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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 245
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:08:14 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and BTW... At current your argument boils down to "I read an article once, it said pictures make people click on things. It said next to nothing about how people will click when given an option especially when bias is invovled but it certianly said it makes them click, so you're an idiot. For saying that people can't figure out what they're voting for when it's named TWICE. 'K thx bye **** ***! Oh, and I'm better than you because you refuse to listen to me talk about some factor that's only remotely contected that has only the vaguest effect and is never applied in the fashion presented. Toodles."

Frankly, I'm not impressed and I don't believe any of that crap you dumped in the topic has the sort of far reaching effect implied by people who back the pic factor. I can see it changing a vote, maybe ten, maybe a hundred. I do not see 10,000 people saying "Well, it says 'Snake', but I'm going to vote for this Frog chap simply because it deviates from my expectations of Snake" especially when an equally* deviating picture had the effect of changing less than a mentionable number of votes.

That said, pics mean nothing.

*I'd actually call Solid **** more recognizable than whatever that was against Zelda
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:19:22 AM | Message Detail
I second that last statement. Heck, what he got against Manny wasn't brilliant, either. He even looked like he had a Metroid for a shoulder on that one.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:22:57 AM | Message Detail
...oh, and once the day vote kicks in, Aeris > Tifa anyone?
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:26:01 AM | Message Detail
I could be wrong, since I don't know what the time it's in the US, but shouldn't the day vote have already started?
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:30:50 AM | Message Detail
Finally above 53%
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:35:23 AM | Message Detail
Nice to see Sonic explode out of the gate with over 60%, too bad he couldn't maintain it .

But judging by the last few updates, Sonic is primed to start running away with it, & if that's the case, I guess Tifa 's day vote against Luigi was no fluke.
From: transience | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:37:01 AM | Message Detail
I think Sonic is stronger this year than in '03, so comparing Aeris and Tifa directly isn't going to work.
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.
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/11/2005 4:48:14 AM | Message Detail
Just curios, how much is Yoshi expected to get on Megaman? Because I know that Megaman will do at least 5% better than what he's expected to.
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:08:53 AM | Message Detail
Pics do matter. It's obvious. The only thing that's up for debate is how much or how little the influence each match.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:12:01 AM | Message Detail
Boy, the last few updates Sonic has been kicking ass. Up to 53.56%
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:15:59 AM | Message Detail
Go Sonic!
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: XIII_rocks | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:16:17 AM | Message Detail
XIII is cool: Sonic 4tcontest
XIII is cool: Iaf he beats Megaman he's in with a chance. Crono has dropped
Mr Lasastryke: So far Sonic isn't doing an exceptional job, to put it mildly. >_>
XIII is cool: he's doing better on tifa than he did on Aeris >_>
XIII is cool: I think he can beat Mario
XIII is cool: no, listen to theory
XIII is cool: Samus, by Xstats, is stronger than Mario
XIII is cool: BUT, Mario may well get the SFF on Samus
XIII is cool: If Mario wins, he's basically in the finals; He cant lose to Snake or Bowser
XIII is cool: If Sonic can get past Crono, it'll be close, because...
XIII is cool: SFF throws all stats out of the window
XIII is cool: if you extrapolate through other people after the contest, Im sure Samus would be > Mario
XIII is cool: but Mario beats her due to SFF
Mr Lasastryke: I see.
XIII is cool: Thus, Sonic has a shot against Mario
XIII is cool: even if Mario is stronger than Samus who has been proven to be stronger than Sonic
XIII is cool: it all comes down to whether or not the victory that Mario possibly gains over Samus is SFF or not.
Mr Lasastryke: Yeah...
XIII is cool: if it's just raw, mario power, Mario has the tournament in the bag
XIII is cool: Obviously if Samus wins she wins the tournament
XIII is cool: She'll possibly go on to take Sephiroth as well.
Mr Lasastryke: So you think Mario and Sonic will make the finals, right?
XIII is cool: I hope so, because then Sonic has a good shot
XIII is cool: If Mario wins and he gets more than 57% on Sonic, we can put it down to a complete lack of SFF in Mario/Samus
XIII is cool: and the fact that itds just raw killing power on Mario's part
XIII is cool: sure Sonic is an outsider but I reckon he has a good shot
Mr Lasastryke: Why do you reckon Sonic has a good shot?
XIII is cool: I just explained that >_>
Mr Lasastryke: No, you explained why Mario and Sonic can make the finals, which I understand. But if Mario > Samus and Samus > Sonic, I don't see how Sonic > Mario.
XIII is cool: I explained that. Mario gets SFF on Samus
XIII is cool: in which case, stats go out of the window
XIII is cool: ASS! :D
Mr Lasastryke: :D
XIII is cool: <_<
Mr Lasastryke: OK, but even without stats I wouldn't give Sonic too big a chance.
XIII is cool: Shadow got 45% on Mario
XIII is cool: unless youre going to say that Sonic is stronger than Shadow...
Mr Lasastryke: Yeah, maybe you're right, but it's just a feeling... Nintendo is very strong this year.
XIII is cool: Sonic has increased also
Mr Lasastryke: True... we'll see. How many points you got?
XIII is cool: *checks*
XIII is cool: 72>_>
Mr Lasastryke: I got 75! *points and laughs* :P
Mr Lasastryke: Who did you get wrong?
XIII is cool: *checks*
XIII is cool: CJ, GoW Kratos, Kefka, Kerrigan, Magus, Ocelot, Tidus, Kerrigan, Magus, Magus
XIII is cool: The knuckles upset really screwed me over.
Mr Lasastryke: Me too.
XIII is cool: As did VV winning the division. O_o
XIII is cool: im just glad sora beat Alucard>_>
Mr Lasastryke: You had Kerrigan making it to Round 3? O_O
XIII is cool: well yeah
XIII is cool: If she beat Vincent it was a given she would beat Dante

>__________>
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boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738
Formerly known as Xic, the leader of the l33t pwnat00rz eliminat00rz.
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:46:41 AM | Message Detail
And now it's above 54%. Go Sonic!
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:48:51 AM | Message Detail
Now Sonic looking like a potential champ!

Good stuff....

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Joker-Why are Sonic fanboys the most annoying?
n00bAvenger-Because they have Smurf.Which is the worst fanboy you can have
From: VectorAgent | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:52:45 AM | Message Detail
He's looking like a potential champ? Why? Because he's beating a weak character?
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:55:38 AM | Message Detail
Wow, correct me if I'm wrong, but this match is currently on pace to outscore Mario vs Zero and Snake vs Zelda.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: ernest | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:57:33 AM | Message Detail
sonic>Big jugs
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:57:58 AM | Message Detail
Tifa has to be stronger than Sonic 2k4 to look like a potential champ...and I don't believe that at all. Since round two, I've thought Sonic = 37% on BL and Tifa = 31%...that would give him 58% against her. Not sure if he'll get there, but he'll come close. This match isn't impressive for either character.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: XIII_rocks | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:59:32 AM | Message Detail
From: ernest | Posted: 9/11/2005 1:57:33 PM | Message Detail
sonic>Big jugs


I thought you said Sonic > Big Rigs. >_>
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boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738
Formerly known as Xic, the leader of the l33t pwnat00rz eliminat00rz.
From: ernest | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:00:19 AM | Message Detail
no big rigs>everything because of it's winner power
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:09:27 AM | Message Detail
It seems that the most crucial match of this contest will be Mario vs Samus.But everyone knew that from the beginning right?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:12:17 AM | Message Detail
My goodness, Tifa just lost .36% in a span of ten minutes. Even Street Fighter isn't this terrible with the morning vote...
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:16:28 AM | Message Detail
So I wake up to Tifa keeping Sonic under 55%. Pretty nice. Sure, she is going to be pwned by the day vote, but his chance at getting 60% is non-existent. I am very disappointed at Squall's inability to gather about 1300 more votes, but hey, nobody's perfect. I suppose in the grand scheme having Vincent win probably is beneficial to my chances at ultimately making the leaderboard, but I know there is no chance that I can win now =(

Stupid, stupid Magus. You overrated, useless albino bastard.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 77/88 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:23:53 AM | Message Detail
Not only are votes pouring in, but Sonic is just shooting up.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:37:37 AM | Message Detail
Sonic breaks 55%.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: goku z | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:38:09 AM | Message Detail
Whee, Sonic over 55%!

I bet he will end up pulling 57% of the vote, which makes him look good for Mega Man. Gotta go fast! Gotta go fast!
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Summer Contest 2005 Winner: Mario
Mario will SFF Samus, and pull it out against Crono.
From: ernest | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:39:55 AM | Message Detail
well sonic has killed his second FF7 character and he's killed 3 overall. he also has a knack at killing fighting game characters. i believe he's dispatched 4 of these
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:41:03 AM | Message Detail
Sonic did get slaughtered by Cloud though. =X~
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:41:42 AM | Message Detail
Wow, not even 10 AM and Sonic's already over 55%. Amazing.

57% means Luigi would get 60% on Sonic instead of the projected 66%. That'd be a great boost for Luigi, as it translates as "very high 20s on BL". Now to see whether Yoshi follows suit...
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:44:39 AM | Message Detail
57% means Luigi would get 60% on Sonic instead of the projected 66%.

... What the ****?

>_>
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:50:42 AM | Message Detail
Mario/Zero at 6:45 - 23256

Sonic/ Tifa at 6:45 - 24358

Snake/Zelda at 6:45 - 25219

Lookin' good.

