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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 246
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:10:26 AM | Message Detail
He was always more Nintendo than Capcom in the minds of people around here.

Then why is Link/Mega Man SFF so debated?
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:11:38 AM | Message Detail
Then why is Link/Mega Man SFF so debated?

...because he was always more Nintendo than Capcom in the minds of people around here. That's the point he's trying to make.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:12:07 AM | Message Detail
Phew, his percent raised a little. C'mon Yoshi, keep raising. You can't look this weak, you just can't.

If the match ends with about Mega at 60%, then I'd feel comfortable with my MM > Sonic pick.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:12:10 AM | Message Detail
I just find it silly how quickly people in the stats topic is to write someone off or call them a powerhouse even after they are REPEATEDLY proven wrong in later matches. You'd think more people wouldn't be so quick to jump to conclusions after every match... But that's the nature of the topic I guess...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:12:23 AM | Message Detail
I think Mega Man will finish with 62% at the least, and he could well finish in the 64%-65+% range.

Then why is Link/Mega Man SFF so debated?

It is a controversial thing. I wasn't really talking about that. I'm just saying that Mega Man has always been associated with Nintendo, especially by people around here.
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:12:24 AM | Message Detail
Err... debated in the sense that many people refuse to believe it.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:12:36 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
85-----1--------100.0000000
84-----1--------100.0000000
83-----1--------100.0000000
82-----8--------100.0000000
81-----17-------94.1176471
80-----14-------85.7142857
79-----37-------86.4864865
78-----50-------80.0000000
77-----142------91.5492958
76-----150------88.6666667
75-----218------88.9908257
74-----230------90.8695652
73-----300------82.6666667
72-----341------81.8181818
71-----414------77.0531401
70-----502------74.9003984
69-----600------73.5000000
68-----679------72.7540501
67-----758------70.8443272
66-----919------67.1381937
65-----964------66.9087137
64-----1071-----65.6395892
63-----1015-----61.7733990
62-----1172-----61.6040956
61-----1209-----60.1323408
60-----1212-----57.7557756
59-----1248-----54.1666667
58-----1267-----53.0386740
57-----1231-----50.2843217
56-----1185-----49.6202532
55-----1298-----51.1556240
54-----1132-----46.1130742
53-----1104-----46.1050725
52-----1008-----43.0555556
51-----1078-----42.3933210
50-----996------42.0682731
49-----874------37.4141876
48-----863------38.5863268
47-----757------34.2140026
46-----830------35.4216867
45-----676------33.2840237
44-----637------31.2401884
43-----588------26.5306122
42-----565------26.9026549
41-----457------23.8512035
40-----466------21.6738197
39-----455------21.3186813
38-----382------19.8952880
37-----332------17.1686747
36-----318------19.8113208
35-----296------16.2162162
34-----212------16.5094340
33-----228------14.4736842
32-----208------12.0192308
31-----137------11.6788321
30-----137------12.4087591
29-----93-------9.6774194
28-----96-------8.3333333
27-----91-------12.0879121
26-----63-------6.3492063
25-----47-------6.3829787
24-----47-------8.5106383
23-----40-------5.0000000
22-----24-------4.1666667
21-----17-------5.8823529
20-----14-------14.2857143
19-----9--------11.1111111

Everybody with a score of 18 or lower got the match wrong.

Good performace by the top tiers. The -3, -4, -5 and -6s all went perfect and the -7s were one person off perfect. Next we've got high 80s and low 90s and slowly fades as you go down.

Only three people fell off the Top 50 today. day25366, Attacker225 and Celandir didn't have Sonic winning the match today.
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From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:14:03 AM | Message Detail
He was always more Nintendo than Capcom in the minds of people around here.

Indeed. Anyone who can clearly remember the NES days knows that at that time there were "Nintendo" games, which meant games that could be played on a Nintendo. Virtually no one cared if it was Capcom, Nintendo, or Konami.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:14:44 AM | Message Detail
Anyone who can clearly remember the NES days knows that at that time there were "Nintendo" games, which meant games that could be played on a Nintendo. Virtually no one cared if it was Capcom, Nintendo, or Konami.

