??

Actually it's on pace for just under 107,000
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

And you know what really stands out about the RE series is how Jill has a COMMANDING dominance of popularity in her first game, even though she shares it as well. I find myself often forgetting that Chris is even IN that game.

The relationship between Chris and Jill is not necessarily the relationship between Leon and Claire, if they would necessarily outrank each other here at all (Chris and Leon have never been in, and we all know nominations aren't exactly the best measurement of success). I wouldn't put it past Claire to outrank Leon based on just RE2 alone, but when you give Leon RE4 it becomes no contest.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

That's not nearly the case in RE2. No one forgets that Leon was there.

Exactly. That's why I'm saying that Jill's dominance of popularity in her game is noteworthy.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

And Code Veronica did sell slightly better. But in terms of actual popularity, it doesn't even touch RE4.
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT

CV sold 900,000 on the PS2, and 350K on the DC. RE4's barely over half a million.

Ah, the classic "more sales mean more strength" argument. It means more potential. It does not mean more strength.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: (5)Vincent Valentine

I don't see the problem of Leon only beating Claire 55-45.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

Jill also has Marvel vs Capcom 2, which I do think is significant enough to be mentioned, really.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef

Lead at 10K.
---
www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

Soooooo....link to IGN contest?
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"Frog > Samus, because Samus is a woman." - Dino Duck

I remembre that Goku got to teh Final Four in IGN's contest. XD
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

Yeah, Goku got beat by Dante, if I recall correctly. Wolverine lost in the Final Four to Snake as well.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.

Yeah, IGN's contest allowed characters who didn't originate from games...so the Final Four was:

Snake
Wolverine

Dante
Goku

Finals
Snake
Dante

Winner
Snake
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

LOL Goku badass. Every Pokémon is more badass than what he can ever be.
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg

Proving once and for all that Konami > Capcom!
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

IGN's PS2 Battle of the Badasses

http://ps2.ign.com/articles/629/629401p1.html
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

"That's not nearly the case in RE2. No one forgets that Leon was there."

I forgot he was there until someone told me. When I first learned Leon was to star in RE4 I was completely like "God, another new character as the lead? Why don't they stick to the characters that the fan already like?". Frankly, RE has always been about the girls you can play as.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Wow, sonic is doing really well. I guess megaman is going to become the underdog against sonic unless he can redeem himself against yoshi.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy

If we assume that Crono and Sonic are exact equals and say that Sonic finishes this match with precisely 57%, then Tifa would be expected to beat Master Chief in a 55/45 match. That's pretty believable from where I stand.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

Don't look for Mega Man to totally dominate Yoshi. He may even underperform by stats topic standards due to Yoshi being underrated, but I don't think it will matter once he faces Sonic.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I forgot he was there until someone told me. When I first learned Leon was to star in RE4 I was completely like "God, another new character as the lead? Why don't they stick to the characters that the fan already like?". Frankly, RE has always been about the girls you can play as.

You are a very unique case, I must say. Leon has been very popular ever since Resident Evil 2. By no means has he ever been overshadowed by another RE character, especially Claire from RE2. The response to him in RE4 was very well received and it only helped that his character improved dramatically over his rookie self in the previous game.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

I don't particularly buy Master Chief's position based off of a constant Crono. It puts Face CATS at nearly 20% on Link. Either that means Master Chief overperformed or Crono is in trouble.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.

As I've always said, I'd set Yoshi equal to Tifa or a little higher, so yeah, Mega's got to impress if he doesn't want to be the underdog. Yoshi being underrated has nothing to do with it, unless his increase was even bigger than Luigi's was.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

It does bring Master Chief over 31% on BL, which would be a reasonable boost to expect based on Halo 2, but that also means that Donkey Kong is over 30% on BL.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

It puts Face CATS at nearly 20% on Link. Either that means Master Chief overperformed or Crono is in trouble.

I'd put my money on the latter. It's not like Crono impressed me with his performance against Vercetti, either.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

Yoshi's increase shouldn't be very far off of luigi's. Their reasons to increase are practically the exact same.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy

Mario and Bowser's boosts seem to be particularly large, as well.

Of course, the biggest winner so far seems to be Kirby, but it'd be best to wait until the X-Sts come out.

