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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 246
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:45:23 AM | Message Detail
Obviosuly someone set the Turbo Speed on max in the MvC options Menu.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:45:41 AM | Message Detail
Aww... Mega finally drops in percentage. :(

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From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:47:26 AM | Message Detail
This is going to make Revolver Ocelot look horrible...
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:48:08 AM | Message Detail
And Nemesis unfourtantly.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:48:26 AM | Message Detail
Funny how Yoshi will likely end up quite a bit lower than Luigi now. Luigi's sweet revenge for last year :)
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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:48:32 AM | Message Detail
If Ocelot really did end up under Tanner it would be hilarious... but it won't ever happen.

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From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:48:53 AM | Message Detail
G.F.A.G.F

Gordon Freeman Always Gets Forty
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:49:20 AM | Message Detail
Even after last years match, I would have picked Luigi > Yoshi again this year if it had taken place.

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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:50:02 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man would have to flat out make Yoshi look like trash fodder before we would see Ocelot = Tanner. Don't forget how much of a weak bastard he actually was.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:50:45 AM | Message Detail
Mega's lost .04 last two updates.

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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:50:54 AM | Message Detail
Another thing we've yet to point out: unless we witness the voting shift to end all voting shifts in about six hours, this will be Nintendo's first "bad" loss of the contest. It took 56 matches for it to happen. What a run.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:57:18 AM | Message Detail
Since people were talking about Sonic winning the contest yesterday, how about Mega Man for champion? Nothing that could possibly happen in this contest would be sweeter than an MM/Seph rematch with MM coming out on top.

Now, let me be clear that I don't think that's going to happen. But at least, unlike Sonic, MM hasn't lost to any character in the main bracket before.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:58:44 AM | Message Detail
All I can say is whatever beast comes out of Mega Man/Sonic, Crono's going to have his hands full with it. And that's if he hasn't dropped.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:59:06 AM | Message Detail
Nothing that could possibly happen in this contest would be sweeter than an MM/Seph rematch with MM coming out on top.

Replace "MM" with "Mario" and I'll agree. =P
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:59:23 AM | Message Detail
And who was thinking Sonic was going to win the contest? I mean, besides Heroic Mario, obviously...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:00:07 AM | Message Detail
I think whoever comes out of MM/Sonic is going to wipe the floor with Crono, but that's where their road ends.

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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:01:42 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man makes a nice jump in the % to get back to his peak.

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From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:02:58 AM | Message Detail
Nah... even if you ignore my personal preference (obviously I like MM way more than Mario), MM and Seph have more history. It would be far more dramatic for MM to go from losing 49.5/50.5 to 38.6/61.4 and then to winning than for Mario to just going from 38.1 to winning.

Besides, Mario already had his day in the sun when he beat Cloud. Mega Man's never gotten that kind of glory, and he fell 1000 votes short in 2k2.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:03:04 AM | Message Detail
Let's not judge Crono too harshly off Master Chief like we did Mega Man with Leon.

Yeah, MC is known whereas Leon was not (and Gordon is a lot less reliable than MC); however MC did have a great picture.
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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:05:09 AM | Message Detail
I didn't think MC's pic was all that great... and I only buy into pic factor when someone is made an absolute joke of or looks horrible, not someone else just looking better, which I think is arguable in the MC match. I don't think the pic had anything to do with it.

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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:06:25 AM | Message Detail
DAYUM, MM pushing for 70.

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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:13:02 AM | Message Detail
Pic factor is being highly overrated. Hell, we can't even get people to agree when a picture is good half the time and even the most unrocgnizable of pics can lead a character liek Snake to perform exactly as epected on a more recognizable Zelda. Seriously, even if the picture is doing anything it's too subtle for us to notice and too little for most of us to even care.

Seriously, Frog is looking to be about on Knuckles level... I'm not going to believe nearly 7000 voters saw the name nake and voted against him when otherwise they wouldn't, especailly not after his match with Zelda or his match with Ryu... both of which should have had at least some noticable change in voting patterns if pics really meant that much.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: andaca | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:13:20 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief has arguably one of the best pictures he could have, while Crono was stuck with maybe a quarter of the picture for himself.

The picture was clearly better for MC by far. Whether that had much of an impact on the match.... *shrug*
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:14:09 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't chalk up doubts on Crono's performance to the picture so much as I would to Master Chief's strange ability to both never get big blowouts and never get blown out big. He's usually always got a strong portion of the population that will vote against him no matter what, and he's got his own fanbase that probably wouldn't abandon him for anyone. It doesn't make Crono look great, but it's by no means a death knell.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:16:00 AM | Message Detail
Exactly as expected? You think Zelda stayed constant?!?!
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:20:29 AM | Message Detail
Constant Zelda looks nearly possible, yes. It's neat, it's easy, and as long as we don't consider what that does to Vivi it's the best explanation until SS shows otherwise.

Besides, if you believe in the pic factor and don't ignore that possibility then you have to beleive that Snake being entirely unrecognizable to even his own fanbase was a benefit!
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:23:25 AM | Message Detail
Constant Zelda looks nearly possible, yes. It's neat, it's easy, and as long as we don't consider what that does to Vivi it's the best explanation until SS shows otherwise.

That makes Sora and Alucard look absolutely pitiful, though...and why would Zelda have been the only Ninty character to *not* increase?

Besides, if you believe in the pic factor and don't ignore that possibility then you have to beleive that Snake being entirely unrecognizable to even his own fanbase was a benefit!

Yeah, but you don't think that. = /
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Darkwing Duck | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:23:39 AM | Message Detail
Starting to look resonbly well for my bracket.

Got Mario>Samus, Snake>Bowser, Chrono over my destroyed Devil division, and MM>Sonic.

