated games I've played... <_<
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

The main reason why is because Crono has his sprite.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

I always assumed that "lol xstats" meant that paying attention to past results was idiotic. that's all the x-stats are, after all - a simple mathematical way to express how everyone did in a particular contest. to say they have no accuracy is to say that previous results have zero predictive value.

---
.

Nah, no overperformance for Crono. He didn't get one against Mario. I think he's too strong for a picture to affect him strongly one way or the other.

And Metal Gear Solid 2 picks up considerably once you get past all that bomb disposal crap. I hate that part.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 9/13/2005 5:19:25 PM | Message Detail | #205
I think if the x-stats can teach us one thing, it's that nothing is absolute in these contests. ...So maybe, uh, we should stop making assumptions like "there's no way Mario's going to beat Sephiroth".

You win the internet.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars

and I think Crono/Vincent will look a lot like Samus/Ganon.
---
.

I'd laugh if Mario's first match to hit under 60% was in the finals or against Sephiroth (he will beat Sephiroth btw)
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

And I do think Master Chief is as strong as his match vs. Crono suggests. I don't think Crono dropped, especially after his slaughtering of Vercetti in the previous round.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Crono/Vincent will be Chun Li/Bowser. Crono has his sprite.

GAME OVAH.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 93/104 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)

Crono's doesn't have a particularly good sprite though.

It'll be more like Snake vs Zelda, IMO.
---
Opus 13 in C minor.

The idea of DK being above 30% on BL is still hard to accept. I'm not quite sure I buy that being legit for the Chief.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/13/2005 5:35:43 PM | Message Detail
The idea of DK being above 30% on BL is still hard to accept. I'm not quite sure I buy that being legit for the Chief.

Neither did Luigi ranking above Yoshi, but it happened. Or GFNW ranking above half the contest.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Nor am I quite ready to accept Face CATS as non-fodder.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Neither did Luigi ranking above Yoshi, but it happened.

No, it didn't.
---
Opus 13 in C minor.

Neither did Luigi ranking above Yoshi, but it happened.

That's not Yoshi's legit strength against Mega Man either.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

And transience, you will be happy to know (I assume) I have been using your spoiler-free Shadow Hearts walkthrough. In the process of finishing up the Temple Ruins, about six hours into the game. Good work sir, you have spoiled nothing, and helped with a couple rather challenging boss fights, when teaming it with you Boss FAQ.

I have actually died twice, something I have not done in an RPG in, well, I don't even know how long. Thus far, the game has been awesome, and Yuri has some classic perv lines.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 93/104 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)

Nor am I quite ready to accept Face CATS as non-fodder.

I'm also not ready to accept GFNW as Kefka-level.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Then you understand the concept of overperformances. Good.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

It's all Donkey Konga, fo sho. Give 'im some bongos and suddenly he's halfway to god. Seriously, that's the only explanation for MC. Anyone want to buy that and my bridge?
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Master Chief is such an oddball in these things.

Anyway, I'm missing writeups for Samus/Frog, Auron/Ganon and Alucard/Sora. If anyone feels like writing, feel free. If not, I'll have to wing it come analysis time.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars

Then you understand the concept of overperformances. Good.

I also understand the concept of Halo 2 and the Nintendo Boost.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Sorry, I don't quite believe Face CATS jumped 3-4% over the course of a couple of months.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

ha, I wrote that thing for myself, mainly because the temple ruins used to piss me the hell off. glad to see someone else actually uses it. also glad to see someone enjoyin' SH1, in my mind the best PS2 game around. Yuri being the weakest link of this contest is a sad, sad thing.

---
.

The temple ruins weren't all that bad. *shrugs*
---
I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Those things are confusing as hell. And without the use of items/skills, I am not a huge fan of just roaming around aimlessly hunting for everything.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 93/104 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/13/2005 5:41:15 PM | Message Detail
Sorry, I don't quite believe Face CATS jumped 3-4% over the course of a couple of months.

