The fact that people are petty enough to mark "Lol, X-stats" only makes today all the sweeter.

I have Mario winning. I have Cloud winning. I went against the X-sts many times, even have criticized them on occasion.

But "Lol, x-stats" is the single most annoying thing to come out of this year's contest. I swear, it has no purpose, is the most ridiculous thing I have heard, and only comes up when something does not go along with the stats. But you better believe when the stats are right you aren't singing this most annoying phrase.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

... Samus, unfortunately, didn't do anything that stuck with people in the last year.

I can see the demo not helping her greatly, but letting her slip some? It could be, I guess, after all, it was just a demo, and also mario has more to benefit from ds voters than samus...but still, I have difficulty thinking samus could go down while nintendo went up.


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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

I just noticed HM has a Reno quote in his sig.

<3
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

Really though, the X-stats bashing and all that such is getting pretty annoying..

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

I think if the x-stats can teach us one thing, it's that nothing is absolute in these contests. ...So maybe, uh, we should stop making assumptions like "there's no way Mario's going to beat Sephiroth".

Granted, Seph will probably take him, but we all thought the same thing before Ocelot vs. Pac-Man too. Mario has looked a lot stronger this year, and in the villain contest, Sephiroth looked a lot weaker. I think we could actually see two good matches in the ToC.

And regarding the strength of Bowser/Ganon... no idea there, really. There are too many characters who have a strength entirely different from last year (Alucard, Sora, Frog, Zero, all the Nintendo characters, Vivi, hell, the majority) to really be sure there. I'd give more credence to spring 2k5 results than last year's results, because A: the spring is closer and will have had a more similar voter pool, and B: The SFF problem last year. In any case, we still have some matches ahead that should give us something of an idea of Bowser, and by association, logically, Ganon.

Honestly, Sora's performance this contest surprises me the most. I just don't know how that happened, with all indications that the kid was on the rise.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

"Good thing Bowser won't beat Snake" people, who are coincidentally enough oftentimes hardcore fans of the Xsts

What the hell, Ulti? Isn't Bowser over Snake an X-Stats creation in the first place because of the Spring Contest? I consider Snake over Bowser to be a "common sense" pick just like Mario over Samus today.

I'm not trying to insult the Samus pickers or the Bowser pickers, but it seems to be that if anything Bowser is the X-Stat fanboy pick.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef

thank god for HM.

those numbers are a bit misleading (hi there, 2k3 being the year of the most votes by far), but here it is per match:

Link: 66689
Cloud: 67614
Seph: 64483
Mega Man: 59372
Mario: 55481
Samus: 54958
Crono: 57048
Snake: 53768
Sonic: 49144


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.

And as far as Samus looking so weak here... Dunno. Could be a lot of SFF. Could be that Mario's having a resurgence. Hell, could even be reverse SFF. All I know is, it probably ain't even close to linear.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

I'm not expecting Sephiroth to do anything like he did in 2003, but you better believe that I think he'll be beating Mario in a similar fashion to how he beat Samus in 2002. If Samus had made it here, that's what I would have expected him to do and that's basically ditto for Mario.


Sephiroth has been one who people are just dying to see lose to someone other than Link or Cloud and that has yet to happen--much like the deal with the Noble Nine. I'm very much one to believe that Sephiroth will continue to beat anyone not named Link or Cloud.

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“A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices themselves for a job. That’s just a fool.” – Reno

So how do you guys think the ToC will go at this point? Will the AC leak effect anything?

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Can't think of a good sig.

Samus getting 70% on Frog should be proof enough that she hasn't dropped. And Sephiroth can certainly win but by no means is it going to be convincing, and I'd put my money on Mario right now.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Just based on how badly Sephiroth crushed Mario two years back, it's hard to believe Mario has come all the way to win a rematch.

Honestly, I think Sephiroth will win 55-45. Mario screws with the stats fairly often, and I think that's because like MC and others with a sort of "legendary" status, he's not very suited to linearity.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

It's funny, right now I'm more afraid of Cloud > Link than Mario > Sephiroth... and Mario > Sephiroth was the "unreasonable pick" before the contest.

Heck, I'm more afraid of Cloud (assuming he beats Link) > Mario than Mario > Sephiroth. I'm thinking Mario will beat Sephiroth easy, after the crap he's been pulling this contest.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef

Even those numbers are misleading, seeing as how they're useless too. =P
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

And I agree with RPGuy on the ideas of "Samus can't have dropped that much, look at what she did to Frog/Yuri/Ganon (well, the last one only if the spring stats are true, which I think they are)."
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

I could say that based on the mere fact that Mario beat Cloud in 2k2 it would be hard to believe that Sephiroth could beat him as badly as he did in 2k3, but, well, KHF happened. If Bowser and Ganondorf can get 40% and 42% I don't see why Mario can't grab at least 47%. I'm about as confident in that as I was that Luigi would break 45% on Tifa.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Crono will win though <_<
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

Samus getting 70% on Frog should be proof enough that she hasn't dropped. And Sephiroth can certainly win but by no means is it going to be convincing, and I'd put my money on Mario right now.

