Correct me if I'm wrong, but Tifa got less on Luigi than Yoshi got on Luigi. Ergo, Yoshi > Tifa and as long as Mega Man manages 55% tomorrow he's good.

I'd rather go through Laharl/Vyse as there's absolutely no SFF evolved. It's also possible that Luigi got a far bigger boost than Yoshi, although I wouldn't know why. Where there any games recently that had Luigi but not Yoshi?


Not that I actually believe that, but it's no more flawed than thinking Vyse/Laharl would be a 60/40 match if it was held again this year.

I'd think those 2 characters would remain rather constant, as opposed to the likes of Luigi who constantly get new games.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 75/88. Today: Sonic, tomorrow: Mega Man

Bah, now my post makes no sense.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.

Why? They're both fully playable in it.

I quickly deleted my post because I knew I could be wrong there. Too bad someone got to read it.

Meh, never been much of a platformer..
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 75/88. Today: Sonic, tomorrow: Mega Man

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Tifa got more on Vyse than Yoshi got on Laharl. I recall Vyse beating Laharl with around 60%.

Yes, and you see how much stock should be put into Tifa beating Laharl almost as badly as Cloud. I think people put too much stock into the performance of fodder. I really don't think there's that much difference between Vyse and Laharl when going against extremely popular characters. Especially since Laharl has gotten plenty of exposure on Gamefaqs in the last year due to simply being in the contest.

Again, I'm in wait and see mode as I won't totally judge Mega Man by his performance on Yoshi. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a 55-45 match to be honest... Although I certainly hope it's more...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Yes, and you see how much stock should be put into Tifa beating Laharl almost as badly as Cloud. I think people put too much stock into the performance of fodder. I really don't think there's that much difference between Vyse and Laharl when going against extremely popular characters. Especially since Laharl has gotten plenty of exposure on Gamefaqs in the last year due to simply being in the contest.

True, true.


Again, I'm in wait and see mode as I won't totally judge Mega Man by his performance on Yoshi. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a 55-45 match to be honest... Although I certainly hope it's more...

I wouldn't be surprised either.


I'm curious to see what Mega Man gets tomorrow, but I doubt his performance can make him the favourite for me.

---
even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 75/88. Today: Sonic, tomorrow: Mega Man

Well, if Mega Man breaks 60% tomorrow, he should be the favorite. For some reason, I wouldn't be overly surprised if he did, and yet I wouldn't be overly surprised with less than 55% either.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.

I thought there weren't any nominations at all in 2k2 and CJ just put whoever the hell he wanted in it...? I guess I was misinformed.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather."
- Slow Beef

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Well, it was just informal nominations through the Current Events board, if my memory serves me right.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.

Well, if Mega Man breaks 60% tomorrow, he should be the favorite. For some reason, I wouldn't be overly surprised if he did, and yet I wouldn't be overly surprised with less than 55% either.

Heh, same here. It's strange, but putting a range on Mega/Yoshi seems to naturally be much tougher than for Sonic/Tifa.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where _______ kicked my ass.

Anything below 53%, and Sonic's the favorite IMO. Anything above 59% and my money's on Mega Man. Anything in between is inconclusive.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!

let's get this to 500.

>_>


<_<



Wrong topic.

Uh, Sonic will beat Megaman! </pointless assumption>
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PH33R THE HANDGESTURE! http://handgesture.ytmnd.com/

Match 56: (1) Mega Man vs. (3) Yoshi

Past Performances

Mega Man

Summer 2005
Beat Conker, 76.02% - 23.98%
Beat Leon S. Kennedy, 64.56% - 35.44%

Win - Lose Record
12-3

Yoshi

Summer 2005
Beat Laharl, 73.66% - 26.34%
Beat Pac-Man, 72.83% - 27.17%

Win - Lose Record
5-2

Analysis

We have 3 more non-noble nine characters left and Yoshi is the first of the three. Can he beat Mega Man and beat the tradition? As much as I would like that, I don’t think Yoshi would even come close to beating Mega Man tomorrow. The noble 9 lives on for another match.

After Leon’s “bad” performance against Freeman he then breaks 35% on Mega Man. This doesn’t make Mega Man look so good, but before his match against Freeman most people thought he would get that percent. Don’t forget Half-Life 2 came out before the contest so Gordon probably got a boost. This still however puts the adjusted 20XX into question and for the characters that make the adjustment look like it was needed they probably just gained on their own. As for Yoshi, just like what many thought Yoshi overperformed against Pac-Man because of “old-school SFF” (I don’t know what to call it.).

