Soul’s Analysis

Super Sexy Round 3 Results

Mario thrashed Zero: 62.86% - 37.14%

Samus ripped Ganondorf to threads: 59.66% - 40.34%

OMG MATCH OF THE CONTEST!

Yes folks, that's right. I believe that this match decides who the winner will be for this contest. I'm sure many other people have come to this conclusion as well. If Samus proves to be the second strongest Nintendo mascot in this contest and defeats Mario, she'll definitely take out Sonic/Crono. But, if Mario manages to beat Samus, he'll get one of two possible legendary matches in the finals with Sonic or Crono.

Looking at the last match for each character, it's safe to assume that Mario looks a hell of a lot better then Samus right now. Last year, Zero and Ganondorf were about even. Of course, Ganondorf raised a percent or two during the Spring, and probably during this year as well. But I don't believe it was anything too high. Two percent at the most. Still, that gives Mario a little bit of an edge.

There is 3 groups of people who will vote in this match. The first group of people Nintendo fans. Who do you think those Nintendo fans will vote for? You have a character, Samus, that have been in a few awesome games, and a character, Mario, being the God of videogame characters. This will be another case of father Vs. son. Well, fat italian father Vs. bounty hunter daughter. Either way, I still think that father (Mario) will still come out on top in that department.

The next people to vote will be the Nintendo haters. Obviously, they will vote for Samus. Mario basically is Nintendo, so if you dislike the company, you probably won't vote for the company's mascot Mario. Samus will get most of her votes from here, I believe.

The last group is the big one. The group of people who basically couldn't care less about Nintendo, but vote on other different factors. The old-school voters will give a lot of votes to Mario, but a few of them will vote for Samus as well because of her games in the NES/SNES era. The people who couldn't care less will probably vote based on the picture alone. Since the picture is not up yet, I don't know who will get these votes. I'm going to guess Samus, since I believe she looks better. Although, if it is a sprite round, Mario will win these voters tremendously. The die-hard fans will vote for whoever they want to. The Square fans will probably be split as well.

I believe Mario will get the day vote, while Samus gets the two night votes. The after-school vote will probably go to Mario. The board vote will probably be split, although Mario will come out on top I believe.

Basically, this match looks it could go either way. Duh, that's obvious. It wouldn't be the match of the contest if it was supposed to be a blow-out. It has a lot on the line as well, since the winner will definitely defeat Snake/Bowser and will most likely defeat Crono/Sonic/Mega Man.

I'm choosing Mario to win this one. Why? I believe in my heart that the people on GameFAQs will choose Samus over Mario as their more popular character. Sure, they can have Link/Cloud/Seph, since those three are involved in the top 2 games of all time on this site, but come on. I find it hard to believe that actually think that Samus is more popular then Mario...

Before I go on a rant, I got to say that if I choose Samus here and Mario wins, I will never let myself forget about it. I'm still kicking myself over choosing Magus over the infinitely cooler Knuckles. Although I have Samus in my bracket, I have Mario in my heart. I'm not going to do the same mistake. If I'm wrong and Samus wins, at least I went down picking my favorite character. If I get the point, I'll be very happy :)

My prediction: Mario wins with 52.11% of the vote. It'sa me, MARIO FTW!

Ulti’s Analysis


From: SephirothG | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:32:00 PM | Message Detail | #478
Ulti's Analysis: I don't care what the X-Stats say, I just can't see Mario losing to Samus. Mario with 51.59%

Prediction: Mario with 51.59%



Outback’s Analysis

Before this contest I was pretty adamantly in favor of Samus to win this match - and for that matter the whole tournament. That was mainly because I felt that Samus was significantly stronger than Mario; or at least strong enough that if there was Mario/Samus SFF (which I didn't think there would be, and, for that matter, I still don't), that it wouldn't be enough to affect the outcome.

However, Mario's latest matches, especially his match against Zero, have shown that Mario has risen from the "disappointment" that was his 2k4 performance. A near doubling of Zero is impressive, especially considering that Zero was very, very close to Snake, one of the elites of this contest, last year. Percentage-wise, Samus has been rather impressive. Scoring over 85% on anybody is an accomplishment, especially when said score comes without the presence of SFF. However, Samus has failed rather miserably when it comes to drawing votes. Her matches have not been able to draw the crowds that Mario's have. This match is the championship match for all intents and purposes, right here, and the only way Samus can pull it out is if the voters that are drawn by Mario vote for Samus, and I just don't see that happening.

Mario with 54.11%



Tnote’s Analysis

And with the exception of Vincent (and the addition of Zero and/or Ganon), we are down to the eight strongest combatants in the field. According to many, the two strongest will do battle tomorrow, in a match that could honestly go 60/40 either way. If there is no SFF whatsoever, Samus has no problems defeating Mario. If Mario pwns Samus like he has so many other Nintendo characters, she has no shot. I doubt the match will reach 60% for either character, but if it does, it will certainly be Mario. Samus was unable to SFF Ganon, a gentleman whom she has shared numerous consoles, and the super popular SSB:M with. Link SFFed Mega Man, who SFFed Yoshi, none of whom had a single game together.

Luigi was then SFFed by Yoshi, who in turn got SFFed by Bowser, who also SFFed Ness, whom Mario SFFed both of. Confused? Me too. The moral of the story is that next to Link himself, nobody hops on the SFF train more than the characters from Mario brothers. 24 hours from poll's opening, I full expect to see my bracket still alive and kicking, and most of Board 8 to be completely distraught by the 2nd most overhyped match ever. Expect FFVII/OoT part II tomorrow folks.

Pick: Mario with 55.83%

Vlado’s Analysis

This match had a lot of potential, but all that has happened so far seems to point in one direction - Mario will win. Samus was considered the favourite by many, mostly the X-Stats followers, before the contest, but, we saw well that X-Stats mean NOTHING this year. Samus would probably defeat each other character in the contest, save for probably Crono, but she has to face Mario at this stage, and this is the end of the road for her. Previous results in this or other contests don't matter. This is an all-Nintendo battle, and Link is the only one who can beat Mario in something like this.

Basically, among the hardcore Nintendo fanbase, Mario will dominate. He'll probably get 2/3 of those votes. We know well that the fans of Mario games are much more than the Metroid fans, too. People who like both will be more inclined to vote Mario, since he's the Nintendo mascot and pretty much the face of their favourite company. Samus can only win the votes of the non- or anti-Nintendo fans, who are more likely to anti-vote Mario, and the clueless voters, who will vote based on "WHOAMG ROBOT!!111". Yes, those exist, too.

Samus is also the "cooler" and "less kiddy" character. Well, guess what. So was Zero. That result proved that those votes will not make much of a difference. Mario's owning of Zero doesn't prove much about this particular battle, but it sure proved that no one other than Samus could possibly stop him on his way to the battle with Sephiroth. Basically, the winner of this match will win the regular tournament. I'm almost certain of that, the only possible exception could be if Samus won here and faced Crono. Either way, with the way things are looking, I think Mario will take the tournament with ease.

Predcited percentage: Mario with 52.37%.

Ulti's analysis is the best ever.

anyway, as I was posting:

dammit, I need to get to bed and there's no way I'll be up for the start of the match. here's to hoping that Samus is destroying Mario when I get up.

Mega Man with 61.45% of the brackets.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

*looks at picture*

*sigh* Sprites. Somehow, I just knew it.

Chichiri had better be right about pictures playing no significant factor, or I might as well start digging the grave now...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I started reading Inviso's analysis, and I thought Moltar copied his own and put it there. The beginnings are quite similar. <_<
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"Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." ~ Isaac Asimov

I didn't forget, it's right there in the 4th post.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Mega Man vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Mega - Vote: Yoshi (80/92)

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/br57.jpg

eh, it's decent. Ceej has had better sprite pics.

but, now with sprite pictures this round, Snake COULD be in trouble. maybe. especially if Snake does get his Solid **** pic and Bowser gets the pic he got against Sigma, then Snake is in deep, deep Solid ****.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

Meh, Mario/Samus is all right. Nothing spectacular. Snake should get the home field against Bowser based on this. (Use MGS: Ghost Babel sprites, Ceej!)
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

My brilliant prediction:

If the match has odd percentages (ignoring decimals), Samus wins. If they're even, Mario wins. It'll be:

54-46 Mario
53-47 Samus
52-48 Mario
51-49 Samus
50-50 Mario

In conclusion, the odds of Mario winning are 3:2 for.
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Kawajiri, Azeredo, Pulver, Hansen, Kawajiri, Hansen, Kawajiri
Minowa, Busta, Hendo, Gono, Busta, Hendo, Hendo

Whoops
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"Let's mosey"
Summer Contest Score: 88/96, Predicted Winner: Crono

If the match pictures this year are any indication, CJayC is trying to avoid rehashing his pictures, so I doubt you'll see either of those pictures for Snake or Bowser.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Snake doesnt have a lot of sprites to use...
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

SPRITES??? :) :) :) :) :) :)

Hello to me potentially winning this contest now!
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SC2k5: 85/92 *Currently 12th on the Leaderboard*
Come on Bowser! Make this dream a reality!

Ya know, I just got to thinkin' how funny it'd be if the metroid in the background had a hold of a Goomba.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

He's got Ghost Babel sprites, which actually look like the Solid Snake design most people are familiar with.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Snake has 'true' sprites from MG1, MG2, and MG: Ghost Babel. Snake also can have 'pseudo-sprites' from MGS, MGA or MGA2.

Best case scenario will probably be Ghost Babel, *maybe* MGA2...but it's all bad for him. *sigh* If only the rounds were reversed, and he had got last round's picture against Bowser...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Match 57: (1) Mario Mario vs. (1) Samus Aran

Past Performances

Mario Mario

Summer 2005
Beat Joanna Dark, 80.11% - 19.89%
Beat Ness, 82.80% - 17.20%
Beat Zero, 62.86% - 37.14%

Win - Lose Record
13-3

Samus Aran

Summer 2005
Beat Yuri Hyuga, 87.32% - 12.68%
Beat Frog, 70.05% - 29.95%
Beat Ganondorf, 59.66% - 40.34%

Win - Lose Record
13-3

Analysis

Welcome to “The Match” so much is on the line on this match; most likely winner, second strongest Nintendo character, board 8 vs. the casuals, Mushroom Kingdom vs. Planet Zebes and the most hyped match of the contest. Both characters are so similar, but they are also very different. All stats are off for this match nothing will help you in the quest to find who will win. I just hope this match isn’t anticlimax.

Zero a contender to end the noble nine (not this year though) was easily beaten by Mario. 60%+ on Zero is very hard feat to accomplish, but after Mario had 65% on him at one time shows that Mario may have weakness as the day progresses. Like Zero, Ganondorf was also a contender to end the noble 9 in the future and Samus had 60% for most of the day until she lost it at night. She outdid Sephiroth during the Spring Contest and that too isn’t an easy feat to accomplish. Was the villains contest overrated or will Samus (or Mario) be able to beat Sephiroth when it comes to the ToC?

Samus may have been over Mario in the x-st last year, but those stats haven’t really been much help for us. Samus may have a bigger fanbase than Mario, but most of her is also a part of the Nintendo fanbase, this is where Mario can get the edge or it could also mean that Samus will have no problem in winning. Mario is obviously the favorite by casuals to take the main bracket. Just take a look at the prediction stats, the only other character that has over 50% is Solid Snake and Mario still destroys him with 80%. This could mean that casuals would take Mario over Samus. Then again in 2k2 the casuals favored Mario and we all know what happened.

So what is to be expected of the match, well I’m pretty sure the board vote will favor Mario then as the night vote goes on they will pretty much go 50/50. The morning vote will most likely favor Samus, but Mario isn’t bad with it either, the day vote will go 50/50, but I think Samus will have the small favor and as the night vote starts again Mario will bring up his infamous clutch if he’s losing or pretty much go 50/50. I’m siding with my bracket, but I’ll be rooting for Mario.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Samus Aran over Mario Mario

charmander6000’s Prediction: Samus wins, 50.12% - 49.88%

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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

didn't Cjay rehash soincs last pic though?
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Sonic The Hedgehog's road to the best final possible:
20XX Division Champ: (1) MegaMan

Haha! Mario's looking great as ever with sprite and a kick ass hammer from M&L!


Go, Mario !!

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

And all but two of the Analysis Crew siding with Mario. Good deal. <3

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Samus is expected to beat Auron with 62.97%, while Mario beat Zero with 62.86%. Who'd you take between Zero or Auron? (I say these two are a better comparison than Zero and Ganondorf...)

Zero's 20XX-adjusted value is overrated if anything, for sure...question is, is he even overrated, and if so, by how much? The stupid Mega Man/Yoshi SFF certainly doesn't solve anything.

Auron is still a big question mark...based off Sp2K5 he's estimated to be at 33.02% against Base Link. He'd be at a disadvantage against Zero at his highest adjustment in this case. However, Kefka and Diablo have shown that they might be weaker than Sp2K5 suggests, which could pull Ganondorf down...(and Auron, too).

Slight advantage to...MARIO, I'd say. It seems that the past matches favor Mario slightly, but in the event of a toss-up, I'd have to give the edge. red13n siding with Mario couldn't hurt either (knowing him and his past predictions...). Of course, I shouldn't forget that Samus was above Mario last year...

But...GOOOOOOOO Samus! You're so great, especially in your 16-bit incarnation...ah, you've gotten the best possible picture. Please win, Samus.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Yay, 2d sprites for the 4th round...

Hopefully Snake gets a sprite from Ghost Babel instead of the original Metal Gear.
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Kurotsuchi Mayuri fan
Supporter of Solid Snake in the Summer 2k5 Character Battle IV

Do any Vincent sprites exist?
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Mario vs. Samus - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (84/96)

Vincent's going to be getting the 'Auron' treatment, which is something I wish I could say for Snake. Seriously, his old-school days are more a liability than a benefit in this contest. = /
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I'd laugh if Snake's pic cost him the match.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Vincent has in-game models that I'm sure CJayC will use.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Nothing could possibly be better for my bracket than for Snake to get a horrible picture and Bowser get a great one. =p

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

So, wow, virtually EVERYONE in this topic is rallying around Snake to lose. Great. -_-
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

I said Snake would lose here from the start. Now it just needs to happen to further my oh so awesome predicting ability this year. <3

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Nay, I hope Solid smokes Bowser's ****. I like Bowser and all, but these upset-talks need to be put to rest. I acknowledge Bowser CAN win, but I'll be mad if he does.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Just because the first pic in this round is sprites doesn't mean all of them will be. Remember, Ceej has switched themes in the middle of a round before. As for the pic itself, I love all of the little details in it. I wish it wasn't in the Mushroom Kingdom, but that's okay.

Oh, and Ulti's analysis fails at life.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b58.jpg

...guess it is sprites. I don't get it.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]

Nay, I hope Solid smokes Bowser's ****. I like Bowser and all, but these upset-talks need to be put to rest. I acknowledge Bowser CAN win, but I'll be mad if he does.

;_;
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SC2k5: 85/92 *Currently 12th on the Leaderboard*
Come on Bowser! Make this dream a reality!

Nothing could possibly be better for my bracket than for Snake to get a horrible picture and Bowser get a great one. =p

Actually, what would be great is for Snake to get a bad picture and still whip Bowser. Then we could put this stupid theory to rest and realize it was more Frog than Snake.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Bowser wins.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b58.jpg

YES!!!!!!!!!!
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SC2k5: 85/92 *Currently 12th on the Leaderboard*
Come on Bowser! Make this dream a reality!

LOL, great inside Metal Gear joke, and not a bad Snake sprite.

Still worried, though...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Great Snake gets an absolutely horrible sprite well Bowsers in all his 8-bit glory. Cjay must of been saving sprites for this match to screw Snake over.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b59.jpg

Same Vincent pic. Not as good as Mario/Samus...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b60.jpg

Meh, this could have been a lot better. It's good, but lacking.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]

Aww, no Solid **** :(
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

Bowser gets homefield advantage to add insult to Snake's injury!

<3 <3 <3 <3

Of course, if he still loses then I will slowly fade away... <_<
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SC2k5: 85/92 *Currently 12th on the Leaderboard*
Come on Bowser! Make this dream a reality!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b58.jpg

>>XD

Bowser > Snake.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

I feel asleep = INSTANT WIN FOR SNAKE
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Kurotsuchi Mayuri fan
Supporter of Solid Snake in the Summer 2k5 Character Battle IV

These aren't that great. Crono looks like ass, IMO... = /
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

If it didn't have Snakes name on it, you wouldn't have anyway of knowing it was him, while Bowser get an easily recognizable pic. Snake is screwed. All of the sudden kicking Soras ass doesn't look all that impressive anymore.

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Can't think of a good sig.

I FEEL ASLEEP!
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.

Sonic > > > Mega Man in that picture.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth