About this time, Tifa had 57% on Luigi. I hope this means that Sonic still can get around 57%.
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg

Oh, and since it needs to be stated... as a group we're like hte guys that go to a football game painted head-to-toe in our team's colors.

You're trying to say that fanaticism/the concept of being a fan is a powerful force, and this is indeed true. And it obvious that we are not discussing extreme differences in levels of performance. Tifa's strength ain't gonna double, or something like that, no matter what. But no one's talking about anything that extreme. And monetary stake>fan stake. Presentation influences money, thus it can influence favoritism; presentation has an effect on the direction that money flows, and it has an effect on the way that poll votes would go. (the problem with discussing this effect being that such discussion can have little utility, given the unpredictability of this effect)


Name > Pic by such a factor as Link > Tanner

Hmmm...actually I think that in many cases, they would be fairly equivalent.

e.g., a match of Link vs. Mario where you only had pics and no names, and voting was done by clicking a radial under the image; or a match between those two with no pics, and just names. I wouldn't expect the results to differ by too much.

Note that I intentionally gave an example using universally well-known characters, as the same example with Jay Solano vs. Tanner might give you quite different results. And the outcome of the pic scenario for those characters would likely depend a lot on the actual pictures used.

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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Well hey, that's okay, cn just basically sai dthat pic factor is so unpridictable that the same picture could bone Diablo against Sonic but give him the bones to stand up to Ganon and it wouldn't at all be unusal or unexplainable by some imaginary force that can't ever be tracked.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

what was the final Vincent - Squall score?

Vincent 50.59%
Squall 49.41%

Vincent 54%
Dante 46%

Squall 53.80%
Knuckles 46.20%

Knuckles 50.86%
Magus 49.14%

Can someone help me with the stats here?

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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg

From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:10:22 AM | Message Detail | #049
There WERE pic-believers for that match, except Ganondorf had gotten the same picture against Diablo in his match, so it was discredited.

In fairness to Ganon, it was discussed prior to the match how awful Ganon looked. Diablo may have looked bad for both matches, but Sonic looked fine. Though I myself think Sonic would beat Ganon by roughly the amount implied.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

I hope this means that Sonic still can get around 57%.

I would expect Sonic to get to 55-56% tops and then Tifa bring that down a little with the second night vote. Still, I believe this speaks more of his strength than any weakness. I'm one to believe he's now capable of taking the contest.


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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

I agree that pics have a much more significant influence among characters with less of a reputation, those such as Mario and Link like you gave an example of, are much less likely to be affected by such things, but a match like Vyse/Laharl like we had last year, I think the pic can have a very profound affect on the match.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

thanks Zylo
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Vincent's Path to Victory: Defeated - Kerrigan, Dante, Squall. Round 4 - (2)Crono

O_o

Sonic got almost no votes that update.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

division x-stats:

Vincent: 50.00
Squall: 49.41
Dante: 46.00
Knuckles: 45.65
Magus: 44.86
Terra: 26.22
Geno: 24.86
Kerrigan: 21.00

---
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 9/11/2005 5:12:58 AM | Message Detail | #053
Well hey, that's okay, cn just basically sai dthat pic factor is so unpridictable that the same picture could bone Diablo against Sonic but give him the bones to stand up to Ganon

Actually stuff like that does happen in internet marketing; something that works in one case might not in another. Though, this is a much simpler scenario (mainly because we're not discussing one website's population vs. another's, or one demographic vs. another), and so effects should be much more consistent (in terms of a certain pic simply being "good" or "bad"). But this can't be verified without data.


it wouldn't at all be unusal or unexplainable by some imaginary force that can't ever be tracked.

Oh, it could be tracked all right. Ceej just chooses not to bother, as he has no interest, and thus no incentive to do so. The only time he's ever given us any data of that nature was the AOL/Wind Waker thing. And we'll dealing with the same principle in that case: selecting a sample of the population based on some non-random variable. We saw the differences in sample traits there. For pics the differences likely wouldn't be nearly as large—as you're selecting based on presentation, not sample characteristic—but similar principles hold.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Holy crap.

Tifa rocked that update by getting 58% of the vote. Sonic went from gaining 249 on the previous update to 94! She knocked off 34 votes.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

94 isn't that low for this time of the night.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

Has anyone got all the division X-stats so far?
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

Sonic went from gaining 249 on the previous update to 94!