Like I’ve said Freeman could’ve gained from Half-Life 2 plus also having the Half-Life symbol on his chest reminding people that he’s from Half-Life. I also feel that the 20XX adjustment wasn’t needed so that still puts him in danger of losing in the next round. We should know more about Mega Man’s ranking from this match.

Yoshi like most if not all Nintendo characters have gained for some weird reason. Using Luigi Yoshi could very well break 45% against Mega Man tomorrow, but I think he’ll fall closer to 40%. If Yoshi does end up failing to break 40%, he’ll be the only Nintendo character that hasn’t been SFF to fail to do so.

I’m expecting results to be very similar to Sonic/Tifa and with such a hyped match next round people will use any kind of numbers to justify whether Sonic or Mega Man is going to win next round.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mega Man over Yoshi

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man wins, 59.23% - 40.77%

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17 have challenged Nintendo in the handheld market, 17 have failed. (see quote for list)

Just a question: Where does Vincent/Squall rate on the all-time lowest percentage prediction list? I would think 12% is in the top five.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

It's #4, behind Cloud winning the 2003 contest, Super Smash Brothers Melee winning division 128, and StarCraft reaching the division 128 finals.

It is the lowest prediction percentage not under 10%, however.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.

1. Cloud over Sephiroth 2003: 6.00%
2. Super Smash Bros. Melee over StarCraft: 7.16%
3. StarCraft over The Wind Waker: 7.91%
4. Vincent over Squall: 12.47%
5. Link over Mario: 12.80%
6. Cloud over Link: 13.40%
7. Super Smash Bros. Melee over Final Fantasy X: 14.18%
8. Mega Man over Solid Snake 2003: 14.50%
9. Crono over Solid Snake: 14.60%
10. Diablo over Kefka: 14.76%

Coincidentally, those are all the PP under 15%, as well; SC/KH is #11 with 15.76%.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I was about to say that I didn't remember Kingdom Hearts's prediction percentage being so low against Soul Calibur, and then I remembered StarCraft, heh.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Devil Division Final: Lost to Vincent Valentine. Better luck next year.

I always list the winner in a match first; that's how I differentiate between KH/SC and SC/KH.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Hmm, I almost ended up getting half the 10 hardest to predict matches right. Thank you SSBM for winning and Solid Snake for losing.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

The ones I got right.

7. Super Smash Bros. Melee over Final Fantasy X: 14.18%
10. Diablo over Kefka: 14.76%

Hm, and here I was thinking Diablo/Kefka was my lowest PP correctly guessed.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

2. Super Smash Bros. Melee over StarCraft: 7.16%
8. Mega Man over Solid Snake 2003: 14.50%

I am surprised that for them to be 2-seeds in their division, their predicted percentage to take the division are so low... Of course both had overestimated GTA to contend with, but still...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

The only ones I got right were both of the ones concernign SSBM.

Heh. That's one time blatant fanboyism really helped me out.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!

The only one I got was MM/Snake.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

The lack of faith in Crono, even if it was so many years ago, disturbs me.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

1. Cloud over Sephiroth 2003: 6.00%
2. Super Smash Bros. Melee over StarCraft: 7.16%
3. StarCraft over The Wind Waker: 7.91%
4. Vincent over Squall: 12.47%
5. Link over Mario: 12.80%
6. Cloud over Link: 13.40%
7. Super Smash Bros. Melee over Final Fantasy X: 14.18%
8. Mega Man over Solid Snake 2003: 14.50%
9. Crono over Solid Snake: 14.60%
10. Diablo over Kefka: 14.76%

I got all of these right except for 1 and 6. *pats self on back*

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors

It's far more disturbing this year, when all he got thrown at him was a bunch of chumps and he can't even get 40% of the brackets to get him to the Elite 8.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

When his direct equal, Mario got 80% over someone who isn't a chump... yes, that's highly disturbing.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

I don't consider Zero or Master Chief to be chumps.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

Thinking on that... it leaves me with the impression that this year is actually more like 2k2. Really, the more I think about it the more the casuals remind me of 2k2... at least when comparing to their 2k3 counterparts.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Master Chief is a chump compared to someone with the power Crono wields.
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Zelos: Half the world's girls are destined to become my servants of love!
Presea: The probability of that is... infinitely close to zero.