Speaking of which, I can't wait to see how we're going to adjust Ness. Should be quite the interesting debate.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

The thing here is that matches are going to be filled with abnormalities. This is something I have been saying for awhile. Every contest has something weird and unexplainable happen, so there's a chance that Tifa/MC could be predicted as a 50/50 match and end up 60/40. Even cn will tell you, you can't use the stats to get an exact % of how a match should end, they can only tell you who will win (assuming they aren't very, very close and that nothing has happened to alter their strength radically) and can only give you a rough view of how badly it will be done.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

"By no means has he ever been overshadowed by another RE character, especially Claire from RE2."

then why was she in the contest instead of him? :)
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

On the contrary, Crono was very solid against Vercetti. In 2003 MC and Vercetti were almost even, in 2004 we don't have solid enough numbers, but evidence points to him staying the same at best... and then there's a 9-point difference against Crono all of a sudden.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

Speaking of which, I can't wait to see how we're going to adjust Ness. Should be quite the interesting debate.

Leave him where he is. I certainly won't be doubting Ness the next time he's paired off with a Playstation dead horse, but others will.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

then why was she in the contest instead of him? :)

Wasn't she only in 2k2? Because getting nominated in 2k2 doesn't really count as overshadowing.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy

If an adjustment must be made it should be to the level of 2k4 Ness. Theoretically he may be higher, yes, but it's the best number that we actually have and I'd rather take a number we know is a bit too low than make a guess and go too high.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

IIRC, assuming constant Kefka from the Spring, Crono's performance against Vercetti was more impressive than Sonic's against Diablo.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Vercetti underperformed by 5% against Kefka according to the unadjusted stats, and I have trouble believing that was all due to Kefka's Spring Contest and a higher seed. I think he dropped, and as such, I expected Crono to do more.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

If an adjustment must be made it should be to the level of 2k4 Ness. Theoretically he may be higher, yes, but it's the best number that we actually have and I'd rather take a number we know is a bit too low than make a guess and go too high.


2k4 Ness...through 2k5 Auron?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

But Ness probably won't be facing a Playstation dead horse next time... either way, one can make a very good argument for a possible Ness boost to be the deciding factor against CJ.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

As far as ness goes next year, I'm just going to assume cj = 2k4 vercetti. That's probably going to far though.
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"The idiots on gamefaqs are easy to find because they always quote themselves" - dragoontheguy

Vercetti underperformed by 5% against Kefka according to the unadjusted stats, and I have trouble believing that was all due to Kefka's Spring Contest and a higher seed. I think he dropped, and as such, I expected Crono to do more.

Yeah, but Kefka still makes Crono look better than Sonic...
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

2k4 Ness...through 2k5 Auron?

Well, was there SFF in Samus/Ganondorf and will there be in Mario/Samus? Shouldn't Ness have increased like every other Nintendo character? We don't really have answers to those questions.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Adjusting Ness shouldn't really be a big deal. We still know what his range of competition is. Getting his exact percentage right is only trivial. There are so many people around his strength anyways, many of those matches would still be toss-ups.

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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

*Looks at results*

Bwahahahahahaha.

All you Tifa nuts and overestimaters just got served.
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Mistress Aran

"Wasn't she only in 2k2? Because getting nominated in 2k2 doesn't really count as overshadowing."

There was still some sort of nomination process then and Claire made it in... and considering how well she did against Tidus at his height I'm going to say she had a better shot of making it through a normal nomination system that year than Leon.

Oh, BTW, the more I watch this contest the more it reminds me of 2k2. The characters are all over the place, any character that outperforms our expectations are automatically gods even if we have no idea how things really stand, and we are looking at a situation where Mario looks like a champion from time to time while having the most support from bracket makers by a mile. 80% over Zero is ridiculous. This contest really is out there.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

"2k4 Ness...through 2k5 Auron?"

Because Ganon wasn't possibly SFF'd by Samus who, should she lose to Mario, may herself not recieve SFF?
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Tifa got more on Vyse than Yoshi got on Laharl. I recall Vyse beating Laharl with around 60%.

Mega Man had better broken 60% on Yoshi tomorrow if he wants to stand a chance at Sonic.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 75/88. Today: Sonic, tomorrow: Mega Man

Well, was there SFF in Samus/Ganondorf and will there be in Mario/Samus?

Well, wait until Samus faces Sephiroth (if she does), and then we can make inferences from that. I'm thinking Ganondorf in the Spring might be overrated though, maybe due to Sephiroth being too high, but who knows?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Tifa got less on Luigi than Yoshi got on Luigi. Ergo, Yoshi > Tifa and as long as Mega Man manages 55% tomorrow he's good.

Not that I actually believe that, but it's no more flawed than thinking Vyse/Laharl would be a 60/40 match if it was held again this year.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Meh, I think if Mega Man gets 55% or so tomorrow, he'll be fine. If he gets 53% or less, he's in a little bit of trouble.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.

It's also possible that Luigi got a far bigger boost than Yoshi thanks to Super Mario 64 DS.

Why? They're both fully playable in it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.