Nah, updater missed an update and put them together in the previous one, he got more like 125 in the previous update.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

hey, check out Tifa. go Tifa!
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It is when you're plumetting from 240+ domination and your opponent doesn't even budge...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Ah, quite right. Mercy, I was about to say that drop off was absurd.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

Oh, okay. Forgot how damn finicky the updater can be around this time.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

KH, read my last post. >_>

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

Yep, lol.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

These votals ain't looking too shabby either, though today is Sunday.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

"You're trying to say that fanaticism/the concept of being a fan is a powerful force, and this is indeed true."

Yeah, now if only fanatism had one iota of influence in online marketing... then your comparison might hold some water.

"And it obvious that we are not discussing extreme differences in levels of performance."

Solid ****? That's extreme, is that not part of the pic factor discussion?

"Tifa's strength ain't gonna double, or something like that, no matter what."

I should hope not. Then again... apparently face CATS would double up eggplant CATS, so maybe we are talkign about that sort of extremity. I mean, hell, that is the level that pic-backers are taking it to.

"And monetary stake>fan stake."

Aren't you one of the people who insisted a mere two years ago that so few people were capable of winning any money that bracket voting was nearly non-existant? What then is a factor, if fanatasism is outdone by a non-factor like bracketing?

"Presentation influences money, thus it can influence favoritism; presentation has an effect on the direction that money flows,"

1, the presentation in terms of pics is a complete unknown when making a bracket. No one picks Bowser > Snake because they are guessing wildly that rd 4 will have sprites. The only thing influencing the people who have money at stake are perceptions of fanatisism, something that can't be quelched by variating pictures. 2, While image affects favoritism that is a factor complete sepperate from an individual picture. If Snake gets a bad picture in one match he doesn't suddenly lose fans forever. It seems to me you're presenting the cause as effect and effect as cause.

"and it has an effect on the way that poll votes would go."

No one has evidence enough to prove that. No one.

"Hmmm...actually I think that in many cases, they would be fairly equivalent."

I think you're nuts. I don't care which Sephiroth ceej puts up there, I'm voting for Sephiroth. Why? I'm a Seph fan. I don't care if ceej puts a picture of bare breasts up there (though I may be in the minority there), if the names are Vincent and Tifa I'm voting Vincent. Again, ceej would have to put the wrong picture up there to intice an actual fan to vote differently than otherwise... and most people have predetermined preferences in characters. If they like Dante they like him, and will vote for him as such.

"And the outcome of the pic scenario for those characters would likely depend a lot on the actual pictures used."

Right, because actually knowing one or the other wouldn't have an effect. Hell, I don't care how known/unknown those two are, you're better off taking the "first option" factor over the pic factor in picking that, should you not pick Tanner for simply being more well known.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Yep, about 1,000 higher than yesterday so far.

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.

who's expected to get the day vote here?
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- - -

Sonic will undoubtedly be the winner of the day vote.

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“What is it that is most precious to you, Cloud? I’ll enjoy stripping that from you!” – Sephiroth

"Actually stuff like that does happen in internet marketing"

Thank god this is a popularity contest, then, where fanbases clash in epic struggle to prove their tastes are better and that their character is the best.

"But this can't be verified without data."

For which there is nearly zero. So in otherwords pic factor is baseless speculation.

"Blah Blah Blah at the end of the post"

Yeah, except that you'd have to have somehting equivalent to a control subject to find that sort of thing out. When we have one of those in the contest you go ahead and comeback and we'll talk about the possibility of tracking the diffence of one pic to another for the same character if we can manage to negate the effect of things like day of week etc.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Finally someone let me out of my cage.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Tifa won an other update...
---
Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

I am bored, so I calculated all the divisions. I'm sure these have been done before somewhere, so if anyone's got 'em, double check.

Mario: 50.00
Zero: 37.14
Ryu Hayabusa: 27.48
Lloyd: 19.87
Joanna: 19.10
wesker: 18.01
Ness: 17.20
Carl Johnson: 15.43

Samus: 50.00
Ganondorf: 40.34
Auron: 37.03
Yuna: 31.30
Frog: 29.95
Riku: 28.95
Big Boss: 21.13
Yuri: 12.68

Solid Snake: 50.00
Zelda: 45.59
Vivi: 36.87
Sora: 34.74
Alucard: 31.02
Kratos: 27.60
Agent 47: 20.34
Manny: 15.91

Bowser: 50.00
Kirby: 47.88
Ryu: 41.02
Tidus: 40.55
Rikku: 36.33
Chun Li: 34.10
Cecil: 23.74
King: 22.27

Crono: 50.00
Master Chief: 38.71
DK: 38.10
Tommy: 29.15
Kefka: 28.49
Sam Fisher: 26.85
CATS: 24.13
Zidane: 23.28

