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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 246
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/12/2005 7:51:57 AM | Message Detail
Yuri

The only other character with a good chance is Manny.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 7:52:06 AM | Message Detail
probably Yuri. we'll know tomorrow.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/12/2005 7:55:41 AM | Message Detail
Megaman's taking the day vote on top of that? DAMN. Based on a static Yoshi, that'd mean Megaman grew like mad from his adjusted value.

Yep, sounds like SFF to me. It's obvious by now Megaman is essentially Nintendo in these.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:01:28 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man is not Nintendo!?!?! You forget teh spoilers.
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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Dark115 | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:29:34 AM | Message Detail
So if there is no SFF between Mega Man and Yoshi, where does this put Leon and Gordon Freeman in the Xsts?
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http://users.ign.com/collection/Dark115.
Most Wanted: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (GameCube), Soul Calibur III (PS2)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:30:16 AM | Message Detail
Nah, Manny doesn't really have a chance of topping Yuri, I don't think. He's looking to be easily above Guybrush, whereas I don't think Yuri will do that.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:37:58 AM | Message Detail
Hmmmm...This match's vote totals are on par with Samus/Ganondorf, a SFF match.

DUN DUN DUN!
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:42:15 AM | Message Detail
Unless you think that gordan freeman is damn near elite, it's kind of hard to argue no sff being in this match. This would also put pacman ridiculously lower then usual if I'm not mistaken.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:42:55 AM | Message Detail
elite? GF's value has been set in stone for over a week. this match changes nothing in terms of GF.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:45:18 AM | Message Detail
Yes, but no sff would mean megaman is quite a ways ahead of his adjusted value in 2k4. Well unless you think yoshi somehow made a huge drop in contest strength.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:49:37 AM | Message Detail
Hehe, it's going to be great fun adjusting this fiasco. Yoshi's getting SFFed by Megaman and SFFed Pac-Man, so that only leaves Laharl... which actually sounds good, as he hinted at a boost for Yoshi. Not an insignificant one, not an aberrant one.

That leaves Pac-Man, of course. Man, what does it take to get a decent read on this guy? Last year he was SFFed by Luigi, and the year before he was behind Crono/Kefka SFF... heck, he was behind SMB3/Metroid SFF in the game contest. That leaves 2002, which STILL comes across to me as conservative given the fact that he beat Ocelot.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:54:07 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't trust using Laharl's ranking. I actually don't think that he's much different from Vyse indirectly. Especially since he's since had a year of exposure on GameFAQs. Basing Yoshi off of Conker may be slightly better, but again I doubt how accurate that would be as well...
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SC2k5: 85/92 *Currently 12th on the Leaderboard*
Come on Bowser! Make this dream a reality!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:56:05 AM | Message Detail
Here are some of the projected areas for these characters:

Adjusted Mega Man (38.60%) - Leon Kennedy is at 27.36%, equal to 2004 Dante. Yoshi is currently at 24.94%, barely above 2004 Luigi. Gordon Freeman is at 22.67%, practically Kefka's equal. Pac-Man is at 13.55%, over 2% lower than even 2004 had him. Revolver Ocelot stands at 13.21%.

Unadjusted Mega Man (34.74%) - Leon Kennedy is at 24.62%, exactly equal to 2004 Luigi. Yoshi is currently at 22.43%, Bomberman's equal. Gordon Freeman stands at 20.40%, right below Duke Nukem. Pac-Man drops to 12.19% and Ocelot drops to 11.89%.

2004 Yoshi (27.05%) - Mega Man currently stands at nearly 42% on Link, a little below Samus. Leon Kennedy moves up to 29.77%, 2004 Alucard's equal. Gordon Freeman rises to 24.67%, a little above 2004 Luigi. Pac-Man stands at 14.70%, more than a percent lower than last year. Ocelot stands at 14.33%.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:57:12 AM | Message Detail
Well, it's not like Laharl will ever be in position of winning a match anyway.

Basing Yoshi off Conker gives essentially the same value as the other years, assuming a static Megaman. That means Megaman actually needs to go UP for an eventual boost to be factored in.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:58:09 AM | Message Detail
dare I say that we have "20XX2K5F"? just typing that hurts my brain.
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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:58:16 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and Leon Kennedy is projected to have a 54%+ win over Yoshi.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: metoolfan | Posted: 9/12/2005 8:59:54 AM | Message Detail
I'm hoping that this is HUGE SFF in Megaman's favour...if it's just raw power Sonic is in some deep ****.
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PH33R THE HANDGESTURE! http://handgesture.ytmnd.com/
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:00:51 AM | Message Detail
Those numbers make me think that this isn't just Mega Man's raw power.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:02:12 AM | Message Detail
this is just a goofy division, kind of like Snake's. the only difference is that Snake's division has a bunch of new characters / characters with questionable values, like Vivi or Alucard, or even Snake himself.
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From: FourthDeus | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:06:38 AM | Message Detail
People really think Nintendo when they think Mega Man?

