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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 246
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:19:22 PM | Message Detail
I rather like those stats since it has Snake 3rd strongest behind Samus and Mario, and it has Sonic over Mega Man. I'd be interested in seeing how you developed that though.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:19:23 PM | Message Detail
put the King to 13.37 and I'm convinced.
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From: ernest | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:21:16 PM | Message Detail
so far how's the contest been?
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:22:29 PM | Message Detail
*Sighs*... I can't believe Yoshi is doing so poorly. Looks like the little guy is pretty susceptible to SFF.... I know I'd take Yoshi > Leon in a heartbeat, dispite their two performances.

Thanks to everyone who supported Yoshi this year, and I hope you all continute to do so in the coming years.

Also, I have no doubts about Mega Man > Sonic now.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:23:47 PM | Message Detail
If you think there's SFF here, then you should still have doubts on MM/Sonic...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:25:31 PM | Message Detail
Yuna stronger than Rikku? Impossible!
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:26:41 PM | Message Detail
judging from those stats, it looks like he took the division winners, took a guess at how they'd do against 2k3 Link and then calculated x-stats for each.
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From: DarkLink89 | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:28:16 PM | Message Detail
Jin Kazama - 23.85 (18.13) ((17.17)) *16.22*
Vyse - 19.12 (14.53) ((13.77)) *13.00*


*cries*
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It's official: Princess Peach has bouncing breasts in Super Mario Strikers! http://www.livejournal.com/users/the_gel/14416.html
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:28:39 PM | Message Detail
God damn, I can't wait for midnight.

*fidgets*
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:35:43 PM | Message Detail
Leon Kennedy - 35.44 (26.58) ((24.81)) *23.04*
Yoshi - 33.50* (25.13) ((23.45)) *21.78*
Gordon Freeman - 29.37 (22.03) ((20.56)) *19.09*

Conker - 23.98 (17.99) ((16.79)) *15.59*
Pac-Man - 18.20* (13.65) ((12.74)) *11.83*
Revolver Ocelot - 17.75* (13.31) ((12.43)) *11.54*
Laharl - 17.64* (13.23) ((12.35)) *11.47*


You have GOT to be ****ing me...Leon over Yoshi is bad enough, but Gordon right behind, and Ocelot next to Laharl?!
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Mega Man vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Mega - Vote: Yoshi (80/92)
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:37:18 PM | Message Detail
there's no bias there at all. that's how the division x-stats look.

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From: ernest | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:38:30 PM | Message Detail
i'm afraid we can't deny it. GFNW will end one day. CjayC please do something you can't implode the universe i'm too young to die
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:04:19 PM | Message Detail
If you think there's SFF here, then you should still have doubts on MM/Sonic...

Not really. Tifa and Yoshi should be more or less equivalent, as their performances through Luigi indicate, and Mega Man is doing 11.47% better than Sonic did. Consider that Link only got 8.79% of SFF on Yoshi and how Mega Man isn't even from the same company, even with a decent amount of SFF Mega Man is still the clear winner.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:28:24 PM | Message Detail
Luigi obviously increased at least alittle since his match with yoshi, but whatever. In any case, This match is exactly like snake sora,does anyone think snake is really going to beat samus/mario?? Didn't think so. On top of that, how do we know yoshi's strength last year? He could've potentially been SFF'd far worse than we thought, thus underrating both him and luigi coming into this year, and explaining they're overperformances (other than this match) so far.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:41:17 PM | Message Detail
Well, if Yoshi was stronger last year for whatever reason, which I've been saying forever, it doesn't change that fact that if Sonic = Mega Man than Luigi beats Yoshi with 60%. You can't pull up Yoshi last year without also pulling up Luigi, and there's simply no way there's a 15% swing in a match between them in a single year when the only real reasons Luigi has to increase (SM64DS and a general Nintendo increase) are also shared by Yoshi. That leaves SFF as an explanation, and I don't think Mega Man can collect more on Yoshi than Link did, so I think it'll keep Mega Man/Sonic within 54% or so but Mega Man will still be the clear winner.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:45:11 PM | Message Detail
Lopen, your whole "argument" is about pity voting, not pic voting.

Well it was a combination. A huge pic discrepancy can sway pity voting to new levels. Believe it or not. At least that's the way I vote. I pity voted Agent 47 despite having no idea who he was just because his picture was so cool. And I'm not generally a pity voter.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:47:53 PM | Message Detail
And by "having no idea who he is" I mean "not having enough of an idea of who he is to legitimately like him more than Sora". I actually have played Hitman 2...

Not that relevant, just felt like saying that.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:51:18 PM | Message Detail
Love the sig, Lopen.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:01:36 PM | Message Detail
Uh...a thought...

This match is helping to support Link/MM SFF, right? (yeah, I'm actually still skeptical, but that's for another time)

So, that helps support the adjustment, right...?

So...that means if Zero needed to be adjusted...wouldn't Mario be stronger than Samus?

And...if Zero looks weaker, but Mega Man looks like he should have been adjusted...does that mean Zero got rSFF off of Mega Man?

Which means...could Mario do that to Samus?

o.O
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:03:26 PM | Message Detail
Consider that Link only got 8.79% of SFF on Yoshi and how Mega Man isn't even from the same company, even with a decent amount of SFF Mega Man is still the clear winner.

Ka-ching...except for the clear winner part; Sonic beating Tifa the way he did looked nice, too. Regardless, the edge goes back to Mega Man.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:07:48 PM | Message Detail
So...that means if Zero needed to be adjusted...wouldn't Mario be stronger than Samus?

If Mega Man can SFF Yoshi, Zero may be susceptible himself to Mario... <_< What?

WHEN WILL THE MADNESS END????
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SC2k5: 85/92 *Currently 12th on the Leaderboard*
Come on Bowser! Make this dream a reality!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:09:32 PM | Message Detail
BOWSER SFF'D SIGMA ALL TO HELL!!!!!
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:10:08 PM | Message Detail
I actually like Squall and Cloud, but it was just too classic not to sig.

If Mega Man can SFF Yoshi, Zero may be susceptible himself to Mario... <_< What?

I wanted to say this during the match actually, I did... but then I thought... "well Zero wasn't even playable until the PS games, so SFF is probably minimal". But I am banking on Mario/Mega Man SFF in the final.. yeah boy.. that's the final.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:11:30 PM | Message Detail
Megaman now has a great chance at going to the finals. He's got the edge against Sonic, and whoever wins that has a good chance of beating Crono.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:12:17 PM | Message Detail
I think we have five very legitimate contenders to the final, and, hey, Snake could surprise me and make it six. That's a hell of a lot better than most of the other contests we've had.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:12:59 PM | Message Detail
Well it wasn't like people began LIKING Zero during the PS games. Hell, he drew fans the minute he made his first appearance in the original Mega Man X... Plus he WAS playable in X3, and he was heavily involved in the storyline of all 3 SNES games.

Then you have to throw in his new audience on the GBA... Nothing exactly provable right now, but it is something that makes you go *hmmmm*
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SC2k5: 85/92 *Currently 12th on the Leaderboard*
Come on Bowser! Make this dream a reality!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:13:08 PM | Message Detail
Heh, so I'm now gettin' hyped about Mario/Samus hardcore...who do you think is gonna take the board vote?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:14:46 PM | Message Detail
Mario, obviously.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:15:00 PM | Message Detail
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:13:08 PM | Message Detail
Heh, so I'm now gettin' hyped about Mario/Samus hardcore...who do you think is gonna take the board vote?


It'll be split with Samus having a bit of an edge.
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: rpgapzx | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:15:36 PM | Message Detail
The extreme liberal use of SFF needs to stop.

Megaman UNDERPERFORMED on Link in 2k4.
Megaman OVERPERFORMED on Yoshi 2k5.
Link SFF'd Ganondorf in 2k4.

This still suggests an inaccurate gauging of contest strengths without all the crap that SFF goes with. I'm not suggesting that SFF must be same series/game but calling Snake/Sora or MM/Yoshi SFF is inconclusive at best and just wrong at worst.
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:16:04 PM | Message Detail
You know I wouldn't be surprised if Samus jumped out to an early lead. People may argue that the shared fanbase prefers Samus over Mario, but it could very well go the other way...
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SC2k5: 85/92 *Currently 12th on the Leaderboard*
Come on Bowser! Make this dream a reality!
From: Villainous Fawful | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:17:41 PM | Message Detail
Mario takes the night, Samus takes the day because Mario sucks with the day.
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I HAVE FURY!
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:18:08 PM | Message Detail
Megaman UNDERPERFORMED on Link in 2k4.
Megaman OVERPERFORMED on Yoshi 2k5.
Link SFF'd Ganondorf in 2k4.


Overperforming and underperforming are not reasons, it is just stating what is happening. There has to be a reason BEHIND overperformances and underperformances. Link OVERPERFORMED on Ganondorf, but the reason behind it is SFF...
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SC2k5: 85/92 *Currently 12th on the Leaderboard*
Come on Bowser! Make this dream a reality!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:19:17 PM | Message Detail
I'm thinkin' Samus, too, though it'll be close; I know most of the board has Samus in their brackets, and I remember Samus would barely rank ahead of Mario both times in the "Board 8's Top 100 Characters" that Holy Excalibur would do. Hard to tell though.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: rpgapzx | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:19:39 PM | Message Detail
Overperforming and underperforming are not reasons, it is just stating what is happening. There has to be a reason BEHIND overperformances and underperformances. Link OVERPERFORMED on Ganondorf, but the reason behind it is SFF...

We're saying the exact same thing. What I'm saying is that people need to quit jumping to conculsions that SFF as the reason for those performances when the evidence for it is shaky as ****.
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:22:14 PM | Message Detail
Lesse...I'd guess that Mario and Samus are damned near even on the board, so I'll look at their past few matches.

Against | 5 minute | 15 minute | Final
Zero | 62.79% | 63.95% | 62.86%
Ness | 80.37% | 81.42% | 82.80%
Ganon | 62.17% | 61.24% | 59.66%
Frog | 63.34% | 66.08% | 70.05%

Gotta give the edge to Mario, if only because of Samus/Frog. Zero > Frog on the board, based on Leonhart's contest (Zero >> Frog = Ganondorf >= Ness, really).
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:27:26 PM | Message Detail
I give an edge to Samus early. She's almost as liked as Mario here, and this board is full of Samus backers and bracket voters.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:27:40 PM | Message Detail
Mario will take the board vote without much trouble. While Samus often appears to be more popular here, Board 8 is, at its heart, filled with a bunch of Mario marks. We'd give anything to see him win a tournament.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:27:51 PM | Message Detail
I have a hunch that Crono will be making the entire Devil Division look weaker than Master Chief in a few days...
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Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: rpgapzx | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:27:59 PM | Message Detail
Am I correct in assuming the Board vote will favor Mario tommorow? Samus may have a slight bracket adv. but I still see a Mario favoring...
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:31:23 PM | Message Detail
I have a hunch that Crono will be making the entire Devil Division look weaker than Master Chief in a few days...

You have no idea how much I'd love to see that. I mean, it makes Dante look like crap, unfortunately, but it'd just be too good to pass up. I'll take the collateral damage.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:33:21 PM | Message Detail
I have a hunch that Vincent will get 43.14% on Crono. If anyone can tell me why, I'll give them a cookie.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: chronicfreeze | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:38:47 PM | Message Detail
Think I will make the Top 50 with a Mario win tomorrow?

Score: 81, as of now.
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"Frog > Samus, because Samus is a woman." - Dino Duck
From: swirldude | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:41:09 PM | Message Detail
I have a hunch that Vincent will get 43.14% on Crono. If anyone can tell me why, I'll give them a cookie.

...OH GOD! HM HAS TAKEN YOU!
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So, if someone says "Who are The Patriots?" people will be able to answer "Oakland"? ~paperwarrior
From: Dark115 | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:46:37 PM | Message Detail
Think I will make the Top 50 with a Mario win tomorrow?

Score: 81, as of now.


You should as I've also been -11 and I keep poping up on the top 50 until Magus loses each round :( so Mario winning over Samus should put us both up there
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http://users.ign.com/collection/Dark115.
Most Wanted: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (GameCube), Soul Calibur III (PS2)
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:47:25 PM | Message Detail
I have moved the PS2 downstairs, and will be playing Shadow Hearts all night long, following this match. Unless of course I fall asleep, in which case I will be doing neither. But here's to hoping 12+ hours of Yuri's sexual-innuendos and a Mario thrashing of Samus.

Aran? More like ArOWNed!

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 85/96 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:49:30 PM | Message Detail
You should as I've also been -11 and I keep poping up on the top 50 until Magus loses each round :( so Mario winning over Samus should put us both up there.

Nah, most casuals have Mario > Samus.

Only stats people have faith in Samus.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:50:04 PM | Message Detail
Well, at least 23 of the top 50 have Samus, so if Mario wins, I think it is safe to assume at least half the top 50 will change.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 85/96 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:50:16 PM | Message Detail
...OH GOD! HM HAS TAKEN YOU!

Not quite, as I actually think that Crono can beat that, but that is perhaps the most interesting value that Vincent can get.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:54:45 PM | Message Detail
That makes somebody equal to somebody else, doesn't it?

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 85/96 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)
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