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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 246
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 3:27:02 PM | Message Detail
Talk about low-budget flights! No food or movies? I'm outta here! I like running better!

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*


Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
---
Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Undeniable | Posted: 9/11/2005 3:28:26 PM | Message Detail
TRUST ME AND WE CAN ESCAPE FROM THE CIIIIIIIIIITY!
---
"[Zelos] clearly should be writing in his book of dark poetry and slitting his wrists with a cruxis crystal - meisnewbie
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/11/2005 3:46:20 PM | Message Detail
Where's that quote from, Slow?
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Undeniable | Posted: 9/11/2005 3:47:17 PM | Message Detail
SA2:B
---
"[Zelos] clearly should be writing in his book of dark poetry and slitting his wrists with a cruxis crystal - meisnewbie
From: FourthDeus | Posted: 9/11/2005 3:47:21 PM | Message Detail
Sonic Adventure 2.
---
5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
From: RPGGamer0 | Posted: 9/11/2005 3:47:30 PM | Message Detail
What does everyone think Yoshi is going to beat Mega Man by? Like 20%? 30%? I think 22.51%, personally.


~RPGGamer~
From: RevolverAk47 | Posted: 9/11/2005 3:47:51 PM | Message Detail
tifa came within 5 votes of sonic that update, wow, damn you FF vote stuffers!
---
- - -
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 9/11/2005 3:50:05 PM | Message Detail
Yay
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 9/11/2005 3:52:23 PM | Message Detail
I think Yoshi will get 53% on Megaman, RPG.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:01:14 PM | Message Detail
Well...Tifa's got a long, ardorous climb to get Sonic under 56%, but I think she'll make it. Or at least get close...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:12:57 PM | Message Detail
****, we're heading into some bad updates for Sonic.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:16:03 PM | Message Detail
Sonic owns the day vote, so of course he's NO GOOD with the night vote. This was to be expected.
---
Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:36:45 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:38:06 PM | Message Detail
I can't wait for the next round to begin. We're kicking it off with the biggest bracket buster (Mario/Samus) and ending it with another one (Sonic/Mega Man).
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:39:46 PM | Message Detail
Tomorrow is a very important match for Megaman. He has to do as good or better than Sonic did against Tifa.

Basically, he's screwed. RIP, Blue Bomber. I'll always think you're awesome.

---
Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: TheKoolAidShoto | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:40:09 PM | Message Detail
Sonic? Lose?

THATS NO GOOD!!!
---
HaloKiller: Gamefaqs user who got owned in the span of two posts.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:41:34 PM | Message Detail
I think Mega Man will overperform tomorrow and prove that Leon is a strong character.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:42:28 PM | Message Detail
Mega with almost 60% tomorrow. YES. DO NOT DOUBT THE MAN.
---
Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: meche313 | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:46:14 PM | Message Detail
I hope Yoshi comes very close to the upset.
---
That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:49:27 PM | Message Detail
Should be a good match, but I doubt Yoshi will ever have a chance. 45% seems probable, though.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 77/88 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:50:59 PM | Message Detail
Yoshi isn't going to stand much of a chance tomorrow.

---
“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth
From: sidharta | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:52:52 PM | Message Detail
Tifa held her own quite well, despite her total choke job against Luigi last round.

Either Sonic hasn't increased by much, or Luigi is making a legendary boost, in Cloud 2k3 style.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:53:31 PM | Message Detail
I just find it ridiculously hard to believe that Jill is less popular then Leon which makes Megaman look awful in my eyes.
From: Lopen | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:53:49 PM | Message Detail
If Link can SFF Mega Man, you bet your arse Mega Man can SFF Yoshi... heh. Mega Man with over 60%!
---
Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:03:28 PM | Message Detail
I just find it ridiculously hard to believe that Jill is less popular then Leon which makes Megaman look awful in my eyes.

Even though Leon's current game is all the rave of RE fans? Jill may have had a higher peak of popularity or may have BEEN more popular before, but right now, it's apparently all about Leon. 35% isn't THAT big a deal anyways. I mean, Tommy Vercetti was able to get 33% on Mega Man back in 2k3. What's wrong with Leon Kennedy of RE fame getting 35?
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:09:16 PM | Message Detail
Draco: Sonic over Megaman would wreck a ton more brackets than Mario beating Samus as far as the board is concerned.
---
Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:10:29 PM | Message Detail
Mario beating Samus would wreck plenty of board brackets. Samus beating Mario would break many casual's brackets.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:11:30 PM | Message Detail
Whoever wins, brackets lose.

However, Sonic/Megaman was a LOT more lopsided in the BOP.
---
Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:13:08 PM | Message Detail
I think the prediction percentage for Mario/Samus will be lower than Mega Man/Sonic, if Samus wins (and regardless of who wins in Mega Man/Sonic).
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:28:18 PM | Message Detail
20XX Division Round 3 - Match 56 – (1)Mega Man vs. (3)Yoshi
Flutter Kick! Flutter Kick!!!

Mega Man
Round 1 – vs. Conker (Mega Man: 76.02% - Conker: 23.98%)
Round 2 – vs. Leon (Mega Man: 64.56% - Leon: 35.44%)

Mega Man looks very bad in his match with Leon…ouch.

Yoshi
Round 1 – vs. Laharl (Yoshi: 73.66% - Laharl: 26.34%)
Round 2 – vs. Pac-Man (Yoshi: 72.83% - Pac-Man: 27.17%)

Making Ocelot look like he’ll struggle with Laharl. Silly Pac-Man

Alright, we have an unimpressive looking Mega Man vs. an impressive looking Yoshi. As much as I hate to say it, Yoshi on his best day couldn’t beat Mega Man on his worst. Last I checked, Mega Man was an elite in these Contests.

“But Moltar!” You scream, “Leon couldn’t even get 60% on Gordon Freeman, and then Mega failed to double Leon!” Well, Gordon DID have Half-Life 2 come out since the last Contest, and people DO love the snot out of that game. It’s not too farfetched to think that Gordon has gone way up, and that Leon was underestimated in his match against Mega Man. I still think Mega Man is the strong elite he is, especially after beating Conker like that. Yoshi should do well though. Snake got 43% on Mega last year, and Zero got 44% on the Blue Bomber in 2004, so it will be interesting to see where Yoshi fits in. To think, Yoshi being a near-elite! That would make my day.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Mega Man will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Mega Man: 60% - Yoshi: 40%



Ulti’s Analysis

To make a good writeup or not to make a good writeup, that is the question now that my hands hurt like hell from writing thank you cards yesterday with no break :(

Hmm. I feel like being lazy, so I'll just say that I think Mega Man will underperform and be done with it. Not only do I believe that Sonic will shut up all of the Tifa fans, but I also think that Mega Man is in for a surprise as well. But more on that when the time comes.

Prediction: Mega Man with 59.99%



Soul’s Analysis

Round 2 Results

Mega Man defeated Leon Kennedy: 64.56% - 35.44%

Yoshi defeated Pac-Man: 72.83% - 27.17%


Mega Man came off of a disappointing win over Leon last round. You know, the same character that couldn't break 60% on Gordon Freeman. Predictions of Mega Man winning the contest came to an abrupt halt after this. Not only was Mega Man weaker, but the now he has to heavily worry about Sonic next round. And even if he somehow manages to "upset" Sonic next round, he's basically a sitting duck against Crono the round afterward. Also, it seems as though many people believe (finally) that Mega Man should not have been adjusted last year. If his match against Link was legit, Sonic would be ahead of him by more then 1% in the X-Stats. Add in a possible Sonic boost, and well, I wouldn't want to be in Mega Man's shoes right about now.

But even before all that happens, he has to worry about defeating Yoshi! Although Yoshi has defeated two fodder to get to round 3, he still looked mildly impressive. Of course, you have to take FFF into consideration here as well. Although, I believe you can assume that Yoshi got a boost because everyone around him (ie: Nintendo characters from the Mario franchise) all got a boost.

I'm pretty positive that Mega Man should have no trouble in winning the match against Yoshi. I find it hard that Yoshi could beat Mega Man. With that said, I know it's going to be a close match as well. If Mega Man can keep Yoshi under 40%, he looks like he can defeat Sonic next round. Well, we got to wait and see I guess.

My prediction: Mega Man wins with 56.50% of the vote. Blue Blur > Blue Bomber.
---
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Sonic vs. Tifa - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (76/88)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:28:32 PM | Message Detail
Outback’s Analysis

This division was never in question from the start. I guess I'm kinda glad to have some sort of normalcy here.

Mega Man with 63.00%



Inviso’s Analysis

Mega Man is actually one of the four characters people mainly believe will win the tournament, yet in the past two rounds, he’s performed rather badly. Against Conker, he performed weakly, a little lower than Crono…but Mega Man always over performs in round 1 and then does badly later. And this over performance is Mega Man’s weakest yet. And then, in round 2, he goes on to fail at doubling a character that did rather poorly against Gordon Freeman. Yoshi on the other side of the division has blown out two characters thus far, the only non-noble niner to do so. He has actually shown a good example of a Nintendo boost. He’ll definitely be giving Mega Man a run for his money, but I think the Blue Bomber will win this match, even if it is close when he does so. Too bad I’ve disliked every character in this division besides Leon and Gordon, who are already eliminated.

My Bracket: Mega Man
My Vote: Mega Man
My Prediction: Mega Man with 54.19%



Tnote’s Analysis

Mega Man is done overperforming, as the 2nd round is over. He egged it up against Zero last year, and will probably do the same this year. Yoshi thrashed Pac Man like Luigi said he would, but like Bowser said he couldn't. Yoshi should be thrilled if he can crack 45%, but I do not expect the Nintendo boost to be that prominent.

Pick: Mega Man with 58.27%



Vlado’s Analysis

Eh... Well, some think that Yoshi can win here, thanks to the huge Nintendo increase, but please... This is Mega Man, it's not some random midcarder. Yoshi is very well liked among the Nintendo characters on
GameFAQs, but I doubt it will be enough to threaten the Blue Bomber. Now, if it were Ganon, it could have been possible. Mega Man didn't impress against Leon, but what says Leon isn't strong? After all, he's the star of a game that was Gamecube-exclusive so far. With the Nintendo increase, it makes sense that he'd be stronger than one would initially think.

Yoshi beat Laharl and then Pac-Man, breaking 70% on both, but not impressing in either of the matches. This division is so weak it makes me sick... I'm still bitter than Ocelot lost to someone like Pac-Man. What the hell happened there! X-Stats fail. I'm absolutely sure that Ocelot would've done better on Yoshi than Pac-Man did. But whatever. Nintendo or not, Yoshi can't beat Rockman. He's not Master Chief, after all.

Predcited percentage: Mega Man with 56.19%
---
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Sonic vs. Tifa - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (76/88)
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:34:33 PM | Message Detail
Against Conker, he performed weakly, a little lower than Crono…but Mega Man always over performs in round 1 and then does badly later. And this over performance is Mega Man’s weakest yet.

What?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:36:02 PM | Message Detail
So does anyone think without TJF Sonic would've almost broke 60% on Tifa?
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:39:31 PM | Message Detail
No, he wouldn't have. TJF isn't even that apparent in the picture.

But does anyone think Mega Man's picture might help him overperform against Yoshi? I mean, he's about the Hadouken him into oblivion, similar to what he had against Snake last year.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:42:45 PM | Message Detail
Yoshi is about to throw an egg at him. Snake looked like he was only going to dodge.
---
17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:43:12 PM | Message Detail
Yoshi's winning tomorrow.
---
I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:44:45 PM | Message Detail
It doesn't even look like Yoshi's going to get it off in time, or that he's even going to throw it in Mega Man's general direction.

I'm still not sure what to expect from this match tomorrow.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:58:32 PM | Message Detail
Megaman will win,easy or hard.
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:08:24 PM | Message Detail
Man, we're already at 90,000 and we've still got 6 hours left. Nice to see. However, it doesn't look like it'll beat Snake/Zelda. That match must've been very heavily end-loaded. It's 3000 behind now.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:08:36 PM | Message Detail
We're still splitting Mario/Zero and Snake/Zelda in vote totals, though we're catching up to the former. I guess we're on pace for our highest scoring one yet, unless this one turns out as front-loaded as Mario/Zero, which slowed massively at this point.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:10:16 PM | Message Detail
Bah, I looked an hour ahead on Snake/Zelda, my bad.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: therealmnm | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:15:41 PM | Message Detail
The initial thought when looking at that picture is that Mega Man is about to blast Yoshi, but Yoshi is in a much better position than Snake was.
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: RevolverAk47 | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:17:22 PM | Message Detail
i garuntee yoshi will lead at first. I mean, Nintendo characters that are expected to do well on the other usually do. Then megaman will pull away like sonic
---
- - -
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:17:56 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man is better with the early morning vote than Yoshi is.
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:18:00 PM | Message Detail
Sonic never trailed, FYI.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:18:18 PM | Message Detail
Nah, Yoshi won't lead. Mega Man is strong with the first night vote.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own."
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are the same thing."
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:21:53 PM | Message Detail
Whoever wins, brackets lose.

made me chuckle...

>_>
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:23:12 PM | Message Detail
Tifa just tied Sonic. He'll fall below 57% soon. =[
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:14:13 PM | Message Detail
Under 57 he goes...Tif'll just have to keep pushing til he's under 56...sadly, she won't make it...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:19:39 PM | Message Detail
I don't mind Tifa pushing down Sonic with her night vote. Sonic already won, and I need him to look a bit weaker of Mega Man is going to pull through. And it has the effect of making my oracle a bit better.

Do you guys think Yoshi will overperform a bit tomorrow? He might make Mega Man look pretty weak.
---
Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
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