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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:51:05 AM | Message Detail
Hey Victor,Magus really costed you.Damn him,I also had him winning the division...
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:51:55 AM | Message Detail
What don't you understand, exactly?
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:53:34 AM | Message Detail
You meant to say Sonic would get 60% instead of 66%... not Luigi. We know what you meant though, obviously.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 77/88 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:55:59 AM | Message Detail
Oh, okay. Didn't see that.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 6:56:26 AM | Message Detail
Whoops. >_>

Where did the 66% figure come from?
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:02:26 AM | Message Detail
Yesterday's match was the fourth lowest prediction percentage in BOP history, with a whopping 6.58% (10 brackets out of 152). Vincent was the third favorite, behind Magus (118) and Squall (19).

If Crono gets a prediction percentage lower than 29.46% next round, this'll be the BOP's best performance ever compared to the overall brackets.

Now, for some BOP upset prediction percentages for upcoming matches... some of these you won't believe.

Mario over Samus: 31.58%
Bowser over Snake: 19.08%
Sonic over Megaman: 11.84%
Megaman over Crono: 13.82%
Sonic over Crono: 1.97%
Crono winning the main bracket: 25.66%
Mario winning the main bracket: 10.53%
Cloud over Link: 18.42%
Samus over Sephiroth: 9.87%
Mario over Sephiroth: 0.66%
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:02:49 AM | Message Detail
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 9:56:26 AM | #136
Whoops. >_>

Where did the 66% figure come from?


Last year's X-Sts.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: LuigiGoterelli | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:07:32 AM | Message Detail
At the risk of opening up a whole new can of worms, I figured this would be a fun question to go along with the pic factor thing. We saw how Kirby got the Ice Climbers costume against Bowser. So, let's say that we nominate Ditto the Pokemon for next year's contest. What happens if he ends up against Link...using his Transform attack and thereby having the exact same picture? Does he still get smashed like the fodder he is, or does he steal a ton of votes?

It would never happen, but it would be awesome...
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:07:47 AM | Message Detail
Oh, I forgot one.

Snake over Mario/Samus: 0.66%
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: ernest | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:08:54 AM | Message Detail
the prediction percentage for cloud is pretty lame
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:09:30 AM | Message Detail
From: LuigiGoterelli | Posted: 9/11/2005 10:07:32 AM | #139
At the risk of opening up a whole new can of worms, I figured this would be a fun question to go along with the pic factor thing. We saw how Kirby got the Ice Climbers costume against Bowser. So, let's say that we nominate Ditto the Pokemon for next year's contest. What happens if he ends up against Link...using his Transform attack and thereby having the exact same picture? Does he still get smashed like the fodder he is, or does he steal a ton of votes?

It would never happen, but it would be awesome...


If it were an actual battle... but this is a popularity contest, so that is entirely worthless.

Besides, Ditto sucks, because not only does he use up a turn using transform, but his max HP stays at 300, which is ridiculously low.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:09:41 AM | Message Detail
Snake over Mario/Samus: 0.66%

Wow, I'd think that our board is smarter than that.

=P
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:10:26 AM | Message Detail
If Ditto got Link's exact same picture I'd see him above 20%.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:12:29 AM | Message Detail
Not a bad performance by Sonic today, especially since I decided to go high with his Oracle pick. Anyway, now that Tifa looks mortal for the second straight match...

Zelda vs. Tifa. Who wins?
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:14:12 AM | Message Detail
Even there, CJayC would NEVER let that happen. All the nominations for Naked Snake went to Big Boss instead, and the Dark Samus board rally in the villain contest got owned by CJayC arguably never touching MP2 and not knowing she went under another name. So yeah, CJayC is really picky about this.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: LuigiGoterelli | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:17:41 AM | Message Detail
If it were an actual battle... but this is a popularity contest, so that is entirely worthless.

That's not quite what I was getting at. You know how the theme for this round seemed to be battle pictures? I figure if that's the theme for the round which has Link against Ditto, that would be the only way to rationalize Ditto having Link's picture.

You can take the "using Transform attack" part out of my post though, because it isn't crucial to the question anyway. In fact, let's just do it this way: What happens if two different characters have the exact same picture?
From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:20:00 AM | Message Detail
Good question, but I think the name would be enough.

Goes backwards too, I don't think the "Kratos Auron" typo affected Kratos any, because it was clearly not Auron in the picture.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:22:51 AM | Message Detail
Sonic storming up with the morning vote. He should end with 57-58% if he keeps it up. A little better than I expected from Sonic.

Now Mega Man needs to impress....actually, Yoshi needs to impress, because Yoshi > Mega Man.

Go Yoshi, break 40% on Mega! And Vincent had about 12% of the brackets, amazing, yet expected.
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Sonic vs. Tifa - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (76/88)
From: Mugen no Jyuunin | Posted: 9/11/2005 7:23:24 AM | Message Detail
65.73% O_o

Excellent.

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<_<
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