I'm having trouble believing the voters are that dumb.
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:09:21 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man was created back in an era when company association didn't matter. It was irrelevant since Nintendo was pretty much all there was.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:10:04 AM | Message Detail
People really think Nintendo when they think Mega Man?

I'm having trouble believing the voters are that dumb.


They don't have to think megaman = nintendo, they have to like both megaman and nintendo enough for the outcome of nintendo vs. megaman matches to be scewed. Big difference.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:41:23 AM | Message Detail
Looks like Mega Man's about to break 68% here. He must still be bitter about the whipping Link gave him.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:43:27 AM | Message Detail
Megaman > Sonic.


^_^

I am just pretty pumped about tomorrows match!


KB
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:45:42 AM | Message Detail
This be some hardcore SFF, and I be served.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:46:12 AM | Message Detail
Whoa, back to back 73%+ updates for Mega Man.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:46:29 AM | Message Detail
Friendly reminder: Mega Man owns your souls.


While I've argued for some minimal SFF in Link/Mega Man, I'm still skeptical about SFF in today's match. Considering how many modern/classic fan-bases Yoshi has to come from (the Mario series, Yoshi puzzle games, Yoshi side-scrollers, Mario Party's, Mario Kart's, Mario Tennis's, Mario Golf's, Mario Baseball, SMRPG, SSB/M, and probably more) and that almost half of Mega Man's fanbase comes from the NES days (where Yoshi was practically absent, save for the puzzle games)...I'm doubtin' SFF in today's match (though I don't wanna see Yoshi/Pac/Revolver so low).
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:47:22 AM | Message Detail
...Honestly, SFF makes a ton more sense than anything else.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:49:45 AM | Message Detail
agreed. whether or not you believe it should be SFF, the results look ridiculous if it's not. Luigi would beat the living hell out of Yoshi if this was true.
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From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:50:11 AM | Message Detail
But for Real, SFF isnt going to make up for 8% here.


Yoshi=Tifa. Or pretty darn close.

KB
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:51:44 AM | Message Detail
At this rate, Leon Kennedy would be expected to get 55% or more on Yoshi and he'd be at 30%+ on BL, and it puts Mega Man in serious contention for the entire contest. It will also make Gordon Freeman dangerously close to 25% or more on BL.

And Mega Man just broke 68% here.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:52:28 AM | Message Detail
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 5:49:45 PM | Message Detail
agreed. whether or not you believe it should be SFF, the results look ridiculous if it's not. Luigi would beat the living hell out of Yoshi if this was true.


Maybe there was Luigi vs. Yoshi SSF and Yoshi was also just adjusted badly last year?
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
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From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:54:25 AM | Message Detail
Also, based off the current stats, what is Yoshi projected to get against Conker?
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:54:39 AM | Message Detail
Oh yeah, SFF is my first instinct too; Yoshi's four-pack makes little sense if it's not the case. The thing is, I just can't get myself to believe a case for it like it could for Link/Mega Man. I won't discredit it completely, but I'm not buying it until further notice.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:55:34 AM | Message Detail
Maybe there was Luigi vs. Yoshi SSF and Yoshi was also just adjusted badly last year?

If that was true then every single character in yoshi's four pack turns into a big gigantic question mark. I really don't think that sff can work in the weaker character's favour but that's just me. if the fanbase preferred yoshi over luigi then why wouldn't yoshi be stronger in the first place? It makes no sense to me.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:57:21 AM | Message Detail
There is no one in this topic who would consider Leon over Yoshi. No one. This is SFF.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:58:30 AM | Message Detail
I don't see how this can be SFF yet Sora vs. Snake can't.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 9:59:54 AM | Message Detail
I don't see how this can be SFF yet Sora vs. Snake can't.

Then you need glasses.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/12/2005 10:01:01 AM | Message Detail
While I've argued for some minimal SFF in Link/Mega Man, I'm still skeptical about SFF in today's match. Considering how many modern/classic fan-bases Yoshi has to come from (the Mario series, Yoshi puzzle games, Yoshi side-scrollers, Mario Party's, Mario Kart's, Mario Tennis's, Mario Golf's, Mario Baseball, SMRPG, SSB/M, and probably more) and that almost half of Mega Man's fanbase comes from the NES days (where Yoshi was practically absent, save for the puzzle games)...I'm doubtin' SFF in today's match (though I don't wanna see Yoshi/Pac/Revolver so low).