Zero isn't a chump, MC is. He's casual bait every single year, and he kills off the uninformed in droves. Really, looks at the top 50 from when MC "won" over Crono... one person had MC winning and over half the leaderboard stayed up there despite that being a 4 point match. Knowledgable bracket makers know he's a chump that never had a shot at Crono to the same degree that they knew Zero had no shot at Mario.

His performance agaisnt Crono is as good as he'll ever get, and I consider the result to be rather fishy, considering. 40% of the field backing MC to take the division may have had something to do with that.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

1. Cloud over Sephiroth 2003: 6.00%
2. Super Smash Bros. Melee over StarCraft: 7.16%
3. StarCraft over The Wind Waker: 7.91%
4. Vincent over Squall: 12.47%
5. Link over Mario: 12.80%
6. Cloud over Link: 13.40%
7. Super Smash Bros. Melee over Final Fantasy X: 14.18%
8. Mega Man over Solid Snake 2003: 14.50%
9. Crono over Solid Snake: 14.60%
10. Diablo over Kefka: 14.76%

Why did you round both of Cloud's matches? Granted, it doesn't make a difference, but there's just something special about seeing Cloud over Link: 13.37% (Yes, that's the actual number.)
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

His performance agaisnt Crono is as good as he'll ever get, and I consider the result to be rather fishy, considering. 40% of the field backing MC to take the division may have had something to do with that.

I dunno. It's pretty damn hard for anyone to put Chief below 40% with his day vote. I'm pleased with how Crono did.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

They're rounded like that in cn's site; I have no idea why that is.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Mario would have kept MC's pp below 40.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Not very far below, I'd say. 63-37, tops.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

I say that keeping in mind that Zero came back on Mario almost as much as Chief on Crono.
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www.geocities.com/shdwdde/Fanfic/SC2K5CYOA
The Power is Yours.

You do realize there are other character's that get PP to take the division, right? Crono took 40, MC took 40 and the rest of the division took 20 when Mario had an equally difficult path and took a full 80.
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I once made a sig bet with TRE that Ganon wasn't actually over 31 on BL. The jury's still out on the pigman, but props to TRE 'cause I'm a believer again.

Heroic Mario: If Sonic is to win the contest, then Luigi would have to have gotten a gigantic boost to compete against Tifa.

If that's the case, wouldn't Mario have gotten a gigantic boost as well, thus allowing him to beat Sonic?
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"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle

I dunno. It's pretty damn hard for anyone to put Chief below 40% with his day vote. I'm pleased with how Crono did.

He's talking about his bracket percentage, not the percentage in his match. The matter of discussion is that it's baffling to see how Crono only has 40% of the brackets in that division when he clearly is the strongest in the division. Of course, that's mainly attributed to Master Chief, as the Chief himself had nearly 40% of the brackets.

That can be attributed to his overrated standing in last year's contest and the anticipation of Halo 2 putting him into the elites in terms of popularity, but anyone with any contest sense whatsoever should have known that Crono would take the division with ease. And no matter how popular Master Chief gets, I don't think he'll ever get the worldwide popularity of the top characters...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

So...is this match still on track to be the highest vote total so far?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

If that's the case, wouldn't Mario have gotten a gigantic boost as well, thus allowing him to beat Sonic?

Nope. It just means the masses are becoming aware that Luigi is the superior of the two brothers.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I wonder if Tifa will be able to push Sonic below 56% with the night vote?
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

So...is this match still on track to be the highest vote total so far?

Couple hundred behind Zero-Mario, but it will depend if the night vote sustains the day vote past or not.
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Vincent WILL break 60% on Dante.
(Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)

they've been at 57.25-4 for like 6hrs now gah! cmon sonic, pic this junk up!
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- - -

500 plz
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

SONIC!
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"[Zelos] clearly should be writing in his book of dark poetry and slitting his wrists with a cruxis crystal - meisnewbie

My bracket > yours
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

On Tails!
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"[Zelos] clearly should be writing in his book of dark poetry and slitting his wrists with a cruxis crystal - meisnewbie

There are three kinds of lies in this world: lies, damn lies, and lol x-stats.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener