agreed. I'd go 58-42, Mario.
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Weve already seen Mario/Bowser before. We havent seen Snake/Mario, Which would be more interesting.
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.

Of course Snake/Mario is more interesting... doesn't mean we have to like Snake or want to see him beat Bowser.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I look forward to laughing at your feeble efforts in MSPAINT.

>:(

Ceej is being mean!

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"Being a Hunter has to be the best job in the world! Well, next to pimp..."

Snake's pic is actually pretty good. Especially the "I FELL ASLEEP!" XD
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Opus 13 in C minor.

WHAT is wrong with you people. mario has no chance against samus.she would vaporize mario before he could do anything. mario would be stardust after samus is finished with him.

Snake/Mario may be more interesting Bowser/Mario, but Bowser beating Snake makes it worth it.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

DAMN YOU BOWSER MARKS, DAMN ULTI, AND DAMN THE PATRIOTS!!!!!
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Well I'm a little late. But on the subject of Kirby I think this is one of those cases where a character legitimately made a huge leap in popularity between one contest and the next. Why? Canvas Curse. Granted new games normally wouldn't make such a huge difference but this is a special case. It is a special case because...

A) This was an exceptional game.
B) The game was for the DS.
C) The game came out for the DS at a time when the system had few good games out.

So you have a ton of people with a shiny new DS and nothing to play on it. When Kirby Canvas Curse comes out it appeals not only to Kirby's established fanbase but to all DS owners. And playing such a great game encouraged some of these gamers who go to gamefaqs to vote for Kirby. And I think this would account for a large part of Kirby's popularity boost. Hopefully Bowser will beat Snake by more than 55% and make Kirby look really good :)
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Deep =/= Likable

Aaaand here comes all of the "Good thing Bowser won't beat Snake" people, who are coincidentally enough oftentimes hardcore fans of the Xsts.

Personally, I don't think anyone is really fanatical about the stats as you complain about. Chichiri uses them, but he always has solid arguments/reasoning behind them. People didn't pick Samus over Mario just because of xsts, at this point in the stats topic, we all know they're not sacred - and they were never treated that way.

And you don't need xsts to see that it's snake's match to lose tomorrow. 60+ on Sora vs 52ish on Kirby...That almost says it all right there. And I have Bowser in my bracket.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

"That sound you hear is a the thump of thousands of brackets to the floor, combined with the loudest Price is Right failure music playable."

What does Bob Barker say to that? The price is WRONG, you LOSE!!!

Well, honestly I think that the reason Mario has done so well is that he's reached a whole new audience through re-release of Super Mario 64 for the DS. The new SM64 is so superior to its counterpart, and is by far the best game for the system right now.

Add the anticipation for Mario 128 and Mario Baseball *snickers heard in room*, and you've got yourself a contest winner. Had the Mario/Shadow match have been held today, Mario would easily double him. Book it, and for god's sake, the x-stats are DEAD
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"I ish the Weedle...who shall evolve to Beedrill, and kick Butterfree's arse!"

I get moderated for disruptive posting, about a post involving X-Stats and SFF, in the CS&D topic? Are you ****ing kidding me?

Sorry, whichever moderator modded me on that. I really am sorry Samus lost, but no need to go on a message purging binge. It's only a popularity contest, after all.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 93/104 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)

The x-stats for last year's x-stats, sure. This year's x-stats would be fairly accurate this year if we held another character contest immediately after this one though. That's what people somehow always fail to realize; the stats are only meant to be good for that year, and some number of changes will ALWAYS occur when you carry it over to the next year.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

While I agree with your evaluation of the impact of Mario's new games and games on the horizon you're wrong about the XStats. This isn't the first time we've had a huge voter shift, and the information from it just goes in with everything else. No one who uses them assumes that they will be perfect from year to year, far from it infact, and it's expected that tihngs should change from year to year. The fact that the 2k4 stats actually fel lin line pretty well with the 2k3 stats shows you just how bad for gaming that time period was. It's clear that late 2k3/early 2k4 produced nothing of note for us as gamers. Next year there will be massive shifts in the stats again, it just happens. The stats are a guide, you have to climb the mountain yourself.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

"I get moderated for disruptive posting, about a post involving X-Stats and SFF, in the CS&D topic? Are you ****ing kidding me?"

lol x-stats is a fad.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Let's assume the contest concludes like this:

Snake defeats Bowser without trouble, Crono beats up Vincent, and Mega Man/Sonic duke it out. Mario defeats Snake and wins the tournament over the Crono/Sonic/Mega Man survivor. Link wins the ToC over Sephiroth/Mario (take your pick here; it should be close regardless).

Now, would the 2005 Summer Contest be remembered more as the contest where Nintendo flexed its muscles or the one where the Noble Nine reminded us all why we granted them that title in the first place?
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

It'll be the first, but should be the second.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/13/2005 4:52:02 PM | Message Detail

lol x-stats is a fad.

But I directly said 'LOL XStats indeed,' followed by a post saying why there is nothing wrong with them! Bah, whatever.

Snake for the win!

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 93/104 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)

It'll be the first, but should be the second.

Bingo. As much as I don't like the idea of the Noble Nine, what with their controversies and all, they've been standing the test of time like nobody's business and have been putting up rather than shutting up.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Well, the 2nd and 4th posts were "lol x-stats" and they're gone but then Ulti's isn't... so who knows. Guess that one of yours shouldn't have been deleted, all things said.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Yeah, Noble 9 = underrated. Oh, and is anyone else finding it funny that we will likely have our 3rd new 4th place character in 3 years but that the top 3 remains unchanged?
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Mario > Sephiroth this year. BOOK IT
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

Don't kid yourself.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I think it will (and should) be the first, just like 2k3 is the Square year. when one company dominates the contest, it's going to be remembered for it.

the NN are very high on my list, though. gotta give them their props, Bower/Snake notwithstanding.
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If Bowser and Ganny can keep him under 60, Mario can beat him dammit.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

It's hardly remembered for being Square's year... in fact it's remembered for being the standard.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Well, now you're making the assumption that third place isn't up for grabs. Mario's match with SFF!Ness (read: 2k3) puts him at 44.88%BL; Mario's match with 20XXDF Zero puts him at 45.72%, and his match today puts him over Cloud. To add to that, Samus did better on Ganondorf than Sephiroth did and now Mario has 60% against her. You can question each of those points, but put together they paint a strong, consistent picture of Mario over Sephiroth.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Don't fool yourself. That Ganon match was almost directly respensible for the majority of us losing 1-7 points on Magus. That Bowser match is costing me 8 points, in all liklihood. Those were flukes, and Ocelot proves it.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

To throw in another point, Mario is currently expected to get 70.13% on Auron. Sephiroth got 67.70% on Auron. Both of those are SFF situations, yes, but it's merely more evidence on the pile.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I'm not ready to give Mario the championship just yet.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

that's not much to be remembered for - that's like saying it's the contest that went the way it should have gone. (except for you, Magus and Shadow) when I think 2k3, I think Cloud, Seph and Squall. when I think of 2k5, I'll think of stuff like Ness, Zelda, Kirby and Bowser.
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Don't fool yourself. That Ganon match was almost directly respensible for the majority of us losing 1-7 points on Magus. That Bowser match is costing me 8 points, in all liklihood. Those were flukes, and Ocelot proves it.

You're kidding yourself if you don't think Ganondorf is as strong as his match with Sephiroth suggests. He got 55% on Auron; that should be proof enough.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

"Well, now you're making the assumption that third place isn't up for grabs."

It's not.

"Mario's match with SFF!Ness (read: 2k3) puts him at 44.88%BL; Mario's match with 20XXDF Zero puts him at 45.72%, and his match today puts him over Cloud."

Mario would SFF Ness more than Bowser would; that's an incorrect Zero; SFF.

"To add to that, Samus did better on Ganondorf than Sephiroth did"

1) SFF
2) Ganon out did himself on Seph

"You can question each of those points"

I won't, I'll disregard them completely

"but put together they paint a strong, consistent picture of Mario over Sephiroth."

While themselves being inconsistent. Sure, you get to prove your point, it doesn't mean you're doing things the right way. Besides, Tifa is going to win the contest, just look at what she did to Vyse.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

this "Crono has no personality" thing never goes away. just because he doesn't speak doesn't mean he has no personality.

Uh...yes it does. CT being my favorite game doesn't prevent Crono from being the worst main character in any RPG. See SMRPG if you want to see a mute with personality.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

You are the king of completely disregarding logic when it comes to your favorites (read: Vincent), so I'm not going to pick a fight with you. You should listen to yourself type, though, and I don't see how you can possibly believe "Mario would SFF Ness more than Bowser would; that's an incorrect Zero; SFF." that or "2) Ganon out did himself on Seph."
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Damn this match really hurts since I would take the winner of this match to win the contest. I don't believe in the Samus > Crono > Mario > Samus loop. I figured if Mario beat Samus that it would be of his own strength. I think he would beat Crono in a rematch...

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Pwned by Mario >_< "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

The fact that people are petty enough to mark "Lol, X-stats" only makes today all the sweeter. Nothing quite like seeing internet addicts (because that's what everyone who is petty when marking things is, more or less) lash out in the only way they know how.

Because after all, text disappearing from a forum dedicated to discussing video games actually does make these people feel good about themselves on the inside. Pathetic.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars

the main piece of evidence there is Zero, who didn't exactly impress this year. let's wait until (hopefully) Mario/Snake before drawing conclusions on Mario's chances vs. Seph. I believe he has a good shot at him, but everything right now is relying on one legit match and a bunch of SFF.
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.

The fact that people are petty enough to mark "Lol, X-stats" only makes today all the sweeter. Nothing quite like seeing internet addicts (because that's what everyone who is petty when marking things is, more or less) lash out in the only way they know how.

Because after all, text disappearing from a forum dedicated to discussing video games actually does make these people feel good about themselves on the inside. Pathetic.


But not quite as pathetic as marking the people who tag at the beginning of every topic, eh?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Auron points Ganon to low 30's, Sephiroth points him to mid 30's... sorry if I choose not to ignore such a discrepancy.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Even going through Alucard 2k3 puts Ganon at 32%, and it seems likely enough that Ganon's increased since 2k4. Either that or Sephiroth's decreased a lot, which I think is likelier.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

"You are the king of completely disregarding logic when it comes to your favorites"

Really, damn... must be a favorites bracket I have up there on the top 50 then... except Samus wouldn't beat Mario in my favorites bracket let alone be champion. I don't disregard logic, I throw out cobbled together crap that's tailor made to back up a point of view instead of painting a realistic picture.

"so I'm not going to pick a fight with you"

Wise decision.

"You should listen to yourself type"

I have, it's mostly click-click-click. Not all that entertaining.

"and I don't see how you can possibly believe "Mario would SFF Ness more than Bowser would""

Same way Cloud SFF'd Auron more than Seph did... when the overlap is nearly equal (Mario and Bowser have the same overlap with Ness... and actualyl Mario should have more) a stronger character (Mario) will steal more votes than a weaker cahracter (Bowser). Talk about disregarding logic. You must be a Seph hater.

"that's an incorrect Zero;"

there are two ways to look at Zero last year, I think you chose the wrong one.

"SFF"

Same fanbase factor, as in there's an overlap between samus fans and mario fans and mario takes the benefit.

"2) Ganon out did himself on Seph"

Plain English there.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

But not quite as pathetic as marking the people who tag at the beginning of every topic, eh?

Not in the least.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars

The lol x-stats crap is annoying, and you've been doing it for weeks now. I'll be glad to see those posts gone, especially since some of the people who took Samus > Mario because of the XSt (read: me) are happy as all hell to see Mario winning this match anyway.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

there are two ways to look at Zero last year, I think you chose the wrong one.

He chose 20XXDF...the other way to look at Zero is that he was SFF'd by Mega Man, and he's STILL as strong as he was in 2k3. 20XXDF Zero is a little stronger though, so you're probably right about RPGuy's argument making less sense.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Query: Is it clear that the bolt of lightning about to hit Mega Man in this picture is being "summoned" by Crono?
http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/9430/megamancrono6yi.jpg

The sprites and background are outstanding, but no, I don't think the lightning's all that clear. It might be better to give Crono his luminaire effect or something, since right now it looks like all the action is happening on MM's side.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6

Not that I believe these (hello, statistical abuse), but here's some fun. Some's probably already been said, FYI; I don't mean to steal from anyone:


1:
Cloud got 49.89% against Mario in 2k2.
Samus got 40.99% against Cloud in 2k4.

2:
Samus currently has 40.02% on Mario today.
Samus got 47.36% on Sephiroth in 2k2.

3:
Samus currently has 40.02% on Mario today.
Ganondorf got 40.34% against Samus this contest.
Ganondorf got 41.83% against Sephiroth in the Villain Contest.

4:
Samus currently has 40.02% on Mario today.
Samus got 37.94% against Link in 2k3.
Sephiroth got 43.35% against Link in 2k2.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Okay, I'll do one post.

Same way Cloud SFF'd Auron more than Seph did... when the overlap is nearly equal (Mario and Bowser have the same overlap with Ness... and actualyl Mario should have more) a stronger character (Mario) will steal more votes than a weaker cahracter (Bowser). Talk about disregarding logic. You must be a Seph hater.