Vincent: 50.00
Squall: 49.41
Dante: 46.00
Knuckles: 45.65
Magus: 44.86
Terra: 26.22
Geno: 24.86
Kerrigan: 21.00

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Hey what were the final results for yesterday's match?And the correct percentage,12,5% was good,I though that it would be lower than 10%.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

If we use 18% CATS, Crono hasn't dropped too much. But, with 13% Crono would be massively screwed. Maybe MC isn't as weak as we thought?
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

MC is nonlinear thanks to his huge fanbase / huge anti-fanbase. I avoid calculating anything through him if possible.
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Oh, and claiming that tracking where the votes come from is equivalent to tracking how people would vote based on pic factor alone is ridiculous. I don't think there's a man in this world that can sit down and negate the difference in votes based fan-trends to derive that sort of thing. Really, it'd be hard enough to find out voting trends of A > B > C and B > A > C from watching where the votes come from, then to eliminate actual preference to show when the pictures themselves had an effect with the absolute minimum information on the subject to begin with? Ceej isn't god, really.

Allow me to make this childlike in nature, "pictures, they have sway over votes", that's a fallacy.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Comments for each division...

Mushroom: LOL CJ in dead last. SFF is a terrible thing.

Zebes: Was *not* expecting Yuna > Frog, especially since Snake's whipping boy took out Yuna...

Gear: LOL Vivi > Sora

Dream: Tidus *boosted* based on Sp2k5 Bowser?!?!

Flood: Master Chief is the new Sephiroth. Oh, and CATS > Zidane is funny yet sad.

Devil: The name speaks for itself. Lots of great matchups to be found here, actually.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

Solid ****? That's extreme, is that not part of the pic factor discussion?

By extreme I meant orders of magnitude, which implies differences on the order of 2 times.

Solid ****/Frog sprite was very likely an extreme influence by our standards, but not by internet marketing ones.

And make no mistake, this is an internet marketing issue we're discussing, by definition. It is about the action that a consumer of an internet product takes. Internet marketing principles hold here; that's just the way these things work. It's about click management. What people click on while browsing the internet, is heavily influenced by presentation. It's one of the primary internet marketing issues. It's actually why Google is a multi-billion dollar company—nearly all their hundreds of millions in quarterly revenues are generating from users clicking on sponsored ads. And they have complex algorithms for selecting which ads are the ones they show (it isn't just the advertisers that are willing to pay more; it also depends heavily on whose ads result in the best performance, in terms of attracting clicks; and anyone with experience in this area knows that seemingly inconsequential changes, such as capitalizing a letter, can have very large changes in performance, and thus in ROI)

In this poll situation, the effects will not be as great in terms of scale as some other situation, say clicking on ads; but they will definitely exist


apparently face CATS would double up eggplant CATS

No, even that isn't close to double.

I can't decipher what your points 1 and 2 are trying to say.


I think you're nuts. I don't care which Sephiroth ceej puts up there, I'm voting for Sephiroth. Why? I'm a Seph fan. I don't care if ceej puts a picture of bare breasts up there (though I may be in the minority there), if the names are Vincent and Tifa I'm voting Vincent. Again, ceej would have to put the wrong picture up there to intice an actual fan to vote differently than otherwise... and most people have predetermined preferences in characters. If they like Dante they like him, and will vote for him as such

This doesn't conflict with what I said there. I was saying that with Link/Mario, both scenarios (only pics vs. only names) would likely result in similar results.


you're better off taking the "first option" factor over the pic factor in picking that

Actually I recall hearing about studies that showed the "bottom option" factor was what helped in internet polls, with the theory being this was because it is closer to the submit button. But that doesn't necessarily hold here, and I have no real purpose in mentioning it.


No one has evidence enough to prove that. No one.

Again, you are ONLY saying this because you have no experience working with anything of this sort. Your stance is borne purely of ignorance. As I said before, I can guarantee you'd find "evidence" of differences if the data were available. This is always the case when making changes in presentation on the internet that are of any note, especially with ones that deal with clicks. I know this from experience, and anybody else with experience in this matter would say the same thing.

And I think I've covered this subject pretty thoroughly, so I won't be saying any more.

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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Allow me to make this childlike in nature, "pictures, they have sway over votes", that's a fallacy.

I have elucidated on this enough, but this is exactly what is false without question. This is a statement that comes from lack of knowledge and inexperience, nothing more. It is simply wrong.

They do have sway over votes, without question, and in some circumstances far more than others; the utility is what is questionable.

