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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 248
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:28:47 AM | Message Detail
"Imagine a Final Four of Samus/Mario and Crono/Mega Man. Who wins?" -some guy I forget bringing up a good fourpack

"Samus over Crono. Easy." - everyone else



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
From: Blitz Ace the 4th | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:29:11 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:29:21 AM | Message Detail
Mario VS Sonic in the finals!

At least one of them is already there.
---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:29:24 AM | Message Detail
Sephy > Mario
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: raytan7585 | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:29:52 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:31:11 AM | Message Detail
Woo, Mario!
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Mistress Aran
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:31:54 AM | Message Detail
[Insert some guy making some arrogant, vocal pick about a close match]



Now you've got the proper hang of contest analysis!

(Lol, X-stats)

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: Dragonair | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:33:05 AM | Message Detail
Hmmm, I just noticed. But is there a reason to why MMXcalibur's site hasn't been updated since August 14th?
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signature
From: xycos | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:33:54 AM | Message Detail
How will SC2k5 impact the X-stats?
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"Life is all about ass: kicking it, covering it, kissing it, and trying to get it."
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:34:21 AM | Message Detail
Mario's gonna kick Sephiroth in the junk. Yes, indeedy.
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Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:35:56 AM | Message Detail
Rock, paper, scissors indeed.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:37:36 AM | Message Detail
Leon brings up an excellent point, by the way. Samus > Crono > Mario > Samus may be the only loop we ever see. Until Mario beats Crono in the final, anyway.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 9/13/2005 12:39:54 AM | Message Detail
Hmmm, I just noticed. But is there a reason to why MMXcalibur's site hasn't been updated since August 14th?

MMXcalibur went on leave for a while, leaving Sabin in charge. He ran into a few problems, went on vacation, and fell behind. Site never got updated although MMX is back (I think), and I would guess it may not be until after this contest is over.
---
Go ahead ********! Fire away! I've got a big turkey dinner here that says you don't have enough bullets to take down my hungry ***! ~ MG2 Run
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/13/2005 5:41:29 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 9/13/2005 5:44:02 AM | Message Detail
[Insert some guy making some arrogant, vocal pick about a close match]

Like Magus/Squall, ya? >_>
---
That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: jonthomson | Posted: 9/13/2005 5:48:48 AM | Message Detail
Samus > Crono > Mario > Samus may be the only loop we ever see. Until Mario beats Crono in the final, anyway.

I still maintain Samus > Mega Man > Mario > Samus is a perfectly acceptable loop. Anyways, these four are all roughly the same and if SFF didn't exist could all beat one another on their day.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/13/2005 5:59:56 AM | Message Detail
So, back to the same situation as in 2003, except above 40% on BL, is that what you're saying?
---
Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 9/13/2005 6:57:46 AM | Message Detail
Well, well, looks like this is our first example of reverse SFF ever.

I've been sticking with Mario since even before the contest began.

*waves the "I told you so" flag*
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:01:19 AM | Message Detail
Let's wait until we get an idea of how strong Mario actually is before we call it "reverse", okay?
---
Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:23:07 AM | Message Detail
We've got Mario

Next we need Sonic

Mega Man and Crono are ok, but Sonic would be the best out of all of them.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:26:04 AM | Message Detail
Well it's confirmed. Yuri will rank last this contest. If Samus ends up with 40% he would only get 10.14% against Mario. Only character that could pose a threat is Manny and that's if Snake loses to Bowser tomorrow and gets SFF badly by Mario.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:26:26 AM | Message Detail
...Ryu Hayabusa is going to end up 5th from this quarter of the bracket O.o
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:31:33 AM | Message Detail
Well, maybe 6th, behind Auron. I'm too lazy to do the actual math right now >_>
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: transience | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:33:22 AM | Message Detail
here's Mario with 60% on Samus:

Mario: 50.00
Samus: 40.00
Zero: 37.14
Ganon: 32.272
Auron 29.62
Ryu Hayabusa: 27.48
Yuna: 25.04
Frog: 23.96
Riku: 23.16
Lloyd: 19.87
Joanna: 19.10
wesker: 18.01
Ness: 17.20
Big Boss: 16.90
Carl Johnson: 15.43
Yuri: 10.14

---
.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:33:38 AM | Message Detail
Here's what the Mushroom/Zebes division look like together. (if Samus finish with only 40%)

1. Mario Mario
16. Yuri Hyuga

8. Frog
9. Riku

5. Auron
12. Albert Wesker

4. Ganondorf
13. Ness

6. Ryu Hayabusa
11. Lloyd Irving

3. Zero
14. Big Boss

7. Yuna
10. Joanna Dark

2. Samus Aran
15. Carl "CJ" Johnson

Seems like we'll get a few rematches
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:35:06 AM | Message Detail
wait just one second. i always thought that the very idea of mario>samus was idiotic, but apperently some people used the xstats to justify it. Accotding to these same stats does shadow>samus if the voting in the match continues?
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current goty:Advance wars duel strike
possible goty contenders: castlevania dos, we love katamari, mario kart ds
From: transience | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:35:33 AM | Message Detail
sure, if you compare across years and ignore the sff.
---
.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:36:29 AM | Message Detail
Got JD and Lloyd mixed up
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:39:00 AM | Message Detail
all right, im just not quite clear on how they work. My only understanding comes from skimming these topics. I just remeber shadow getting 45 percent on mario which seems to make him stronger than samus stat wise. but your right sff obviously plays a huge role here. But at the same time I think that the sonic universe is almost like nintendos step kids so there may have been some sff in both matches.
---
current goty:Advance wars duel strike
possible goty contenders: castlevania dos, we love katamari, mario kart ds
From: qweasdfqwe | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:42:29 AM | Message Detail
I think today gave us a much clearer of which way the SFF works. Against samus.