I also don't believe in Master Chief not getting anything from Halo 2.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

the last part of the temple ruins always messes me up. it's not like I can't figure it out, but it sucks nonetheless.

and yeah, as I mentioned in my boss faq, sealing items and special attacks basically ruins any kind of strategy. you're either high enough in level or you're going to die. stupid, stupid move by the developers. fortunately, it picks up bigtime after that.
---
.

Hmmm...perhaps 3%-4% of the votes in MC's matches are anti-votes?

Nah, I'm not gonna buy that afterall, not yet.....
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

also don't believe in Master Chief not getting anything from Halo 2.

Face CATS does move him up some, actually.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

Face CATS does move him up some, actually.

Doesn't it predict Master Chief/Crono correctly?
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Actually, it has Crono getting 66.01% on the Chief.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

No, Face CATS only moves him up 1%.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

I don't think Master Chief would only get a 1% boost from one of the most talked about games of the year.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

what's wrong with just saying "MC is nonlinear" and letting him go? metroid has more linearity than he does.
---
.

I like the idea of allowing Crono to remain at his normal place regardless of Master Chief >_<
---
Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/13/2005 5:58:55 PM | #294
I like the idea of allowing Crono to remain at his normal place regardless of Master Chief >_<
---
Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

Yeah, but then Vincent gets killed.
---
I'm getting a Mac OSX tomorrow. What will I be able to do with it?- Kijunaa
Not right-click.-Villainous Mr Bucket

Not necessarily. His match with Megaman/Sonic will tell all.
---
Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

Wow, haven't posted today. I was behind on these topics and had to catch up with reading half of the last one and this one.

Well, *Chucks bracket out window* GO MARIO!

There's no way he's not going to win this thing now, as it's been obviously stated. He's got this as deadlocked as it can get. And I'm also willing to bet that he'd beat Sephiroth now too. It'd be awesome if the match reversed itself from what happened in 2003....

And, I tried to make a good match picture of Crono vs. MM, I really did. I suck so badly at Photoshop, never really learned how to do it. I can envision what I want, but can never come up with the finish product. I came up with this: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v236/bigkevinm84/contest-picture.gif so far, but yeah, I don't know exactly how to do the backround or anything... I think I'll just sit back and watch the Photoshop pros do the match pics.
---
You fought well, Yoshi =(. We'll see you next year.
Current score: 83. Today's pick: Samus

Gear/Dream Division Round 4 - Match 58 – (1)Solid Snake vs. (3)Bowser

Snake - Equipped with **** camouflage.
Round 1 – vs. Manny (Snake: 84.09% - Manny: 15.91%)
Round 2 – vs. Zelda (Snake: 54.41% - Zelda: 45.59%)
Round 3 – vs. Sora (Snake: 65.26% - Sora: 34.74%)

Looks like Alucard’s Plan was to make himself, along with his opponent look horrible again.

Bowser - A fire breathing turtle who throws hammers. Makes sense to me!
Round 1 – vs. Chun-Li (Bowser: 65.90% - Chun-Li: 34.10%)
Round 2 – vs. Ryu (Bowser: 58.98% - Ryu: 41.02%)
Round 3 – vs. Kirby (Bowser: 52.12% - Kirby: 47.88%)

Kirby really out-did himself here. 48% on Bowser!

>.> <.< *DUN DUN DUN*

It’s time for an episode of….CONSPIRIACY THEATHER

Alright readers, I’m back, and ready to share some more conspiracies with you guys. Oh, I’ve got a good one today. It deals with Snake, Bowser, and their match against each other. Mmm, I can already smell the theories brewing.

Alright, look at this. In most of Snake’s matches, look at the picture he has received. First, there were Metal Gear Acid pictures in his first two matches. One was against Manny, and the other Zelda. CJayC has written a FAQ for Grim Fandango, and we all know of Ceej’s love for all things Nintendo. But here’s the interesting thing, when he faces Sora, and gets his best pic so far, he blows Sora out of the water. Suspicious? You know it. Now he faces Bowser and gets another horrible sprite pic, with “I feel asleep.”, a mistake in Metal Gear, while Bowser not only gets a clear looking picture of him, but also…the Home Field Advantage Factor, now called HFAF. We remember what Frog did on Snake’s crappy sprite, so what will Bowser do? Lord knows, and I know. I see through your tricks and lies Ceej. I’m on to you man!

And that, concludes today’s episode of….CONSPIRACY THEATER

Where does your tax money go? I’ll tell you. It goes towards a secret government project. They’re trying to really freeze hell over.

*DUN DUN DUN*

Now, you saw a little something up there called the HFAF, or Home Field Advantage Factor. This has really come into play over the past few days, and made a major impact on the Contest. After showing some people the Snake/Bowser pic, we asked for their opinions on what they thought of the HFAF. Here are some of their responses.

Random Guy: Hey!! I remember Bowser in the Castle! I’d so totally vote for that!

Random Girl: Eww, what’s that smudge on the pic messing up Bowser’s Castle? Bowser all the way, baby!

Jesus: It’s Bowser LOL!

Alright, Snake vs. Bowser. Up until Round 3, this match was looking pretty good on paper. It’s been debated since before the Contest even started. People were seriously doubting Snake’s strength after his performance in 2004, and Bowser looked HOT after SpC2K5. Many people thought Bowser would beat Snake, and that the Noble Nine would be ended this Contest. Well, we stepped into the fire, and some people got burned.

Geek: HAHA! I feel asleep! I remember that, good times. But dude, Bowser’s home field! He gets my vote.

Billy the Average Bracketmaker: Bowser will own that n00b, 65-35!

Snake started out looking a little weak against Manny. I mean, Shake single-handedly got him in the Contest, and Snake only got 84% on him. Snake then faced Zelda in Round 2, and some thought the Twilight Princess had it, but Snake surprised and beat her 55-45. Snake then went on to destroy Sora, and get 65% on him, which is close to what Samus got last year. Bowser had a much tougher path, but still brezzed through it. He easily beat Chun-Li, stomped Ryu to the ground and got a whopping 59% on him, which is more than Sonic, Snake and Samus got on him. Then he lost to Kirby in a close match.

Clinkeroth: We love Mario Bros., and just love to face Bowser in his castle, Bowser FTW!

George Romero: I single-handedly brought Snake this far in the Contest, but now that Bowser’s pic is his home field, I’m “helping” him.

CJayC: I made the pic, of course I’m voting for Bowser!

Well, Kirby > Snake or Zelda > Bowser. We could be looking at one of those results after this match. Bowser crushed Ryu in Round 2, but it’s not hard to believe he and KOS-MOS were overrated in 2004, since they both appeared to have fallen. His performance against Kirby was also pretty lackluster. Snake on the other hand had shown that he is in no position to lose his Noble Nine status yet. 55% on Zelda, and 65% on Sora is no joke. Snake means business here. Bowser should make it good, but I’m thinking Snake has got this in the box. (Get it! Get it!!! I knew you would)

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 52% - Bowser: 48%



Soul’s Analysis

SUPA STEALTHY ROUND 3 RESULTS!

Snake snuck by Sora: 65.26% - 34.74%

Bowsa burned Kirby: 52.12% - 47.88%

Let's go Bowsa! Let's go!

Yes, if you can't tell by now, I love the Nintendo characters in this contest. I'm a big fan of Bowser, and I'm hoping he can pull off a great upset. Of course, that's not looking good after round 2. But, there is still hope. Sprite round = A bad picture for Snake = BOWSA HAS THE ADVANTAGE!

Anyways, like I said before, Snake just absolutely shocked the hell out of us in round 3 against Sora. Call it whatever you want, Snake just absolutely pwned Sora badly. I don't know if this is a Sora decline or a huge boost for Snake, but this is not looking good for the King. King Koopa, that is (pfft, the only King worth talking about anyway). Add in the fact that Bowser failed to live up to expectations against Kirby as well.

When all hope was lost for Bowser, the picture came up. Bowser looked mediocre, but Snake looked like absolute garbage! Bowser also has the background from his game on his side, while Snake has a joke that barely anyone knows of (I have no clue why that's there, really). If the picture makes a big factor for the match, then Bowser will win this one.