Well, it depends on what you think of Liquid Snake in the Spring Contest. Frog through a static Samus is way ahead of him.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

The people who think Bowser will beat Snake are delusional.

As much as I'd like to see it happen, it's not going to happen. The only reason Ulti is jumping on the Bowser>Snake bandwagon is because he wants to "justify" being an ass about it and gloating all day. But he won't get that chance, of course, because Bowser won't beat Snake.

P.S. That "lol, x-stats" thing became old a month ago. Besides, the people that that saying was invented to make fun of, "x-stat fanboys", don't exist anyway.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

34.5%.

It's Samus' value if you extrapolate her through Frog through Sp2k5 Liquid. Where does this put Mario now (assuming he ends with exactly 60%)?
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

True, but Frog STILL got 48% on Snake last year. Solid **** or not, sprite or not, and novelty or not, that shows he's got some strength there.

Also, MC. He did fairly well against Crono (certainly better than Liquid would be expected to) and Frog could just as easily be at his value.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

You could say all the same things about Magus's 35% on Link, and you know where that got most people.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

trying to prove anything statistically using Frog, LS or MC is sketchy at best. there's no good reading on Samus this year, it's as simple as that.
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.

That's true. That's the much shakier part of the argument.

Though Magus still isn't bad, per se. Even at the rate he showed against Knux, he's basically a low to medium range midcarder. Respectable. I couldn't see someone like Frog falling into the lower half of the rankings after he performed on a practically 2003 Maguslike level last year.

MC's strength, though... that's hard to really explain, if Frog is so weak. Halo 2 boost, maybe. But I doubt that's all of it.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

But yeah, we're going to have absolutely no idea on Samus next year.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

What was 2k4 Master Chief expected to get on Crono?
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

While those numbers are misleading I did them myself over 6 months ago, and I did the votes against each character as well... and I also did it for Ryu, Aeris, Knux, Zero, Bowser, Magus, Tidus and Ganon. No one paid attention then. All I will bring up is the for against ratio of votes as an addition (though the % are slightly off on a few because of miscounts I didn't bother to double check).

Name - % votes in favor (pre-Sp2k)
Sephiroth - 70.58
Link - 69.92
Cloud - 68.43
Crono - 62.91
Mega Man - 62.31
Samus - 60.91
Snake - 60.03
Mario - 58.21
Sonic - 56.98

And it should come as no shock that the near-elite with the highest ratio of votes in their favor for the first 3 contests is none other than Aeris who would be above Mario in the previous list while only Aeris and Zero actually rank ahead of a noble niner in vote ratio.

Either way, even with a few mistakes in there, our top 3 are the top 3 by heads and shoulders.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I can't seem to get a good luminaire effect, either by GISing it or by ripping it from the game directly (like I did with the sprites), so I posit a similar question: Does it look like Crono summoned the lightning or does it look like he's getting hit by it?

http://img365.imageshack.us/img365/7356/megamancrono2ew.jpg
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Very nice^^^
Send it
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"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 96/104, Predicted Winner: Crono

RPGuy, that pic is awesome. Send it.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

I dunno, the lightning seems to plain... doesn't seem to be fair on Crono's side, but I may be biased.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I liked the lightning more, but that picture is sweet. doesn't Crono have some kind of blade beam-like attack? maybe that would work.
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.

Yeah. If I were you I'd use his Slash attack
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

I had a thought, doesn't light shine off of Crono (or from somewhere) when you do lightning 2? Maybe a ligthning 2 sorta look...
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Slash sounds like a very good idea. I'm trying to rip that now.

The problem with Lightning 2 is that Crono faces the player when he does it, and I want him to face Mega Man. It is a cool effect, but I don't think I can get it to work with the picture.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

It's too bad that pic'll be useless when Sonic upsets MM.

From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 9/13/2005 4:58:18 PM | Message Detail
It's too bad that pic'll be useless when Sonic upsets MM.

It's too bad that won't happen.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Well, he can just substitute Super Sonic in place of X.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."

I was just thinking of overlaying the lighting effect on the Crono pic you're already using.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Indeed
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So, if someone says "Who are The Patriots?" people will be able to answer "Oakland"? ~paperwarrior

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/7105/megamancrono6oo.jpg

I think the relative sizes worked out very well.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Cloud and Sephiroth both reduced Auron to the same strength. It follows that Mario and Bowser should reduce Ness to the same strength.

But Cloud reduces Sephiroth far less than Mario reduces Bowser.
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Opus 13 in C minor.

Too bad Crono's face isn't there...
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"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 96/104, Predicted Winner: Crono

I was thinking that Mega Man's beam was going to dwarf Crono's, but that looks surprisingly good. submit it.
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This topic has gone to all hell I see. Now if you took a chance on a Bowser/Snake upset, you're called an X-stats fanboy?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

I'm sorry if that came across as offensive... all I meant to say is that the Spring X-Stats themselves were the main defense in picking Bowser over Snake if you ask me.

I dunno why I quote random stuff like that.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef

This topic has "been to hell" already ever since the Vincent fiasco.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Vincent will rank 10th in the stats. He owns you all.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Crono > Master Chief > Vincent > The Devil Division
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.