---
You can have your opinion...
...It's wrong, but you can have it
From: transience | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:43:53 AM | Message Detail
well, most people think Shadow/Mario was treated as if it was Sonic/Mario.. and Samus beat Sonic worse than Mario beat Shadow.
---
.
From: SpeedyG242 | Posted: 9/13/2005 7:47:21 AM | Message Detail
That sound you hear is a the thump of thousands of brackets to the floor, combined with the loudest Price is Right failure music playable.

It should have been obvious on day 2 of this contest that Mario was going to win this match. Almost all of the predictions to win in the statistics page were for Mario, and there was MAYBE one for Samus.

Why does this board never do anything like pre-poll the console boards or something? Because the X-Stats sure haven't done much to help figure out the 20,000+ voter jump we've had this year.
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"Hee hee hee... this ought to do it!"
*BUMP* "Oh no..."
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:03:19 AM | Message Detail
Mario vs. Sephiroth .. Predictions anyone??

I still think Sephiroth with 55% of the votes!

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:04:33 AM | Message Detail
Mario > Samus > Sephiroth
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:05:47 AM | Message Detail
It should have been obvious on day 2 of this contest that Mario was going to win this match. Almost all of the predictions to win in the statistics page were for Mario, and there was MAYBE one for Samus.

1. So we were supposed to decide that Mario would win without seeing ANYTHING from his opponent?
2. Do you know how many brackets on the Leaderboard after the first match had Mario winning it all? Eight. Samus had twenty, Crono had eleven. Just because this result was obvious to you (and a fair chunk of the people who went with Mario) doesn't mean that it was to everyone.

I hope all this smugness dies down soon. I have no problem with people being happy with the results, and having a little fun at the Samus boosters. But it seems to be pandemic and a bit too over the top.

But hey, Mario's winning, so it's not all bad.
---
Season 20 Team Match: Zophar, Geno, Ryudo, Etna vs. Kefka, Roufas, Tiamat, Gryz. Only at rpgdl.com!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:13:45 AM | Message Detail
For as great a day as it is that Mario's beating Samus down (and I have Samus winning the main bracket, mind you), the bashing is overboard; it's as if the only thing people saw before today's match was the 2k4 stats.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:17:36 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and I think I just might vote for Bowser tomorrow (MIGHT). Why? I'm a team player, and I think nobody deserves to win this contest more this year, especially after the hell caught last year, than our very own Heroic Mario. =P
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: transience | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:18:30 AM | Message Detail
while I agree with you, he's got Cloud in his bracket. :)

---
.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:20:57 AM | Message Detail
...oh yeah. Well, crap, down went his chance of winning by alot, heh. Still though, I just might help out anyways. I think it's literally impossible to imagine the board's reaction after Heroic Mario wins the most difficult bracket yet.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: transience | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:24:22 AM | Message Detail
if anyone from board 8 wins the bracket, they're getting my love. doesn't matter if it's HM or the jp.

I want to see Snake win to disprove the whole pic factor thing once and for all, for our stats to look as neat as possible, and for a good read on Bowser.
---
.
From: Dark Ninja1521 | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:26:02 AM | Message Detail
I have Crono over Mario on my bracket, but I'm starting to worry a little after seeing Mariio's performance in this contest so far.
---
Summer Contest 2005: 77/100
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:28:01 AM | Message Detail
With three huge consoles being released before next year's contest, our stats are goin' to look bad enough next year anyways; I don't think that'd be a good enough reason for those wantin' Mario VS Bowser again.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:30:42 AM | Message Detail
I argued for the "Samus > Crono, Crono > Mario, Mario > Samus" loop pre-contest, but I'm starting to think that Mario's going to win the main bracket, and comfortably at that. Mario/Sephiroth could prove to be a very interesting match.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: metoolfan | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:34:02 AM | Message Detail
the theory is in action!

Sonic will now win the whole thing! (if he gets past megaman and crono, he's got a good chance) >_>
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PH33R THE HANDGESTURE! http://handgesture.ytmnd.com/
From: Chinballz | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:42:27 AM | Message Detail
How will SC2k5 impact the X-stats?

Like the comet from the movie Deep Impact.
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One guru to rule them all. One guru to find them. One guru to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them.
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:52:42 AM | Message Detail
How will SC2k5 impact the X-stats?

Hopefully, it will convince those who still want to use them that they're a general guide to be used at your discretion, and not infused with Popo-al infallibility.
---
Season 20 Team Match: Zophar, Geno, Ryudo, Etna vs. Kefka, Roufas, Tiamat, Gryz. Only at rpgdl.com!
From: qweasdfqwe | Posted: 9/13/2005 8:58:26 AM | Message Detail
I hate to toot my own horn, but I predicted a severe SFF in this match (inadvertantly) when comparing Mario/Samus to Vincent/Kerrigan.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=23493127

---
You can have your opinion...
...It's wrong, but you can have it
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/13/2005 9:04:13 AM | Message Detail
Ya know, there's an awesome chance of Bowser > Ganon in this contest, strangely enough.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 9/13/2005 9:04:13 AM | Message Detail
Man why I chose Samus anyway?Okay she is strong alright,but Mario is Mario.He is Nintendo himself.Everyone has played at least a Mario game.He is an elite icon.Ah screw it,I hope he loses the contest!
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: transience | Posted: 9/13/2005 9:10:19 AM | Message Detail
sad thing is, Bowser > Ganon will happen if Snake beats Bowser, but not if Bowser beats Snake.
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