But who's to say that the NES fanbase didn't go on to like Yoshi as well? Those fans didn't fall off the map once the SNES came along... Though I'm sure there's more to this match than SFF. Mega Man has a really good pic advantage, and people were just underrating the hell out of Mega Man...
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SC2k5: 85/92 *Currently 12th on the Leaderboard*
Come on Bowser! Make this dream a reality!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 10:03:59 AM | Message Detail
Well, I do think this is also one of many results of such a potentially-huge voter-shift. I can easily see Laharl drop because of one (like Vyse did already), and Pac-Man over Revolver doesn't look half-bad when you consider such (I'm speaking more for Pac-Man winning than Revolver losing; I realize he was in the Villain Contest just months ago). I wouldn't have expected Mega Man to increase from it though, especially since higher vote-totals helped him a grand total of 19 votes against Sephiroth from 2k2 to 2k3.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 10:07:43 AM | Message Detail
But who's to say that the NES fanbase didn't go on to like Yoshi as well? Those fans didn't fall off the map once the SNES came along... Though I'm sure there's more to this match than SFF. Mega Man has a really good pic advantage, and people were just underrating the hell out of Mega Man...

I'm not saying they don't; afterall, the MMX games got pretty big, so I don't wanna completely discredit the idea of Mega Man SFF'ing Yoshi here...it's just that Yoshi had fanbases/series/games flying from all sorts of directions and had started to get his prime at a more recent time than Mega Man, so I'm iffy on it.

As for the picture, MM probably does have the advantage, but Yoshi's so much bigger than him too. I wouldn't think it's a crucial edge to the Blue Bomber.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 10:09:10 AM | Message Detail
I have a hard time seeing Ocelot that low when Snake is doing so well. I mean, he's at like 15%.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 10:13:06 AM | Message Detail
Perhaps a sign that Revolver, despite what the board might say, isn't all that liked? Considering Solid's whipping all sorts of ass in a game he wasn't featured in and Revolver had apparently stole the show from those who played it, maybe it's just our board being overly dellusional.

Yes, I realize Naked Snake is practically Solid Snake, and I also realize Solid Snake was in a mini-game for MGS3. He wasn't really featured in it though, for all intents and purposes.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 10:18:36 AM | Message Detail
well, I've never played an MGS title so I can't say much about that, but he did relatively well in the Spring (even beating Mega Man's villain) and that wasn't that long ago. I just cannot see him that low.
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 10:23:04 AM | Message Detail
He wasn't really featured in it though, for all intents and purposes.

No, he wasn't 'technically' featured in it. But for all intents and purposes, it is Snake in MGS3. When you go to the poll, and you see the picture, it looks like the Naked Snake from MGS3 (well, not with some of the pictures Snake has had, but you get the point). It says 'Snake' on the picture, which is what they refer to him as in-game (just like in all the MGSes, no one calls the main 'Solid' or 'Naked'...it's just 'Snake'). So basically, he's called Snake, looks like Snake, sounds like Snake, acts like Snake, and IS Snake...for all intents and purposes.

Now, if you look at Ocelot, you can see there's a lot of differences. For one, the Ocelot in MGS3 looks *nothing* like the ones from the previous games. Whether you want to argue about pic factor or not, no one who has only played MGS3 will recognize Ocelot given an 'old-man' picture. Furthermore, he's called 'Major Ocelot' in the game, rather than 'Revolver Ocelot'. So what he basically has going for him there is the name 'Ocelot' (and he's referred to as 'Major' much more than Snake is 'Naked'), and a picture that doesn't look like him.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: FourthDeus | Posted: 9/12/2005 10:47:36 AM | Message Detail
The higher Mega Man's percentage goes, the more confident I am in Sonic's victory.
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
From: Heroic Knuckles | Posted: 9/12/2005 10:57:45 AM | Message Detail
That makes sense...
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By your powers combined, I am...
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/12/2005 11:08:52 AM | Message Detail
From: FourthDeus | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:06:38 PM | Message Detail | #320
People really think Nintendo when they think Mega Man?

I'm having trouble believing the voters are that dumb.


Mega Man's most popular games are all on Nintendo systems.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Fire Emblem 8, WC3: Frozen Throne, Advance Wars
From: ShadowOwns | Posted: 9/12/2005 11:10:54 AM | Message Detail
<3 SSF matches
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Sonic The Hedgehog's road to the best final possible:
20XX Division Champ: (1) MegaMan
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 9/12/2005 11:22:55 AM | Message Detail
woot.. Go Mega Man although I like Yoshi myself ..

Mega Man > SNOIC (annoying fad)

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
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