WORD.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:15:02 AM | Message Detail
Yeesh. I had no idea I was posting such an established, agreeable belief. I guess the Blue Bomber is Nintendo's #4.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:15:20 AM | Message Detail
Hmm, I said that I'd give MM the nod if he got over 60%, and it looks like he's primed to do it. I never bought Link/MM SFF, and I still don't buy it...but Lord, if MM's *adjusted* is valid, Gordon Freeman either made the godliest of jumps or I'd have him break 40% on Link.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:15:47 AM | Message Detail
You'd think more people wouldn't be so quick to jump to conclusions after every match... But that's the nature of the topic I guess...

It was stated by people that they expected Mega Man's stock would go up (relative to Sonic, specifically) this rouund (including myself). Though I didn't expect this much of a blowout in favor of Mega Man.

And on the Nintendo/Capcom thing, that was why I expected Mega Man to also benefit from "The Boost" as well as the Nintendo (and possibly Sonic) characters, and why I was even more shocked at how well Leon did.
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From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:17:28 AM | Message Detail
Perhaps Gordon Freeman simply SFFs everybody in votes from the "wearing glasses" demographic... >_>
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:17:32 AM | Message Detail
And don't even get me started on if Mega Man boosted. Though I really doubt he did like the other Ninty, looking at Conker. Unless he should have been unadjusted last year and now he's just boosting closer to the adjusted.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:17:58 AM | Message Detail
Things are looking quite interesting for the next round in pretty much all of the matches save Crono/Vincent -- although I think that'll be good just to see how well Vincent is able to do.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:18:21 AM | Message Detail
What people always forgot about was, while he didn't look so hot against Leon (compared to our expectations), he did better than many expectations against Conker, too. Putting his matches against Yoshi and Conker together, Mega Man's not looking bad at all...and, through him, Leon and Gordon aren't either.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:19:41 AM | Message Detail
Considering Crono wasn't able to SFF Magus or possibly Zidane and that FF7 > CT, I'm intrigued to see how Vincent does.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:20:11 AM | Message Detail
While I know that there are those who said Leon would be strong, and I now accept it as true, I still have some trouble conceiving it.
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From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:20:39 AM | Message Detail
Yeesh. I had no idea I was posting such an established, agreeable belief. I guess the Blue Bomber is Nintendo's #4.

I think it's just that the people who agree with you are speaking up vocally, since this subject has been hotly debated in the past. =P
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:20:42 AM | Message Detail
I'm sure Crono did SFF Magus by a few points at least.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:20:47 AM | Message Detail
"I just find it silly how quickly people in the stats topic is to write someone off or call them a powerhouse"

Amen, go Mega Man.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:20:50 AM | Message Detail
Megaman is SFFing Yoshi..

You do know that.
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"Mace isn't even better than Dooku" ~ LightSnake
"Obi-Wan is stronger than Mace" ~ DarthLampe
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:20:57 AM | Message Detail
Considering Crono wasn't able to SFF Magus

For a second there I was wondering where that idea came from, then I realized that Magus was quite a distance away from his 2003 number. =p

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:21:49 AM | Message Detail
Heh, I'm assuming Magus 2k5 = 2k4 here, for better or for worse.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:22:35 AM | Message Detail
Gone to bed now...Yoshi, Leon, and Tidus: rank them.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:22:38 AM | Message Detail
I'm having a tough time envisioning Leon giving Yoshi any kind of match. In a year where Master Chief struggles with Donkey Kong, Leon Kennedy gives Yoshi a match? Honestly, I could italicize half the words in this post and it wouldn't do the craziness justice.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:23:19 AM | Message Detail
"Megaman is SFFing Yoshi..

You do know that."

Nope. I'm not sure that I believe it. I'll need full stats before I decide something like that... Maybe Mega Man is pissed and he wants another shot at Seph.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:23:51 AM | Message Detail
If unadjusted Magus 2k4 = Magus 2k5, then Knuckles didn't rise significantly and Squall has actually fallen, while DMC3 hasn't done much for Dante and Vincent is more below Aeris than some would think.

I'd think he lost a couple of points against Crono.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:24:12 AM | Message Detail
If you believe that Link can SFF Mega Man, you better believe that Mega Man can SFF Yoshi. Yoshi would have plenty of breathing room vs Leon.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:25:07 AM | Message Detail
Accepting Magus' unadjusted value for last year would put Knuckles way too low IMO (even if you boost him).

From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 3:22:38 AM | Message Detail | #176
I'm having a tough time envisioning Leon giving Yoshi any kind of match. In a year where Master Chief struggles with Donkey Kong, Leon Kennedy gives Yoshi a match? Honestly, I could italicize half the words in this post and it wouldn't do the craziness justice.


Exactly.

I guess Leon is one of those "Spanish Inquisition" types. Sorta like Crono was for most the first year.
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:25:50 AM | Message Detail
Damn, the NN have really been tearing up this contest, though. All that's left is Snake > Bowser to seal the deal (Crono > Vincent is a formality).
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:26:15 AM | Message Detail
"If you believe that Link can SFF Mega Man, you better believe that Mega Man can SFF Yoshi."

Yeah, "if".
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:27:07 AM | Message Detail
"All that's left is Snake > Bowser to seal the deal"

Thank god that won't happen.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:27:20 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't be too surprised to learn that Mega Man is SFFing Yoshi. Hell, that would probably mean something like that happened with Link/Mega Man.

I'm just not going to bother with any sort of projection on Mega Man and just let his match against Sonic speak for itself. Man, trying to make sense of some of this stuff can do quite a number on the brain.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:28:05 AM | Message Detail
Thank god that won't happen.

I have a hard time putting Kirby over Zelda, but you're entitled to your opinion. = /
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:28:23 AM | Message Detail
Well, signs point to both right now. I've been a firm believer in Mega/Link SFF... it's why I have Mega Man > Crono, obviously. Heh. Lovin how Mega Man's still going up... but I think the daylight will help Yoshi get above Leon.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:28:31 AM | Message Detail
Mario, Bowser, Crono, Mega Man / Mario, Crono / Mario

That's how my remaining bracket looks. Snake's performance really put a damper on that Bowser upset, but I still have some hope the Koopa King can pull that one off.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:28:48 AM | Message Detail
I can't discount Mega Man/Yoshi SFF. Yoshi'd be expected to get about 64% based on previous years' data, and while he might get the day vote and make it, he might not. SFF isn't the only explanation, but it is an obvious one.

In fact, it's actually looking like Yoshi might underperform here by roughly the same 10% (relative) that Mega Man did against Link. That's circumstantial evidence, for anyone willing to go there.
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From: Lopen | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:30:32 AM | Message Detail
Er... maybe not above Leon, but closer.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: chaos knight | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:34:50 AM | Message Detail
Damn. All Mega Man has to do now is beat Sonic and it looks like Gordon Freeman might then end up destroying the fabric of the universe next year.
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Future sig pending
...I guess
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:36:23 AM | Message Detail
At the 35 minute mark:

Leon Kennedy: 33.75%
Yoshi: 31.39%
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:37:31 AM | Message Detail
I could also postulate that Gordon Freeman suffers from 'Kirby syndrome', in that he leapfrogs over the person that beats him from last year. He was more powerful than Tina in 2003, more powerful than Max Payne in 2004 (Max used Rockstar rSFF against Vercetti, OBVIOUSLY <_____<), and now he's looking to blow past Sam Fisher here in 2005. He never wins, but he keeps on learning.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:40:06 AM | Message Detail
There's been a very large number of surprising results, but the "big picture" of this contest has gone pretty much as expected.

The characters' stocks have fluctuated a lot (people having/losing/regaining faith in various characters, and redoubting again), but pre-contest expectations have called the important outcomes (outside of Magus and Kirby, mostly) fairly well.


He never wins, but he keeps on learning.

More Wile E. Coyote parallels.
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:40:53 AM | Message Detail
What happens after he's done facing Link ten years from now? This universe won't be around forever... holy **** I better go get laid.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:41:54 AM | Message Detail
Actually it also sounds kinda like a Saiyan.

Getting the crap kicked out of him only makes him stronger.

Someday Gordon might go SSJ, and destroy the world as the prophecies of various posters have stated.
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From: creativename | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:42:48 AM | Message Detail
This calls for a new law.

Gordon Freeman Always Increases.
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:44:04 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man is about to hit 70%.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:44:15 AM | Message Detail
69%?!

SLOW DOWN ANY TIME, MEGA MAN.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:44:36 AM | Message Detail
This calls for a new law.

Gordon Freeman Always Increases.


You forgot the most important part, "Yet Still Loses."

GFAIYSL.

If that's not catchy, I don't know what is.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: chaos knight | Posted: 9/12/2005 12:45:16 AM | Message Detail
Aside from fighting CATS, I'd want to see Gordon vs. Magus next year for some reason. >_>
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Future sig pending
...I guess
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