Speaking of which, it's hard to believe that Bowser will just roll over and die. You all are witnessing what Mario is doing to Samus. You've all witnessed how close Luigi got against Tifa. Hell, if Yoshi faced Sonic instead of Mega Man, I'm sure he would have surprised almost everyone as well. Of course, the little dino got screwed over by facing MM, and consequentially, was defeated a lot worse then what he should have been defeated, for some reason... More on that in the Sonic/Mega Man match though.

As we come down to it, this is basically the last chance for a character to upset a Noble Nine member. Snake was the weakest NN member last year, and I believe that he is still the weakest. Sure, he may have blown-out Sora, but he got an absolutely amazing picture during that match. I believe that Snake works kind of like Kefka. He'll over-perform with a good picture, but under-perform with a crappy picture. Although I think Snake will take this one, by now means is this match a bye for him. I believe it's going to go wire-to-wire, with Snake eventually winning.

My prediction: Snake wins with 50.99% of the vote.



Outback’s Analysis

As weak as Snake looked last year against Frog with Solid ****, he still won. However, against a stronger opponent, will it go similarly? I think it will be very similar, with only about a 2% difference. Thanks partly to the Nintendo boost and partly to the pic, Bowser ekes out a victory.

Bowser with 50.15%

Ulti’s Analysis


Until Bowser/Kirby and Snake/Sora, it truly looked like Bowser was going to kick Snake's ass. But after Snake's impressive beating of Sora, I'd call this match a tossup.

Thus, in my laziness, I came up with a mathematically perfect formula to determine who wins this match: [(N - 3)^coin flip] / Snake's Sprite.

It says Bowser wins with 53.67% >_>

Prediction: Bowser with 53.67%



Inviso’s Analysis

Well, the elite eight are as most sane people expected, with every single one of the noble nine in the contest making it this far. That only accounts for six spots though. The other two are filled by a contest newbie, the only undefeated character in Gamefaqs history at this point, and Bowser, who makes the elite 8 for his first time ever. Snake thus far has been doing surprisingly well. Round one, he blew out a cult fodder character that made it based purely on Shake’s support. Round two, he had a decently close match with Zelda, while she was coming off not only the Nintendo boost, but also the Twilight Princess hype. And in round 3, with perhaps the most awesome picture since Tetris vs. Pong, Snake blew out Sora and made him look like a complete and total *****. Perhaps Snake has truly increased thanks to MGS3; perhaps he’s just getting his second wind in the contests. Only time will tell.

Bowser on the other hand, had what was considered to be one of the most difficult brackets to predict before the contest started. Tidus, Kirby, Ryu, and to a lesser extent, Rikku and Chun Li, were expected to have damn good chances at winning this division. But of course, Kirby performed poorly against an FF character that no one cares about, Tidus sucked it up against a cult character, and Ryu looked extremely weak against Rikku. Bowser started off strong, almost doubling Chun Li, who many consider to be the second most powerful Street Fighter character. He then went on to nearly break 60% on Ryu, who is the STRONGEST Street Fighter character. And after that, he faced Kirby, a fellow Nintendo character who held his own, but inevitably fell before the Koopa King.

After seeing Bowser and Snake’s third round matches, I’m convinced about what the outcome will be. Bowser performed poorly in a match where he should’ve been able to gain at least SOME SFF. Snake blew out a Square character. Konami finally gets a character to the final 4. If only it could be James. *sigh*

My Bracket: Solid Snake
My Vote: Solid Snake
My Prediction: Solid Snake with 52.50%



Tnote’s Analysis

Well, Snake could not avoid the sprite round. Fortunately, he did not get Solid ****. Unfortunately, Bowser has the home-field (despite being the lower seed), and his kickass sprite. Now, I still doubt Bowser can win this, but if he does, you will be hearing about how it is the picture. And why will you be hearing that? Because it will be because of the picture. The Nintendo boost makes this match closer, but in my mind, avoiding Solid **** means Snake has a date with Mario in the Final Four. Which is what everyone wants anyways, because who wants to see Bowser get pimpslapped by Mario again?

Pick: Snake with 52.83%

Special Note: If Snake somehow beats Bowser worse than he beat Zelda, I may actually just quit trying to predict how matches go, because to me, it is more likely Vincent beats Crono than it is Zelda performs better on Snake than Bowser.