If Mario prevails, I see the three others being pretty solid.

Then Mario>Snake and MM>Chrono and Mario>MM.

I'm at 79. I wonder how many above me have MM in the final.
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Let's get Dangerous.
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:31:08 AM | Message Detail
I expect Yoshi to regain some percentage during the day, but how does all of this make Ocelot look?

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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:33:44 AM | Message Detail
"That makes Sora and Alucard look absolutely pitiful, though...and why would Zelda have been the only Ninty character to *not* increase?"

Listen, you're ruining my dream. I need Bowser to beat Snake and you're not making it easy on me.

That said, I don't think the stats are going to look anything like our expectations would have them. Maybe this supposed voter shift is just so overwhelmingly large that the entire field changed in strength. We'll know when it plays out. Also, I haven't gotten the feelign from Samus that she went up any, nor am I confident in Ganon being any higher than his 2k3 number... Yoshi is being beaten like a redheaded stepchild and SFF I don't have reason to believe Ness is any stronger. It may or may not be a widespread thing, again... wait and see.

"Yeah, but you don't think that. = /"

Of course, it's ridiculous, expecially since you'd have to start beleiving that the actual effect of the picture is random. I can't imagine anyone seriously buying into a theory where something that would normally hurt a character (unrecognizable/bad pics) would other times have the exact opposite effect. That's like saying that if you drop enough babies on their head some of them will grow up to be geniuses when otherwise they wouldn't. It doesn't make sense, and it shoots massive holes into an already unprovable hypothesis on a factor that is a non-factor 9 times out of 10 anyway.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 1:36:47 AM | Message Detail
"but how does all of this make Ocelot look?"

Like a wasted nomination, which is what I'd have told you all had you asked me before the contest began.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:27:04 AM | Message Detail
I agree with Chichiri almost completely on the pic ordeal, saying that it had an effect in MC/Crono is absolutely ludicrous, trying to say it has an effect in cases of C.J and Solid ****, I think it does have an affect, but it's not going to be HUGE. Though C.J got screwed with name and picture recognition, no one calls him Carl Johnson, and I mean no one, couple that with pic factor, and I think he very well could have won against Ness, though it would have been close no doubt.

Like a wasted nomination, which is what I'd have told you all had you asked me before the contest began.

You're damn straight, The Prince should have so got his place. I hate you all for not nominating him.

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From: greatone10 | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:29:34 AM | Message Detail
I don't know why the board actually mass nominated him twice, when he had already bombed last Spring.
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BertTheOne | Can't hurt this Bert
Nominate Jay Solano & Ifnkovhgroghprm for SC2K6!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:29:51 AM | Message Detail
Which prince? :)
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:30:31 AM | Message Detail
The Prince god dammit.

The Prince of Persia of course.

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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:31:41 AM | Message Detail
I don't either. It actually came as a bit of a shock to see him nominated so highly when we knew he couldn't do all that well. Frankly, the only viallain that made the transition and didn't look worse was the only one that couldn't look worse: Wesker.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:32:24 AM | Message Detail
You could have been talking about wee-little diminutive prince of Katamari, for all I knew.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:34:04 AM | Message Detail
Good ol' Wesker... I love both Wesker and Ocelot, but I don't want to see complete fodder in these contests, even if someone gets blown out first round, it's alright if they could at least have decent matches in the future, and actually get past the first round. I pray for the day that everyone in the contest is at least a mid-carder, by today's standards. Too bad it's impossible for it to ever occur.

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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:34:32 AM | Message Detail
Pfft... that prince sucks, The King is where it's at in the game.

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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:36:31 AM | Message Detail
Not that I go in for joke noms or anything, but I think the ball is where it's at in that game.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:37:02 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man is plummeting faster than a broke crack-whore.

Zing!

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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:37:42 AM | Message Detail
XD, the ball is pretty fine looking. It even has TCVF.

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From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/12/2005 2:41:06 AM | Message Detail
It's apparent Yoshi hasnt got any "Nintendo Boost".
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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:00:32 AM | Message Detail
There's nothing like eating Buffalo wings at 6 in the morning... and yes, contrary to popular belief, that does belong in the stats topic.

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From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:05:04 AM | Message Detail
I wake up, vote, and what do I see? MM/Yoshi SFF! if this isn't proof that there's at least some fanbase overlap, then I don't know what is. based off MM's unadjusted number, Yoshi's at like 22% on BL. looks like we'll have no good read on Yoshi again.

this makes Sonic/MM/Crono look quite interesting. after Samus/Mario, those are gonna be the best matches of the main bracket. Bowser/Snake should be good too, but I think Snake is the heavy favourite. with those three, Crono is the only one that could be called a favourite, and that's based off previous years as opposed to what he's done this year.
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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:06:21 AM | Message Detail
if this isn't proof that there's at least some fanbase overlap, then I don't know what is.

Snake/Sora... duh.

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From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:09:09 AM | Message Detail
DO NOT GO THERE. PLEASE.

...anyway. those stats aren't that bad at all, Harrich - I knew Tidus being so high would be the one thing that stood out, so that was to be expected. I didn't know you took Cloud over Link, though.
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From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:11:17 AM | Message Detail
Fine... I'll wait 'till a nailbiter to go there. Happy?

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From: Super Luigi | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:15:48 AM | Message Detail
Please tell me you dont think Snake/Sora was SFF and that todays match is.
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SC2K5 Favorites - Solid Snake, Kirby, Mario, Leon Kennedy.
From: transience | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:15:49 AM | Message Detail
yeah, good thought there.

Division x-stats:

Sonic: 50.00
Tifa: 43.60
Luigi: 40.67
Diablo: 31.45
KOS-MOS: 27.66
Kratos: 27.20
Jin: 23.85
Vyse: 19.12
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