Auron 2k3: 28.73%
Auron 2k4: 29.37%

Cloud and Sephiroth both reduced Auron to the same strength. It follows that Mario and Bowser should reduce Ness to the same strength.

there are two ways to look at Zero last year, I think you chose the wrong one.
Plain English there.

After what Snake, Mega Man, and Knuckles have done you still don't think there should be a 20XXDF? Doubling Sora, Yoshi, and beating Magus doesn't prove anything? Sheesh.

Same fanbase factor, as in there's an overlap between samus fans and mario fans and mario takes the benefit.

So they are indirectly even but Mario can win with 60% if they meet? I don't buy it, and I don't buy Samus dropping, either, so Mario has to be above 43% and is, if you ask me, in the 45% range. SFF can certainly keep Mario under Cloud and Link, but when Sephiroth is equal to Samus and Mario gets 60% on Samus SFF doesn't work as an excuse.

Plain English there.

Hasn't everything we've seen confirmed the Spring contest stats? Well, actually, I shouldn't do a question of I'm only doing one post, so let's see:
Ganondorf: beats Auron 55/45. Spring Ganondorf and Auron-through-Tails line up perfectly.
Bowser: beats Ryu 58/42 (worse than Samus, Snake, and Sonic!), beats Tidus through extrapolation 59/41. Pretty damn impressive.
Kefka: Goes even with Vercetti, whose loss to Crono lines up perfectly.
Ocelot: Goes even with Pac-Man, who we now know was severely underrated last year both because of SFF and possibly because Yoshi wasn't adjusted properly.

I don't see any problems there.

Is the argument somewhat circumstantial? Yes. But there's no reason to dismiss it out of hand, especially when everything ties together so nicely and Sephiroth won't have Advent Children when he needs it.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

"Cloud and Sephiroth both reduced Auron to the same strength"

No they didn't, there's about 2/3 of a % difference there... and Auron is a lot closer to eithre of those two than Ness was to Bowser (who was weaker then, yet another reason to steal less SFF) or Mario.

"After what Snake, Mega Man, and Knuckles have done you still don't think there should be a 20XXDF?"

No, I think too much went wrong there to make any assumptions yet. If I were to take a number for Zero it'd be his 2k3 number which is ever so slightly lower. There's no adjusting needed for that one, meaning there's no margin for error (we don't know exactly how much to adjust MM) if we are going to use older stats for Zero.

"So they are indirectly even but Mario can win with 60% if they meet?"

Not quite. I do think Mario is pushing ~42% here and that Samus is probably 38-39~ this year. Just a guess, of course.

"and I don't buy Samus dropping,"

Significantly, no. I don't think she's 100% 2k4 strength though. Look at all the Nintendo characters that have gone up, they had damn good reasons... Samus, unfortunately, didn't do anything that stuck with people in the last year.

"but when Sephiroth is equal to Samus"

That's your first mistake, they aren't equal.

"Hasn't everything we've seen confirmed the Spring contest stats?"

Nope. Not really. Just look at Ocelot. Look at Diablo. Look at how badly Ganon was beaten by Samus. Look at how close Bowser is to Kirby. The spring results aren't completely off, but they certainly aren't confirmed. We'll see what Bowser does tomorrow and what Snake does to Mario.

"Bowser: beats Ryu 58/42 (worse than Samus, Snake, and Sonic!), beats Tidus through extrapolation 59/41. Pretty damn impressive."

... If you forget Kirby.

"Kefka: Goes even with Vercetti, whose loss to Crono lines up perfectly."

Whose narrow win over MC does not.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Also, I just got to looking...not counting the Villain Contest, it should be no surprise that Link and Cloud have gotten the largest total votes over the span of these contests...but what some may not have realized is that they have both collected over ONE MILLION VOTES over the three completed Summer Contests. That blew my mind, so I'm checkin' it out for the rest of the Noble Nine:

Link - 1,133,718 (17 matches, 16-1)
Cloud - 1,081,824 (16 matches, 14-2)
Sephiroth - 967,246 (15 matches, 12-3)
Mega Man - 771,840 (13 matches, 10-3)
Mario - 721,255 (13 matches, 10-3)
Samus - 714,460 (13 matches, 10-3)
Crono - 684,585 (12 matches, 9-3)
Solid Snake - 645,223 (12 matches, 9-3)
Sonic - 540,587 (11 matches, 8-3)

It's merely for fun, but it's nice to see Mega Man and Mario be doing the best outside of Clinkeroth. I'm not too big a fan of seeing Snake and Sonic at the bottom though. For the record, counting the Villain Contest, Sephiroth has amassed 1,289,768 votes (20 matches, 17-3).
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.