Also, the utility of this "debate" is highly questionable ;)
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www.SC2K5.com
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and responses:

CJ being last: SFF rules for this occasion. that's just funny.

Yuna over Frog: this isn't really surprising to me..

Vivi > Sora: Snake/Sora SFF!!!!!! *gets shot*

Tidus boosting: Kirby looked strong as hell this year, maybe 1% below Bowser if you believe there was no SFF. looking at it that way, it's not that surprising.

MC deserves an entire post dedicated to him, but I'll say that I don't believe any values in this division besides TV and Kefka.

Devil Division: Knuckles/Dante/Magus being so close is awesome. this was an absolutely killer division. props to anyone who went 7 for 7. (oh, wait, no one did.)
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Tifa's dropping quite bad at the moment.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

Oh, and CATS > Zidane is funny yet sad.

Heh. I had no idea this was the case. I find Zidane's level of chumpitude very amusing.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

This is probably unreliable, but if Tifa drops in the same proportion from here as she did from this point in the Luigi match, she'll finish with about 43.7%.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

I think tifa has good chance to finish at 45 or so least
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- - -

since I'm number-obsessed today, here's what it looks like if she finishes with 43.7%:

Sonic: 50.00
Tifa: 43.70
Luigi: 40.76
Diablo: 31.45
KOS-MOS: 27.72
Kratos: 27.20
Jin: 23.85
Vyse: 19.17

yay for Jin > Vyse. I guess my saying Kratos = KOS-MOS was right... too bad I thought both would be a little higher.

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'Solid ****/Frog sprite was very likely an extreme influence by our standards, but not by internet marketing ones."

Thank god this is a popularity constest instead of marketing.

"And make no mistake, this is an internet marketing issue we're discussing, by definition."

If marketing was typically setup to ask "What do you like more. Coke or Pepsi?" instead of "Drink Coke!" I might believe you. Otherwise, that's mostly ridiculous. There are parallels, but this is at its essence nothing more than a popularity contest. Marketing isn't a popularity contest, it's a popularity creating device. Unless you think that Link is more popular now because he won last year you're tying two different things together because they have similarities, not because they are the same. I'm sorry, I don't call green "purple" just because they both have blue in them.

"It's about click management."

Those ads want you to click on them, these "ads" want you to decide which of two options you like better. Yes, there is a visual presentation, yes it's meant to draw your attention and lead you to follow through with a predescribed activity, but one is there only to draw your attention the other is there to get you to make a decission.

"In this poll situation, the effects will not be as great in terms of scale as some other situation, say clicking on ads; but they will definitely exist"

But in no way are they to the same degree because they are in no way the same thing.

"I can't decipher what your points 1 and 2 are trying to say."

Point one, we don't get to see the pics when making out brackets therefore it's a fallacy to say that monetary issues are influenced by pictures. We don't know what Snake will look like in round 4, when don't know what "ad" Ceej is going to put up, so our monetary concerns are fully backed by NAME VALUE.

Point two, image effects the popularity of a character, an given interpretation of a character does not overly influence the whole. People who like the moon as a whole rarely dislike it when it becomes a crecent moon. A single aspect of a character hardly constitutes people voting against a character they would otherwise support by the thousands. Fanatics are rarely that fickle.

"This doesn't conflict with what I said there. I was saying that with Link/Mario, both scenarios (only pics vs. only names) would likely result in similar results."

I interpeted that as "pictures are as important as names", what you're saying now seems opposite... that recognition is a whole and that each thing is just a piece of the puzzle. Frankly, however, if the latter is true then a piece such as, oh... a name (!!!) should clue people in pretty well, especially if people are already a fan of that character. Even if it doesn't, I still can't see pics being so extreme that one image of a character is strong enough to double another (CATS).


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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

"This is a statement that comes from lack of knowledge and inexperience, nothing more."

I know, but I'm having such fun with my first summer contest. Really, if I had seen a contest before this what are the chances that the extreme majority of matches would go pretty much exactly as planned or remain completely explainable regardless of pictures?
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Oh, and listen to some Gorillaz... jesus.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

To illustatrate:
"Oh my god, that's such a bad pic, I bet you could show that to a bajillion MGS players and only two would know it's snake" vs. OoT Zelda:
54.41% to 45.59%, Snake's favor.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

so who think we will have massive vote totals next year with all the stuff nintendo/square/konami are releasing
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What a 42 carat plonker you really are~del boy only fools and horses

No one, a massive plague will wipe out 1/3 of the world's population and trivial things such as popularity contests will be forgotten in the face of fighting for one's own survival.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.